First horse in 10 years to run in the Derby without Lasix.
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/91320/no-medication-for-mubtaahij-in-kentucky-derby
I\'ve heard they are not letting him eat his normal feed, which is a special formula. That might be a bigger concern than no Lasix.
What\'s up with the prohibition of the feed? Food and Drug violation of some sort?
Apparently, they won\'t let the feed into the country. Figure the connections use same recipe with fresh local ingredients. ref. Gordon Ramsey
Mubtaahij is an interesting study because we already know his entire sheet from the UAE recap Jerry provided us. At 1st glance he looks too slow. We know there are a lot of horses in here who are consistently & significantly faster than him. Is he forward moving? Yes, but how much more forward can he go in this race? Also, outside of Dubai he\'s an unknown factor. He was a slow horse on turf going 7f at Newmarket as a 2yo and he wasn\'t fast breaking his maiden in Dubai. Then he jumps up 4.75 points, moves forward another 2.25 points, pairs & then goes forward another .75 points. If he doesn\'t have at least another 3 point move in him with a complete change of scenery including quarantine, different feed & a track like he\'s never seen, he\'s got no chance.
Outside of his long distance breeding & trainer, why is anyone interested in him? He\'s my 1st toss.
this TR has had several he could have shipped previously and did not. the fact that he\'s bringing this one says a lot.
As the serious cappers hone their opinions and ratchet up their conviction, I reflect on the naive perspective.
Reminiscent of Taste of New York who combined with a couple of California (no faster than several other) derby contestants and (as a group) sort of ran away from all others in the Breeders Cup Classic.
To date one voice touting Mubtaahij (ACE) and he is biased. But the horses only knocks are 1) those who claim to know say international horses running for big money are slow, 2) the raw times in the desert don\'t compare to drought plagued Southern California.
So I consulted Steven Hawkins, who wanted to text about fabric and space also. In the end I became convinced time wasn\'t what I thought it was. I concluded Mubtaahij would probably be the horse running the fastest at the end of the race. I couldn\'t figure out where he would finish but I think that one quality gives him a big edge over most the others.
Since Toast Of New York didn\'t run last year I will most likely play Mubtaahij this year if I find out what the word means?
I guess your last statement begs the question, Do you want to find out what the name means?
By the way I\'m feeling very Mubtaahij!
Pretty funny.
If you bet him just hope the next day his name isn\'t in the dictionary under the following:
Mubtaahij v: To travel a long distance and find nothing but disappointment.
Now That\'s Really Funny!
Watching Country Music Awards or Secrets & Lies?
I\'m not touting anymore I\'m just waiting the next two weeks to see if my future book bet is destined for the recycle bin or not. I played what I think is a good value bet and am glad he\'s apparently going to be in the gate on May 2nd. Heck, my horse is now 55-1 in Vegas to win the Triple Crown, and I have him at 90 just to win the first leg. I have no interest in arguing with anyone here, as it will matter not and is a waste of energy. I\'m looking forward to a really interesting Derby with some outstanding horses this year. Can\'t wait to see the TG sheets and seminar, will print the sheets data so I can study on the airplane from John Wayne Orange County going to my niece\'s wedding in La Crosse, WI. Did I mention how I\'m upset with that girl for having the bad judgement of getting married on Derby Day?
Hopefully the wedding is in the early afternoon. You should at least be able to hit the hotel bar and catch the race.
The horse certainly looked good winning his races....can\'t speak to the quality of horses he faced and haven\'t seen his numbers but not a bad play at the odds you got him at.
that may be funny but you won\'t find that in any dictionary.
My nephew did that to me the year Big Brown won the derby,unwittingly but he did it. Wedding was in New Mexico and I managed to get my bet down before the festivities took place.
One more thing I did an X in my last marathon running 4:24 last August with a knee issue, my slowest time ever. Went back to the farm since and have worked through some other injuries but am back in training now and so far so good. Current pattern is Off-Pair-X. Next race late July 2015 with 11 months rest since my last. I\'m hoping for a new top.
Depending on your morning line, you might be worth a look on the bottom of the tri or super:)
Continued success in your rehab -- might I suggest some electro-shock wave
therapy and a few trips to the hyperbaric chamber? Maybe a nasal strip?
As I told you the last time you discussed your marathon efforts, I tried jogging
once, but the ice cubes kept flying out of my drink.
I will probably use Mubtaahij lightly in horizontal wagers, and wish you best of
luck with your future wager. Apparently Mub will be the first Derby runner in
many years to stand in the Derby gate without lasix; if he manages to beat this
relatively fast bunch of 3YOs without the benefit of the diuretic, the lasix
issue will be debated with renewed vigor.
