From reading articles, I understand that American Pharoah lost his first race because he freaked out first time he saw a crowd and basically poured out all his energy before the race started. My question is this -- if the Derby Day crowd were to instigate the same sort of meltdown, would those of us out here know about it? What is the best way to find out if he is having a melt down? I feel like I will need to enter two different sets of bets and then cancel one set depending on whether he melts down or not. Is this a crazy viewpoint? It seems to me he either runs his race and wins.....or he doesn\'t run his race and then this race becomes much more wide open.
well, i think there were 67,000 in attendance at oaklawn and he held up well. Yes its not 150k, but its surely more than his first race.
The best way if you\'re home is to follow multiple feeds from the track. You can watch the track feed on your computer & the Network feed on TV & hope you get to see enough of him.
If it happened once as a 2yo in his 1st start & was a one time thing, I wouldn\'t be too concerned. Now I know it\'s the crazy story time of year but one thing I heard on a broadcast or read somewhere was they had a nasal strip on him in his debut & he hated it & that was one of the reasons he freaked out. Ever since he\'s run without a nasal strip.
Another thing is find someone who is in the paddock using twitter. Surely there will be someone, Katon Bradar , Donna Barton Brothers.
heard that AP reacted to a nose bandage his first race-and BB never used it again on him. don\'t know if that is true or not.
On another note, I was reading about AP\'s arrival in CD this week and the picture of him to me looked really bad! chest was very well developed but his hind QTRS looked tucked in and gaunt. Granted this picture could have been from a bad angle and such but the picture I found of him at the Arkansas Derby looked different. In the Ark. Derby picture he looked very good and filled out. So is it just me or has anyone else noticed this picture of his arrival at CD?
He\'s already lost weight. He did so after the rebel too, but put it back on quickly. I wouldn\'t read too much into that photo unless he doesn\'t come out of his last work well or trains poorly the final week. Remember, they\'ve been playing catch up with him. 6 works in 5 weeks to get ready for Rebel. Then two more works and a race at 1 1/8 over the next 4 weeks.
I wouldn\'t expect Baffert to do much with him between now and Derby. But this is a good work horse who everyone raves about in the am. So if they aren\'t raving about how he acts in the am the final week and he doesn\'t put the weight back on that would be telling, IMO.
Regardless, unless he really wows me between now and then, I\'m leaning towards letting him beat me in louisville figuring if he wins there he\'s likely to bounce in Preakness as heavy odds on favorite and I can hopefully recoup my money then. I know that\'s pre mature. But it\'s giving me the confidence to play against him here.
Tough, contentious race. Can\'t bet them all.
Here\'s a video. Expert horse viewers, what do you think?
http://www.wave3.com/clip/11386677/american-pharoah-arrives
Sorry for the 30 second commercial in the video. Best view is right after the return to Pharoah at the end after the interview.
EDIT: I don\'t know what is wrong with the link, it works for me on my desktop but on my I-Pad it doesn\'t. Please go to my subsequent post for a better video link.
toppled Wrote:
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> Here\'s a video. Expert horse viewers, what do you
> think?
>
> http://www.wave3.com/clip/11386677/american-pharoa
> h-
>
> Sorry for the 30 second commercial in the video.
> Best view is right after the return to Pharoah at
> the end after the interview.
All i saw is somerhing about tickets being hard to come by. I had a hard time focusing on that video. Wow.
Sorry for the problem. It worked for me right after I posted it , but here\'s a much better vidhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J7fR6I-whegeo.
Another terrific post in a several year long string, from me congrats MJ!
For me, \"pharaoh\" horse lays all over this bunch. From the buyback forward the barn was enthused! Rated remarkably kindly in Hot Springs. Easy to project the roses here, yet, as often in this heat, the horse to beat, and, the horse to bet are ....bbb
Depends who\'s is looking.This morning from a clocker at CD:
\"American Pharaoh on track making a very nice early impression\"
From the horseracenation clip he looks smart, bright, and fit. From the WAVE clip he can look a little under weight.
