Seriously...
Never seen a year like this before. Best crop ever, to this point at least.
Freaky against the clock without being fully asked.
Doesn\'t look like 1+1/4 will present a problem. WOW!
WOW again!
That was even more impressive than what I was expecting. This should make for some interesting handicapping discussions over the next few weeks. I\'ll make the first prediction that he is 8/5 at post time for the derby.
No chance he\'s that short.
You are probably right. What was Big Brown in 2008?
TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> No chance he\'s that short.
Agreed, Dortmund will take his share of money. But we just saw the Derby favorite that\'s for sure.
California loves AP, touted by all the West Coast sharpies to be next coming,better than Dortmund,trained by Baffy.He now gets all the bandwagon jumpers on-ers. If he trains well to the race, me thinks under 2-1.
They have a lot of horses to bet this year. Materiality, Carpe Diem, Firing line and Frosted all have to take money. Very surprised if anyone\'s less than 3-1.
More interesting question is whether they get 20.
Come on. He\'s 5/1 with Dortmund 6/1, Carpe Diem 10/1, others 20/1 or more.
Agree with that, outsider needs a miracle to win this derby.Dortmund goes in undefeated as was Big Brown(first time ever sire and offspring went in that way)..and won\'t be favored.
There is no chance AP will be 5-1 unless a knock shows up between now and then.Comes off the last prep everyone saw, huge fig, eased up.
1 American Ph 2.70
2 Dortmund 4.50
3 Carpe Diem 8.00
4 Materiality 11.80
5 Frosted 13.70
6 Mubtaahij 15.10
7 Upstart 16.20
8 Firing Line 20.70
9 International S 21.70
10 El Kaiber 25.30
11 One Lucky Dane 28.40
12 Itsaknockout 30.20
13 War Story 30.20
14 Danzig Moon 36.00
15 Stanford 40.60
16 Far Right 42.40
17 Bolo 44.40
18 Ocho Ocho Ocho 51.60
19 Tencendur 54.50
20 Mr. Z 65.60
Danzig Moon still a question mark. Ami\'s Flatter leaning No b/c of strong crop. Not sure about Upstart from miff\'s report. Any other info, please post. This is a starting point (I think) but open to all suggestions about ordinal ranking
Not sure how big the fig will be. Race Day is a nice horse, but not all that - and he went about 6 tenths quicker.
Plenty fast, though.
Provided they all get to the race, i would say AP and DORT close to co favorites around 4-1. Carpe Diem just behind at 6 or 7-1. And everyone else double digits. Materiality will take some $. Frosted, Firing Line... Might get 18 or 20-1 on International Star who swept the 3 prep races at FG.
Miff
Come on, he\'s going to get bet like Big Brown (colonel John, Pyro) and Fu-Peg (The Deputy,coupled entry Impeachment and Commendable) ? Too many choices with hype, just don\'t see how he can be that low.
mjellish wrote:
\"Might get 18 or 20-1 on International Star who swept the 3 prep races at FG.\"
And as richiebee eloquently states apologies to fig purists......his last race was into a slow pace against a stubborn Stanford. Look at the other route fractions that day.
Wrong,
AP was like 9-2 co favorite with Dortmund before this race.Will enter derby off a \"nice\" top, held,and will sport a perfect pattern. The whole world sees him gallop effortlessly and the bandwagon will be full if AP trains up well.AP will not ship back to Cali but goes Monday to CD.
Prior to this race there was enormous hype in Cali from the major clockers about AP(and Baffert who is under gun not to offend Dortmund\'s owners)
If I was betting him, 5-1 on AP a overlay right now.
Mike
Keen Ice and Frammento sitting at 22 and 23 would run if they can get in.
Both trainers insist they have 10f horses.
So even if you lose four from the current top twenty you have at least those two ready to step in and maybe even the Lexington winner.I think we\'ll have 18-20 in the gate.
Derby fever.
Some offshore casino needs to offer a prop wager for Baffert running 1st and 2nd.......
That\'s an exacta box, the track takes those.
A.P 5/2 Dortmund 9/2 carpe Diem 6 -1 everyone else over 10-1 my 2 cents..
