why is this horse 12-1 on the early Morning Line?
Am I missing something?
1) He\'s the fastest horse coming into the race
2) He has won twice going 1 1/8, something no one else in the field has done
3) He is the only one of the top contenders to beat another good horse (Dortomund, AP, Frosted, Firing Line and Carpe Diem all beat tin cans in the final tune-up)
4) He has tactical speed that will keep him out of trouble
Is it really because he didn\'t run as a 2 year old? He won on Jan. 11th. So if he had run 12 days earlier, that is somehow supposed to matter 5 months later? That\'s the dumbest thing I have ever heard
In terms of seasoning and foundation
1) He has two 1 1/8 races which no one else has, not to mention on a track everyone considered deep and tiring which only adds to the fitness level
2) Had a tough stretch dual which no one else in the top flight had to further build foundation
3) most importantly, he bounced out of the Florida Derby in tremendous shape with a monster breeze last weekend (came home in 22 and change in that breeze). That\'s the truest test of how much foundation a horse has. If he didn\'t have enough foundation, he would have been gutted by that race.
Materiality may not win because American Pharoah may just be that brilliant or Materiality gets a bad post, etc but I don\'t understand why he\'s 12-1 right now when the horses ahead of him are a) slower, b) less battle tested, and c) no better pedigree wise than he is for the 1 1/4
If there\'s something other than foundation and the no 2 year old race (which is totally silly), please let me know
covelj70 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> why is this horse 12-1 on the early Morning Line?
>
> Am I missing something?
>
> 1) He\'s the fastest horse coming into the race
> 2) He has won twice going 1 1/8, something no one
> else in the field has done
> 3) He is the only one of the top contenders to
> beat another good horse (Dortomund, AP, Frosted,
> Firing Line and Carpe Diem all beat tin cans in
> the final tune-up)
> 4) He has tactical speed that will keep him out of
> trouble
>
> Is it really because he didn\'t run as a 2 year
> old? He won on Jan. 11th. So if he had run 12
> days earlier, that is somehow supposed to matter 5
> months later? That\'s the dumbest thing I have ever
> heard
>
> In terms of seasoning and foundation
>
> 1) He has two 1 1/8 races which no one else has,
> not to mention on a track everyone considered deep
> and tiring which only adds to the fitness level
> 2) Had a tough stretch dual which no one else in
> the top flight had to further build foundation
> 3) most importantly, he bounced out of the Florida
> Derby in tremendous shape with a monster breeze
> last weekend (came home in 22 and change in that
> breeze). That\'s the truest test of how much
> foundation a horse has. If he didn\'t have enough
> foundation, he would have been gutted by that
> race.
>
>
> Materiality may not win because American Pharoah
> may just be that brilliant or Materiality gets a
> bad post, etc but I don\'t understand why he\'s 12-1
> right now when the horses ahead of him are a)
> slower, b) less battle tested, and c) no better
> pedigree wise than he is for the 1 1/4
>
> If there\'s something other than foundation and the
> no 2 year old race (which is totally silly),
> please let me know
Also, assuming his sheet reads the way I expect it to read, he has a very important pattern in that he has not yet hit a reaction point. In my experience, it is more risky to give a horse a reaction before it first gives you a reaction. On one hand, while a lot of people view the light experience as a downside, there is an upside to it as well which is that the horse still has more to gain from more experience that the others already have. I suspect that 12-1 will look like an enticing price for this horse. One thing that is scary is that these same principles may suggest that American Pharoah is ready for an additional forward move in the Derby. Something tells me we may see the best fig ever in a Derby this year. Has anybody ever made a top 10 or top 20 of the best figs ever run in the derby? That would be an interesting list to see. I would like to see where the best fig to not win the derby fits in with all the winners.
2) He has won twice going 1 1/8, something no one else in the field has done .
Sans Mubtaahij. He won twice at 1/1/8 according to pp.\'s. Man was that name hard
to spell.
I think the problem is that we\'ve all been down this road before chasing these TAP horses that spring up out of Florida and start dominating everything in their path: Constitution, Danza, Verrazano, Eskendereya, Algorithms.
Let\'s be honest, we are all expecting this horse to show up with a hairline fracture or a bone chip or something that is going to knock him off the trail.
For me, its the Pletcher-Florida angle that concerns more than anything. I\'m not that concerned about the lack of 2 year old foundation. These TAPs seem to go nuts in Florida and then regress when they come north.
scat daddy also...
Where Cordero/Johhny V decide to go will be of interest. Barring Carpe Diem getting hurt it\'s rumored he\'ll ride him but Angel very \"cute\" when asked.
Surprising both owners, Carpe and Materiality aren\'t a bit put off. Obviously, Castellano gets the other one.