Very strange. Lends credence to the old saying that beauty is in the eye of the beholder.
This is where Covello brings added value. He\'s our Maggie Wolfendale, except even better looking.
omg
This line is an ESPN instant classic JB!
I am thinking you need an appointment with my Opthamologist Jerry.
His hip doesn\'t look giant, but overall he looks very good mentally and physically to me.
BTW,
FWIW, I am 100% in agreement with what MJ said on this topic. I had the same exact exchange with a friend of mine this week who said he didn\'t like how AP looked in the pic getting off the van
he definitely looks light, especially in his hind but that\'s exactly how he looked coming out of the Rebel.
If he regains the weight over the next two weeks like he did in the two weeks coming out of the Rebel, there is no problem, if he doesn\'t put the weight back on this time, it\'s telling.
it\'s also pretty likely that Baffert intentionally keeps him a little lighter than his typical horse (which generally look like Greek Gods) in order to try and prevent the injury that kept him out of the Breeders Cup from reoccurring. That\'s very common for horses who have had a significant injury to be kept lighter than normal.
on this topic, does anyone have Bodemeister\'s PPs leading up to the Derby. I can\'t remember if Baffert breezed him once or twice between the Ark Derby and the Ky Derby.
I know Baffert usually likes to breeze them 2x over CD because he feels like the track takes some time to get comfortable with but with only 3 weeks between races, I think it\'s tough.
Also interesting that he\'s sending Dortmund and One Lucky Dane out on April 26th so they will only have 1 breeze over CD track.
He may be changing his tactics because he hasn\'t won this thing in a while and he lost with last heavy favorite (Bode).
I can only imagine the hysteria on this board if Pletcher ever lost with the favorite in the Derby....ok sorry, couldn\'t resist that one, I will stop that now!
1-- What was the specific injury AP had?
2-- Has anyone ever done any research on how horses who trained at CD have done in the Derby relative to those that have not?
Jim
Bris pp\'s - http://www.brisnet.com/brisnet_promos/KYDerbyHistory0013.pdf
Re AP, an originally reported foot bruise, turned out to be a suspensory. Baffy stated it\'s all fine before AP debuted as 3yr old.
Don\'t know about training at CD but having raced well at CD prior to the derby had been an angle I like.
Dortmund obviously has the edge there.
this is super interesting, thanks for posting this data
I think it\'s very telling that Baffert breezed Bode 2x between Ark Derby and Ky Derby and he breezed a fast 5 furlongs both times and yet he plans on only breezing AP one time.
It doesn\'t mean AP isn\'t going to run a monster race on May 2nd, it just means that Baffert really is treating this horse with a light touch because of the injury history.
One could also argue that AP has more foundation than Bode so he needed more to be ready for the race or that since Bode didn\'t win as the pretty heavy fav that he is changing tactics.
I would lean toward the idea that they are trying to prevent the physical issues from cropping back up.
my goodness does this horse move so beautifully for a horse that has some physical issues, simply flawless action
Jim
Two very sharp individuals who observe AP\'s daily training in Cali believe he exhibits potential star quality.AP was regularly demolishing his workmates who are nice horses.AP never stiff in am (Dortmund sometimes was but still ran big)
No way to know how sound he is.
Mike
oh, I don\'t think there is any doubt about how brilliant the horse is.
He is demolishing horses in Graded Stakes and those horses are coming back to win Grade 1s themselves (i.e. Texas Red).
He\'s a brilliant, brilliant horse
As I\'ve said on board before, distance somewhat of a question mark but it would be more of a question if he didn\'t move as well as he does
This whole talk of brilliance is kinda getting old if you ask me he has beat ABSOLUTELY nothing simple as that. Oh the way he moves is breathtaking!! Please lets all take a breath and put the Kool Aid container down for a moment. Look at the horses he has beaten this year in those two races at Oaklawn list just one of them that you really see winning a Grade 1 not this year but EVER!!! Talk about paid workouts...