I am by know means a thorograph expert, but how does A.P numbers match up to Bodiemiester\'s?
Yes, I know that. However, you would get much better prop bet odds than you would with that $30 exacta payout. Just my opinion.
Am I the only one that is contemplating if I saw this story with Bodemeister a few years ago? Bode, no starts at 2 I understand and he had to win Ark Derby to get into Ky Derby where he ran a bang up 2nd on the front end.
Hate comparing times from different days much less different years but couldn\'t help but peak:
23.02, 46.55, 1:11.36, 1:36.74, 1:48.71 BODE, Baffert, Zayat, 9+ length victory
22.77, 45.99, 1:10.54, 1:35.94, 1:48.52 AP, Baffert, Zayat, 6+ length victory
Lets not forget that it appears AP was out for a jog the entire way around.
Alternation won the Oaklawn Handicap in 1:49.9 that year. Race Day went two seconds quicker this year.
AP put in a great performance, but it wasn\'t the display Bode put on, by a mile. Everyone needs to take a breath. He won\'t even be going into the Derby with the top figure.
TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> They have a lot of horses to bet this year.
> Materiality, Carpe Diem, Firing line and Frosted
> all have to take money. Very surprised if anyone\'s
> less than 3-1.
>
> More interesting question is whether they get 20.
. . . as \"the madness of crowds\" kicks in . . . if there ever was a year for the lesser speed types to duck the issue, this is it . . . but the moths seem to be attracted to the flame, more than ever.
jp702006 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Yes, I know that. However, you would get much
> better prop bet odds than you would with that $30
> exacta payout. Just my opinion.
Given Vegas\' status as a Los Angeles suburb . . . probably not.
Totally agree. This is 1978 all over again.......Affirmed, Alydar, Believe It.
Good Luck,
Joe B
American Pharaoh 105 Beyer puts him in TG neg-1 territory while not all out late.
Topcat Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> TGJB Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > They have a lot of horses to bet this year.
> > Materiality, Carpe Diem, Firing line and
> Frosted
> > all have to take money. Very surprised if
> anyone\'s
> > less than 3-1.
> >
> > More interesting question is whether they get
> 20.
>
>
> . . . as \"the madness of crowds\" kicks in . . . if
> there ever was a year for the lesser speed types
> to duck the issue, this is it . . . but the moths
> seem to be attracted to the flame, more than ever.
I agree with TGJB -- for some of the horses, entering the race will be ridiculous. It seems to me there should be a HUGE gap in the odds somewhere in this field where something like the 10th best horse should be 30-1 and then the 11th best horse should be like 75-1 and the rest higher -- If I am wrong, I feel like the gap should be wider than that.
This reminds me of the year of Spectacular Bid where very few people wanted to enter against him and some wisenheimer entered a hopeless maiden in the race and the horse actually got the spot in the gate next to the Bid. The difference this year is there are about 6 horses like the bid and about 6 hopeless horses that will enter no matter how insane it is. It will be a real shame if somebody enters a piece of furniture in the race and it ends up affecting the outcome trip wise.
Also, if a bunch of hopeless bums do go in the race at 50-1 instead of the 150-1 they should be....it seems to me that there is a large amount of dead money in the pool....the problem is what is the most effective way to go after that?
jbelfior Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Totally agree. This is 1978 all over
> again.......Affirmed, Alydar, Believe It.
>
> Good Luck,
> Joe B
I remember 1978 well and this is the only other crop I have seen that can compare to that (runner up has to be \'87). Even though \'78 was so strong (and there were other good ones that year you are leaving out), I feel that this year is even better than that. My cousin (Joe Hirsch) always insisted to me that \'57 was a magical year and that he felt so lucky to have been able to witness something like that and that it would be another 100 years before a crop like that would come around again (looks to me like he was off by 42 years). I always felt unlucky to have not been around for \'57.......but it looks like my ship is coming in this year.