Jim might have left out that Materiaity is big/tough type also, maybe why he\'s not showing to be gutted right now.
Only Big Brown,in modern history, won Derby with only 3 starts going in,one grass route at 2.
great point on the Pletcher injuries but.....
Verazanno and Scat Daddy had no chance on the pedigree (Verazaano actually went off as a big price bc of the pedigree)
Constitution, ESK, Algo were hurt before the Derby so they never got to run
I make this argument every year but when has Pletcher had the fastest horse going into the race that had the pedigree to make the distance and that horse hasn\'t won? he hasn\'t
for all the noise about his poor derby record, his horses run the same percentage of tops and pairs as the avg horse running in the derby.
he just hasn\'t ever had THE horse yet
Esk and Constitution would have been the horse(s) but unfortunately, they were hurt
I can tell you very confidently that Materiality is absolutely physically thriving right now. There\'s still 19 days to go but he is doing very very well.
This is a different situation for Pletcher this year with this particular horse than any of the ones that people want to criticize him for
now, maybe bc of AP, Pletcher picked the wrong year to have THE horse so I have no problem with someone giving me that pushback but Materiality will be double the price so I have to lean in that direction
For me it\'s Pletcher as well as no 2 year old foundation. Is the only reason this horse showed up was Khozan went down? If Pletcher beats than he beats me.
ah, I keep forgetting about that one, yes, thank you very much for that one
I just got finished looking at his recent races on youtube. Had 3 very impressive races in Dubai. I don\'t want to open my mouth and insert foot. There are a lot of positives here.
Everyone on the board knows how I feel about Pletcher so I won\'t belabor the points. But you asked...so.
Gemologist.
Win over the track in the fall in the KyJC. Undefeated going in. Pair of 2\'s coming in. Bode came in on 5, 2, 3, 0. IHA came in 1, 3. I guess Gem just didn\'t like that surface at Churchill. And clearly he was leap years behind in the figs.
Son of Tiznow. Terrible breeding. Guess his mother was too speedy.
He was third choice at 8.60-1. Had a perfect position and trip. RESULT: empty. After his Wood, everyone talked about his determination to win, etc etc. People have caught on to Pletcher\'s Derby woes well before now. Change the name of Gemologist\'s trainer for his achievements to Drysdale, Sherman, Mandella, or countless others and Gemologist would have been the favorite. That\'s why Materiality\'s odds are so \"long\" in early forecasts.
Already making excuses for Materiality is amusing. Poor guy just never has the fastest horse, the best bred horse, etc etc.
I\'m inclined to go with the historical phenomena in this race. IF something is going to happen the first time then it can beat me , fine.
Should we make allowances for a \"Winstar Pletcher\"?
After all, they put the \"1\" in the \"1 for 40-something\". And Castner/Walden know a little about getting a horse ready for the TC.
Gemologist only raced twice after the Wood. Finish up the track (16th) in the Kentucky Derby and then 6th in a field of 6 in the Haskell. Something must have went awry with the horse.
Tell you what, Jim. Rather than break down the Pletcher 3yos by distance, try it by racetrack. See what figures they run at GP, Mth, Tampa, CD, etc.
Correlation is not causation.
Think many fooled by Florida Derby which was fastest prep on my scorecard.Horse that finished 3rd, not a complete bum, was 14 behind Mat and 12 1/2 behind Upstart.
I remember having this exact discussion with many on this board about how you can\'t bet Pletcher in the Derby before the Super Saver Derby and then having everyone tell me (and a few others) that we just got lucky because he had a perfect trip or caught a sloppy track or the \"good\" horses drew a bad post that year.
JB, I hear where you are coming from on this point and it\'s a fair point
here\'s what I will say
The year that we ran FS in the Derby, our barn was directly across from Todd\'s barn and so I got to see the 5 he ran that year in the Derby up close and personal every single day for a week.
I commented on the board at the time that the one that far and away looked the best was Palice Malice and that the others didn\'t have any meat left on the bone at all by the time we got to Derby week. Palice Malice ran a heck of a race that day and came back to win the big one next out. Revolutionary ran well but didn\'t move forward like he would have needed to to win.
I can promise you this, Materiality looks better and is training better than anything he has run in the Derby in recent years.
May not be good enough to beat AP but he will run his race whether he prepped at GP, Ark or on the moon.
The issue is not specific to Materiality. But re him, the question (one of them) is what \"his race\" is outside Florida.
Quality Road, Dreaming Of Julia... it\'s quite a list of giant Pletcher GP figures, and not just with 3yos. Amazingly, Constitution came back around after he got back there.