If he wins the Derby then I will start to look at him and consider the term \"Brilliance\" being used until then he\'s a total bet against for the win. The horse had foot problems in the past he has been babied ever since and he is on a tight schedule coming into the Derby. This always in the past has spelled
P-L-A-Y A-G-A-I-N-S-T!
I don\'t care how much the trainer thinks of this horse, Baffert thought the same of Point Given, Looking at Lucky, Bode and a couple others going into the Derby through the years and he totally got his balls whacked all those times.
This is looking like a very good crop of 3 year old\'s and not a year you want to be playing catch up or taking it easy on your horse (trying to not hurt him further). He will be totally off all my tickets on the Win and Place end. I could see him maybe holding on for Show at the very best.
I think the Derby once again runs through FL this winter... Yes there are several running all over the different parts of the country that could show up in the gimmicks but Frosted, Carpe Diem, Upstart and Materiality all look better to me then AP. Dortmund is the only horse that scares me that has been running outside of Florida that I could see winning the race. I could see me using him as well on the Win end based on his odds and post position.
So go ahead fire away at me cause I don\'t think the second coming of Seattle Slew is here among us but I think your an absolute fool to bet AP to win on any ticket in this years running of the KY Derby.
louisvilleguy1111 Wrote:
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> This whole talk of brilliance is kinda getting old
> if you ask me he has beat ABSOLUTELY nothing
> simple as that. Oh the way he moves is
> breathtaking!! Please lets all take a breath and
> put the Kool Aid container down for a moment. Look
> at the horses he has beaten this year in those two
> races at Oaklawn list just one of them that you
> really see winning a Grade 1 not this year but
> EVER!!! Talk about paid workouts...
>
> If he wins the Derby then I will start to look at
> him and consider the term \"Brilliance\" being used
> until then he\'s a total bet against for the win.
> The horse had foot problems in the past he has
> been babied ever since and he is on a tight
> schedule coming into the Derby. This always in the
> past has spelled
> P-L-A-Y A-G-A-I-N-S-T!
>
> I don\'t care how much the trainer thinks of this
> horse, Baffert thought the same of Point Given,
> Looking at Lucky, Bode and a couple others going
> into the Derby through the years and he totally
> got his balls whacked all those times.
> This is looking like a very good crop of 3 year
> old\'s and not a year you want to be playing catch
> up or taking it easy on your horse (trying to not
> hurt him further). He will be totally off all my
> tickets on the Win and Place end. I could see him
> maybe holding on for Show at the very best.
>
> I think the Derby once again runs through FL this
> winter... Yes there are several running all over
> the different parts of the country that could show
> up in the gimmicks but Frosted, Carpe Diem,
> Upstart and Materiality all look better to me then
> AP. Dortmund is the only horse that scares me that
> has been running outside of Florida that I could
> see winning the race. I could see me using him as
> well on the Win end based on his odds and post
> position.
>
> So go ahead fire away at me cause I don\'t think
> the second coming of Seattle Slew is here among us
> but I think your an absolute fool to bet AP to win
> on any ticket in this years running of the KY
> Derby.
Winning the Derby and having brilliance are not mutually exclusive.
Also, I wouldn\'t say that Bodemeister got his \"balls kicked in\".
I think we can also say Point Given was a pretty decent horse.
It seems that we have 2 different discussions here. You are saying he\'s a toss for the Derby, which at the low odds and physical issues isn\'t a bad idea.
That doesn\'t discount what many experienced observers have to say about this horse. Losing in the Derby wouldn\'t mean that those opinions of AP aren\'t valid. Many exceptional horses have lost in the Derby and gone on to have excellent careers.
I love the commitment to look for reasons to beat the favorite and so far be it from me to stop you there
I would only correct the part about not beating anyone.
He destroyed Texas Red who came back to make a mockery of the BC Juv field including Carpe Diem
Agree on the Oaklawn races but he can only run against who is entered against him
He may not get distance or may be short, etc but to say he hasn\'t beaten anyone isn\'t correct.