The sad thing is that here we have potentially the greatest year in horseracing that this sport can offer, and nobody outside us degenerates are noticing. Why aren\'t the sharp madison avenue types pointing out things like it is not possible to see Muhammad Ali-Joe Frazier, or the \'69 Mets, the likes of Bob Gibson, Tom Seaver, Steve Carlton, or, in football, Joe Namath at his peak (yes, prejudiced on this one due to Namath\'s closeness to Hirsch)......but in OUR sport, you can!! To me, just the marvel of the spectacle this year should sell it in droves. If people understood they were being giving a chance to glimpse Olympus, they should come out in droves.
All those journalists that for years were bemoaning another weak crop owe it to report what this crop is truly like. Where is Drape? The NY Times just doesn\'t want to print any good news about horseracing because they are afraid of turning off their moralistic readership (and I say this being part of that readership in all other categories and being a faithfully daily reader)
Isn\'t it time for the NYT/Joe Dope to be writing some sensational negative bullcrap article about racing?
It\'s so good that if they all make the gate, a horse like El Kabeir will be 40-1 or better.
Good Luck,
Joe B
Making matters worse, Materiality too fast too soon? Scorched PBD ending the last 1/4 of a work in 22.50 over a nice workmate Stanford.Observer said Mat bounced off the track with his ears up like radar.
....had him a toss!
Also:
Upstart temperature normal this a.m. says Rick Violette who is \"taking things a day at a time\" but \"cautiously optimistic\"at this point\"
....was he treated and how did blood come back is what matters
Heard the same thing about Materiality\'s work, from someone who has seen him in the AM before. Said this was his best work ever and he appears to be moving forward off the FL Derby, which is kind of scary.
Still, it\'s pretty tough to play him with confidence knowing he may not have the experience to do what the race calls for. Any other year, at the 5 or 6-1 he would probably be, this would be a play against for me. But at 12 or 15-1 as the 4th or 5th choice??
I, for one, wish they would have the post position draw this week so I could actually start handicapping this race now as I think I may need all 3 weeks to do it. Who winds up next to, inside and outside of who this year probably really matters.
This race could be a $400 trifecta if the favorites run true to form, or a $40,000 trifecta if you can keep the Baffert duo out of the top 3. I am anxious for the seminar this year. Does a handicapper just punch multiple tickets with the captain obvious horses? Or does one shoot the moon and hope for the year making score? I look forward to the banter over the next few weeks!
Miff, the Drape thing is a great line.
Looking at Race Day time, weight ground differentials, that\'s about my seat of the pants guess without having looked at the day.
No other comments until the seminar.
Bring your A game for this seminar JB!!!!
Race Day in a dog fight with the same 3/4 and only 2 ticks slower to the mile than AP\'s race then drew off.
Agree with many that 78 & 87 crops are born again here with this bunch of negative number runners. May they all stay sound for the impending battles.
Now turn the once a year lunatics loose.
Good luck,
Frank D.
Have not seen anyone else other than you reference the fact Race Day carried 116 while Pharoah had 122. Significant, and obviously will be reflected in the TG fig. Looking forward to this Derby.
TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Looking at Race Day time, weight ground
> differentials, that\'s about my seat of the pants
> guess without having looked at the day.
>
> No other comments until the seminar.
SoCalMan2 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Topcat Wrote:
> I agree with TGJB -- for some of the horses,
> entering the race will be ridiculous. It seems to
> me there should be a HUGE gap in the odds
> somewhere in this field where something like the
> 10th best horse should be 30-1 and then the 11th
> best horse should be like 75-1 and the rest higher
> -- If I am wrong, I feel like the gap should be
> wider than that.
>
> This reminds me of the year of Spectacular Bid
> where very few people wanted to enter against him
> and some wisenheimer entered a hopeless maiden in
> the race and the horse actually got the spot in
> the gate next to the Bid. The difference this
> year is there are about 6 horses like the bid and
> about 6 hopeless horses that will enter no matter
> how insane it is. It will be a real shame if
> somebody enters a piece of furniture in the race
> and it ends up affecting the outcome trip wise.
>
> Also, if a bunch of hopeless bums do go in the
> race at 50-1 instead of the 150-1 they should
> be....it seems to me that there is a large amount
> of dead money in the pool....the problem is what
> is the most effective way to go after that?
