Derby Distance #s DRF BRIS This topic made me think of this.
Any opinions on the relevance of the whole dosage theory invented by Dr. Romans. There\'s a 12 page tutorial on his chef-de-race website which I couldn\'t get through without having a headache. He has some numbers divided into 5 categories. B, I , C, S, P. Then through some manipulation of these 5 categories he comes up with two other numbers called Dosage Index and Center of Distribution. Very confusing but supposedly a system of determining a horses propensity for being a sprinter type of horse as well as a distance type of runner. I always thought the higher the total of all the numbers would equate to a horse being able to run further as long as he had some numbers in the S and P categories. It seems looking at these numbers for this years derby contenders not many have numbers in these last 2 categories.. I don\'t know , does anyone find this info useful.All comments welcome and I won\'t take any of them personal. The tutorial is here: http://www.chef-de-race.com/tutorial/tutorial_title.htm
Horse/Dosage
American Pharo 4.33
Bolo 2.00
Carpe Diem 1.83
Danzig Moon 3.44
Dortmund 2.38
El Kabeir 3.57
Far Right 1.50
Firing Line 3.00
Frammento 3.50
Frosted 2.75
International S 4.09
Itsaknockout 1.29
Keen Ice 2.73
Madefromlucky 3.21
Materiality 2.33
Mr. Z 3.00
Mubtaahij 1.00
Ocho Ocho Ocho 2.11
One Lucky Dane 3.40
Stanford 3.36
Tencendur 3.00
Upstart 3.00
War Story 2.73
So if I understand this correctly, Ocho is supposed to have a better chance to get 1 1/4 than the ones with higher numbers?
AP and International Star both over 4.00 Dosage, just another reason to toss. As an old timer going back to the dosage years, should be interesting to see how these 2 run.
Dosage may be somewhat predictive of how far breeding indicates but not how fast they will get there.
AP a toss on Dosage, last year Cali Chrome had 3.26
Thunder Gulch at 4.00
Real Quiet at 5.33
Charismatic at 5.72 in the 90\'s.
These were Orb\'s number:DP 11-12-15-0-2, DI 3.21, CD 0.75. The total of the 5 categories is 40 which is a very high number. I just don\'t know how to interpret this stuff. When Count fleet won in 1943 his dosage numbers were DP 0-2-1-1-0, DI 1.67, CD 0.25.
Orb 11-12-15-0-2, DI 3.21, CD 0.75
Count Fleet 0-2-1-1-0, DI 1.67, CD 0.25
These numbers differ greatly. I\'m thinking the lower the DI and CD the better.
And the dosage numbers can change after the fact once they decide to rate a sire as it did for Stike The Gold. So now he qualifies when he didn\'t before the race
Among other issues with Dosage. Like eliminating any effect on pedigree females might have, and just using selected names among the sire, and assigning them subjective values.
As I once said on Post Time, most of us would agree that our mothers had something to do with how we turned out. For better or worse.
Ahh, the goal posts can be moved.
I hear Pletcher\'s horses outrun their dosage at GP. :)