Further, it is a pretty short list of horses who got beat that are somebody! Frosted, Firing Line, Upstart? To date. This is so subjective about maturing three year olds. Far Right graded stakes wins?
if Texas Red is the horse you have to go to so you can prove what he beat then you don\'t have much of a case in my opinion.
As for Carpe vs Texas Red I would wager on Carpe anytime head to head. Alydar beat Affirmed but it never made him the better horse at anytime in their careers.
Bode was the race favorite ran a huge race and got his balls whacked at the 1/16 pole... Did he ever win a race other then the ARK Derby?
Point Given was a very nice horse best of his generation and if AP is Brillant then he will overcome the 20 horse Derby field that is what Brilliant is in my opinion. Doing things that look hard to overcome if not look impossible. We have not seen many Brillant horses in the last 20+ years I don\'t think, but maybe my standards are higher then most...
Yes he can run against only what is entered but that doesn\'t mean Baffert isn\'t smart enough to know where the second tier horses are vs the top horses. Get him to the big race in as easy best condition as possible and then see what you really have. He never had a problem running horses in his stable head to head in the past in big races. Point being people need to get a grip they have no idea by looking at his last two races how good AP really is. He could be the monster like most think, wouldn\'t surprise me one bit, but bottom line he is a HORRIBLE wager on top in the KY Derby... I hope he is 2-1 so let the hype begin.
Far Right is not a G1 horse if he wins a G1 I give up the sport forever. That kicker was life and death to beat out Mr. Z at the wire, for second place even after Wayne has tried to literally kill that poor animal. If Far Right is your example of beating something, then my case gets stronger.
OK, I finally get your point and I agree. AP hasn\'t really beaten anyone of any significance in Arkansas. It is just that he beat them so easily and by so much.
Calculator looked promising. My apologies for nearly having a knee jerk ESPN broadcaster moment. Emotions can be so volatile.
The Breeder\'s Cup was a key race with 5 next out winners and 4 Derby horses. The horse who trounced them all was beaten by American Pharoah who also beat another pretty good horse in the Frontrunner-Sham winner Calculator.
Maybe nobody showed up in Arkansas to face AP because they didn\'t want to go into a race they had no chance of winning. Or they just didn\'t want to run on 3 weeks rest, which isn\'t nearly the problem everyone makes it out to be since in the last 10 years horses on 3 weeks rest or less have the following top 4 finishes: 2 wins, 3 2nds, 3 3rds and 3 4ths.
When trainers start thinking that they won\'t enter horses in million dollar races cause they think they can\'t win, pigs will fly!
No doubt your standards are higher than most.
In two separate posts you infer that Baffert got his balls whacked, and then in this message you suggest that Bode also got his balls whacked.
I\'ve never actually had my balls whacked, but it does sound painful.
Seriously dude, what difference should it make to you if hoards of people choose to put their money on AP? They have a right to wager their opinions with our without your approval.
I just think the whole thing how people are acting like he is brillant already is being a bit over played is all. But point taken and I agree. Good luck to everyone this Derby.
louisvilleguy1111 Wrote:
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> I just think the whole thing how people are acting
> like he is brillant already is being a bit over
> played is all. But point taken and I agree. Good
> luck to everyone this Derby.
Sounds like people have different definitions of Brilliance.
You couldn\'t leave it alone...
Jerry
Please post the early package so we can move on to discuss figures and patterns.
Early next week. And oh yeah, that will provoke some dialogue.
I\'m with you on the AP hype, but who exactly has CD beaten? Ami\'s Flatter is a solid horse, but was last seen losing to the top two in the Florida Derby by double digit legnths. Speaking of all out, Carpe Diem was all out to beat Upstart, when that one was the only horse to finish after attending to the Juvy pace. He did handle Mr. Z, but we know what you think of him. Hey, Danzig Moon has a nice maiden win at GP.
Far right is as accomplished as anything CD beat this year. If I\'m inclined to toss one of the favorite\'s, Carpe Diem is the one.
