Any early thoughts on pace as a way to separate these?
This has been my biggest stump so far..
I\'m guessing there could be up to 7 horses in the lead pack..
Post position will be a big deal..What if A.P gets far outside? Do you gun him to try to save ground on the turn? Other jocks keep him boxed outside?
Dortmund a big ol horse with good early pace figures worse situation is to get him boxed in.. Where do you place him?
My best guess is an honest pace 46 and change for the half then the splits will really pick up..
Like to hear others opinions.
No clue. And I\'m not going to bother trying to guess this year unless I know for a fact that connections plan to send. Who knows? I never saw Palace Malice going to the front two years ago.
I think there is a possibility that firing line goes. Just my opinion.
I was thinking Ocho or Dortmund
After Cassidy sent Ocho Ocho Ocho 6f\'s from the gate today and then stated he intends to blow him out 3f\'s Wed at CD, I\'m thinking they realize the only way for them to have a chance is to go W2W. I do think with Firing Line being fresh, if he is drawn inside he will have no choice and that could quicken things up even more.
Firing line last work he started behind 2 horses Stevens in the Irons.
Not really expecting that,but I may be wrong..
Many will be looking for forward position but not necessarily the lead unless they inherit it cheaply.
Should be a prop bet based on how the field will be positioned after the first quarter is run.
My thought this year on pace can be summed up in one word - fast. these are fast horses who go fast early and there is an abundance of those in the field. It would defy logic to assume that this one race they will all of a sudden decide to rate kindly and take back leaving one of \'em on the lead. I\'m playing for a pace collapse. One horse who i have a strong opinion on is Dortmound. My read is he just doesn\'t want other horses in front of him - ever. Which makes him a tough read IMO. He runs faster than his competition but outruns them every step of the way. Now, he will have early company up front and I\'m not convinced he can or will rate kindly. In a smaller field, say the Preakness, he would be a serious win candidate but in a 20 horse field - I just think there will be that outlier - like a Palace Malice - to challenge him early and cook his goose. Michael
If Ocho Ocho Ocho goes wire to wire in this field, I\'m gonna need a paper shredder. With equal posts, I see at least 7-8 horses that will outrun him to the turn.
In looking at the last 10 Derby races, there\'s not much to glean. I do notice that Kent D has shipped near the front twice with Brown and Stormello, not in the lead but within the top 4 at the turn.
Martin Garcia shipped to the front twice for Baffert with Chitu and Conveyance.
Castellanos in the top 5 on both Gemologist and Discreetly Mine.
Victor Espinoza way back on Sinister Minister and last year with Chrome.
Johnny V was near the front with Cowboy Cal and Verrazano.
Mike Smith shipped on top with both Palice Malice and Bode.
Luis Saez has been in the top 6 at the 2f call on both Falling Sky and Wildcat Red last year.
Leparoux with Cool Coal Man and Sedgfield, but that was 6-7 years ago.
Bejarano shipped with both Papa Clem and another one I don\'t remember in 2010.
We all know post draw, speed trapped on the inside, getting out clean can make or break half the field. Just last year I think there were about 8-10 trouble calls right out of the gate.
Just because a trainer is planning to ship doesn\'t mean the horses on the inside or outside don\'t bear in or out like last year with Wicked Strong.
I think Dortmund, Upstart, Materiality, Pharoah, Firing Line, Bolo, and a couple others are likely to be somewhere in the top 4-5 on the turn unless they have trouble when the bell rings. I doubt any of them would turn down the trip if they accidentally landed on the lead.
The horses in the second flight have a great shot to run big if a couple of tigers tie into each other at a real brisk pace. Its a total crap shoot and I couldn\'t take issue with anyone who has an opposing view.
I think most years, most jockeys will tell you its just a scramble out of the gate, try to secure some kind of path into the turn and then get straightened away on the backside before the horse and jockey can even take a relaxed breath.
The constant I\'ve used is which 5 are likely to be where they should be heading into the first turn and that\'s usually the 5-6 slowest breaking horses. At least they can start positioning and trying to pick off horses and still try to run their race.
This is probably my least favorite Derby in 10-15 years to wager on. So many good ones and even most of the 2nd tier horses are dangerous. Gonna take a helluva horse to win this thing. I\'m always mindful that 16 damn good 3 year olds aren\'t even gonna make the super. Looks awful tough to me, but I\'m taking my shots regardless.
Sorry for the whining.