\"As I told you the last time you discussed your marathon efforts, I tried jogging
once, but the ice cubes kept flying out of my drink.\"
another TG instant classic from Richiebee
thank you for making my day with this line
absolutely outstanding
It can\'t be an instant classic, just a classic classic. He used it before.
Hey I live in Kohler, Wisconsin and will be betting the race from Green Bay, WI. My daughter is graduating from college on Preakness day so that timing isn\'t much better. Her college is 40 minutes from where I wager so I have a chance.
Results of past Kentucky Derbies for foreign entries
2013 Lines of Battle 7th
2012 Daddy Long Legs 20th Post #1
2011 Master of Hounds 5th
2009 Regal Ransom 8th
Desert Party 14th
2003 Outta Here 7th
2002 Johannesburg 8th Post #1
Essence of Dubai 9th
Castle Gandolfo 12th
2001 Express Tour 8th
2000 China Visit 6th
Curule 7th
Didn\'t look before year 2000.
FYI.
I think Mubtaahij is better than any of the horses you listed. I don\'t necessarily think he can win, but I will be using him underneath. De Kock has sent a total of 6 horses to the US and all 6 have finished in the money.
yes, I have heard about the 6 for 6 in the money record. Actually think most of those finishes were win and place finishes. Maybe they can put a saddle on him.-)
yes, I have heard about the 6 for 6 in the money record. Actually think most of those finishes were win and place finishes.
Those were mostly/all turf races vs our very average turf horses.Mystery horse for sure, big distance breeding, undefeated on dirt, tough to gauge how fast or accomplished he really is.Looked good drubbing overmatched field in last off a perfect trip.Meets nasty group next Sat.
Acclimation a very tough read, some horses do it quickly,others need more time. No lasix another disadvantage.
I know they were all turf races. I think the point we need to ponder is that he appears to ship over here only when he feels he has a strong hand.
What scares me here is betting this horse for the \"win\". And this one is fast becoming the \"wise guy\" horse. Will have to see how the tote board looks.
Wiseguy designation is usually the kiss of death.
yep, been burned enough times with that one.
and to slow to win, and no 2 point Lasix move up to consider, way to many faster
I wonder what De Kock\'s horses were running previous to them running in the US and what type of improvement - if any - we can expect. Did his previous 6 horses - all of whom ran in the $ - pair/top/OFF in their first US starts?
Has the trainer, who is supposedly in the money all six of his shippers over here, won anything of any significance. Hope this one is the wise guy horse.
I don\'t have enough database to give a very good answer, but found some data that could be researched to see if horses ran tops or paired.
DeKock has had some runners. Most of us older guys remember Horse Chestnut winner of 10 of 11 career and 6 straight World Cups.
He also trained Asiatic Boy who won the Summer Cup 6 times.
Victory Moon was another who ran in 2009 in the Stephen Foster and the Suburban and ran 2nd in each race. In 2008 he was beaten in the Dubai World Cup by Curlin.
He had 3 turf outs at 10f. AP on 8-13-11 with River Jetez with Soumillon up and ran 3rd of 11 head,
He ran 10-16-11 at Woodbine, 10f on the turf with Hahbooba and ran 6 of 11 with Spencer up, and then ran again at AP on 8-17-13 with The Apache who ran 2nd of 13 head.
All 3 of those 10f turf horses went off at 7 1/2 to 1 or less.
Doesn\'t look like he ships unless he has a real runner.
Only one horse, that ran the 10f turf race ever ran with Lasix and he ran 3rd in that race at Arlington.
Since he\'s had some awful good ones, including those that can run on dirt, its funny he hasn\'t made a trip to the annual Kentucky Derby.
Yes, all over the world. We are talking about one of the top operations on the planet with these connections. Query the owner for an eye opening bio.
Smalltimer,
I am sold. This guy is obviously got some skills and I will give this horse a harder look and may even make him my main play. Thanx.
DeKock is suppose to be on the Steve Byk radio show this coming Tuesday. Maybe tune in to the show then or catch it in the archives.
Look who owns the horse. I would say you have to be a good trainer to work for that guy.
pizza,
Not my intention to sell or sway anyone on any horse in the race. I was just trying to find some info on how DeKock\'s horses shipped to the states, if they used Lasix, if they ran on dirt, and how they ran.
I think too many unknowns with the horse, and I would play more dough on the horse if he were 20/1+, the morning line of about 10/1 is no value with this group of bears to run against.
