For those looking for examples of TAP horses that ran big figures at GP but couldn\'t replicate them at CD, you better not look at My Miss Sophia sheet in the turf stake on Friday at Keenland.
She ran a huge fig for a young 3 year old filly at GP and then matched that fig at CD on Oaks Day.
Probably best to just ignore that one since it doesn\'t fit all of the conspiracy theories.
My Super Saver example from earlier this week got dismissed bc it was at Tampa and not GP and because it wasn\'t \"big enough\". Well, MMS figure was bigger than Materiality (when making the 3 point adjustment for fillies and colts) and it was at GP but we will surely find another reason why that fig isn\'t relevant.
No reason to look at sheet for Materiality half sister, nothing to see here....please disperse!!!
We\'ll post the Pletcher stats in the seminar.
It doesn\'t have to be all horses to be true. And believe me, it\'s not just TG people who have noticed (including some of his owners, one of whom decided it\'s because his horses like that kind of surface. Another noticed he does a lot better when Allday is around than during the period a while back when he wasn\'t).
right or maybe it\'s what I have been saying on this board for years,
that he pushes his horses very hard starting at Saratoga and horses can\'t stay in top form that long
I love all the Pletcher conspiracy nonsense because it creates a much better price on the horse I happen to like this year but I do think it\'s just that, nonsense
He may not win b.c maybe the distance is too far or AP is too brilliant or he gets bumped around or caught up in a fast pace or because the 2 neg knocked him out in the Fla Derby (doesn\'t seem like it did but never know until they run) so he is the furthest thing from a sure thing but I will take the fastest (or co fastest) horse in the race who is thriving at the right time physically who had a sire and siblings run huge at CD for a trainer who has won the race before and hit the board the last 2 years at 10 to 1 any day of the week
My comments were on Pletcher, not this horse. I\'ll have plenty of those in the seminar.
The greatest part of the \"conspiracy theory\" came when Allday admitted everything to 20 members of the Jockey Club. I guess he just wanted people to think it was true when it wasn\'t.
it\'s very misleading to suggest that he was referring specifically to Derby related things
I didn\'t. But he\'s been Pletcher\'s vet almost straight through since Pletcher started winning big, and we know from the TDN series that the situation with rules and testing in Fla is different.
Jerry, in that vein, any comment on the Dickinson piece written for the Water Hay Oats Alliance that also appeared in the Paulick Report last week? Specifically, that it is hard to trust any results produced by accredited labs because the standards for accreditation are so lax it is difficult to fail? Dickinson\'s most sensational allegation is that one director of an accredited lab knew his equipment was outdated and so sent samples to Hong Kong, and the result was that the samples were so \"dirty\" it took seven days to clean the equipment. Pretty tough stuff, although without names, dates, etc. all impossible to verify.
Single most interesting about this is I tried to get Michael to write a piece on drugs about a year ago, he wouldn\'t. He\'s been on the right side for years.
Other than that, haven\'t read it. You can put it here with a link.
http://www.paulickreport.com/horse-care-category/dickinson-breeders-must-lead-the-way-to-change-u-s-drug-rules/
well, we are talking about the Derby lately here so the reference could have been misinterpreted as Allday was talking specifically about the Derby horses in that discussion which I know he wasn\'t.
here\'s the bottom-line for me
Pletcher has had plenty of horses run well in the Derby and Oaks including in each of the last 2 years.
Cherry picking sample sets of his horses that haven\'t run well is just reverse engineering to fit a thesis. Will you include his Oaks runners in the sample you provide for the seminar? Seems arbitrary if you don\'t.
I use the TGs b/c it\'s the best data in the game. The conspiracy theories that abound around the data I will leave to everyone else to get wrapped up in.
Give me the fastest horse in the race at 10-1 and I will take my chances.
Wouldn\'t be the first Derby I have crapped out on!
Jim,
I have not had the time to research this but I believe a lot of Pletcher horses that did not run well in the KYD were not that good. Of course some were but I don\'t believe many were expected to win. I am better at guessing the final odds than picking the winners and I will wait for posts to be drawn and factor in public perception but Materiality will be higher than 10-1.
George
Thanks for those thoughts
My guess is that when all the wise guys see how good Materiality looks and moves come derby week, he will get some steam and go off lower than his current odds.
