TG and Beyer seem to agree on Wood. Does anyone know if Rags got the Wood correct or close to correct? Their board seems to imply they got it slow. As stated earlier I am sure they missed the Gazelle.
The Wood was legit fast on all credible data.Rags had it slower,figure probably dragged down by averaging in the Gazelle.
I\'m not in the office so can\'t look, but by memory, wouldn\'t averaging make the Wood faster?
I had same thought. Can you explain?
JB,
Dont know where you had the Gazelle,it was painfully slow, almost embarrassing. The Wood vs The Gazelle came up very fast if you made the variant off the 2 races at 9f and did not go totally off the horses.Wood figs tricky for me given the 2nd horse\'s figure, he\'s a rat I\'m very familar with.
From what you wrote before here about Rags not breaking out races but averaging same distance races it seemed that\'s the only way it could be slower.Did not see the Rags for the Gazelle but to my thinking that would be faster by the averaging,not the Wood.No idea what Rags did that day.
FWIW,Beyer and TG have the Wood the same, two other sources used have it a little slower and Rags has it the slowest converting all in the usual manner.
Mike
Now that I went back and refreshed my memory, it\'s worth noting there were hurricane level winds on Wood day, which for reasons previously discussed can play havoc with figure makers. I took some liberties-- if not, the Wood would have to be even faster or the Gazelle even slower.
Was tough day and because of that have trouble with the figs for the first two based on their prior races.
Again, I ADDED substantially compared to the Gazelle (about 3).
TGJB Wrote:
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> Now that I went back and refreshed my memory, it\'s
> worth noting there were hurricane level winds on
> Wood day, which for reasons previously discussed
> can play havoc with figure makers. I took some
> liberties-- if not, the Wood would have to be even
> faster or the Gazelle even slower.
Good to hear you took some liberties. 4 of the 7 runners collapsed, and the pace wasn\'t even fast.
There was a incredibly brutal wind that day. One of the reasons I opted to not to bet Aquaduct that day. Maybe those horses will be a step up derby day without the windy disadvantage.
joemama Wrote:
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> There was a incredibly brutal wind that day. One
> of the reasons I opted to not to bet Aquaduct that
> day. Maybe those horses will be a step up derby
> day without the windy disadvantage.
I read somewhere that the kickback was so bad the jocks feared for their lives.
Well that\'s a interesting take , that the jocks would fear the wind in addition to the fact that they were riding 1000 lb animals at 35 mph or so. But you know what, trying to put my shoes in a jockeys shoes, tons of kickback being accelerated by very high winds could present a very compromising position. The Wood Might be the race to key on. If it is if any of those horses run there will be good money for all. The Wood is overdue to produce something in the Kentucky Derby.
Just wanted to point out, last year\'s wood had huge winds in it too, and although Verrazano was obviously not himself on Derby Day, given he came back and ran a -4 later that summer and the graded placings/wins NI and Vyjack had later, numbers given that day seem to have held up pretty well.
Jake gave CC a 13 1/2 for the Gazelle, Frosted a 5 1/2.
Wood not far from TG. Gazelle is just crazy.
They used an average track speed, as Miff said. They must have the entire Gazelle field going back substantially, in a graded stake. Amazing how all those good fillies, who presumably were aimed for the race, all decided to run terrible at the same time.
Maybe it was really really windy when they ran that race. More windy than when the Wood went off. LOL.
May well have been. But I\'m pretty sure it was windy for all of them, and they would all look a lot better if you took off 3-4 points.
This all goes back to the assumption they make, we I discuss at length in Changing Track Speeds, that the track stays the same speed throughout the day. All else aside (by which I mean there is zero scientific basis for that assumption), the issue of tracks drying out due to wind comes into play on a day like that.
Pardon my visit to the deep end, seems those will be some tough patterns to make sense out of.
JB,
Spent a ton of time on Wood using 5 sources and did the day. Just can\'t trust the figs for that day. Too many things happened in the Gazelle(JB points out) but the Wood does not reconcile either. Can\'t buy the fast figs of the top 2 Wood finishers until they run back a couple of times. Based on the prior performances of the top two,just could not get them what they received.
On Rags, Comm Curve will enter the Oaks as one of the choices sporting a Beyer of 73 and a TG 10....not credible regardless of outcome.