Quality Road was pretty awesome up at the Spa figure wise if I remember correctly
Dunkirk ran big figs in Fla and then ran bigger in NY
Commissioner (you knew I had to bring this one up after all the grief you gave me for having a \"man crush\" on him) ran his best figs outside of Florida
we can\'t only look at the ones that prove your point, we have to consider all of them
to that end, look at his Oaks fillies. Plenty of them have brought their race with them to KY. Rags to Riches, Princess of Slymar, etc all ran tops on Derby weekend with the same \"protocols in place\"
now, if Materiality gets to KY and he looks like Uncle Mo or some of the others that fell apart after they left Florida, then I am with you 100% but if he looks on May 1st like he looks today, those stats are meaningless to me
Fairmount, I just went back and looked
There were 7 horses in the Gemologist Derby that had run faster than Gemologist had coming into the race.
Not picking on you or anything b/c I think this proves the whole point about Pletcher and the Derby.
Conventional wisdom is that Gemologist was the horse to beat that year.
No one who uses the TGs should have considered the horse won of the main contenders let alone the horse to beat
the fact that you cited him as a horse that was a) the fastest and b) had the pedigree is case in point that most of the ones that people cite as examples of Pletcher disappointing in the Derby aren\'t good examples at all.
again, really not trying to trying to pick on anyone bc I had others text me \"gemologist\" after my post
Verazzano\'s next out was the Wood win. So wasy Esky\'s. Danza\'s was the Arkansas. Those are grade one\'s next out.
Off Pletcher coming out of Florida. I get it.
This colt also seems to be thriving right now. I get it.
But they don\'t win this race on talent alone. They have to have the mind for it. Not saying he does or he doesn\'t as we don\'t know. I know connections are very high on him. Wish they would ship him to CD now rather than later.
Remember, Curlin looked like a pretty good thing in 2007 off 3 starts as a big Colt. But he couldn\'t make the trip in Louisville, from the 2 post I think. And look what he turned out to be.
This one will be much better odds. But that\'s why I keep saying post position in this one is everything. You ask me, if Mat gets anything inside of 10 with most of the other speed outside him he is a dead duck unless he\'s mature beyond his seasoning.
thanks for the thoughts MJ
I certainly don\'t want to see him down too far inside, that\'s no good for any of them
I think this horse has an amazing mind and demeanor from what I have seen and heard
I think it would be fine if there is some of the speed to his outside but I don\'t want all of the speed to his outside to your point
I honestly can\'t wait to see this race.
I am so so curious as to how fast AP can really go if pressed. Is he one of these that can\'t go any faster if he\'s pressed or have we only just seen the surface of his talent so far (scary thought). If it\'s just scratching the surface, then, as someone referenced earlier, Big Brown\'s Derby best TG is in danger of falling.
I also loved the point someone else made about how Materiality hasn\'t reacted yet.
Remember when many of us (not MJ but many of the rest of us) believed that Big Brown would react to the Florida Derby figure and instead he moved forward?
very exciting stuff
Ahem. Memories can be deceiving.
Rags To Riches never ran in Fla.
Princess Of Sylmar never ran in Fla.
Dunkirk did not run bigger in NY.
Quality Road and Commish ran their best figures in Fla, but like Dunkirk ran well in NY as well.
The point is this-- of the ones who DO run huge figures in Fla, how do they do in other places. And this is a comment about Pletcher, not Materiality.
I like the Curlin comparison to AP this year. He\'ll be something special, but off the three weeks rest, and the big win, perhaps he gets off a step slow as has been written in this forum before.
thanks for the data
I must be missing the point though
these are mostly examples of his horses that either ran well in KY (i.e. the protocols/testing didn\'t prevent them from running their race on Derby/Oaks day) or who ran as fast or faster outside of Fla compared to in Florida.
Did I miss the point of our debate? (entirely possible)
Gerald, that\'s an awesome point
So many times the horses coming off big new tops (as was suggested both Mat and AP are) break slowly and that\'s where MJ\'s point about the post draw comes into play even more
easier to recover from an outside draw than an inside one
Most of the time (definitely not all but most) of the time horses break poorly is because they are sore behind. Not unusual that big efforts create sore back ends in horses
AP back end wasn\'t looking so robust when he got off the plane yesterday but he lost a lot of weight after his last race as well and then he put most of it back on before the Ark Derby. Will be interesting to see how his weight 2 weeks from now compares to today. I would expect him to look significantly different/better in a few weeks than he did getting off the plane yesterday coming right off a big effort race
Only one ran faster outside Fla (Commissioner), and he didn\'t put up big figures in Fla. Dunkirk ran back to his Fla fig once he got away from CD.
Your point was that list disproves or counterbalances the many that have put up huge figures at tracks where, shall we say, circumstances are different than at the Derby or BC, but have not run back to them there. In the case of Mth and GP, very different circumstances. That list does not do that.
Super Saver ran faster at CD on Derby Day than he did in Florida
Ouch buddy. For the record, that one still hurts...
