Since I am new to the trainer profiles I am hoping someone can educate me a bit.
Looking at Smarty Jones\' sheet, his last race was 2 points slower than his previous race.
According to the trainer profile, am I to interpret that he has a 14% chance of running a new top on Derby Day?
And Tapit has a 60% chance of running a new top?
Casteldale a 64% of running a new top?
Thanks in advance
MO
There are a lot of other factors that affect how an individual horse will run, and all new tops are not created equal-- we had to find something that would give a large enough sample size when analyzing the TRAINER\'S tendencies. But what that stat should tell you, in theory, is what the trainer has done historically with horses off tops in a wide range of situations.
I say in theory because this is something new, and we are still taking the bugs out. For example, it should be obvious that Dickinson has had more than 15 situations where a horse is coming off a top-- the program wasn\'t working properly. We are fixing it, and will find a way to get the updates to everyone who downloaded the probables. There is also a problem with the rolling 3 month stats, and if any of you see
other flaws let us know.
On the larger issue-- we have something coming soon (in theory by the Derby, but I have my doubts) that will give you percentages of new tops, etc., of the pattern of the horse itself-- pair of tops followed by an off race on a May 3yo, for example.
Thanks Jerry.
JB, on the page explaining the fig-based trainer profiles what I noticed is that it says the statistics are based on tg figs from 1-1-98 to 12-31-03. Does that mean the figures do not reflect any data from this year? If so how often are they-will they be updated? Is this the set of stats your referring to as the rolling 3 month stats or are you referring to another set of stats.
Thanks
I\'ve been meaning to post on this subject for some time.
Let me start out by saying the Figure based trainer stats are quite interesting and inovative. But I have to believe that many of the categories contain gross discrepancies. A few examples from the Oaks/Derby sheets.
i.e. Dickinson: shows 696 starts in the stats but only 15 runners have raced following a 1pt/+ top with 60% new tops? Unlikely. Silver Charm can\'t sleep nights because of this stat! LOL
Zito has 2,248 runners in the stats but only 13 that raced after a 1pt/+ new top? Are we actually supposed to believe that? I\'m certain you can find more than that in Nick\'s 3yo horses this season.
I could go on, but you guys get the idea. What gives? Could we get a possible explanation?
Thanks.
As I said below, that is one of 2 categories that there are definitely problems with, and if you guys see others, tell us. When Alan gets in I\'ll have him answer about how often the stats get updated, but they definitely contain data from this year.
We are trying to do an awful lot of truly innovative stuff (some of which you see and will see, others that are internal, about how we make and check figures), in a very short time, and there are going to be glitches.
The future is here. Okay, maybe a few months away...
I just typed a chapter in a novel regarding Tapit moving forward and lost it to a stale page, so I\'m not gonna retype it..lol
I don\'t know what the true stats are on Dickenson, but I am certain that Tapit will be poised to move forward barring dislike of the track, injury, sickness, trouble or negatively reacting to the huge Churchill Crowd. The Wood took nothing out of that horse. If you\'re the least bit hesitant to bet Tapit off a fear he may not have more in him, thats a mistake. Whether its enough is another matter.
If he plays like he did in the Wood, he\'ll get beat even if he improves. Theres no margin for error with this group unless he\'s even better than he appears. I already think on professional running he\'s at least a length better. By my estimation he lost that or more with his Wood Gawking.
I was wrong about this horse, he\'s not a miler. That doesn\'t mean he\'ll win and I\'ll probably take a stand against him for the win, but I\'m expecting a bang up race out of him. Then again this may be the ideal spot for the \"Chaos\" theory of handicapping. The \"Nutbag\" perfecta box...Friends Lake and Tapit. :)
One last thought before I close this book: Its hard for me to hold Tapits relatively light schedule against him. I don\'t. I think the critical factors for him at least are going to be the huge field and his pace style (especially the one he showed in the Wood) and the Crowd. Its really hard to say how that crowd will impact him. So he has to overcome those two variables from my perspective.
Post Edited (04-22-04 13:36)
Does it matter that Tapit\'s 2 year old wins were (h?) handy wins? Watching replays of those races indicates that he won them very very easily, so how does one then interpret those numbers?
If Asmussen or Baffert or even Lukas in his day had that horse as a 2 year old, what would he have run -- negative numbers?
Trainer stats notwithstanding, a new top would certainly seem likely, given the fact that on the Thorograph Sire Profiles Puplit\'s offspring could be expected to move forward around three points from their 2 to 3 year old seasons -- so with that rough guide, Tapit running a 1 in the derby seems in the realm of possibility.
I agree with \"Chuckels\" previous post that the real question is will his move forward be enough?
Indedpendent of all other questions pertaining to this horse (and there are a lot, some of which you mentioned), I definitely don\'t buy into the gawking/looking around stuff, either with this horse or in general. Horses are exerting themselves to the point where it takes weeks to recover, and they are not strolling down the stretch looking at the scenery. I have had a related conversation with a number of guys who trained for me over the years, and I don\'t buy any of the mental excuses-- in my experience a physical issue always shows up, although it may take a while to reveal itself.
It looked to me like Tapit was trying to get in pretty seriously through the stretch, and the jock had to turn his head sideways to keep him straight. BI/BO with an experienced horse are usually the product of either exhaustion or an attempt to get off something that hurts. Which doesn\'t mean Michael can\'t get another big one, or even a forward move-- but if there is something wrong it won\'t be the first case of an owner or trainer forcing the issue to make the Derby, and as a general rule the connections don\'t say that\'s what they are doing.