Before this gets completely off track-- my point is specifically about getting figures in Fla (and maybe Mth) that they are less likely to run elsewhere. It is NOT about the Derby, Oaks or anything else than that. I named the two horses that earned the best two figures of all time, one was 4yo and one a filly, so it CLEARLY wasn\'t about the Derby. You then cherry picked a list-- and I posted sheets for the ones you listed.
Again-- not about the Derby, let alone a specific horse.
If we ran a study I\'m pretty sure we would find Pletcher gets a higher % of tops at GP than any other track. And it\'s not confined to his 3yos.
Jim
You saying he\'s the Saarland this year?
Tops at GP are irrelevant.What is TAP\'s win % at GP vs NYRA venue which two venues are where a majority of his annual starters race.
If he\'s using at GP, his win % should be much higher than at NYRA.
thanks for the thoughts,
in the interest of moving forward from this string and getting back to talking about the Derby, I will leave it there!
Quick stats here. Does not take into account TOPS or new TOP, just overall percentages.
\'15 GP total starts 151/34 wins 19%, 3 yo starts 102/23 wins 22%
\'14 GP 241 starts/73 wins 30%, 3 yo 141 starts/45 wins 32%
[/b]\'13 GP 236 starts/66 wins 28%, 3 yo 118 starts/30 wins 25%
\'15 AQU 68 starts/13 wins 19%, 3 yo 43 starts/10 wins 23%
\'14 AQU 144 starts/27 wins 19%, 3 yo 76 starts/17 wins 22%
\'13 AQU 148 starts/35 wins 24%, 3 yo 70 starts/14 wins 20%
\'14 BEL 188 starts/44 wins 23%, 3 yo 94 starts/22 wins 23%
\'14 SAR 131 starts/28 wins 21%, 3 yo 48 starts/12 wins 25%
\'13 SAR 131 starts/36 wins 27%, 3 yo 59 starts/15 wins 25%
\'14 CD 21 starts/2 wins 10%, 3 yo 13 starts/1 win 8%
\'13 CD25 starts/4 wins 16%, 3 yo 13 starts/2 wins 15%
Overall pcts GP in last 3 years Overall win 28%, 3 yo 27%
Overall pcts AQU in last 3 years Overall wins 21%, 3 yo 22%
Overall pcts SAR in last 2 years Overall 24%, 3 yo 25%
Overall pcts CD in last 2 years Overall 13%, 3 yo 12%
Got this off Timeform, no promise of accuracy.
Thanks Small, think it points out the obvious,TAP points to GP and Spa meets.Whatever he\'s using at GP doesn\'t seem to be working too well,relatively speaking.
Thank you very much for taking the time to pull those stats
really interesting data
Not a Pletcher guy here, but nothing jumped out from the overall, except CD.
Since 2009 Pletcher with 3 year olds Derby 21-1-0-2.
The story though is this: 7 starts have been single digit and hit the board 3 times which is not bad. 7-1-0-2-0
11 starters were double digit and he was 11-0-0-0-0 to hit the board,
3 of the starters were not only double digit but went off at 50/1+ and was 0-3.
Small sample, but in 21 starts if the horse went off above single digits he did not hit the board.
The horses that were supposed to run decent, did, the longshots ran to their odds.
Surprising thing is with J.R. up he is 4-0-0-0-0 finishes were 12th, 14th, 10th, and 10th. Those four went off at 15/1, 9/1, 6/1, and 12/1 so not really on complete outsiders.
If not for Borel 3-1-0-1-0 record would be 18-0-0-1, not that scary to play against.
Not to lengthen the string, but Baffert since 2009 is 9-0-3-0-1, with 4 starters in single digits, 1 horse at 10.60/1, and 5 double digit starters.
Todd and Bob are 30-1-3-2-1. Again, gotta respect these two top trainers, but the numbers say they aren\'t that scary to play against in the Derby.
Small,
Do not believe they ever had AP, Dort, Materiality and Carpe Diem types in prior years.
Mike
Mike,
Wouldn\'t argue that point due to the talent of these 4 horses.
The assigned jockeys on the mentioned horses with Materiality unknown at this time are 11-1-0-0-1 with Victor winning on Chrome last year.
Jockeys that Pletcher has used in past Derby\'s that may or may not be assigned a mount in this Derby and thus available:
(I didn\'t look at current Derby rider assignments). Since 2009.
J. Rocco 1-0-0-0-0
Bravo 1-0-0-1-0 (Danza)
JJ Castellano 4-0-0-0-0
Borel 2-1-0-1-0 (S. Saver and Revolutionary)
Prado 2-0-0-0-0
Bejarano 2-0-0-0-0
Rajiv 1-0-0-0-0
Mike Smith 1-0-0-0-0
14-1-0-2-0 and that\'s with Borel.