You can look at some You Tube Videos of Asiatic Boy, Horse Chestnut, Victory Moon running in top flight company. And he doesn\'t train \'em to not get the distance.
Its possible TGJB has data from the races I mentioned and can consider putting some sheets on the board for the guys to take a peek at.
Not that its likely to happen in this year\'s Derby, but in watching all of DeKock\'s really good ones, they tend to lay near the front of the group, with Asiatic Boy the one who came from a little further off.
Mub may get blown way off the first flight, may be pushed along faster than normal to try to keep up, and may have nothing left for the stretch. It\'s a crapshoot and at @ 10/1 with bunch, no bargain.
Good luck to all.
Maybe a way to look at 10 to 1 odds is that the horse is getting respect. No doubt the trainer is good and he ships all over the world for a world class operation. My only knock is not on the horse itself but how the foreigners have done in this race. But the horse has been here and is being given time to acclimate so....
joe,
10/1 is a sign of respect, but at the end of the day you look at Mub\'s sheet and you see 8-10 head faster, and a few a lot faster.
If they\'ll let him saunter along at 25.50 or a 26 second quarter, he\'s gonna come a running. I don\'t think we\'ve seen that type of quarter in the Derby.
He trains without horse shoes, he doesn\'t have the diet that he\'s been successful consuming, he\'s shipped thousands of miles, the trainer doesn\'t use the potential benefit of Lasix, the pace will be way faster than he\'s accustomed to. Lots of potential negatives for a 10/1 shot when there are so many \"proven\" performers.
Although, he did sit right off a 23.3 quarter when he was a 2 year old packing Derby weight, so who knows?
I\'d like to see more than 10 to 1. I think in the last future pool he went from 30 to 8 to 1 for what that\'s worth. 10 to 1 seems short but I think he\'s 15 to 1 or so when it\'s all said and done. Time will tell on that one. It seems like he won his Dubai distance races fairly easily. You never know how he will respond when pushed harder , he may just hold up , maybe even thrive on some better competition. One big known thing is that he can get the distance and most of the time half of them can\'t or don\'t in this race. Very interesting entry. Can\'t wait for the posts to be drawn, then go from there.
I think he will not be the wiseguy horse and he will be more than 20-1, unless he puts in some lightning works. In this field, with all the knocks, big players will be off him because of slower figs, can\'t win from Dubai, no lasix, etc.
More than 20-1, with all the foreign money coming down on him?
No chance, unless he trains horribly. And even then...
Well unless the owner buys a win ticket!
I\'m allowed to dream.
Go to the 2008 BC Archive and scroll to page 135 to see how Eagle Mountain did shipping for de Kock in the Turf that year: https://www.thorograph.com/archive/files/bc2008.pdf
If my memory serves me right Eagle Mountain took 2nd. I remember since I bet him. Now I will look it up.
Short answer- new top
Ace:
Short question.... 3 or 4 point new top?
3.25 new top (3.25 to 0). Was off a year and the BC race was second off the layoff....
Here is the thing that bothers me about this horse. His time of 1:58 and change for a distance that is short of a mile and three sixteenths. Wonder if he was just going up against bad competition.
This is such a tough call for me.
It was run like a turf race. Look at the splits - slow early fast late. The issue is how far back will he be, and who does he have to get around, when thar big kick comes? That won\'t be Super Saver on the lead.
I would love to see the splits but I cant find them. can you post any you have? Also where are the splits taken? Is it every 400 meters?
http://www.drf.com/news/mubtaahij-dominates-uae-derby-kentucky]
Some are here. No run-up
Trakus info with splits for World Cup night. UAE Derby was race 4. http://www.dubaiworldcup.com/race/racing-info/trakus-chart
A couple weeks ago I watched the simulated \"Aerial View\" that you can click on.
From the 1600 Meter point, which is 300 meters from the finish line, this dude explodes like Big Brown running past Gayego in the Preakness.
No question in the Dubai race, Mub had run 1:39.61 which puts him probably 12-15 lengths off a \"normal Derby run mile.\"
I can give you the difference in fractions or tell you how to convert from meters to yards or yards to meters. If anyone is interested I can explain the difference in the Meydan course and CD in terms of run to the turn, lengths of stretch, % of banking on turns and straightaway, etc.
I\'ll put a noise sheet out detailing the last 10 Derby mile splits. Other than Bode and High Fly the mile time hasn\'t been that much different from one year to the other.
Of the last 10 Derby\'s, the winner of the race, at the mile marker, has been anywhere from Big Brown on the lead, to Mine that Bird who was 8 lengths off.