\"Lou Guy\"
Appreciate you coming strong and staunchly stating your position; you don\'t like American Pharoah! At this point, to me this colt is pounds the best and most likely winner, but save that debate, a lot of moving parts two weeks out.
Your drive by shooting, aimed at horse trainers caught my attention and the reason for the post. Perhaps 50% of trainers actually decide where to run. Owners/racing managers/advisors nowadays are having much more to say on where to enter (and most trainers do not mind passing that torch one bit), admittedly at the top end of the sport.
Your Arkansas Derby post is a bit of contradiction. Factually, (nearly a hundred were nominated, yet eight ran)! The evidence here indicates MANY trainers elected not to participate in this heat, perhaps many of them saw the Rebel! bbb
I think Ocho Ocho Ocho and Diving Rod both have way more talent then anything Far Right has beaten. Not to mention the other two you talked about CD beating in your post. So saying Far Right beat more in his races then CD has is well plain silly.
Okay. You guys know where you are, right? Who he beat? Here??
TGJB Wrote:
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> You couldn\'t leave it alone...
I was being serious.
Perhaps so. Thinking most big outfits that are looking for derby horses year end year out nominate everywhere not just to a certain race on the derby trail. But you could totally be correct and no one wanted to run agaisnt AP.
Good luck everyone...
You are right of course.
Carpe Diem\'s numbers are by far the worst of the leading contenders, and that\'s reason enough to toss him.
TGJB Wrote:
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> Okay. You guys know where you are, right? Who he
> beat? Here??
Very good point. This board holds itself to higher standards of grammar.
Cue Curtis, stage right.
Pretty funny.
Indeed! And he even got the \"stage right\" thing correct. I always get that confused.
Tossing this colt makes no sense to me. Multiple grad one winner, resume flawless. Connections could not be any better. Two points; 1) see who Johnny rides and 2) this colt is better than his numbers! bbb
Well, this is a figure making board. So the discussion probably should start there. But the top figure horse doesn\'t always win or hit the board, especially in this race. They\'ve got to handle the stress to get the trip, and they\'ve got to get that extra 1/8th.
Last year, when Chrome drew the 5 post I said he would not likely get the outside stalking trip he needed to run his race. I based that on watching him trying to bite another horse in the stretch in an earlier race he ran when he got pinned inside. He HATED being inside and freaked. I figured he would get stuck inside at CD and waste his energy trying to get out. I completely tossed him on most of my tickets.
Well, he received an outstanding ride, made his trip and won. So I was wrong. And I was wrong again in the Preakness. But I did get out in the Belmont.
This game is as much about playing percentages as anything else. And I would still play that race that way all over again. When people say you can beat the race but not the races I disagree 100%. It\'s the opposite that\'s true.
I haven\'t seen AP do anything that makes me think he can\'t run his race. But he hasn\'t done anything to make me know that he can and there\'s others that have. To my eye, so far AP\'s just been fast enough to beat up on a bunch of over matched colts at a 1 1/16 and 1 1/8. He hasn\'t taken dirt. He hasn\'t overcome trouble. He was on a tight schedule to get here. And this crop is very, very good. So I\'m not going to annoint him. Quality Road looked unbeatable at 1 1/8, but I said right here on this board that he would never win at 1 1/4 and he never did.
Don\'t get me wrong. I don\'t plan to burn up my money. I\'ll see how AP trains. And if he looks lights out and draws well enough where u could see the race setting up for him then so be it. But if u put a gun to my head right now and said how you gonna bet it, I say at the 4-1 or so odds- and more importantly as a heavy use on most exotic tickets- the percentage play is to go against him.
Usually I contend questions are irresponsible but I do want to hear you ring in on a few subjects. If you don\'t mind.
1. Handicapping objectivity
2. Stanford (The Horse)
3. Surprises of the Derby (good and bad)
4. Apparent shortage of GP closers
MJ-- Re how the fast horses do, it\'s worth checking out how often the Derby winner is among the 3-4 fastest horses, meaning based on their tops.
