that\'s no good
You have the better rider.
I just can\'t get the image of that ride he gave Normandy Invasion out of my head.
He rode NI like he thought the wire was at the top of the stretch.
JJ\'s dirt record at CD isn\'t stellar.
and Mike Smith is now riding Far Right
Jeez, what an odd turn of events
Come on. It\'s like wanting Kareem and getting \"stuck\" with Wilt? It\'s not a night and day difference is it? Do you think JV has seen CDiem recently? I don\'t know anything about how they do this.
hah, this is a great line
JV has been in KY so he didn\'t work him this weekend but he certainly knows how good he was in the Fla Derby.
FWIW Carpe Diem worked at Keeneland with John Velasquez 48ish big gallop out, TAP very pleased with work.
Johnny knows where his bread is buttered.
This horse is more proven than Materiality and is sitting on a TOP in my opinion. Has been training in Kentucky for a month or will have by Derby Day. Unless he draws a brutal post this is where my money is going.
Materiality reminds me of Pulpit....
Pulpit never raced after the Derby. Another enigma.
Seize the Day Jim.
http://www.seizethederby.com/
Guess you won\'t be buying the hat?
Solid comparison... Materiality n Pulpit.
Not sure what to make of the former, at least for May 2nd. Certainly, nothing wrong with playing an undefeated Grade One winner, at probable double digit odds.
Too much too soon?
As for Pulpit, he was bred to win the Derby ( not that every horse isn\'t) by Claiborne, as a son of A P Indy out of one of the best families in the stud book. Also a sophomore before starting at Gulfstream, exhibiting top shelf talent, both went on to win Grades ones as Derby preps (the Blue Grass was a grade two for a few years ?) and in the case of Pulpit he sure looked the Derby winner on the turn before injuring a knee and never racing again.
From there Pulpit has been a terrific stallion with about three dozen sons standing including the freak stud Tapit. He is the grandsire of California Chrome and recently became a chef de race.
With that written, hard to think of Materiality in Pulpits class, though their race records to this point are very similar. Really top notch horses this year doesn\'t make it any easier! He beat Upstart ( the biggest handicapping nightmare in Derby 2015)on the square and has worked lights out. ??? bbb
So, Upstart is Captain Bodgit?
Silver.
Curious what gives you confidence he is sitting on a new top?
He would have to run a huge new top to be competitive for the win on the tgs. Half the field has run faster than him.
What makes us think that kind of big top is coming?
Jim
I of course would like to see what Jerry assigned the Bluegrass but go back and watch that race and note the way CD is clicking off 12 second 1/8ths. I believe he ran 37 2/5 and 12 4/5. He has proven he all his route races that he ran sit back off the early pace. I have my doubts about others being able to do that. The Bluegrass was the second time I saw him in person, he\'s not a beast like Dortmund but does he need to be? A horse has to be fast enough to win the Derby yes, but that doesn\'t mean he has to own the fastest figure going into the Derby.
He ran a 1 and 3/4 at 2. I am assuming he has paired 0\'s or 1\'s so far this year since I don\'t have his figures. That is not a lot of development for a horse who physically looks the part. He hasn\'t been squeezed in either of these preps but surely will be on the 1st Saturday in May.
Broke his maiden going 5.5 and came back and won a solid baby stake at a route in a month. That\'s not easy to do. In the BC he shipped in late and broke almost last.....but stayed interested as a young horse and came from way back to get second with a solid 8W move. If they were all in on a big BC effort they would have shipped earlier but they weren\'t.
Im looking for something like this on Derby Day:
https://www.thorograph.com/archive/files/kd2006.pdf
Or even better something like this....
https://www.thorograph.com/archive/files/derby1997.pdf
If you want the fastest horse going into the Derby he isn\'t your horse. If you want the fastest one coming out, maybe just maybe he is.....Good Luck!!!
That\'s all well and good but there are 6 others faster going in another one just as fast.
So I ask again, what exactly have we seen that suggests he\'s going to leapfrog 7 others and run fast enough to win the race?
Maybe he can but other than people\'s gut feel and hope, what are we basing all of this on?
I\'m catching a hard time for making a case for the co fastest horse that is the 5th or 6th choice and yet everyone is pushing the 3rd choice that has 6 faster than him in the race?
Silver,
Thanks for the thoughts. Always love your views.
Not sure about the squeezing on him part
He had a very simple maintenance breeze by himself on Saturday.
He\'s a multiple grade 1 winner. A half in 48 with a good gallop out with no company isn\'t going to move hm forward. So unless we get a big work this weekend which isn\'t what Todd said to expect, I just don\'t know what it is that will move him forward?
He breezed much harder before the Bluegrass than he will between the derby and the bluegrass.
I think his mental and some physical issues are preventing this horse from running his best and I don\'t see a 130k crowd and a 20 horse field being the setting for a high strung horse with some stuff bugging him to move forward.
With that, I think I just guaranteed that he will wear the roses!!!
