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General Category => Ask the Experts => Topic started by: big18741 on April 19, 2015, 04:50:21 PM

Title: Maker Derby runners
Post by: big18741 on April 19, 2015, 04:50:21 PM
Gen A Rod        X
Harry Holiday    X
Vicar IT         X
Hansen           X
Derby Kitten     Off
Twinspired       X
Stately Victor   Off
Deans Kitten     X


International Star is a cool little horse but given that he might need a new top while saving ground just to crack the super this isn\'t very encouraging.He ran a flat 4th over the CD strip last year.
Title: Re: Maker Derby runners
Post by: touchgold on April 19, 2015, 04:57:59 PM
I thought maker struggled in derby. I wonder what his % is in breeders cup last few years? He could be another when 72 hour surveillance around his horses \"dont like the track\"
Title: Re: Maker Derby runners
Post by: smalltimer on April 19, 2015, 05:12:40 PM
Maker at Santa Anita all-time, 8-0-0-2.  In fairness, 5 of the 8 were double digit.  Both horses ran 3rd in 7f races.
Better success at CD, but I don\'t plan to research it.
Title: Re: Maker Derby runners
Post by: touchgold on April 19, 2015, 05:24:12 PM
thats great, thanks. Yes, i am sure hes much better at CD, but I bet not so good CD oaks and derby day stakes.
Title: Re: Maker Derby runners
Post by: Bet Twice on April 19, 2015, 05:37:42 PM
Yes, let\'s assume he is using something illicit based on minimal data.  Makes perfect sense.
Title: Re: Maker Derby runners
Post by: Agastache on April 19, 2015, 05:45:01 PM
I thought Maker won a Breeders Cup Dirt Mile at Santa Anita for Ramsey. Name escapes me.
Title: Re: Maker Derby runners
Post by: smalltimer on April 19, 2015, 06:10:42 PM
I think he won with Hansen in 2011 at Churchill.
Title: Re: Maker Derby runners
Post by: Agastache on April 19, 2015, 06:19:07 PM
Furthest Land-2009 at Santa Anita
Title: Re: Maker Derby runners
Post by: smalltimer on April 19, 2015, 06:28:50 PM
Correct.  I missed that one because it was at Santa Anita at Oak Tree and not Santa Anita designation.  He was 4-1-0-0 there.
Title: Re: Maker Derby runners
Post by: Molesap on April 19, 2015, 10:31:42 PM
Maker's Record on Oaks and Derby Days Only 2010-2014

I looked at Maker's record at CD on Oaks and Derby days only for the last 5 years. In that time, Maker was 38-5-2-0 (13.1% win and 18.4% in the money) for $530,326. In terms of just looking at wins and losses, his best year was 2013 where he was 6-2-2-0 and his worst one was the most recent where he was 9-0-0-0 (see below). Compare that to his record overall at CD from 2010 through today. He is 728-145-129-88 (19.9% win and 49.7 in the money) with earnings of $5,618,969.  

2010 = 10-1-0-0 for $48,456
2011 = 7-1-0-0 for $26,274
2012 = 6-1-0-0 for $210,813
2013 = 6-2-2-0 for $182,025
2014 = 9-0-0-0 for $62,758
Title: Re: Maker Derby runners
Post by: smalltimer on April 20, 2015, 03:43:27 AM
big,
I\'ve added the following to your list of Maker\'s Derby horses.  
Last track where the horse prepped, days between last prep and Derby result.
Looks like Maker has tried lots of changes to find the right formula.

General A Rod      (GP)   on 35 days rest, finished 11th
Harry\'s Holiday    (KEE)  on 21 days rest  finished 16th
Vicar\'s In Trouble (FG)   on 35 days rest, finished 19th
Hansen             (KEE)  on 21 days rest, finished  9th
Derby Kitten       (KEE)  on 14 days rest, finished 13th
Twinspired         (KEE)  on 21 days rest, finished 17th
Stately Victor     (KEE)  on 21 days rest, finished  8th
Dean\'s Kitten      (TP)   on 35 days rest, finished 14th


International Star will run on 35 days rest.
Title: Re: Maker Derby runners
Post by: SoCalMan2 on April 20, 2015, 06:20:43 AM
Agastache Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I thought Maker won a Breeders Cup Dirt Mile at
> Santa Anita for Ramsey. Name escapes me.