There are horses entered in stakes racing every week with little chance to win. The Breeders\' Cup races have many horses without a shot at winning.
Buster Douglas wasn\'t supposed to beat Mike Tyson either.
I\'m sure many of us can give a list of \"hopeless\" horses that have won a big race.
Owners pour a lot of money into this sport, if they have a horse eligible to run, I don\'t have a problem with it no matter how hopeless they may seem on paper.
Mine That Bird
Giacomo
Depends on ones bankroll. The obvious answer.
Watch it rain and the track comes up a sloppy mess, then what?
Actually, if you give the group that was close together behind him about what they were running, won\'t come out that fast. Obviously h? though.
Didn\'t look to me like some the ones behind him, including the 2nd place finisher, were preserved with very seriously.
\"Actually, if you give the group that was close together behind him about what they were running, won\'t come out that fast. Obviously h? though\"
JB,
Why would you do it that way when there is another 1 1/8th to tie AP race to?
Mike
Seems like figure makers have to take the internal and external comparisons into account. If a number for one race means you must conclude that in another race all runners moved up, chances are your number is wrong. Isn\'t it always more plausible that with decent sized fields, most horses run in the ballpark of their usual abilities?
TGJB:
My question also...will they get 20?? I hope not! I would love to see a single starting gate; as a fan for 50+ years, this is EASILY the best crop of my lifetime. Nine or ten deep, most have stayed away from each other, plus there has been some MIRACULOUS good handling of horses. Most are coming in sitting on forward moves. My take is AP looked too good, and will go back a little, Upstart and Frosted are major players, and the X-factor is who will make the pace, and how fast?
This is the first Derby in 40 years I will NOT bet, as it is impossible to quantify, and I am dying to see who will win. Best crop since 1966, with Buckpasser on the sidelines!
Basically correct. Given a choice of tying one race to another ang giving 5 horses new tops or concluding the track changed speed and giving them what they usually run, the latter is clearly correct.
Have only seen 3 sets of figs, not TG.All three tied both 1 1/8ths together.
I have no problem with people doing entering their horses that dont belong. Let them. If I had a good three year old who didn\'t figure within 10 lengths of the top horses, in the Derby, I would be happy for people to run their similar three year olds int he Derby instead of against me elsewhere.
I recall also that that same year as Spectacular Bid, Woody Stephens had a very solid 3yo who was no Spectacular Bid, but was still a decent horse. He won something like 7 or 8 3 year stakes races that year by simply avoiding Spectacular Bid while other people banged heads with Spectacular Bid (of course that Belmont happened). Anyway, people can do whatever they want to do, but it seems to me that both Giacomo and Mine that Bird were not nearly as far behind the top horses in their years as the longshots in this Derby will be behind the top horses here.
We have some horses coming into this year\'s derby who have won graded stakes prep races by 15 lengths, fully belong in this race, and they are still going to be 20-1 this year. The true long shots in this year\'s race are going to figure to be at least 15 lengths behind the top horses if not more.....For Giacomo and Mine That Bird, it is hard to believe they looked even 10 lengths out of place. I did not bet either of them, but I also did not give them a figure more than 10 lengths worse than the horses I bet in those years.
Also, I do think there are plenty of horses in this year\'s derby who should definitely be longer than 100-1 but will somehow be only 50-1. It seems like there should be an angle there.
The last time a horse was over 100-1 was the last time a horse was less than 2-1. Miff gave thoughts AP might be that short, I can\'t see it but if he is you may see more \"correct\" prices in the win pool.
2001: Point Given, 1.80-1
Arctic Boy, 101.20-1
Startac, 102.40-1
(Keats was 95-1)
And there were only 17 horses in the race.
Simon Bray finally is noteworthy for something. Longest priced Derby horse in the 21st century (trainer of Startac).
I\'ve made a spreadsheet in Excel that has the ordinal betting rank in the win pool of every horse of the last 15 years (2000-2014), their odds, along with the ordinal ranking of the super finishers and the $2 vertical exotic payoffs. If you are interested, I\'ll be glad to email to anyone that sends me their email address in a person to person message.
