He may be the second coming of Seattle Slew like his owner contends but he will be the favorite and deserving of a few knocks being thrown his way --
1) No Kentucky Derby winner has ever won with a misspelled name (I think) -- \"Pharaoh\" not Pharoah.
2) No Kentucky Derby winner has ever had Storm Cat blood.
3) No Kentucky Derby winner has ever won with all previous races having under 10 entrants (previous small fields).
4) Don\'t know if he can pass any horse not named Bridget\'s Big Luvy.
Strike:
I appreciate your courage and levity in a room mostly full of right brainers. Along with similar reasoning I will add knock 5) none of this years entries have ever won the Kentucky Derby. Yet I suspect the haves are more likely to contend than the have nots.
On the subject of AP, I am a little surprised that no one has gone off on him yet, so I will. The naysayers might be itching to vent.
Enough with the reasons. Mine is a simple viewpoint. Bob Baffert says something to the effect of - AP impresses him more than any other horse he has been around. I don\'t see this as 50 shades of Kentucky Derby. I will say what many have alluded to.
If one believes Bob Baffert is being disingenuous, or for the few who think they know better than Bob, the play is against AP otherwise AP is the key and will win in eye popping fashion.
Like many, I watched the Arkansas Derby with anticipation hoping to see AP rate which I deemed critical. What I thought I saw was a horse that looked anxious and uncomfortable chasing the leader even though lengths clear of those following him. He was going smoothly but I sensed an edge about him and as the race progressed I thought he moved too soon.
Then I watched the replay over and over looking for I don\'t know what but hoping to see something. What I saw was Mr. Z (whom most discount) make a very strong move. Far Right was stretching out and doing his best running. Espinoza made a decision to go and AP exploded. If the Horses following AP had not made their runs at that time I envision Espinoza having been even more patient. The moves from the closers seems to startle Victor (with no desire to get boxed he pushed go) but the acceleration at that point in the race awesome ... he\'s a freak! He has been professional. He will rate in the derby. He is capable of better than his last performance.
The politics of keeping AP and Dortmund separated no doubt difficult. Baffert has known what he has since last year and as insiders know; some news is so good it can not be kept a secret.
Of course post position, trip or mishap could derail him. But the way I see it only the most astute handicappers or the least will play against him. The only caveat being Thorograph\'s constant search for \"value\" could have said Secretariat was a play against in his derby while acknowledging he will probably win.
I suppose the \"astute players\" against AP in the derby have already hedged their don\'ts with a do triple crown winning proposition. I make no excuse for being one of that group TGJB identified a couple of weeks back as players who fall in love with their opinion. I\'m only occasionally visited by the qualities perspective and objectivity.
Please don\'t take me too seriously, I don\'t. Unfortunately, this is Just one of my opinions for the race. But to lead a parade I had to get out in front of the crowd.
5) He has a history of getting worked up pre-race. Many well-backed horses have lost in the post parade, maybe most notably Hansen.
6. He has a short tail, no derby winner had a tail less than 41 inches.
That has got to be a joke.
No horse has won with a blue tail either.
Here\'s a knock: Baffert is winless in four starts w/ horses off two preps. Point Given, 5th, was his best finished. The others are Indian Express, Lookin At Lucky and Chitu.
Three starts is his sweet spot: 11-2-1-2 (w/ a 4th, 5th & 6th for good measure).
Four starts: 9-1-2-0. He inherited War Emblem from another trainer. Cavonnier was his first Derby horse. Bodemeister didn\'t race at 2.
Very small sample size for Baffert. The 2 start angle has been superb in recent years of the Derby. I think it\'s a plus for AP even though hey may have backed their way into it with health issues on AP
The sample size is small because Baffert wants it that way. Two starts clearly are not his preferred MO.
It\'s one thing to skip a start by choice, quite another by necessity. The suspensory injury that knocked AP out of the Juvenile took a long time to come around.
Baffert likes his Derby horses wound tight. Two races in 7 months isn\'t real tight.
I did an impromptu study of all of Baffert\'s runners back to Cavonnier:
2 starts(prior to Derby)5 total, 1 top, 1 pair, 3 off/x
3 starts(prior to Derby)9 total, 3 top, 2 pair, 4 off/x
4+ starts(prior to Derby)8 total, 2 top, 0 pair, 7 off/x
This doesn\'t necessarily have to be accurate (I did it in 15 minutes) and it\'s also assuming Cavonnier ran a top in the Derby, though I couldn\'t find evidence.
Baffert\'s runners that ran a new top or a pair off of 2 starts were Chitu and Liaison.
