Could he be the rabbit fly in the ointment. Owned by Zayat, who also owns Pharaoh, and trained by a man who doesn\'t need a lot of arm twisting to run one in the Derby. He could be sent in 45 and 4 and 109 or so and occupy a position on the track that only they all know where it will be and when its time to get out of the way.
This is the Derby. Honor and Glory was run as rabbit to blitz Unbridled Song. Spanish Chestnut trained by Biancone and owned by M Tabor did the same thing to Bellamy Road. This looks like a repeat to me....
This is exactly what I\'m talking about in my last post on another thread. I apologize but I know how TG makes figures, this is the kind of stuff I\'m interested in.
If you feel like this I would think of having a ex box and tri box with all the closers. Some big $$ closers.
Right. I\'ll go on record now, without seeing sheets, as liking MubT. I\'m not going to learn how to type that one for awhile.
He\'s off form. Doubt he makes the lead even if they try.
Good Luck,
Joe B
I suggest - Cheery
Funny thing is he\'s bred as well as any of them to go the distance. Watch him wire the Belmont.
Silver Charm Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Could he be the rabbit fly in the ointment. Owned
> by Zayat, who also owns Pharaoh, and trained by a
> man who doesn\'t need a lot of arm twisting to run
> one in the Derby. He could be sent in 45 and 4 and
> 109 or so and occupy a position on the track that
> only they all know where it will be and when its
> time to get out of the way.
>
> This is the Derby. Honor and Glory was run as
> rabbit to blitz Unbridled Song. Spanish Chestnut
> trained by Biancone and owned by M Tabor did the
> same thing to Bellamy Road. This looks like a
> repeat to me....
Why would the Zayat crew want a fast pace? Pharaoh is usually up close.. cant see sending as a rabbit
If they have the same instructions as the Ark Derby, which were don\'t go with AP, they\'ll stay behind him. Here\'s some quotes from Lukas:
On paper, Mr. Z looked like one of only a couple of horses with enough early speed to challenge American Pharoah. But Lukas said he told Baffert he would not send Mr. Z after American Pharoah.
\"I told Bob that I would not pressure him,\" he said. \"For two reasons. No. 1, it makes no sense from Mr. Zayat\'s point. No. 2, it would have been suicidal to do that.\"
But once turning for home, all bets were off. \"That\'s right,\" Lukas said with a laugh. \"When we loomed up on the outside, I said, \'C\'mon with him!\'\"
http://www.courier-journal.com/story/sports/horses/triple/derby/2015/04/14/kentucky-derby-wayne-lukas-says-american-pharoah-type-win-triple-crown/25760443/
Zayat has 3 horses. 3rd one being El Kabeir.
Any opinions on that last Lukas quote essentially saying you need to be a standout in a sub par year to win the TC? I do not particularly care for the current TC format, but my guess is one of these (I have no idea which) emerges from Kentucky as a true leader, and maybe the format works in the KD winner\'s favor this year as a few of these knock themselves out chasing the winner. Given the lack of depth in the TC prep races run so far, the point to the Belmont angle may not be a factor this year. We\'ll see, but I think this may finally be the year.
Then again, the poster who said watch this one wire the field in the Belmont may be right. My ADD doesn\'t allow me to delve into the super world, but I\'d pick him as my super crasher if I had to. With few in here that have any experience against large fields, perhaps his race experience in some large fields get him there.
Good luck to all
Mr. Z has earned the right to be here, but has no business in this race (or probably any race over a mile and 1/16th). Says something yet again about this field that a horse that has been in 11 straight stakes, and placed in 9 of them, has no shot whatsoever to hit the board (I\'d bet against the top 10, after today\'s work). Another 100 yards and he finishes behind Madefromlucky in Oaklawn. I\'m not knocking him. He\'ll be a millionaire with some G2 mile wins if managed well.
Regarding the TC, there are a couple on the bench that could pose a real challenge in the Preaknesss and Belmont. Welsch was asking for Blofeld\'s phone number after he outworked Palice Malice. Competitive Edge looks ready to go, and if we\'re hearing things right, Texas Red is going to start working (though it might be too soon for him).
Pretty much just flat out said this horse isn\'t good enough to win but they are gonna make it interesting for a while. Take that to mean they are sending him in some form or fashion. Mixing it up and looking for a place to park.
BTW Materiality was wheezing pretty good coming off the track from a routine gallop. For what it\'s worth!!
Thanks for the Materiality information.
Why would Zayat allow hopeless MR Z to \"make it interesting for awhile\"
likely to the detriment of American Pharoah? Sounds off the wall.
miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Why would Zayat allow hopeless MR Z to \"make it
> interesting for awhile\"
> likely to the detriment of American Pharoah?
> Sounds off the wall.
Exactly. The logical outcome would be for Mr. Z to scratch depending on the draw. Thatwould allow an AE in but everyone moves toward the rail (I think).
miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Why would Zayat allow hopeless MR Z to \"make it
> interesting for awhile\"
> likely to the detriment of American Pharoah?
> Sounds off the wall.
DWL won\'t let Zayat scratch.
richiebee Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> miff Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > Why would Zayat allow hopeless MR Z to \"make it
> > interesting for awhile\"
> > likely to the detriment of American Pharoah?
> > Sounds off the wall.
>
>
> DWL won\'t let Zayat scratch.
I do not think Zayat is shy about changing trainers. I think D Wayne was the beneficiary of that, so he has to know.
SoCal:
LUkas getting some decent stock, he could fire Zayat and not miss a beat...
Dont think he\'ll scratch Mr.Z unless Nick Zito begs him.No perfect system but several do not belong in here but got in off a suck up race or two in preps.A few never won more than one race, one a dirt maiden.
Scratching Mr Z and bringing in Frammento would still give us 20, so new moving in or out. However, scratching Mr. Z AND El Kabeir would possibly allow for 19 (assuming 21 enter), especially if American Pharoah draws a disadvantageous inside post. I believe they would move all runners out 1 post if 19 are to run.
Miff:
Lots of ways to improve the qualifying system, but we all love that full 20
runner field, and we always seem to get it.
It\'s hard to not drop Materiality down a tier right now. He is showing all the normal signs of a horse that just ran a new negative top that his body wasn\'t prepared for.
Between Lukas and Baffert they both have won a total of 7 Derbys. They know what it takes and how to get it done. If American Pharaoh can\'t lay an extra length or two off a hopeless rabbit then isn\'t nearly as good as everyone is hyping or hoping.
Mr Z didn\'t go to the track today. He rested. If goes out tomorrow and blows out then lookout.
I think in the last 15 years, Bennie Woolley is tied with Pletcher in Derby wins, in the last 15 years Woolley has more Derby wins that Baffert and D. Wayne combined.
They\'ll win some again, if they ever get some good stock.
Bafferts record with derby favorites not too good from memory.
Interesting seminar stuff on Baffert and Pletcher. Amazing what comes up when you ask the right questions.