in no particular order
frosted
materialty
upstart
nice lines, slighly slower
dortmond
carpe diem
Ap
firing line
danzig moon
side note, materialy 6 pts develpoment short time , not for me
dortmond, not for me
ap, Dosage sorry
Carpe diem, storm cats 0-44
If you don\'t like Materiality\'s improvement, you have to hate Danzig Moon. How can he move forward off of that! At least Frosted had that good 2 year old number to get back to.
If you are back on Carpe Diem \"big time\" how do you have such little regard for Danzig Moon? bbb
If you believe form is a constant (i.e they are cars) you can\'t.
There\'s a reason we put the figures on graphs.
My top 3 after a quick browse of the data:
1. AP
2. Frosted
3. Materiality
4. Tencendur (The Bomb)
Of those runners, AP has the best shot for improvement. Very hard to see Frosted and Tencendur not regressing (especially the latter) off the Wood. Wouldn\'t have pegged that race as being so strong. Makes El Kabeir worth at least looking at for the super.
AP obviously has a nice line, but he\'s not the fastest, and this will be his 3rd race in 49 days, also obviously rushed to get here. Lets say he\'s 40% to run the -2 that may win it, with all that\'s in the race, it may give him a 20% -25% to win, fair odds should be about 9-10 to 1
The problem I see with El Kabier is the Calvin factor. Instead of being 35-1, his odds will now be much lower.
I think the Calvin factor has slowly faded away. Ride on Curlin drifted up last year.
Ground saving 2 will probably get you in the super even with all of these negative #\'s going in.
yes, if you look at archives, a 1 will usually get you in the tri....depending on trip of course...I think most every year except smarty jones derby.
agree about Calvin factor, but if the horse hits the super, what difference does it make what his odds are. not a good enough reason to not include him, IMO, if you like him. if he should be 35-1 but is 20-1 instead, I am still throwing him in my exotics if I like him. would be pretty gutted to toss him because his odds \"should\" be better and he winds up getting 4th when you have 1,2 and 3.
Unfortunately the are a couple of horses that could run a ground saving 2. I expect at least that out of Far Right and to a lesser extent Star. Ticket starts to get real crowded (expensive).
So does the rail...
I don\'t disagree. My point is that there will be people who would never have used this horse, but now will because of Calvin. That potentially means amature\'s taking money out of my pocket and that is irritating:)
Not sure those people play exotics...
You are correct to an extent. However, it only takes a few extra people to use a particular horse in a tri box or super box to take hundreds or thousands out of one\'s pocket.
I like TGJB\'s point and believe the party people least likely to play the super. JB, wanting max payout is understandable in most cases. Unless it was that crazy pic 6.
Party money is in abundance @ the Kentucky Derby. Does it make the favorite? What does shape their opinion? I\'ve watched the big pools in Tokyo & Hong Kong and wonder how can so many people be right. Assuming it was the crowd!
jp702006 Wrote:
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> I don\'t disagree. My point is that there will be
> people who would never have used this horse, but
> now will because of Calvin. That potentially means
> amature\'s taking money out of my pocket and that
> is irritating:)
Yes, but lots of \"amateur\'s\" already contributing to the pool. You can\'t expect them to play only the worst tickets.
There will be plenty of money in the pools.
For every person who bets Calvin, there\'s 3 others who like Ocho Ocho Ocho because they are a Bengals fan, Stanford because they went to school there, War Story because there\'s always older guys who bet the \"War\" horses,
Ride On Curlin went from 15-1 ML to 17-1 last year with Calvin on.
I wouldn\'t spend one second worrying about what the amateurs are going to wager.
I\'d say even more prominent the last few years was all the money Rosie took on her mounts, especially on the huge days. Her mounts had much more diminished value than Borel.
Maybe that hard left turn from the parking lot that Borel took last year diminishes some of the \"Bo-Rail\" money.
What is a ground saving 2? I thought the numbers were calculated taking into effect, among other things, ground saved or lost. Isn\'t a 2 a 2? (I\'m asking).
Ground is built into the past numbers. But a horse that runs a 2 today on the rail both turns will beat a 2 in the 3 path both turns by 4 lengths.
This amateur appreciates your feedback. I think I just have a strong dislike for Borel at the Derby because of the money he has cost me over the years! LOL:)
Yep, thanks - understand that.
I was confused by prediction vs. historical. Thanks.
I believe the big money rules. How many small time bets does it take to make up for the big bets. What comes to my mind was the betting on the 2013 Derby when ORB won. This horse was sitting at something like 7,8 to 1 in the early wagering. It wasn\'t till late in the wagering that the horse got bet down to 9-2 or so. It took a ton of money to drop that horse down to those odds that late into the wagering. I don\'t know , what\'s the point?
That\'s funny man.
I remember having this exact debate with myself on Orb late that day. Few places had him at fixed odds around 6:1 half hour to post but my parimutuel place was offering +10% on win bets that day. Figured that would make up for any minor late drop in price (and if he didn\'t drop at all would be much ahead) so opted for the pools. Big mistake.
I was astounded at the late money that horse took to drop the odds from what they were. This was very late money and I don\'t believe it was $2 bettors.