You may find it interesting how often the top 4 wagering interests have been part of the tri and super. All 15 years a top 4 betting interest hit the tri and a top 3 betting interest has been in the tri 14 of 15 years.
SoCalMan2 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I recall also that that same year as Spectacular
> Bid, Woody Stephens had a very solid 3yo who was
> no Spectacular Bid, but was still a decent horse.
> He won something like 7 or 8 3 year stakes races
> that year by simply avoiding Spectacular Bid while
> other people banged heads with Spectacular Bid (of
> course that Belmont happened). Anyway, people can
> do whatever they want to do, but it seems to me
> that both Giacomo and Mine that Bird were not
> nearly as far behind the top horses in their years
> as the longshots in this Derby will be behind the
> top horses here.
SoCal:
Specune Noche.
The Woody colt you are referencing was named Smarten, owned by the Ryehill
Farm, ridden by Sam Maple. Smarten was the grand sire of the recently deceased
superstar stallion Smart Strike.
Time for this alta kokker to chime in on this \"great crop\". This is certainly a
fast and talented herd of Derby horseflesh.
Back in the day, before you would give the \"great crop\" designation, you had to
wait a little, to see how the 3YOs performed against older horses after the
Triple Crown races, a little more waiting to see how they themselves performed
as older horses, and even more waiting to see how they panned out at stud.
Different century, different game.
mjellish Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Mine That Bird
A superlative surface/shape read by Calvin . . . and an open rail, which -- to no one\'s surprise -- he hasn\'t gotten a glimpse of, since.
richiebee Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> SoCalMan2 Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
>
>
> > I recall also that that same year as
> Spectacular
> > Bid, Woody Stephens had a very solid 3yo who
> was
> > no Spectacular Bid, but was still a decent
> horse.
> > He won something like 7 or 8 3 year stakes
> races
> > that year by simply avoiding Spectacular Bid
> while
> > other people banged heads with Spectacular Bid
> (of
> > course that Belmont happened). Anyway, people
> can
> > do whatever they want to do, but it seems to me
> > that both Giacomo and Mine that Bird were not
> > nearly as far behind the top horses in their
> years
> > as the longshots in this Derby will be behind
> the
> > top horses here.
>
> SoCal:
>
> Specune Noche.
>
> The Woody colt you are referencing was named
> Smarten, owned by the Ryehill
> Farm, ridden by Sam Maple. Smarten was the grand
> sire of the recently deceased
> superstar stallion Smart Strike.
>
> Time for this alta kokker to chime in on this
> \"great crop\". This is certainly a
> fast and talented herd of Derby horseflesh.
>
> Back in the day, before you would give the \"great
> crop\" designation, you had to
> wait a little, to see how the 3YOs performed
> against older horses after the
> Triple Crown races, a little more waiting to see
> how they themselves performed
> as older horses, and even more waiting to see how
> they panned out at stud.
> Different century, different game.
Smarten . . . the Our Native of his year.
richiebee Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> SoCalMan2 Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
>
>
> > I recall also that that same year as
> Spectacular
> > Bid, Woody Stephens had a very solid 3yo who
> was
> > no Spectacular Bid, but was still a decent
> horse.
> > He won something like 7 or 8 3 year stakes
> races
> > that year by simply avoiding Spectacular Bid
> while
> > other people banged heads with Spectacular Bid
> (of
> > course that Belmont happened). Anyway, people
> can
> > do whatever they want to do, but it seems to me
> > that both Giacomo and Mine that Bird were not
> > nearly as far behind the top horses in their
> years
> > as the longshots in this Derby will be behind
> the
> > top horses here.
>
> SoCal:
>
> Specune Noche.
>
> The Woody colt you are referencing was named
> Smarten, owned by the Ryehill
> Farm, ridden by Sam Maple. Smarten was the grand
> sire of the recently deceased
> superstar stallion Smart Strike.
>
> Time for this alta kokker to chime in on this
> \"great crop\". This is certainly a
> fast and talented herd of Derby horseflesh.