Pletcher is 1 for 40 in the Derby. No conspiracy.
One of Pletcher\'s stated goals as a trainer is to create Stallion Prospects for his owners. What better race to create stallions than the Derby? Certainly he is trying to win this race. No conspiracy.
Pletcher trained a horse you bought into hoping to make the Derby. In classic Pletcher form, the horse was hurt before the Derby arrived. I point this out because you could or likely have a relationship with him that seeks to defend him. No conspiracy.
The study involving Pletcher\'s TG stats as compared to how all Derby runners fare has a small problem from my perspective. Why can\'t we compare how his Derby horses fared compared to how all of his graded stakes horses have fared? I don\'t know but my bet is your study will have a different result. More importantly, why is it unfair to hold him at the Derby and Churchill to the same standard he has set elsewhere such as Saratoga and Gulfstream?
I am very uneducated in the science of chemistry (I\'m not a \"chemist\" as Dickinson states in his article) beyond what I have and attempt to read involving medication in horse racing. I have no real world experience in this regard. I do have a theory or two on what I believe is occurring not only with Pletcher\'s horses but with many other trainers\' horses. I will not bore the board with these thoughts since they are merely conjecture. I think Pletcher started a bit of a \"revolution\" among trainers in this regard,....and other trainers had to sink or swim out of necessity. I don\'t think he currently is doing anything \"illegal\" or \"magical\" although again, I have thoughts on his training.
My posts are intended to seek and find patterns to assist with solving the never ending handicapping problem especially the Derby puzzle which with Pletcher is as fascinating as ever. I apologize if I have offended but I seek to win when I go to the window. Typing my thoughts and conclusions helps me with making decisions. Smalltimer\'s posts are exactly the kind of info I find very meaningful.
I guess you would call this more cherry picking but why was Dunkirk not the fastest horse with the breeding to be a Derby winner? (I\'m not asking why you didn\'t bet him but rather why doesn\'t he qualify under the question you posed the other day?)
I\'m not a Pletcher hater. You probably think I bet against him every race. Or that I have a voodoo doll like Moreno\'s trainer that is directed at him. I do not. I actually bet his horses in multi\'s often and had success in Derby preps with his horses, the first being Graeme Hall the first year I began following the game. The patterns I\'ve seen seem pretty obvious in regard to the Derby and his super-fast maiden debuters that start at Gulf or run off the screen down there in stakes races.
As I told Treadhead about Verrazzano last year, you can have Materiality. I don\'t see it and a big part of my reason is Pletcher\'s history with the Derby and Gulfstream superstars. If I\'m wrong, I\'ll be the one eating crow.
Fairmount,
I\'m sorry I don\'t have time to do the Graded analysis like you suggested. I did a quick 4 year olds and up for Pletcher, all sprints, routes, turf, etc., for the following tracks since 2009.
GP 419 starts/120 wins 29%
KEE 87 starts/24 wins 28%
AQU 343 starts/88 wins 26%
SAR 182 starts/42 wins 23%
BEL 270 starts/52 wins 19%
CD 97 starts/7 wins 7%
Because this is for all his races with 4 year olds and up it is very non-specific as to quality of horse/distance/surface/intent, etc.
But, if you look at the above numbers, you just gotta ask yourself, \"which number looks out of line?\"
Sorry to smalltimer for hijacking his excellent stuff here and building on it.
Since 2009, (6 Derby\'s), there have been 24 horses out of 116 go off at single digit odds. Baffert and Pletcher have trained 10 of those 24 horses (41.6 percent of the single digit odds horses). The bettors sure pour it in on them despite not being scary as smalltimer says.
Those 10 horses: 10-1-2-2-0.
smalltimer Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Fairmount,
> I\'m sorry I don\'t have time to do the Graded
> analysis like you suggested. I did a quick 4 year
> olds and up for Pletcher, all sprints, routes,
> turf, etc., for the following tracks since 2009.
>
> GP 419 starts/120 wins 29%
> KEE 87 starts/24 wins 28%
> AQU 343 starts/88 wins 26%
> SAR 182 starts/42 wins 23%
> BEL 270 starts/52 wins 19%
> CD 97 starts/7 wins 7%
>
> Because this is for all his races with 4 year olds
> and up it is very non-specific as to quality of
> horse/distance/surface/intent, etc.