He hasn\'t been pressed hard enough, imo, to expect a big forward move in the hardest race of his life. Everything since the Juvenile has been easy. Easy races, easy works ... the Kentucky Derby isn\'t easy.
Who\'s giving you a hard time? You expected everyone to like the same horse?
Hey there is no flack from me for liking Materiality. I bet him Florida Derby Day. I think people are scared by the lack of seasoning and a \"what if\" scenario or two. Like what if he doesn\'t get the lead.
Materiality is listed at 12-1 and is fast. That\'s a good deal. Upstart is even faster and is like 15-1. That\'s an even better deal.
So I\'m partial to a horse who is listed at 10-1 and isn\'t as fast. Giants Causeway progeny get progressively faster with age from 2-5. Are faster as Colts and even faster at Routes. AND I like his line. That all I can say.
I believe that there will be more Paired Tops than ever. I know Jerry loves the Paired Tops. I am guessing as many as half the field could have Paired Tops. The fastest of those Paired Tops will be Carpe Diem.
\"The fastest of those Paired Tops will be Carpe Diem\"
....not a remote possibility.
By the definition we\'ve been using, with pair being last 2 races, I think he\'s right. There actually aren\'t that many this year, especially with the fastest horses.
That\'s way off all other figs I\'ve seen which are many.Carpe slowwwwwww everywhere.
Jim:
For NI that was the wire. Mile and a quarter a touch out of his range.
Get a sloppy track on Derby Day and you won\'t care who rides Materiality.
Good Luck,
Joe B
I believe all that are faster did not pair. I believe Jerry states that within a point is a pair.
Not everywhere else. I was told Carpe Diem 2nd fastest on rags. Only AP ARK Derby faster. Just saying...
Carpe needs a top and 6 others need to not match their current top for him to win, figuratively speaking.
Rags not credible imo, have not yet seen them. They have Dortmund\'s last a substantial backwards move....a joke.
Plenty of these fast on off tracks.
I get it. Holy Bull was a very fast race and Bluegrass wasn\'t. But it wasn\'t as slow as Beyer has it. No way, even aside from the weight
and ground loss.
How much do they have Dort going back?
Wonder what JB will have him at.
If rags has him going back substantially most of their users will be off Dort as their take will be he hasn\'t moved forward when he should have, unless he had a substantial move forward in San Felipe and the read is he got the bounce out of the way.
In any case, he\'s probably tough to use at his likely odds no matter which data you use.
How do you adjust for losing a shoe at the start?
Get another blacksmith? -)
Good stuff Silver. Thanks
Btw, Upstaet isn\'t faster than Materiality. They are same.
Both super fast. Upstart done it twice but Materiality hasn\'t reacted to a number yet.
Good Point
\"How much do they have Dort going back\"
MJ,
Rags had Dortmund 5.25 then 5 then 7.25 in the SA Derby
Also,have not seen all the Rags figs yet but unimaginable that they have Carpe Diem second fastest going in.
Mike
Jock moved on Normandy too early in the derby. The added distance was within his range it was just a poor ride. Need patience.
Anyone rally think Normandy had a chance of beating ORB that day ,early move or not?
Mike-- it\'s unlikely, but with their figures there is no such thing as unimaginable. Literally.
Yea, if he X\'s the Kool Aid drinkers will say, \"see he was going backwards\".
Jim, seriously, 5:00 A.M.???
You know I get very excited come derby time. I won\'t sleep well between now and derby day.
You need to drink more.
That\'s funny cause I was just thinking I need to drink less.
I agree
Havent had so much as a sip of beer in 6 weeks because trying to drop weight (I know this is a sacrilege Richie)
How do we think Oaks day is going to go given that its me and 7 buddies for a day trip to the Oaks from New Jersey.
I\'m concerned.
You need to start working up to it, get in drinking shape.
I have the same issue
Jim you need to drink lots of water. Not drinking beer will help you lose weight, but drinking the water will maximize your results. My wife is a nutritionist.
Yeap. Thanks!
I\'m doing 110 oz a day of water (half body weight in ounces)
Thanks for thoughts. Nice of you
\"Water? Never touch the stuff. Fish f--k in it.\" -- WC Fields.
The other way to go was something about him being all wet...
The Sicilian version is a goat won\'t even walk through it, why would I drink it per my grandfather. I guess in the old country goats avoided water or he really liked drinking red wine in the hot sun that much?
I\'ve enjoyed a few glasses myself reading the TG version of Derby Wars on a daily basis here!
Frank D.
And no eating late at night! Cut off food at seven. I dropped 12 pounds in a month without much effort at all. End of diet story.
This makes me think of jockeys. Those guys must go through hell. And I miss \"Luck.\" It was just getting good. Consoling myself by rolling through \"Louie\" on Netflix.
I watched a bunch of prep races on YouTube. How do you guys see the Baffert horses running against each other? They look similar style wise. Maybe it\'s hard to tell since they each had their own way in last, I didn\'t see their earlier races. Will he tell each owner what he\'s telling the other jock to do or is there a brick wall there? Would the owners talk to each other, just hanging out? It must take some diplomacy.