Baffert\'s runners that ran a new top or a pair off of 3 starts were Silver Charm, Real Quiet, Prime Timber, Congaree, and Pioneerof The Nile.
Not sure this means anything as the sample size is small. Also, horses like Lookin At Lucky, General Callenge, and Captain Steve all suffered significant trouble in the race.
Maybe the key stat to take away from this is that Baffert\'s ideal preparation is to have 3 starts or less, which AP and Dortmund fit, of course. But, all trainers would prefer this, as well.
I\'ve got 11 Bafferts with 3 starts:
Silver Charm
Real Quiet
Indian Charlie
Prime Timber
Excellent Meeting
General Challenge
Captain Steve
Congaree
Pioneerof the Nile
Conveyance
Liaison
Only 4 w/ 2 starts: Chitu, Lucky, Indian Express and Point Given.
Can\'t see lumping the 2-start crowd in w/ the 3-starters. The best finish by a 2-starter was the distant 5th by Point Given.
vagrant Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Here\'s a knock: Baffert is winless in four starts
> w/ horses off two preps. Point Given, 5th, was his
> best finished. The others are Indian Express,
> Lookin At Lucky and Chitu.
>
> Three starts is his sweet spot: 11-2-1-2 (w/ a
> 4th, 5th & 6th for good measure).
>
> Four starts: 9-1-2-0. He inherited War Emblem from
> another trainer. Cavonnier was his first Derby
> horse. Bodemeister didn\'t race at 2.
Vagrant:
Good digging, but just to show that statistics are a starting point which
require further ciphering, Lookin at Lucky a) raced 5 times as a 2YO (once a
month between August and December) and b) drew the one post.
Thanks to Agastache for bringing things back to the Thoroverse.
To me the important numbers are A) 3/1 -- 7/2, AmPha\'s approximate post time
odds, and the fact that he will be taking a lot of action in the horizontals
and B) the numbers available to all which tell me two or three of these
are arguably faster than him.
Further further ciphering shows that Point Given raced six times between Aug. and Dec. of his 2YO season. Didn\'t matter. He was a short horse on D-day and ran like it.
Baffert planned to run PG in the San Rafael or Santa Catalina but scratched due to a minor physical problem. Point is, he wanted to give PG three preps.
I don\'t remember if there were similar circumstances in Lookin At Lucky\'s case. It\'s impossible to say what Lucky would\'ve done with a clean trip in the 2010, but it\'s dangerous to assume overmuch.
All we know for sure is that both Lucky and PG were monsters in the Preakness. PG clearly needed the race, imo. Lucky, who knows?
Either way, there\'s no denying that three preps has worked MUCH better than two in Baffert\'s case. There\'s also no denying that Pharoah has had only 2 races in 7 months -- which is not the Baffert MO -- and that both were easy from a competition standpoint.
I don\'t mean to steer the conversation away from the Thoroverse, but trainer patterns and such seem relevant too.
I think you have to be careful with this stuff. It\'s only a been a few years since they went to the points system, and that has changed how these trainers have to approach this race. Used to be if you won the BC Juvy or the Delta Jackpot or whatever they had enough graded stakes earnings to get in. So the trainer didn\'t need to run AT ALL at 3 if they didn\'t want to. Now they have to run, and if they don\'t win or take 2nd or 3rd a few times they don\'t get in. Mr. Z is a perfect example of this type of situation for this year.
Disagree with this. Point Given was not a short horse in KY Derby. He ran a hell of a race but got hung out wide on the first turn, jockey saw an opening along the rail on the backstretch so he moved too early into an extremely hot pace (fastest in history if I remember correctly) and Point Given had nothing left for the drive.
That\'s how I saw it at least.
My memory of that year says the track was very hard and fast. Not sure about the pace but Monarchos became the only horse besides Secretariat (and Sham) to run a sub-two-minute Derby.
Also, believe two preps was Bafffy\'s plan. Seem to recall him thinking that PG was a Triple Crown horse and wanted only two preps to have as much horse for the three races as possible. Won the Preakness, Belmont (and Travers) galloping.
What you say is true. Nevertheless, Point Given didn\'t finish like he was capable of finishing in peak form. He wound up nearly 7 lengths out of 3rd.
Maybe I\'m not getting what you\'re saying re: the points system, but it seems that the change has compelled trainers to considering running more, not less. Big 2YO earnings would allow a guy to coast into the field in years past. Now he\'s got to run to show that his horse\'s A+ form has carried over.
Nonetheless, it seems clear to me that Baffert prefers his horses to enter the Derby with plenty of race fitness. He\'s been far more likely to go with 4 preps than 2 preps.