>
> But, if you look at the above numbers, you just
> gotta ask yourself, \"which number looks out of
> line?\"
When they have contenders people play them, that\'s just good handicapping.
If the past numbers run true to form (possible), then AP, Dortmund, Carpe Diem and possibly Materiality will be single digit at post time. If Jim C is correct and Materiality makes a great track appearance he may sneak into less than double digit odds.
If the previous numbers are 10-1-2-2 then 50% of their horses in single digits hit the board. If we are talking AP, Dort, Carpe, and Mat--which 2 hit the board and which 2 don\'t?
It\'s the only race in the USA where 16 really nice horses don\'t even fill out the super.
smalltimer Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Fairmount,
> I\'m sorry I don\'t have time to do the Graded
> analysis like you suggested. I did a quick 4 year
> olds and up for Pletcher, all sprints, routes,
> turf, etc., for the following tracks since 2009.
>
> GP 419 starts/120 wins 29%
> KEE 87 starts/24 wins 28%
> AQU 343 starts/88 wins 26%
> SAR 182 starts/42 wins 23%
> BEL 270 starts/52 wins 19%
> CD 97 starts/7 wins 7%
>
> Because this is for all his races with 4 year olds
> and up it is very non-specific as to quality of
> horse/distance/surface/intent, etc.
>
> But, if you look at the above numbers, you just
> gotta ask yourself, \"which number looks out of
> line?\"
none of the races at gulf, kee,aq,bel r sar were 20 horse fields. Makes a huge difference in the statistical analysis
Danny,
I didn\'t do an analysis, I said its very \"non-specific.\" I spent 10 minutes pulling generic data from Timeform on Pletcher 4yo+ at different venues.
I can\'t argue the tracks do not have a 20 horse field like the Derby. So I guess I missed the point of your comment?
JB,
Cat got your tongue? Pletcher is statistically weak in Kentucky, arguably the weakest of the main venues re comprehensive testing. Puts lots of holes in the swiss cheese TAP is using illegal PEDS theory.
Mike
There\'s a reason we make figures. They\'re more accurate than win %.
the point is that for the derby the average win % is 1 in 20 or 5% assuming that you have an overall equal chance to win with the horse you have. If pletcher won one more derby he would be 2/40 or 1/20. The average in the money % for the derby assuming a 20 horse field is 15%. If pletcher had that one more win he would be 5% on the win and 15% itm. Do we have any trainers with a good % as a trainer for the derby? I don\'t think any results will be meaningful. Now the CD stats are interesting albeit 40 of them were derby horses.
Justwin: I think you base your percentages on the presumption of a single horse by a trainer is entered. TAP entries in the derby are often two,three, or even four horses on the first Saturday in May. As far as trainer percentages go, Art Sherman has a pretty good one as well as John Sherrifs and Charlie Whittingham.
Miff, I am not contradicting your conclusion. I was just looking for a place to interject into this thread. I consider you open minded and industry savvy so I picked this spot. My approach to solving problems is to start outside of the nine dots. I want to consider as many limiting factors as I can imagine.
From Neuro Linguistics Programming (NLP), If I observe a person hanging out right next to a big bunch of personal pain, What do I conclude? I conclude there is an enormous bunch of pain just out of my sight because I know people avoid pain and/or seek pleasure. Therefore (hoping not to mix metaphors) if I see a trainer not exploiting a major source of revenue it is because I don\'t see the associated costs or the trainer is more concerned with a bigger payoff elsewhere.
TAP is consistently referred to as the most successful Trainer in the U.S.. I believe that is a function of both races won and $\'s won. I don\'t hear him referred to as the best trainer in North America. I conclude he is an extremely competent businessman in the Thoroughbred Horse Racing Industry.
I have never seen an income statement of his so I can only guess at his streams of income. We know he gets a share of the purse money. I suppose he gets fees from consulting on the purchase of horses. I am guessing he gets fees somehow/someway from breeding.
When I see stats like those presented in this thread, I conclude NY & FL are TAP\'s primary agenda, CD is not his agenda. Based on results, the facts, I can\'t be certain of his business strategies but it is easy to imagine it involves a focus on winning targeted races in the service of growing his clientele and dovetails with breeding. If he wins the Kentucky Derby in the process, so be it wonderful. But frankly that is only one client, and his operation could be measuring their success by another metric. I don\'t know the TAP paradigm, is it so unreasonable to believe it is not in his best interest to dominate the race or that he couldn\'t if that was a priority. I suspect that breeding economics is the unseen key.