Good luck
Article says \"faster than par\" and it was the second fastest time on this new surface, and if there is no run up that means that the clock is going to be slow vs. American times with run ups. I\'m good with TG figure/pattern. The last fig makes sense as I think he was on the rail quite a bit of the way around? Plus he wasn\'t that far back and I don\'t think he will be too far back here unless he gets a rotten post or bad out of the gate. The jock is pretty sharp. Bottom line is he needs a new top and the question is whether you believe he can do it. Let\'s see the tote!
In the 9th race in Dubai with California Chrome does anyone know how much weight these horses were carrying? Thank you,.
9 stones or 126#. 1 stone weighs 14#\'s
57 kgs
Ounces?
kilograms to ounces. multiply by 2.2, then multiple that number by 16
2,016
i see where you got the 2016 Ounces . But using 57 kilograms I got 2006.4 ounces.
For Afleet Alex fans . By Dick Jerardi.
http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/horse_racing/20150426_After_10_years__memories_of_Afleet_Alex_abound.html
We need to drop the weight question cause miff already weighed in.
smalltimer Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> A couple weeks ago I watched the simulated \"Aerial
> View\" that you can click on.
> From the 1600 Meter point, which is 300 meters
> from the finish line, this dude explodes like Big
> Brown running past Gayego in the Preakness.
> No question in the Dubai race, Mub had run 1:39.61
> which puts him probably 12-15 lengths off a
> \"normal Derby run mile.\"
>
> I can give you the difference in fractions or tell
> you how to convert from meters to yards or yards
> to meters. If anyone is interested I can explain
> the difference in the Meydan course and CD in
> terms of run to the turn, lengths of stretch, % of
> banking on turns and straightaway, etc.
>
> I\'ll put a noise sheet out detailing the last 10
> Derby mile splits. Other than Bode and High Fly
> the mile time hasn\'t been that much different from
> one year to the other.
>
>
> Of the last 10 Derby\'s, the winner of the race, at
> the mile marker, has been anywhere from Big Brown
> on the lead, to Mine that Bird who was 8 lengths
> off.
>
> Good luck
Curious if you were able to calculate his closing time/fractions. If so, I\'d love to know what it was. Thanks.
I think the time is secondary to the way the race was run. Slow fractions and Mub was just off the pace, the Derby will be way faster. If they force the horse (if he can) closer to the pace, what does he have left when they get to the stretch?
American Pharoah cruised in by a wide margin and nobody knows how much faster he might have come home had a horse been 1/4 length off and pushing. Faster, maybe quite a bit faster.
It might be a result of a weak field in Dubai, but Mub has instant acceleration, that might be as a result of the two horses in front of him having nothing left. He also runs on the wrong lead in the stretch, so that\'s not a good thing. By some chance, if he suddenly changes leads, he probably has another gear or two.
He looks like he will definitely get the distance unless the jockey has to force him along into a fast pace and empties him a lot earlier than normal.
He\'s had that really long trip, then the van from Arlington just to get to the venue. How much did that take out of him? DeKock, the trainer thinks very little since he is used to shipping 12-16 hours in a van to get somewhere.
The horse hasn\'t been on his normal diet since he left Dubai, that should make some difference.
Art Sherman (Chrome) said the surface is similar to Churchill and the horse has had no issue with kickback. The trainer confirms that. Sherman also said Mub was the real deal. Could be trainer talk.
I\'m intrigued cause the horse never trains with shoes on so that\'s a positive. DeKock said he never works Mub in company cause he is way too competitive. DeKock also said Mub is a superstar. Take it for what its worth.
I think the fractions in that race in relationship to the fractions on Saturday are of little importance.
Mub may run up the track, he may be a factor. If you like him, play him, if not then exclude him.
Unless the jockey really misjudges the pace this horse is gonna run forever. If he switches leads out of the blue and he\'s within range, he\'s represents a threat.
I told my wife, if this horse gets a decent trip he is really gonna be running at the finish line, problem is there may be a half dozen horses already there waiting on him. LOL
Total guess on my part where he fits.
TG of 3 was a small improvement while under wraps, failure to switch leads, who knows maybe he already run his best race, maybe he has a lot more.
No Lasix. At 10/1 or so I\'ll use him in some exotics, but I\'m using lots of others too. He\'s a likely underlay. If he happens to run big, people will start referring to him by his real name. LOL
I\'m glad the horse is in the race, adds some extra chatter and with AP getting a ton of ink it just creates a bit more excitement.
I think DeKock knows he\'s a good one among a bunch of other good ones.
I\'ll just wager my opinion.
Good luck.