The problem with the pace here is that everytime you hear that there is a lot of early speed the jocks and trainers hear the same thing and adjust strategy. The problem with this derby is that Baffert has two speedy horses. He will send one of them right to the lead and then try to slow the pace to a crawl. If that happens it could be a baffert baffert exacta.
I would hate to see this scenario but I have seen many jockeys and trainers screw up Kentucky derbies quite often. I think a horse like firing line has a chance to go wire to wire if he can get the lead. But rest assured baffert will be gunning for it.
A lot depends on post position. If Dort draws way inside, I would imagine he\'s going low 46\'s.
Remember when Balto Star and Songandaprayer drew 1 and 3? That\'s why they went :44.86 that year.
Would be shocked if Firing Line was sent. They\'ve been training this horse to rate (and he\'s been accepting) for a while now. Stevens will almost certainly have him off the pace.
pizzalove Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> The problem with this derby is that
> Baffert has two speedy horses. He will send one
> of them right to the lead and then try to slow the
> pace to a crawl.
>
Yeah, good luck with that one with this field.
I agree. I think an unfavorable post forces the hand on the early speed types.
I can\'t imagine rounding the turn with Dortmund on the inside, Pharoah in the middle and Firing Line 3 wide. Followed by Upstart, Materiality, Bolo just a length behind them. That\'s an awful lot of young talent facing each other in a fairly small space.
I know this isn\'t earth shattering or anything but the way AP glides to the lead in the Frontrunner makes me believe he will be sitting 1-3. His natural speed in a gallop seems to be just head & shoulders above the other speed types. I think the goal is to rate...but wouldn\'t be surprised if Victor just went for the wire job after the first turn a la Bode.
I won\'t disagree sek. I don\'t see Firing Line trying to go the front cause there\'s too many fast ones, but I know Stevens won\'t turn down a good early position if things are clean coming out of the gate.
The start is so chaotic that just obtaining a decent/good spot in the run up to the turn is a big advantage for most of the field.
I don\'t know if Smith tried to sent Palace to the front cause I haven\'t watched the race since it ran, but sometimes those horses get excited and just pull the jockey with them.
So many horses get jostled, bumped, checked out of the gate and then the contact running up to the turn, the best a jockey can hope for is get out clean and try to have the horse avoid contact.
Again, a very weak opinion on my part because none of us really know.
And the last wire to wire job in the Kentucky Derby on a fast track was when?
Pizza,
Little chance of slow early first part with many sent just to secure a spot and avoid being wide into first turn.Think Dortmund was in front by default and is not a confirmed wire type, whereas AP maybe is notwithstanding he sat off a run off horse last out in a much smaller field.
Top jockeys in this race with fast horses, think pace more apt to be fast than slow.If AP is really felt to be the second coming, think he goes hard and tries to get lead and wire or lay right off a horse.
Mike
Regarding pace -- now that American Pharaoh trailed one horse named Bridget\'s Big Luvy (!) at 38-1 in a first quarter in 22.3 -- he is now a declared rater by Baffert and many others and does not need the lead. I don\'t believe it. I agree Dortmund will try to get the lead and will probably succeed in very fast fractions. He wants the lead and cannot risk getting stopped along the way because he is so big.
My question is what will Baffert \"really\" want the 2 jocks to do? American Pharaoh may try to rate and maybe he can but jury is still very much out as far as I am concerned. Doubt they will cook each other but brother -- if Dortmund can\'t last and American Pharaoh can\'t really rate behind good horses -- any exotic bet will be very generous indeed.
they added blinkers to the horse for the race.
War Emblem, 2002.
I\'ll make a prediction that neither Carpe Diem or Upstart will be close to the pace. I can see all of these being ahead of them: Dort, AP, Firing Line, Materiality, Stanford, Mr Z, Ocho and Bolo. Haven\'t decided if this is good or bad but leaning bad since rough wide trips can happen ala Bc Juvy.
Wow, started this thread and went to a dinner for work. I\'ve quickly read through all of this and I guess what I see is a lot of the fastest horses like to run the same kind of race. Pace collapse seems like a real possibility. That said it\'s going to be hard to bite on some of the closers in here that seem slower going in and I also think it\'s possible one of the pacesetters will hang around in deep stretch. That is a fairly common \"race shape\" for the Derby. Bodemeister/I\'ll Have Another and...Closing Argument/Giacomo spring to mind.