A thanks to Jim Covello and a chance to probably misuse the term paradigm one of my favorite words. I\'ve always imagined the Wall Street paradigm to be centered around intelligence (like in CIA) those who had the best information got the best results. The concept of insider information and the need for rules concerning same. So this board encourages and invites Jim to share info acquired from his position in the thoroughbred industry during this Kentucky Derby feeding frenzy. Jim has always been generous to share, when appropriate, and believing Materialistic to be a good things says so. I have my opinions but I do not need to argue with Jim\'s to make mine right. So I was embarrassed that it happened on a board that prides itself on civility.
In Short - TAP does not dominate the Kentucky Derby because he is unable to, but because it may not be fundamental to and possibly contrary to his business strategy. In other words turning over precocious young horses is more profitable than investing in stamina oriented late developing horses.
In the end - A Great Line From - La Grande Belleza - It is too complicated for one person.
Looking at Materiality\'s sheet for the Florida Derby and some old sheets (none except Monmouth older than last September) from other tracks, here are TG\'s published top and pair percentages for Pletcher:
Overall: 17% tops, 31% pairs
Aqu: 17%, 29%
Bel: 15%, 31%
CD: 14%, 32%
FG: 18%, 41%
GP: 23%, 34%
Kee: 17%, 30%
Mth: 15%, 31%
OP: 17%, 29%
Sar: 12%, 32%
Tampa: 25%, 27%
Turfway: 28%, 20%
Obviously the sample sizes for some of these tracks are a lot smaller than for others.
[Edited to add Tampa]
Neat that you used the line from that movie, Tavasco. Just saw it. The Great Beauty.
Covello has a successful WallSt. guy\'s greatest asset: conviction. I like Mareriality, too. Afleet Alex was an incredible horse! Hope M runs to that breeding!
Something I see in the TP (and Baffert)issue is that GP and SAR (and SA) are speed tracks . CD can be fast, too, but not like the others. It might be the surface or the oversight, but speed horses don\'t win on slower tracks. To me it\'s like taking a sprinter to a route. And since the Derby in particular is longer with more weight, the speed types are less effective.
Great threads this last week.
Leamas
and i got GP 25% NYRA 21% one yr Apr2014- April 2015
SAR surprises me greatly. just 12% tops?
RICH,
Thanks. The numbers I used were for the entire \'13 and \'14 racing season at the named tracks, and the \'15 season from Jan through yesterday.
\"SAR surprises me greatly. just 12% tops?\"
Tops irrelevant, how often does he win at Sar? He\'s always one/two in trainer standings and number 1 with 2yr olds,he has 50 or so each year of top quality.
Considering the quality of the stock TAP receives every year, his results are average. Not a stat anywhere to support the use of illegal PEDS at any venue,clearly inferred by some of the conspiracy minded.
Personally have always felt any competent trainer could win at 25% with TAP\'s stock AND there are no less than a 5-6 NY trainers alone who told me exactly that,obviously some jealous.
TAP great CEO, average horseman based on results.
Based on pattern alone how many of these really were plays to win:
Danza (2) - 2,7,6,11 3rd race off layoff
We Miss Artie (5) - 3,11,6,8,5,12,15 4th race since break
Intense Holiday (2) - 2,0,6,6,6,6,8 4th race since break
Vinceremos (14) - 14,3,5,9,12 6th race since break
Revolutionary (2) - 2,5,2,11,4,10 2nd off layoff
Charming Kitten (6) - 2,6,8,8,10,11,14 5th race since break
Overanalyze (6) - 1,3,0,6,3,10,6 3rd race off layoff
Palace Malice (6) - 4,8,4,5,8,5 5th race since break
Verrazano (6) - 0,1,-2,4 5th race since break
El Padrino (11) - 2,2,2,7,7,11 4th race since break
Gemologist (14) - 2,2,5,7,7 3rd race off layoff
Stay Thirsty (7) - 11,3,7,2,7,7 3rd race off layoff
Super Saver (1) - 2,2,2,5,4,9 3rd race off layoff
Mission Impazible (5) - 4,4,4,8 4th race since break
Devil May Care (6) - 0,11,9,4,8 3rd race off layoff for the filly
Discreetly Mine (11) - 3,4,10,5,5,5,11 4th race since break
Looks pretty clear to me, fastest enough going 2nd or 3rd off the layoff!