>
> Back in the day, before you would give the \"great
> crop\" designation, you had to
> wait a little, to see how the 3YOs performed
> against older horses after the
> Triple Crown races, a little more waiting to see
> how they themselves performed
> as older horses, and even more waiting to see how
> they panned out at stud.
> Different century, different game.
Dobre utro, Richichik!
While I have no problem with your metrics, it seems to me that this hasn\'t stopped reporters over the years from bemoaning right about now the weakness of the current crop. It seems that Geometry requires some sort of non-bemoan at this point.
The only other thing I would point out is something for which I must give credit to my dvorodni brat -- some crops are some times so good that you do not need to wait. I was not around for it, but as I understand it, going into the 1957 Derby, everybody already understood at that early point what a special group of horses those 3yos were. While it is true that there always remain tests of time, did anybody really need any extra time to judge the tremendous machine after his super-equine Belmont? By the same token, we need to avoid another Devil\'s Bag. While it may still be too early, I think we need to be vigilant because the immortal moment may be just around the turn any second now.
I\'m not sure what all the raving is about. Obviously, I haven\'t seen the figures from the last round of preps, but the number of horses who have run a \"1\" or better seems consistent with last year, no one has overcome a brutal trip, and no one is running Big Brown figures. Admittedly, the number of colts who ran fast figures at two and are still producing them is higher, the number of pairs suggests something really good may be coming, and some have won like there\'s more in the tank, but we haven\'t seen it yet.
BitPlayer Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I\'m not sure what all the raving is about.
> Obviously, I haven\'t seen the figures from the
> last round of preps, but the number of horses who
> have run a \"1\" or better seems consistent with
> last year, no one has overcome a brutal trip, and
> no one is running Big Brown figures. Admittedly,
> the number of colts who ran fast figures at two
> and are still producing them is higher, the number
> of pairs suggests something really good may be
> coming, and some have won like there\'s more in the
> tank, but we haven\'t seen it yet.
This is Richiebee\'s point. Maybe we need to wait. Here is my question, has anybody every run a negative fig in the Derby and not won? A Negative fig and not hit the board? It seems to me it is possible that these sorts of things could occur this year but we have to wait and see. One of the exciting things about 1973 was that Sham also broke the 2 minute barrier and it was way back to third. Upstart strikes me as having a sheet in the region of Big Brown and Smarty Jones and he will probably be 5th or 6th choice this year.
The interesting horse to me is Firing Line....here is a horse that ran Dortmund tough two races in a row and then exploded when he was put in against tomato cans. It seems like undefeated Dortmund is the consensus second choice. It also seems to me that you have to view Firing Line and Dortmund as at least very close in expected effort level. Even if Dortmund beats him, it isn\'t going to be by much. To me, Firing Line seems much more likely to work out a trip than Dortmund. YET, Firing Line figures to be 3 to 4 times the odds of Dortmund. I very much like the way he has been prepared (with Eddery Off being the only issue). I just can\'t imagine a derby ever where a horse like Firing Line will be the odds this horse will be.
The issue is the depth. I don\'t have all the figs either, but I\'m pretty sure the horses with negative numbers are:
American Pharoah
Dortmund
Firing Line
Upstart
Materiality
El Kabeir
I would think Frosted ran in that neighborhood, and Carpe Diem probably got close. Upstart\'s best is in Big Brown territory. He\'ll be 20-1. El Kabeir, 30-1. None of these were in a sprint or even mile races. And I\'m leaving out the negs from horses on the sidelines (khozan, daredevil, Texas Red, etc)
A negative number is almost always good enough win. Find me another year with that kind of depth.
SoCalMan2 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> BitPlayer Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > I\'m not sure what all the raving is about.
> > Obviously, I haven\'t seen the figures from the
> > last round of preps, but the number of horses
> who
> > have run a \"1\" or better seems consistent with
> > last year, no one has overcome a brutal trip,
> and
> > no one is running Big Brown figures.
> Admittedly,
> > the number of colts who ran fast figures at two
> > and are still producing them is higher, the
> number
> > of pairs suggests something really good may be
> > coming, and some have won like there\'s more in
> the
> > tank, but we haven\'t seen it yet.