I was waiting for you to comment on this...i\'m gonna look at the film again.
Good one Jerry.
What about bi/bo with an inexperienced horse? He hasn\'t run all that much. That\'s my only comeback, and it\'s not great. HP
I don\'t know. I\'m with TGJB generally on BI/BO its not a good thing for an \"experienced\" horse. When I saw Tapit\'s stretch drive I was convinced he had a serious problem. He was all over the track. Tapit bolts towards the rail the last two strides. You can\'t even see it unless you see the head on. Then someone said \"He did it in the Futurity too\" and I heard the connections say he had a crowd issue.
TJGB you may have more insight into Tapits physical status than you\'re lettin on. Theres something else. Although connections may not tell the truth about a horses little nicks and what the horse has to overcome, I can\'t say that I\'ve seen trainers behave like presidents and engage in a purposeful fraud to fool the public. Tapits connections are behaving like Tapit has a crowd issue:
\"Sitting in the backseat with a couple of reporters while his assistant Joan Wakefield drove, Dickinson screamed, \"Oh, no, they\'re too [bleeping] close,\" referring to the photographers.
At that moment, Dominguez pulled out the whip from his back pocket in anticipation of any sudden move Tapit might make. But, Tapit stayed focused on his task and completed the move without incident.
\"That should get him used to looking at a crowd,\" Dickinson said.
Said Dominguez: \"A furlong before I got to all the reporters he kind of looked at them, but he never stopped running at all, never overreacted by any means. I thought he handled it very well.\"\":
http://www.drf.com/tc/trail/2004/news.html
Maybe Dickenson doesn\'t know its a physical thing and not a crowd thing. I don\'t know, I state that seriously. Maybe he\'s fooling himself.
I watched the race again. The Jock snatches Tapits reigns in with his right hand first to pull him from behind the horse he initally bears in behind...he does it again and then gathers the reign in his right hand and he\'s the one pulling Tapits head. All that did result in loss of momentum and it may been more than a length. Tapit bolts to the rail as soon as the Jock eases the restraint from going left. I\'m embarrassed I let what trainers and connections say influence my ability to ascertain. He wasn\'t at the top of my list anyway, but I won\'t be as scared now.
thx tjgb
Post Edited (04-22-04 14:58)
CtC--
I agree with Jerry. TAPIT was bearing in due to exhaustion. He was in a drive from approx. the 3/8ths pole to the wire. Saying that TAPIT was gawking at the crowd is similar to saying you or I can attentively watch TV while running 8.5 MPH on a treadmill.
I still think he outran his PULPIT pedigree in the WOOD. He\'s a game, gutsy horse....but I think it\'s going to take a lot more to get the Roses.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
I\'m still embarrassed, I consider myself a pretty good trip handicapper and I let others influence what I saw. The thing that you have to keep in mind though is if he outran his pedigree and the reigning in cost him a length ( I think it did) what does say about the others he beat?
Michael and I are not exactly on chatting terms, and haven\'t been since the fall of Da Hoss\'s 4 year old year, so I don\'t have any inside info. On the question of inexperience, I doubt that is the case here-- I don\'t know that a horse who has run 4 times and been in training this long would qualify as inexperienced in any case, but especially not with Michael. He has them away from the track, and he preps them an awful lot, the European way. Always possible, but not likely.
But I\'ll say this-- if it was any one but Michael, the horse would be an automatic toss for me. With him, UNLESS THE OWNER IS CALLING THE SHOTS (as they did in the Fla Derby), it\'s a gray area.
He\'s a good trainer and I think the horse will probably be better prepared for this next race. Still, he was being factored significantly in my tentative bets (he was in second at least for me in some wagers) I would have given him a pass on the crowd and playing issue. I don\'t bet horses that are showing an inabilility to keep a straight course without legitimate excuse. I don\'t consider a relatively minor illness and time away a legitimate excuse.
Regarding the Bold Text, I don\'t think theres any doubt Mr. Winchell\'s son wants to run this particular horse in the Derby. It would make a nice story for Dad to win with the last horse he bought, but I think you\'re delving into the type of things that reveal a lot about this particular race.
Post Edited (04-22-04 15:58)
\"The foot is fine. Bet all you want.\"
Bobby Frankel
Overheard on his cell phone before leading Empire Maker over to run in last years Ky Derby.
Empire Maker finished third and only raced twice more in his career.
Trainer and sire data are updated on a daily basis but we do lag one day to ensure that we have all the results. For instance, today, Thursday, we\'re preparing Saturday products. Those products include trainer and sire data updated through this past Tuesday, except for Saturday draws which came in and were prepared earlier, such as Hollywood, which was prepared Wednesday and so includes trainer and sire data updated through last Monday.
The notation \"Statistics based on TG figures
from 1/1/98 through 12/31/03\", pertains to the table of averages for all trainers and should appropriately be placed under the table, but we don\'t have room there. We\'ll do some rearranging to eliminate the confusion.
There\'s a reason(s) behind Tapit starting off so late last year and only racing twice at 2. There\'s a reason(s) his first race this year wasen\'t until mid March. There\'s a reason(s) behind his bearing-in during the wood. There\'s a reason he wears front bandages and it\'s not for decoration. Add to that the respritory problems others in this field having run consistantly faster and the low odds. What more does a person need to eliminate with confidence.