I still remember standing there in between the rain showers that day, not feeling good (turns out I had pneumonia), watching him go by with Calvin on his back and knowing I had 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th all in the right order with some big odds but would be tearing up my tickets anyway.
Super Saver did not run a big figure in his only start in Fla, which was at Tampa (which may or may not be relevant). Did not run at GP. Again-- the issue concerns the many that a) DID run huge figures in Fla, especially GP, and b) how they ran at CD or the BC.
boy, that seems kind of selective/arbitrary
how big is too big?
only GP, not TB?
I don\'t know
I hear you on the point but again, I haven\'t seen one yet that looked bad and ran well so I will just stick with how they look and move during derby week
well that one made up for the bloody fortune you make on this race most other years!
you have to throw the rest of us a bone once in awhile buddy!!!!
Every horse will have a \"knock.\" The Pletcher disciples who support him regarding his Derby success or lack thereof always have an excuse for his poor record.
No matter what horse I list, you will say, Yeah But. Verrazzano is one of my favorites. I said for weeks to a poster here the horse had no shot---it wasn\'t because of his breeding. Now, the defense is he never had the pedigree.
When asked about this issue of a poor Derby record Pletcher\'s claim is that his horses for whatever reason (his words I believe verbatim but I can look if you want exact) don\'t like the surface at Churchill.
The fact remains that Florida is the friendly confines of horse racing. His horses run ridiculous there and I\'ll use his words \"for whatever reason.\" The same reason his horses haven\'t fared well in the Derby. Must be the surface.
I am not \"all for\" or \"all against\" his horses in the Derby
Some I have bet on and won (i.e. Super Saver)
Some I have bet on and lost (i.e. Bandidni)
Some I have successfully thrown out for various reasons (Verazzano, Dunkirk)
Relative to this year\'s Derby, I am saying that if he looks as good in two weeks as he does today, Materiality will run his race.
May not be good enough to beat AP but he will run his race.
Been wrong before, will be wrong again, just my opinion this year
Your question and your answer was: when has Pletcher had the fastest horse going into the race that had the pedigree to make the distance and that horse hasn\'t won? he hasn\'t
Bandini was my next example. I guess your position would he be didn\'t win the Derby because he wasn\'t the fastest one going in or his pedigree wasn\'t good enough. (Neg 3 vs BR neg 5 and FuPeg out of a Dixieland Band Mare).
Or as someone remarked about Gemologist, \"Something must have went awry with the horse.\"
I\'m curious your opinion on Carpe Diem before the race also. I\'m being sincere here. Solving the Pletcher question is critical when he has four horses in the race. I believe his horses to hit the super are:
Impeachment, (6.20-1) Part of 4 horse entry. 3rd. 2000.
More Than Ready, (11.30-1), 4th. 2000.
Invisible Ink, (55.00-1), 2nd. 2001.
Bluegrass Cat, (30.00-1), 2nd. 2006.
Super Saver, (8.00-1), 1st. 2010.
Revolutionary. (6.40-1). 3rd. 2013.
I find it interesting he had 3 horses hit the super in his first two years and only 3 horses hit the super in the 13 years since.
Total record: 40-1-2-2-1
I bet Bandini and crapped out on that one
He broke his leg during the race so I don\'t think we can draw too many conclusions from his poor performance
I don\'t like Carpe Diem for this race too much. He\'s maybe my 5th horse but a very distant 5th behind 4 others who I think are much the best in this group
He\'s not fast enough and I don\'t like how he looked in his last race
there\'s a reason the horse didn\'t get started this year until the TB Derby
J are you at Palm Meadows training center?
I bet Bandini too & I remember as they were loading the horses into the gate he was sweating so much he looked like he just got out of a sauna. I said to myself \"You\'re a dead man.\"
\"Or as someone remarked about Gemologist, \"Something must have went awry with the horse.\"
The reason I said that was that gemologist, after racing in the Kentucky Derby and loosing, then raced in the Haskell, finished 6th in a 6 horse field, and never raced again. OK.
Can any correlation be drawn that 3 of those board finishes were Winstar horses, Bluegrass Cat, Super Saver, and Revolutionary?
joemama Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> \"Or as someone remarked about Gemologist,
> \"Something must have went awry with the horse.\"
> The reason I said that was that gemologist, after
> racing in the Kentucky Derby and loosing, then
> raced in the Haskell, finished 6th in a 6 horse
> field, and never raced again. OK.