I think that was the dirt mile that was not run on dirt.  I forget the name of the surface it was run on, but it wasn\'t dirt.
Title: Re: Maker Derby runners
Post by: miff on April 20, 2015, 06:50:36 AM
Does a trainers record in the Derby/BC really matter if his horses had little chance going in?
Title: Re: Maker Derby runners
Post by: TGJB on April 20, 2015, 08:10:22 AM
No. And that\'s why % tops etc is much more important than win %, which can be a function of level of stock, type of stock (conditions), what races they write, field size...

In that whole Pletcher string the lead was completely buried-- in a post that showed his % of tops and pairs at all tracks. By memory, 57% tops and pairs at GP.
Title: Re: Maker Derby runners
Post by: miff on April 20, 2015, 08:50:39 AM
\"In that whole Pletcher string the lead was completely buried-- in a post that showed his % of tops and pairs at all tracks. By memory, 57% tops and pairs at GP\"


Equally buried in those stats are the countless 2yr old firsters that run off the screen at the Spa every year with big figs.Not counted as tops as there are no prior races.
Title: Re: Maker Derby runners
Post by: TGJB on April 20, 2015, 09:13:37 AM
Not counted when they do it at GP either.
Title: Re: Maker Derby runners
Post by: miff on April 20, 2015, 09:16:24 AM
JB,

It\'s early Monday. There are no 2yr old races at GP during the winter meet.

Mike
Title: Re: Maker Derby runners
Post by: TGJB on April 20, 2015, 09:20:49 AM
...and? There are 3yo first time starters, they don\'t count as tops either.
Title: Re: Maker Derby runners
Post by: TGJB on April 20, 2015, 09:24:15 AM
And by the way, the fact he gets them to run fast at Sar should make it TOUGHER for him to get tops out of them at GP.
Title: Re: Maker Derby runners
Post by: miff on April 20, 2015, 09:31:24 AM
and by the way....wrong, 2yr old tops are exceeded like 90% as horses turn 3yr olds at GP as with any trainer.
Title: Re: Maker Derby runners
Post by: TGJB on April 20, 2015, 09:34:38 AM
Yes, with most trainers. But if the trainer gets them ready-- and Pletcher does-- the number that improve  will be lower than average. So it\'s all the more remarkable that he would get those stats at GP. I mean, why not at Belmont?
Title: Re: Maker Derby runners
Post by: miff on April 20, 2015, 09:42:20 AM
Would think you would agree that TAP puts on his baby show mostly at the Spa where his wealthy ego buyers would like to win. I can tell you that he\'ll run a few ok ones at Belmont if they are really ready to go but SAVES the ones he likes most for the Spa.

We\'ll disagree that he is using,think his results are average given his wealth of stock, you have a different take.
Title: Re: Maker Derby runners
Post by: TGJB on April 20, 2015, 09:50:43 AM
Putting aside the question of \"using\", since the issues with Fla rules make for a lot of gray areas...

Yes, he points for Saratoga. But he still gets the best figures out of his horses at GP, on a percentage basis. That\'s my point.

I was talking about the Belmont Fall meet, by the way.

Pletcher\'s vet, as far as I know, is still Allday. And Allday said what he said to the JC. It\'s not simply me looking at sheets.
Title: Re: Maker Derby runners
Post by: miff on April 20, 2015, 09:58:58 AM
Think I heard Allday was totally involved with his LubriSyn line of equine products.Very doubtful he\'s the day to day guy for TAP, for sure not in NY or NJ, maybe at GP.
Title: Re: Maker Derby runners
Post by: Wrongly on April 20, 2015, 10:42:33 AM
Miff

I believe his daughter runs the daily side of the LubriSyn business.
Title: Re: Maker Derby runners
Post by: HP on April 20, 2015, 10:50:38 AM
Allday used to post on twitter about his clients, and I recall a few last year on treating Pletcher\'s horses and a few others.  He has stopped doing that, so either he is not really doing \"day to day\" work or perhaps his clients asked him to stop.
Title: Re: Maker Derby runners
Post by: miff on April 20, 2015, 10:56:48 AM
His practice was out of Kentucky, have no idea if he still has a daily type practice.
Title: Re: Maker Derby runners
Post by: magicnight on April 20, 2015, 11:11:51 AM
Nice to see a post from HP!