Just looking at the brisnet pp
Winner and last work at
Orb. CD
I\'ll Have Another HOL (but he was blowing out down the stretch at CD almost fast enough to be considered a work)
Animal Kingdom. CD
Super Saver. CD
Mine That Bird. CD
Big Brown. CD
Street Sense. CD
Barbaro. CD
Giacomo. HOL
Smarty Jones. CD
Funny Cide. BEL
War Emblem. CD
Monarchos. CD
Fusaichi Pegasus CD
I know. That\'s why I use figures and post here. Animal kingdom strikes me as an exception, but he was coming off of synthetic and grass.
Last year CC was knocked left and right because he was/is stiff in the am and wasn\'t physically impressive. So he goes out and easily wins the Derby and then the Preakness.
Fast/accomplishment/nice pattern trump all at the end of the day,check most previous winners.Problem this year is that 5 or 6 fit that profile.
MJ: I agree. If everyone is so high on AP then why no hype on Firing Line who beat up on bad horses as well. Plus he\'s already stretched the best horse in the race, albeit at a 1 1/16.
I have a nice future ticket on Carpe Diem but wasn\'t overwhelmed with his BG and have my reservations about Giant Causeways going a 1 1/4 on dirt (yes, I know he did it but not so sure it\'s something he passed along).
Tough call-- gun to my head I say Dortmund in a close one.
Good Luck,
Joe B
I couldn\'t agree with this more.
Good post.
And I was one of the ones knocking CC for being stuff in the AM!
\"And I was one of the ones knocking CC for being stuff in the AM!\"
Jim,
You might not have if you knew CC always looked that way before blowing away his competition.CC did look much more tucked up pre Belmont though.
Mike
Tavasco,
Not sure how to answer that but here goes.
Handicapping Objectivity - Performance figures are the closest thing we have to that - an actual measurement of what happened on the race track. I suppose pace figures could fall into that too, or most anything with solid methodology and math behind it.
Stanford is a nice colt coming into his own. Like his development. Don\'t know that he\'s ever gone backward. But Materiality handled him pretty easily. And Stanford got away with an easy lead in LA Derby and kicked away from the field in the stretch - which he should have - but International Star ran him down anyway. So that\'s either a big minus for Stanford or a big plus for International Star, depending upon how you look at it. Since they came home in 12 and change, I tend to say it\'s more of an extra credit plus for International Star. Stanford ran really well. But horses who get away with lone front running trips with soft fractions (48.59, 113.27) are supposed to deliver a peak performance. Compare those fractions of LA Derby to the New Orleans Handicap (47.57, 111.27) or the FG Oaks (47.03, 111.19) earlier on the card. So to my eye, Stanford would need a big forward move to contend for the win, and that isn\'t real likely as he just got a perfect set up in LA Derby and probably ran about as well as he can. And keep in mind that he wasn\'t that fast at 2 so he may not have a lot of room for more development. Nice colt though.
Surprises at the Derby... You put 20 young colts in the gate in front of 100,000 screaming fans and ask them to run further than they ever have on a track with a lot of clay in it that many of them have never raced on against the deepest field they are likely to ever face... and you are usually going to get some surprises. Probably none bigger than Mine That Bird though. Very often the public gets enamored with a few colts that have shown brilliance at 2 or at shorter distances against weaker fields when they had it all their own way. But when those colts get a good dose of dirt, bumping and adversity heading into the first turn at CD many of them stress out, fall apart and waste valuable energy that they are going to need later. There\'s a reason why the favorite didn\'t win this race for over 20 years. Now that we are in the information age the public is doing a better job of sorting this race out. But they still don\'t really get it. I don\'t mean to keep preaching, but a young horse must have the mind to hold it all together to win this race, or get very lucky if they don\'t.
No clue what you mean by shortage of GP closers. Typically a front runner\'s track anyway. Surface was very quirky on it\'s 2 biggest days for 3 year olds this year though.
Right and right. Except it\'s not a problem...