A very reliable source says that Gemologist developed a breathing problem in the derby
Jim, I agree with you about Carpe Diem and that Materiality is Pletcher\'s best shot. Other than what I consider the pretty obvious AP, who do you have in your top 4 at this point. I sense from a prior post that Frosted is not high on your list, though he is on mine. Hope you don\'t mind me asking, but since you mentioned that you have 4 I figure it\'s fair game....Thanks
That\'s better than some kind of skeletal issue. No doubt owners get derby fever and may push to run horses when they shouldn\'t run. How much of it is the trainers fault, who knows. But Pletcho\'s win , place and show record is what it is. And it isn\'t very good.
top 4
1) Materiality - already beat this topic to death today so peace now on this topic
2) AP - not bred for it but I have never seen a horse that moves as well as this horse so much better shot of getting the distance than another horse with this same pedigree. Absolutely brilliant moving horse
3) Dortomund - big and fast and Baffert will have him ready if he\'s in the gate
4) International Star - not fast enough on TGs but love running style and athleticism a lot for a race with this many front runner types
covelj70 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Fairmount, I just went back and looked
>
> There were 7 horses in the Gemologist Derby that
> had run faster than Gemologist had coming into the
> race.
>
> Not picking on you or anything b/c I think this
> proves the whole point about Pletcher and the
> Derby.
>
> Conventional wisdom is that Gemologist was the
> horse to beat that year.
>
> No one who uses the TGs should have considered the
> horse won of the main contenders let alone the
> horse to beat
>
> the fact that you cited him as a horse that was a)
> the fastest and b) had the pedigree is case in
> point that most of the ones that people cite as
> examples of Pletcher disappointing in the Derby
> aren\'t good examples at all.
>
> again, really not trying to trying to pick on
> anyone bc I had others text me \"gemologist\" after
> my post
Agree. Gem was a bit slow and never looked like he\'d be at his best going a mile and a quarter. Weak 8-1 shot.
TGJB Wrote:
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> The issue is not specific to Materiality. But re
> him, the question (one of them) is what \"his race\"
> is outside Florida.
>
> Quality Road, Dreaming Of Julia... it\'s quite a
> list of giant Pletcher GP figures, and not just
> with 3yos. Amazingly, Constitution came back
> around after he got back there.
Materiality\'s 1/2 sis, My Miss Sophia, trained by Pletcher, shipped to CD just fine last year when placing in the Ky Oaks.
J
I\'ll consider these 4, however, I always wait till I hear some in-depth analysis from Johnny Weir.
current odds across the pond -
AP 2-1
Dort 5-1
Carpe 8-1
Mubt 12-1
Material 14-1
FiringL 16-1
Frosted 16-1
Upstart 20-1
Int Star 25-1
El Kab 40-1
Danzig M 40-1
SmallTimer the Johnny Weir very witty
Michael D. Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> current odds across the pond -
>
> AP 2-1
> Dort 5-1
> Carpe 8-1
> Mubt 12-1
> Material 14-1
> FiringL 16-1
> Frosted 16-1
> Upstart 20-1
> Int Star 25-1
> El Kab 40-1
> Danzig M 40-1
Their is no way Int Star goes of at 25-1.
Frosted at 16-1
both are 2 or my top 3 horses.
Jimmy Jerkins had Quality Road in Florida as a 3YO. The trainer switch to Pletcher came when he missed the Derby. Pletcher had Dunkirk that year. Now the next year QR FREAKED In the Donn......so to prove TGJB\'s point there have been some Freakish numbers put up by Pletcher in Florida.
Dreaming of Julia - Neg 8
Quality Road - Neg 7
Verrazano - Neg 4
That\'s the trap with Materiality. If he is 12-1 you are right for seeing it that way. Half that then run......
Can any correlation be drawn that 3 of those board finishes were Winstar horses, Bluegrass Cat, Super Saver, and Revolutionary?
__________________________________
Quite honestly, that is the strongest reason I\'m interested in Carpe Diem.
Also, JB\'s point after the Tampa Bay Derby that this horse was being properly prepped for the Derby. Covello\'s comment that something must have been wrong is concerning (not sure if he knows or merely conjecture) but this is the one Pletcher on my radar as a possible use--not sure exactly where or to what degree yet.
Do you have any concern regarding his pre race antics at Keenland? I know that it has caused me to be more cautious regarding this one.
My Information Posted Earlier was inaccurate. Wanted to Correct it since I\'m so difficult on TAP and for others\' benefit, if interested.
___________________________________
I believe his horses to hit the super are:
Impeachment, (6.20-1) Part of 4 horse entry. 3rd. 2000.
More Than Ready, (11.30-1), 4th. 2000.
Invisible Ink, (55.00-1), 2nd. 2001.
Bluegrass Cat, (30.00-1), 2nd. 2006.
Super Saver, (8.00-1), 1st. 2010.
Revolutionary. (6.40-1). 3rd. 2013.
DANZA. (8.70-1). 3rd. 2014.
I find it interesting he had 3 horses hit the super in his first two years and only 4 horses hit the super in the 13 years since.