Mike
Here\'s the Wood. But aren\'t you the guy who says to go by the teletimer? If I did that here and made the Wood slower, I would have to make the Gazelle even crazy slower than they did-- as it is I made the track (or wind or whatever) 3 1/2 slower for the Gazelle.
Yes for sure which is why I said the Gazelle and Wood just don\'t stand up as being that far apart raw, almost can\'t be imo.
Also, would bet my eyeballs that Tencendur has not run faster than 3-4 horses that have slower figs on your stuff.
JB,
I noticed on the attached you have the thoro-pattern running March through May. In the Derby package it\'s April - June. Was there a reason? It does give different results.
But it\'s not just the Gazelle that\'s an outlier. Look at the fastest 7f race, compared to Carter and Bayshore.
AJ,
Wood day makes little sense to me, even the one turners did not come up very clean imo. Insane wind reaps havoc with raw and all a fig maker can do is make a best effort. There were days at GP this year which fell into the same category.
F-k Wood day, it\'s probably gonna hurt me.
Mike
Those sheets are for a race run in early April.
That aside, those Thoro-Patters are basically for those who have no experience reading sheets. They are gross oversimplifications.
Thx. I will give them their due consideration.
Yeah. I will probably make up a few tickets with those figs as gospel, and leave the Wood horses out of the majority, as a result.
miff Wrote:
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> JB,
>
> Spent a ton of time on Wood using 5 sources and
> did the day. Just can\'t trust the figs for that
> day. Too many things happened in the Gazelle(JB
> points out) but the Wood does not reconcile
> either. Can\'t buy the fast figs of the top 2 Wood
> finishers until they run back a couple of times.
> Based on the prior performances of the top
> two,just could not get them what they received.
>
> On Rags, Comm Curve will enter the Oaks as one of
> the choices sporting a Beyer of 73 and a TG
> 10....not credible regardless of outcome.
>
>
> Mike
Mike --
I understand what you are saying here. And, you know a ton more about figure making than I do. However, in my experience, this is touching on where the real value in thorograph comes from. More times than not, when you are dealing with young horses that seem on thorograph to have run faster than you would have expected utilizing other data, thorograph is right and the other indicators are wrong. War Emblem is the classic example I remember where Thorograph had him getting fast before the other figuremakers. I may sound like Vito here (who, incidentally, I believe is a superb sheet reader), but I do not know how these things are made but if the numbers seem crazy in comparison to other indicators, I am going to go with the sheet over the other stuff because (a) experience has proven that to be a better choice and (b) usually when there are countervailing indicators, that is where you get a better price by choosing the signal over the noise.
So Cal,
Hear you, everyone has to go with their own interpretation and comfort zone. Last comment on Wood Day:
1. Can\'t make the top two in the Wood
2. Can\'t make a pair for El Kabir
3. Can\'t make Gazelle winner CC backing up only 1.25 from prior race.
Good luck!!
Mike
miff Wrote:
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> So Cal,
>
> Hear you, everyone has to go with their own
> interpretation and comfort zone. Last comment on
> Wood Day:
>
> 1. Can\'t make the top two in the Wood
>
> 2. Can\'t make a pair for El Kabir
>
> 3. Can\'t make Gazelle winner CC backing up only
> 1.25 from prior race.
>
> Good luck!!
>
> Mike
Sorry to beat a dead horse, but even if you add two points to all the horses in the Wood, Frosted still looks to me likely to run the same effort in the Derby. If he ran a -2, I would give him a pair up in the Derby. If he ran a zero, I would have him coming back to his 2yo top and forecast him to move forward to a -2. To each their own, but that is the way I see Frosted. Call me a Flake.
that is an excellant point, miff, can you throw out how much slower the top 2 should be in your eyes?
Just to avoid any confusion on this, I have about 50 races listed for review going as far back as early Feb, and the Wood is not one of them. It\'s right.
If you make it slower a) it would make even less sense with the day, and b) it would make less sense for the horses in that race. The winner was coming off a throat operation and only ran 2 points better than his 2yo top. Tencador (who I tried to get bought going into the race and bet that day) gets a new top no matter what you do, you can\'t match him to earlier figures. The rest would look worse.
JB,
It\'s not allowed that \"The rest would look worst\" Wtf does that even mean? Horses are supposed to \"look\" like what they ran, not pretty on the graph.
Mike
How do you determine \"what they ran\"?