Allday has not tweeted his \"crowing\" tweets since 2013. He did have a tweet from 1/10/2014 where he talked about a busy six days running between GP and Palm Meadows.
Title: Re: Maker Derby runners
Post by: TGJB on April 20, 2015, 11:18:09 AM
So if we put what you and Miff said together, and assume everything is right, Allday is Pletcher\'s vet in Fla but not NY or Ky?

Hmmm...
Title: Re: Maker Derby runners
Post by: HP on April 20, 2015, 11:18:50 AM
Hi Magic - Mostly a reader these days.  I do remember those tweets.  

This is an interesting list, although I assume many here already know this.   Includes quite a few that I believe have run all-time best TG numbers.  

Dr. Allday\'s veterinary credentials include: Thoroughbred Horses of the Year (A.P. Indy 1992, Cigar 1995-1996,[3] Favorite Trick 1997, Point Given 2001 and Saint Liam 2005); Thirteen Triple Crown Race Winners (Summer Squall 1990 Preakness, Hansel 1991 Preakness and Belmont Stakes, A.P. Indy 1992 Belmont Stakes, Silver Charm 1997 Kentucky Derby and Preakness, Real Quiet 1998 Kentucky Derby and Preakness, Victory Gallop 1998 Belmont Stakes, Fusaichi Pegasus 2000 Kentucky Derby, Red Bullet 2000 Preakness, Point Given 2001 Preakness and Belmont Stakes, Empire Maker 2003 Belmont, Rags to Riches 2007 Belmont; Super Saver 2010 Kentucky Derby); Twentynine Breeders Cup Races winners: 2000 Macho Uno, War Chant, Kalonski, Perfect Sting, 2001 Squirtle Squirt, 2002 Starine, 2004 Ghostzapper, Ashado, Speightstown, 2005 Saint Liam, Silver Train, English Channel, Midnight Lute, Ginger Punch, Kip Deville, 2009 Tapitsfly, 2010 Uncle Mo,[4] More Than Real, and Pluck. Dr. Allday is also known for being flown in to help many notable horses such as Toccet[5] when they are unsure how safe they are to race.
Title: Re: Maker Derby runners
Post by: miff on April 20, 2015, 11:24:50 AM
It\'s spring, the Kool Aid is flowing.
Title: Re: Maker Derby runners
Post by: TGJB on April 20, 2015, 11:31:55 AM
As far as I know, Bill Baker was VG\'s vet.
Title: Re: Maker Derby runners
Post by: HP on April 20, 2015, 11:32:01 AM
The list is fact.  Interpeting what all this means is a different story and I respect other opinions.  He did a helluva job in 2004-5.  Quite a few ROCKETS in there.  I\'m into Snapple!
Title: Re: Maker Derby runners
Post by: TGJB on April 20, 2015, 11:32:38 AM
I add one and one, and you say two is Koolaid?
Title: Re: Maker Derby runners
Post by: miff on April 20, 2015, 11:38:08 AM
So lets play. The horses that HP listed were ALL injected with a magic illegal undetected PED and that\'s why they won.

...sounds like 1 and equals 3 over there.
Title: Re: Maker Derby runners
Post by: HP on April 20, 2015, 11:44:13 AM
For me it\'s a \"smoke\" and \"fire\" thing.  I\'m not edumucated enough to speak to it otherwise.  

I don\'t have any reason to think Jerry is lying about what Allday told the Jockey Club.  Do you think he\'s lying?  That\'s a \"straight from the horse\'s mouth\" thing.  