>
> This is Richiebee\'s point. Maybe we need to wait.
> Here is my question, has anybody every run a
> negative fig in the Derby and not won? A Negative
> fig and not hit the board? It seems to me it is
> possible that these sorts of things could occur
> this year but we have to wait and see. One of the
> exciting things about 1973 was that Sham also
> broke the 2 minute barrier and it was way back to
> third. Upstart strikes me as having a sheet in
> the region of Big Brown and Smarty Jones and he
> will probably be 5th or 6th choice this year.
>
> The interesting horse to me is Firing Line....here
> is a horse that ran Dortmund tough two races in a
> row and then exploded when he was put in against
> tomato cans. It seems like undefeated Dortmund is
> the consensus second choice. It also seems to me
> that you have to view Firing Line and Dortmund as
> at least very close in expected effort level. Even
> if Dortmund beats him, it isn\'t going to be by
> much. To me, Firing Line seems much more likely to
> work out a trip than Dortmund. YET, Firing Line
> figures to be 3 to 4 times the odds of Dortmund.
> I very much like the way he has been prepared
> (with Eddery Off being the only issue). I just
> can\'t imagine a derby ever where a horse like
> Firing Line will be the odds this horse will be.
Something in the back of my mind tells me there is, but someone here will know: Is there some sustained KD ped trend about Storm Cat on top (or bottom) being great (or death) in KD?
I think you\'re more generous with negative numbers than TGJB. We\'ll see.
No Storm Cat descendant has ever won the Derby. Many have run second (Menifee, Lion Heart, Bluegrass Cat, Ice Box, Bodemeister and, most recently, Commanding Curve).
Storm Cat had 8 runners last year and 3 of them finished in the last four spots.
Six horses in the 2013 Derby were Storm Cat\'s and four held down the last four positions.
Eight more ran in 2012 and five wound up in the bottom half of the field.
Another eight ran in 2011 and all failed, including the two favorites.
Horses with Storm Cat in their pedigrees have run last each of the last four runnings.
That said, I would not toss out a talented descendant of SC just based on this. I might, however toss out a talented horse who has never ran in a race with more than 9 horses in it, like American Pharaoh. No horse in the last 35 years has won without facing 9 or more opponents. Something to be said for at least some experience in a larger field.
As for Storm Cat horses that are candidates for the bottom rung this year: Stanford and El Kabeir are my guesses.
Carpe Diem , storm cat descendant , who are 0-44 in derbies, thats rough, no?
Agreed. However I would not be surprised to see Pharoah and Dortmund both under 4-1 with one under 3-1. Maybe Dortmund with much superior breeding.
Have any of the Storm Cats looked as good going in as Dortmund, Carpe Diem, or American Pharoah?
Tobasco Cat catches an off track(Go For Gin) in the Derby before winning the Preakness and Belmont. 3rd choice behind Holy Bull and Brocco.
PonyBologna Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> No Storm Cat descendant has ever won the Derby.
> Many have run second (Menifee, Lion Heart,
> Bluegrass Cat, Ice Box, Bodemeister and, most
> recently, Commanding Curve).
>
> Storm Cat had 8 runners last year and 3 of them
> finished in the last four spots.
>
> Six horses in the 2013 Derby were Storm Cat\'s and
> four held down the last four positions.
>
> Eight more ran in 2012 and five wound up in the
> bottom half of the field.
>
> Another eight ran in 2011 and all failed,
> including the two favorites.
>
> Horses with Storm Cat in their pedigrees have run
> last each of the last four runnings.
>
> That said, I would not toss out a talented
> descendant of SC just based on this. I might,
> however toss out a talented horse who has never
> ran in a race with more than 9 horses in it, like
> American Pharaoh. No horse in the last 35 years
> has won without facing 9 or more opponents.
> Something to be said for at least some experience
> in a larger field.
>
> As for Storm Cat horses that are candidates for
> the bottom rung this year: Stanford and El Kabeir
> are my guesses.
Thanks. Knew someone would come through.
It\'s just that (at least the surface) depth is remarkable.