Just watching the races I liked the move Frosted made. That looked like a Derby winning type move to me. Also...Mujathahib (sp?). I know all the knocks but he looked like he was really rockin late. If he learns how to change leads and gets something decent to eat he\'s a real possibility, and if he was first lasix I might be all done handicapping given the depth of the field and how much money I could blow through here.
After looking at the sheets and filtering through this pace string (I broke down today and bought them even though I swore I would wait) I have a few first impressions. If I have to pick between the Bafferts I like APharoah and not Dortmund. I like Frosted and Materiality. I liked Tencendur a little but seeing that pattern he will be outclassed on the front end and I don\'t think he\'s going to learn how to run differently. I can\'t quite decide on Carpe Diem. And given the pace possibilities IStar, Mujawhohah and...Far Right may be good \"unders.\"
Last thought for 2nite. Given how crappy Baffert does with horses on three weeks rest I may toss both of them even though it looked like Victor could have taken a nap at the end.
HP,
Agree with the early portion of your post. Your post was on the board for over an hour before the first guy tackled it. Its the type of subject where you can really get your ass handed to you by the crowd, because its all just opinions in a 20 horse field.
I also agree a guy can toss a lot of coin at this thing and either have a helluva hit or really get pasted because of the quality of depth.
I\'m guessing Stanford gets sent.
Good Luck,
Joe B
Another Baffert runner. Seems like his runners are need to lead types.e. g. Bodiemeister. This years field doesn\'t seem to be shaping up to have a wire to wire winner. That\'s also easily said as that occurs so infrequently.
Bodemeister almost won because he got an easy lead. The other speed horse in the race in another moment of derby brilliance decided not to go with him and bodemeister almost stole that race. That is what I worry about here. All the jocks and trainers hear is speed, speed, speed, and they all advise to keep their horses just off and then someone like AP gets and easy lead again and tries to slow it down. Hope and pray that doesn\'t happen but I am cutting my derby betting 25% because that is what I fear will happen.
Pizza,
Easy lead?? Bodemeister ran the 5 fastest splits in the history of the derby, 45 change 1.09 change
....tough crowd here.
Mike
Post draw will be huge as it may force some to get out quick and others to try to relax and get position, depending on where they are. It\'s hard for me to see anyone here getting an easy lead but I suppose anything is possible.
Not the fastest splits in history. Actually Bodemeister came out solid and was not challenged for the lead. First two fractions were fast but after that they were slower. ran the final 6 furlongs in 1:16+. did not deserve a derby win over weak derby field but almost stole it. Had Trinni horse got out like he was supposed to I wonder what would of happened.
This is absolutely wrong. Bode ran incredible. Didn\'t he go 45 109 or something insane like that and still draw away at the top of lane?
That was a day where no one passed anyone stretch all day, as I recall. But still...
Easy lead??
Agreed. Just because there wasn\'t a horse riding along beside him, doesn\'t mean it was \"easy\".
Maybe a better word to use than easy would be uncontested.
Bodemeister ran his guts out. Stupendous performance. Reminded me a lot of Closing Argument who attended a similar pace and turned in a totally underrated race, probably because people thought Giacomo was such a fluke winner.
I agree with Pizzalove. Whenever there is a ton of speed on paper and an early drag race seems inevitable, it rarely works out that way. The jockeys and trainers figure the same thing and plan to let everyone else burn themselves out. Obviously post draw will mean a lot, but I won\'t be surprised at all if it\'s a reasonable pace.
I just saw this in an article that came up on Yahoo.
DORTMUND - Earlier in his career, he stalked the pace and came from behind to win. \'\'The worst thing you can do is take him back and get him behind a wall of horses,\'\' Baffert said.
Go wide on the first turn? -)
HP,
That\'s true for many of these horses. You can\'t just take a front-running horse and decide, \"Oh, we\'ll sit back because the pace figures to be hot.\"
It doesn\'t work that way.
That\'s a good point sekrah. A lot of people were saying when everyone thinks there\'s a lot of speed they will be hesitant and take back. I agree with what you are saying, they are probably going to go because you can\'t take a horse out of his game and teach him something new in this particular race.
As MJellish posted several days ago- it\'s a waste of time trying to figure out who is going to do what.
Eternal Prince was going to eliminate any chance that Spend A Buck had. Sure he was.Class pace cannot be defined by pace numbers. The best horse will adapt to the situation.
Good Luck,
Joe B