Dropping out now.  Good luck in the Derby to all.
Title: Re: Maker Derby runners
Post by: TGJB on April 20, 2015, 11:50:40 AM
That would indeed be 1 and 1 equaling 3.
Title: Re: Maker Derby runners
Post by: miff on April 20, 2015, 11:51:09 AM
So Allday allegedly said self incriminating stuff about what he was illegally doing and now continues, unabated,to do it today...got it
Title: Re: Maker Derby runners
Post by: TGJB on April 20, 2015, 12:01:05 PM
He, I, and everyone else who spoke to that group was told nothing they said would be used against them.
Title: Re: Maker Derby runners
Post by: HP on April 20, 2015, 12:32:00 PM
Just to clarify - so there is no \"allegedly.\"  He actually said these things.  And \"self incriminating\" isn\'t relevant because they told him they wouldn\'t go after him based on what he said.  

Last part is, and excuse my ignorance here, was what he was doing \"illegal\" at the time?  Breaking a specific rule?  Maybe it was illegal in some places but not others?  Grey area or explicitly barred?  And was there a difference of opinion about whether it was against the rule or not, or was it clear?  

Thanks and I apologize if you have addressed this already.
Title: Re: Maker Derby runners
Post by: smalltimer on April 20, 2015, 12:48:49 PM
I\'m watching this one from ringside and my scorecard has TGJB up 5 rounds to 4 in a hotly contested debate.  We just moved into the \"he said, he said\" portion of the bout but emotions are still held in check.
It\'s been an entertaining exchange of opinions, but it lacks the vitriol and contempt of the recent TGJB/Rags exchange.
Miff seemed to be tiring late in this bout, but now appears to be
re-invigorated after a between rounds visit from some guy they call Steve.
It\'s apparent from TGJB\'s frown that the cocktail provided by corner-man richiebee is tap water.  Richie assures TGJB it is T.A.P. water... TGJB smiles and nods in agreement.
The bell for Round 10...
Title: Re: Maker Derby runners
Post by: TGJB on April 20, 2015, 12:49:07 PM
I\'m not going to characterize what he said as self incriminating or doing something illegal. I repeated the chronology he had told a friend of mine, who had told me the conversation in detail within an hour of having it with Allday. As I have said here before, Allday talked about developing EPO use for Paulson, horses dying, using aspirin to thin the blood. Paulson dying, then  going to work for Byrne (the year he won 15 straight at CD and had the two champions), leaving Byrne to go to work for Stronach (Red Bullet), starting with the Dutrows, who introduced him to Frankel (2001), then starting with Pletcher (Left Bank, Left Bank dying, etc.). He had told that guy (and another poster here) that you no longer needed to use EPO, there were easier, cheaper ways.

So I told Janney, Phipps, Waldrop and 20 other people this at the end of my hour after telling them what needed to be done to stop illegal drug use, then left and came back to the office. I was sitting here at my desk when the phone rang, it was Alan Marzelli, who had the job Gagliano has now, and was the one who had invited me to the meeting. He said he hadn\'t told me, but they had Allday coming in 2 hours after me. He said they used what I told them as a map, and Allday admitted everything to them.