I could be wrong, but I\'m not buying that he chose to run just two preps with Pharoah. Every time he\'s had a horse w/ elite 2YO form, he\'s scheduled three 3YO preps -- unless circumstances forbade doing so.
Pharoah might be so superduper that it won\'t matter, but Baffert is, by his standards, running a short horse. Probably could\'ve gotten away with it last year. But this year?
Dortmund had a fine 2YO season. He got three preps. Seems irrational to presume that Pharoah needed fewer, all things being equal.
No sir. The \"keeping him fresh for the TC\" stuff was post-scratch spin. He planned to run in one of the early San races and scratched out.
What\'s more, Baffert said the \"keeping him fresh for the TC\" plan was dumb. Only a fool takes the Kentucky Derby for granted.
When has he gotten worked up? At Oaklawn this year in both races he was pretty well behaved.
The excellent seminar last year confirmed what we had been seeing. That 2 or 3 preps are preferred. 2 preps had improved likelihood of a top and 3 preps were more likely to pair. The 2 prep model had more risk with a 50% chance of X
11 of 12 superfecta spots the last 3 years wemt to 2 or 3 prep horses. Don\'t have time to look further but the conclusions are obvious. Unfortunately this isn\'t that helpful since only 4 horses don\'t qualify this year.
AP is an underlay. There are a couple rested fast horses that fit the model this year.
Not sure I\'d count California Chrome as 3-prepper. That\'s more of a calendar fluke than anything. He took a break on Nov. 1 and raced 4 times before the Derby, starting Dec. 22.
I\'ve got General Challenge with 4.
Liaison had 3, but looks like he lost the rider in one, so I didn\'t count that start.
vagrant Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Here\'s a knock: Baffert is winless in four starts
> w/ horses off two preps. Point Given, 5th, was his
> best finished. The others are Indian Express,
> Lookin At Lucky and Chitu.
>
> Three starts is his sweet spot: 11-2-1-2 (w/ a
> 4th, 5th & 6th for good measure).
>
> Four starts: 9-1-2-0. He inherited War Emblem from
> another trainer. Cavonnier was his first Derby
> horse. Bodemeister didn\'t race at 2.
It has been pointed out elsewhere, but Lookin At Lucky\'s effort in the Derby cannot be viewed as a function of his preparation. The trouble he encountered was so severe that it would be unreasonable to have expected him to fire a normal effort.
Also, my recollection of Point Given\'s Derby could be flawed, but I recall that race having an absolutely insane pace....probably the fastest early derby ever...there were a bunch of confirmed front runners in there (it would be like there being three Groovies in one race).....while he wasn\'t on the pace, he was pretty close up and was very wide on the first turn....when adjusted for lost ground he may well have run the fastest mile ever in KY Derby history and it is hard to fault him for fading after such extreme early exertions. Again, I cannot see his preparation as the fault of the performance which seemed to me to be exemplary but pace compromised. Congaree did suffer the same early pressure and held better (although I am not sure who took the worst of the early pressure between the two of them.....those lanes wide in that first turn at the speed they were going had to truly extract noteworthy extra effort.)
His 1st race. That\'s like saying you\'re worried about your kid\'s 1st day on the school bus because he cried on a bus when he was an infant.
Good catch. I misread my own spreadsheet. Gen. Challenge had 4 starts.
That makes Baffert w/ 3 preps 10-2-1-2. 20% win, 50% ITM.
4 preps: 10-1-2-0. 10% win, 30% ITM.
Worth noting that his lone 4-start winner was War Emblem, who he inherited from another trainer.
2 preps is still 4-0-0-0-0.
Fair game to say Liaison had just 2 real starts. But he was prepared and entered for three. That\'s Baffert\'s aim w/ horses that have good 2YO form.
You recollection of the pace in Point Given\'s Derby is correct. However, I have a very hard time cutting PG slack over his performance given that Congaree finished well ahead of him despite being closer to the pace.
Whether PG\'s fade was due to insufficient conditioning can\'t be known for sure. Same thing with Lookin At Lucky. He definitely had early trouble, but it\'s optimistic to assume that a clean trip places him in the money. There\'s simply no way to know for sure. Gotta play the ball where it lies.
Also didn\'t baffert have an incredible hot streak for like 3 derbies in a row? I heard this was due to him being the first to use Glenbuterol when no one else had heard of it.
The pace was very fast for Point Givens derby. The track played extremely fast that day. Point given was really never looking like a winner on derby day. Needed more seasoning. Beat an extremely weak group in Santa Anita with few horses if I remember right.
Guess we broke the short tail jinx. Probably carried less weight with that short tail. Next let\'s break the blue tail jinx. Lol