Total record: 40-1-2-3-1
17.5% in the Superfecta.
Well, you never want to see a Life At Ten situation or a Quality Road BC Classic problem (2009).
I personally won\'t let Diem\'s behavior bother me (since he still ran fantastic) unless something happens up until 5 minutes to post or so which would lead me to cancel my bets.
Verrazano\'s -4 was at MTH after a -2 at GP earlier that year, so this is what Jim is talking about I think. The data is all over the place.
What I\'m more interested in is if on-track observers at GP noticed something \"different\" about the GP surface this year that might make comparisons to prior years not very wise.
I only get anecdotal data from what I read \'cappers tweeting and blogging, but I don\'t remember ever hearing this many mentions of a \"deep, tiring surface\" at GP or a dead rail as I did this year. It seems to me in year\'s past GP always seemed to be a speed/rail favoring tarmac and closers had little shot at all, to the point where some trainers were even complaining at florida derby time.
If that was the case in prior years, it could certainly make sense that horses that ran lights out (Pletcher or not) on those tarmac tracks didn\'t do as well at Churchill because it was a different enough surface. But if this year, something has changed at GP and it is now more deep and tiring than it was in year\'s past on average, there may be something to it.
Or it could be the testing for sure. Or some combination of both.
Gerard Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I like the Curlin comparison to AP this year.
> He\'ll be something special, but off the three
> weeks rest, and the big win, perhaps he gets off a
> step slow as has been written in this forum
> before.
Albarado\'s trip with Curlin as much his undoing as foundation/spacing imo. Drew the 2 hole with a turf closer (Sedgefield) inside him ridden by Leparoux. Julian beats him to the perfect rail stalking spot and Robby winds up three or four wide by the backside. Probably doesn\'t beat Street Sense that day anyway but may have run down Hard Spun (2nd) who had done all the hard work on the pace.
The times are enough to show the difference, I think. Can\'t remember the last time the Fl Derby went in 1:52. That\'s a slow allowance race for 3 yr olds in years past. I believe the FOY was the slowest in history at that distance.
Plenty of FL Derby runners have done well enough at Churchill in May, and it\'s not like Churchill doesn\'t have its tarmac moments (Monarchos!). So, it hasn\'t seemed to hurt the Barbaros/Orbs or even Ice Boxes in the recent past.
thank you very much for posting this, it\'s good info
I just cant get too wrapped up in his \"bad\" record when he won the race in 2010 and had horses hit the board in 2013 and 2014. I think if anyone else did that, we would be talking about them like the next Carl Nafger.
Jim
Stick to your guns. Danza 4 starts prior goes 3rd off layoff finishes 3rd, Revolutionary 6 starts prior goes 2nd off the layoff 2nd, and Super Saver 6 starts prior to the Derby goes 3rd off the layoff and wins. Personally I like Carpe Diem better than Materiality but I\'ll be using both because I think all the TP hate will only add value.
If we get rain, look out! That could spell doom for all the AP lovers and blow up the tote boards.
thanks for the thoughts
why would rain be a problem for AP?
he moved amazing in the slop in the Rebel?
Jim
Watch the Rebel he jumps out to the lead and never gets kick back. Pioneer of the Nile off spring are less than 14% winners on off tracks. Worst sire in the field for an off track. May not mean anything but I see it as a major monkey wrench in the race. Would most likely benefit International Star.
Thanks for those stats
When a horse moves as well as AP moves in the slop, I don\'t think those stats are that useful.
You could convince me that he can\'t get the distance more so than the slop is a problem
Plus POTN ran great in the slop in the Derby
Agree AP a very sweet mover, his forte.AP looked effortless on wet. Wet/distance grass breeding always trumped by performance on the track.Stats more useful before a horse has raced on a wet/grass surface or has gone long. Also conformation relevant when trying to gauge how a horse will do first time wet/distance/grass.
Exactly. AP glided over the slop like he was out for a morning jog. That was also coming off a huge layoff & injury. Could not have been more impressive. What we need to try and figure out is all the horses who have not yet run over the slop yet & are in the field.....if it in fact it comes up wet.
According to the BRIS PPs Pioneerof the Nile has sired 19% for 57 wet track starts as of this past weekend. Where did the <14% come from?
Edit: I looked up AP\'s sheet for last Saturday & it showed POTN\'s wet stats as 20% for 56 starts, confirming the BRIS data.