Was I in the room? No. I was just told it by the head of the JC, who heard it in a room with the Fortune 500.
Title: Re: Maker Derby runners
Post by: miff on April 20, 2015, 12:55:27 PM
All of which second handed info means precisely what as to TAP getting \"tops\" at Gulfstream, what bulls--t!
Title: Re: Maker Derby runners
Post by: TGJB on April 20, 2015, 01:01:24 PM
Under the circumstances-- two conversations with major industry figures, both within an hour of talking to Allday-- that\'s an amazing statement. You don\'t have to believe it, but it\'s not bulls--t. I was answering the man\'s question.
Title: Re: Maker Derby runners
Post by: Fairmount1 on April 20, 2015, 01:57:54 PM
HP WROTE:  Dr. Allday\'s veterinary credentials include: Thoroughbred Horses of the Year (A.P. Indy 1992, Cigar 1995-1996,[3] Favorite Trick 1997, Point Given 2001 and Saint Liam 2005); Thirteen Triple Crown Race Winners (Summer Squall 1990 Preakness, Hansel 1991 Preakness and Belmont Stakes, A.P. Indy 1992 Belmont Stakes, Silver Charm 1997 Kentucky Derby and Preakness, Real Quiet 1998 Kentucky Derby and Preakness, Victory Gallop 1998 Belmont Stakes, Fusaichi Pegasus 2000 Kentucky Derby, Red Bullet 2000 Preakness, Point Given 2001 Preakness and Belmont Stakes, Empire Maker 2003 Belmont, Rags to Riches 2007 Belmont; Super Saver 2010 Kentucky Derby); Twentynine Breeders Cup Races winners: 2000 Macho Uno, War Chant, Kalonski, Perfect Sting, 2001 Squirtle Squirt, 2002 Starine, 2004 Ghostzapper, Ashado, Speightstown, 2005 Saint Liam, Silver Train, English Channel,[iMidnight Lute, Ginger Punch, Kip Deville, 2009 Tapitsfly, 2010 Uncle Mo,[4] More Than Real, and Pluck.
___________________________________________


Let me get this straight.  Pletcher 8 for 148 in BC and Derby combined.  

And you listed the following 7 horses in that list as Allday horses:

Super Saver, Ashado, Speightsown, English Channel, Uncle Mo, Pluck, More Than Real.

The only BC/DERBY winner of Pletcher\'s not listed is Shanghai Bobby (maybe b/c the list hasn\'t been updated past 2010?).  

Real Simple.  Who are the vets for each of Pletcher\'s horses?  And Dickinson made it sound like this is becoming a chemist\'s game.

Who was Frankel\'s first BC winner?.....Squirtle Squirt 2001 (on the list).  Frankel 0 for 38 in BC before Squirt.  Starine won the following year in the BC.  Frankel didn\'t win the Derby in \'02 or \'03 but he had Medaglia d\'oro, Empire Maker, Peace Rules.  Glad to see he started to get some decent stock there.  Those first 38 must have been real bums that weren\'t bred for the distance or didn\'t like the surfaces they had run on.
Title: Re: Maker Derby runners
Post by: HP on April 20, 2015, 02:09:26 PM
Just to be clear, I did not make that list.  And I don\'t know about other horses and who the vets were.
Title: Re: Maker Derby runners
Post by: Bet Twice on April 20, 2015, 06:45:52 PM
The logic makes no sense....you are very vocal in saying Pletcher\'s record in the derby/BC is poor because he \"uses\" normally but can\'t do so in those cases because of the increased testing.  And now draw the conclusion that he only wins these same races when he uses the service of the vet whom you feel is notorious for the administration of illicit substances.  You can\'t really have it both ways.  It\'s interesting how the conspiracy theory evolves to serve your purpose.
Title: More Pletcher Stats
Post by: BitPlayer on April 20, 2015, 09:37:33 PM
TGJB -

There is more than one way to interpret the data in the earlier post.  Since Pletcher\'s stats at Tampa and FG were also good (albeit with smaller samples), one might argue that the effect is more calendar-related than GP-specific.

The real question relevant to the earlier thread is whether Pletcher has \"squeezed the lemon dry\" at GP (or in the winter months), so that his horses cannot run back to those figures in subsequent starts.  One way of examining that issue is to look at the 2014 Derby sheets in the archive and compare Pletcher with the other Derby trainers in terms of the performance of their 3yo\'s in April-June.  The following are those stats for trainers with a sample of over 100 (in order of finish position):

Sherman: 20% tops, 29% pairs
Stewart: 20%, 27%
Pletcher: 20%, 31%
Jerkens: 22%, 34%
Violette: 19%, 25%
Romans: 21%, 29%
Baffert: 23%, 30%
Maker: 22%, 25%
Sadler: 19%, 34%
Contessa: 17%, 27%
Asmussen: 17%, 25%
Garoffalo: 17%, 31%