Edit 2: Here are all BRIS wet track stats for top 24 Derby horses:
Horse-Sire mud stats win %/Dam\'s sire mud stats win %
International Star 16/12
Dortmund 18/16
Carpe Diem 13/18
American Pharoah 19*/16
Frosted 18/16
Mutaahij 27**/7**
Materiality 16/15
El Kabeir 16/18
Upstart 20/14
Far Right 12/18
Itsaknockout 18/17
Firing Line 13**/12
Danzig Moon 17/19
war Story 14/16
Tencendur 18**/13
One Lucky Dane 30**/13
Stanford 17/19
Mr. Z 17/19
Ocho Ocho Ocho 21/12
Bolo 23**/16
Madefromlucky 30**/27
Keen Ice 14/17
Frammento 17**/15
Bold Conquest 14/19
*-less than 100 starts
**-less than 50 starts
You guys are \"mushing\" us with the rain talk!
Is it possible for a horse that seems to be improving or maybe one coming into his own, to overcome his trainer and go on to win the derby; based only on the talents of the horse?
Toppled
I was using Jim Mazur sire ratings which did not include AP\'s Rebel victory. POTN has only had 220 so far make it to the track, so maybe I\'m underestimating his offspring\'s ability to handle an off track.
If CD were to take the rain that Keeneland did before the Bluegrass, it would be soup.
Miff, I\'m in the new winner circle seats which are uncovered. I don\'t want rain at all.
Tommy,
You just described most winners, it\'s mainly the horse.Give me the best horse every time, others can take the best trainer with a much lesser horse.
Mike
http://www.xkcd.com/552/
Can any correlation be drawn that 3 of those board finishes were Winstar horses, Bluegrass Cat, Super Saver, and Revolutionary?
_______________________________________
If it matters to anyone, none of these three ran at Gulfstream Park.
And neither has Carpe Diem.
I\'m fairly certain Materiality will be a toss for me regardless of what I hear/read between now and Derby Day. If that\'s my undoing, so be it. But I\'m confident that is going to be a stand I take. If not for the Upstart problems recently, I would have thrown out a request to wager a head-to-head Upstart vs. Materiality. You can guess who I would take. And it still may work out that way.
To your point about no one else having 2 9f preps. Stanford, Frosted and Mr. Z all have run twice at that distance (also Mubtaahij, as you noted already).
I look at Frosted\'s chart and the only issue I see is the one you raise about the surgery not lasting more than one race. If it holds, I see him being a big contender at a very big price.
That surgery thing is very interesting, considering Alysheba had it before the blue grass and it held for him, but that could be one out of a hundred. Not doubting JCov, but can anyone give a second opinion on that or verify?
Llewellan or a myectomy is the type of surgery Frosted had Google it.
Any word on the estimated date of the surgery? The workout notes I get show him still being noticeably noisy (and only 2 star workouts) on his 3/6 and 3/20 PMM works.
Fairmount1 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Can any correlation be drawn that 3 of those board
> finishes were Winstar horses, Bluegrass Cat, Super
> Saver, and Revolutionary?
>
> _______________________________________
>
> If it matters to anyone, none of these three ran
> at Gulfstream Park.
>
> And neither has Carpe Diem.
>
> I\'m fairly certain Materiality will be a toss for
> me regardless of what I hear/read between now and
> Derby Day. If that\'s my undoing, so be it. But
> I\'m confident that is going to be a stand I take.
> If not for the Upstart problems recently, I would
> have thrown out a request to wager a head-to-head
> Upstart vs. Materiality. You can guess who I
> would take. And it still may work out that way.
I am curious if Winstar had Pletcher run any good horses at Gulfstream? Maybe they know the GP antics and they want no part of that? Was Gulfstream the meet where the Ramseys had horses run out of their skin for several different trainers? I seem to recall, but could be mistaken, about a suggestion that the Ramseys were seeking GP title using something that was evidenced by the performances of their runners regardless of which trainer. Does anybody remember what I am recalling? Is Gulfstream uniquely tolerant about certain substances? It is truly remarkable in this day and age that you need to factor into your handicapping the type of testing a track does or does not do.
Info on a procedure like that should be made public, players should not have to guess.
It was never confirmed that Frosted entrapped.Mc Laughlin said the manner in which Frosted shut down in the FOY led him to think that.Also it was felt that the addition of blinks, aggressive ride coupled with dead GP surface had something to do with FOY performance.
Rosario worked the horse and loved him.Several works after FOY,leading up to Wood, were deemed terrific by Mc Laughlin and his camp bet the Wood with both hands.
Bottom line, if you like Frosted just bet him, way too much speculation about this or that.Think he will take back in the Derby and make a late run like the Wood, his best 2 races were at Aqueduct though.
I think Super Saver was saved by a Borel ride more than anything else. No Borel he doesn\'t hit the super. The only horse I really felt on the Pletcher list that was ever even close to being in contention for winning was Invisible Ink and that was only for a split second. the rest are clunk ups.
Covelj70,
Interesting observation on Carpe Diem. What did you exactly see that you did not like. I saw the horse as a two year old and liked him quite a bit. It seems as a three year old he has done very little growing. Seems to be one of those horses that gets good size early and then goes no where. I did see him at the Blue grass but was not impressed. So I bet against him. The horse smashed a weak field with a Beyer of 95 which could be his best. Don\'t feel there is any move forward with this one. Multiple horses in the Coolmore were better physical specimens. Just my worthless opinion.
Pat
If you tossed from the Derby the horses with a 3 yr old race at GP, you didn\'t cash on several winners, and even more trifectas. Not the angle to play.
Another big work at Palm Meadows, strong finish in 23.47 for last quarter big out.
And importantly, he\'s working with and out working Stanford. A nice horse in his own right that is running nice TG figs (outside of the Florida)!
i am kind of surprised none of you monkeys brought up the great dunkirk who came into the 09 derby on a pair of 0 negatives, 5 weeks rest from the fla derby and had 2 1 1/8 races, 3 total races, all with no 2 yr old foundation.
Don\'t worry. It\'s in the My Miss Sophia string. Keep reading.
aha, missed that one
Materiality = Dunkirk?
I know they are different horses running in different years, but because it was noted, the similarities are there. Pletcher trained Dunkirk and he currently trains Materiality. Here is a brief summary of the running lines for each. (Date Distance Race Finish-Lengths Beyer):
Dunkirk (2009)
1/24 7f MSW 1-5.75 77
2/19 9f ALW 1-4.75 98
3/28 9f Fla Derby 2-1.75 108
5/2 10f Ken Derby 11-19 77
Materiality (2015)
1/11 6f MSW 1-4.25 88
3/6 9f Isla H 1-5.75 104
3/28 9f Fla Derby 1-1.50 110
5/2 10f Ken Derby ????? ???
Fyi Jim.
Both Pletchers (Carpe Diem) are doing well. And each of them, respectively is faster than their two Baffert rivals (AP and Dortmund). And will be double and triple the prices. Hello!!!!
Florida Derby winner Materiality came off the track "on the muscle," as racetrackers say of a horse who is full of himself and showing it.
"He's normally a quiet colt, but sometimes he'll tip you that he's feeling good," Pletcher said. "He's telling us that he came out of that work yesterday very well."
I believe he was schooled in the gate at Churchill this AM. Looked sweaty around the neck area.
Washed out was the term I heard from many an onlooker.
In the casinos there is a wager of which trainer will have the highest finisher.
Baffy -190
Pletch +165
Of course Pletch has four horses to Baffies two.
\"Materiality looked swell from time he left barn to time he returned to it\"
...guess different eyes see different things.
He has the better horses also.
Miff,
Hey u know what they say about beauty. Looked lathered up around the neck to me. Pretty sure it was materiality out there around 8:40 am. Stood in starting gate , then backed out and went back to stable area.
DRF guy followed him all the way. People are going to get anal about irrelevant stuff,information overload time is upon us.
Only thing I\'ll do is wait for saddling/post parade before playing verticals in case total washouts show up. Never saw a more obvious derby winner than Barbaro post parading.
agreed.
I only saw it only computer screen so it must have been pretty bad to show up there. Surely would have been most obvious with a close up high def camera or better yet in person.
DRF:
Materiality might be biggest horse in Derby. Not as tall as Dortmund, but more substance to torso. Pletcher estimates he weighs 1300
Didn\'t have a super-impressive gallop today, apparently.
Where did you hear this from? Mike Welsch stated that the two most impressive horses on the track today were Danzig Moon and Materiality.
Ask, and ye shall receive (http://live.drf.com/nuggets/14102)
Good info - Thanks.
As Mike Watchmaker accurately stated, I\'ll let the first winner from Dubai beat me.
For me its no works on the track. That is negligence.
Questionable figures and company as well.
Theres too many good American Horses to even consider a goofball curve.
joemama Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> 2) He has won twice going 1 1/8, something no one
> else in the field has done .
>
> Sans Mubtaahij. He won twice at 1/1/8 according
> to pp.\'s. Man was that name hard
> to spell.
covelj70 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I remember having this exact discussion with many
> on this board about how you can\'t bet Pletcher in
> the Derby before the Super Saver Derby and then
> having everyone tell me (and a few others) that we
> just got lucky because he had a perfect trip or
> caught a sloppy track or the \"good\" horses drew a
> bad post that year.
For all of Pletchers \"misfortune\" in Derby runs, that Super Saver Derby was like hitting the Power Ball Lottery. They could run that thing a 100 more times and he\'d be fortunate to Pack Borail again.
Didn\'t pay like the Power Ball lottery.
These Dubai horses in the Ky Derby are about as good an investment as a Dairy Queen in the Arctic.
Trainer says they\'re here for the mint juleps.