Re: Arkansas Derby
I just became aware that a maiden may win enough points to enter the Kentucky Derby. Win the Space is 30/1 and less than a point slower than American Pharaoh on the free RagozinPPs ROTW.
Further, American Pharaoh has no pattern he keeps getting 6+\'s and that, I\'ve read, is not good. If it weren\'t for the fact that he can\'t beat Maidens @ OP I would be tempted to bet him to win as it is easy to imagine continued improvement on such a lightly raced horse stretching out. It is also easy to imagine other performances.
I am currently searching for a proposition bet between he and Far Right as to which will be last at the first call. Because the Mdn is moving in from sprints I have confidence he will smoke Far Right and his patient (Zenyatta experienced) pilot Mike Smith.
I hope the M/L holds up, then there is that Lucas guy. Hard to get past the prejudice of the hype. Not only had I given AP the 100 pts but picturing how he looked in roses. I guess they will have to run the race like always.
Here\'s a different take on Pharoah, who also has 3 straight matching #s on TG sheets:
He ran fast in his 2nd race on poly and paired that number when switched to dirt and stretched out. Then he was out injured the rest of his 2yo year.
He comes back & immediately runs back to his 2yo top, a sign of good health & an impending explosive forward move.
I seriously doubt that Win the Space\'s #s on TG will be as close to AP\'s #s as Rags has them. Also keep in mind that 7 on Rags was at 7f & the Ark Derby is 1 1/8-big difference. BTW-both WiS\'s races were against SA maidens not OP maidens.
Toppled:
Looking forward, what numbers do you think set AP up perfectly for Kentucky. If he runs a >=TG -1 (which wouldn\'t surprise me) then one needs be concerned with a May bounce?
Better, he runs a +- 0 suggesting more available. Or most confusing he pairs again. Is he a toss if he backs up?
Fame and Power in the Lexington might tell us how your maiden will do at Oaklawn. Lots of services gave that SA race a big number, but I\'m skeptical. The top 3 all ran huge?
Far Right isn\'t the fastest, but loved how he won his last - strong finish as the high weight. Seems a horse the jock can maneuver at will. Planned layoff. Great last drill. Don\'t see him catching AP, but will be a strong 2nd.
It was a fast maiden race, but the reason Jake has him almost as fast as AP has to do with the Cal sprint/route problems Ragozin has, and which I\'ve been talking about here for a decade. They have the sprints 2 points too fast relative to routes, which is why they have him only 1 point slower than AP when we have him 3 points slower.
I think he can go a long way forward without an anticipated bounce. This is Baffert, not Pletcher, so I\'m not concerned as much with a huge forward move like a lot of the Pletcher failures. I couldn\'t find a Baffert horse similar to AP in the archives, so I\'ll revert to the TGIs. His sire\'s TGI at 3 is 5 points better than at 2. If Pharoah goes -3 in Ark, I could still see him pairing in the Derby. On the other hand, if it\'s an easy race I could see him run a 0 to 1 h? and have the big forward move in the Derby. either way, I\'m expecting a -2 to -3 in the Derby, as long as he stays healthy & makes it. If he runs a -3 & gets injured everyone will say he ran too fast in Ark.
A Good tip! I\'ll watch the Lexington with interest.
Mmm...Fame and Power looks a lot faster than Win The Space. That last fraction gives me confidence in the stretch out. Plus Baffert. I was skeptical of the Mdn before TGJB made his point. Apparently connections are optimistic and why not at this point. 30/1 still moves me, I\'ll use on the bottom (tris & super) but I\'m back to the most obvious exacta of the week. Wait, I can\'t play an exacta paying ?? 3/1.
Good Luck To Those That Do!
El Paso
I took a bite of the Maiden at 200 to 1 to win the Ky Derby. A 3rd place in the Ark might get him in.
Also be aware that in addition to Fame and Power in the Lexington (KEE 10th; 5:18p ET), Wolf Man Rocket -- between Fame and Win the Space in that SA 7f MSW -- runs in the Northern Spur (OP 10th; 6:41p ET).. With any progress from the 4.25, Win the Space appears to have an authentic opportunity to come with one run and pick up a real piece.
With Fame as the heavy fav most likely, what about TAP? I normally love when he has a private purchase off of a trainer that doesn\'t seem to be one of the nation\'s premier trainers and the horse has already flashed at least some ability. Plus he has a history of success in the Lexington. And this year is no exception with his 3yo\'s.
However, tomorrow, I\'m hesitant. I recall School on a Hill, a Covello purchase from the same trainer off a maiden win. School never won a race for Covello who ended up (happily?) losing him in a $40k claim.
Curious Jcovello\'s thoughts on if he would claim a horse from that trainer again or if his experience would affect his opinion on this horse. These are the Danza connections from a year ago. Obviously 10 points gets you nowhere near the Derby but I find it interesting they are starting in the Lexington, not the Ark Derby....seems like a more \"realistic\" spot.
Regardless, my opinion is to use the horse in the pick 4 but I can\'t single him....if not for the School on a Hill memory in my mind, I probably would. Others thoughts?
That Santa Anita Maiden Race sure got its fair share of attention. Now that 30/1 is probably a pipe dream I have a few updates to my thinking.
First, perspective - it is 4:30 a.m. and F1 qualifying just finished for the Chineses GP no surprises MBZ. I\'ve just watched a series of top flight Australian races and Criterion who I think just won a spot in this fall\'s breeders cup couldn\'t have looked more impressive in the Queen Elizabeth Stakes. So I\'m reviewing my thoughts about \"moving day\" in the U.S.
1. Jordan Spieth in the Georgia race comes back to the field, at least somewhat.
2. George Papaprodromou I discover bats 20% with shippers not bad! Third place in the Arkansas Derby pays $100K and fourth $50K. A little less than winning the Lexington or the Northern Spur respectively vs horses that beat him. All three of which are very likely to be won by Baffert. Who needs points when you have $\'s Prepping for the Preakness keeping with the idea of fresh rested horses.
Profiling The Arkansas Derby
I\'m going out on a limb in this one - I don\'t think AP will lead gate to wire. Mr. Zee & Bridgets Big Luvy will set the early (1/2 - 3/4 mile pace, But I expect both to wilt. Madefromlucky will press again looking to run second or third and get to the KD. The maiden will not be far back but rather mid pack and could inherit 3rd. Far right will be and far back for too long.
To those who fancy pace as a component of their handicapping it is worth noting that American Pharaoh is arguably the fastest finishing horse (too date) of the U.S. based derby hopefuls. Also most trainers know by now you can\'t beat Baffert by following him.
Consequently, I\'ve concluded the value in the race is in beating Big Race Mike Smith (not easy). Exacta under AP with the maiden. Trifecta AP / Madefromlucky / Win the Space. That\'s my story and I\'m sticking to it until this afternoon, no scratches please.
The million dollar question is what if American Pharaoh does get headed in silly fast early fractions how will he handle it?
Fairmount1 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> With Fame as the heavy fav most likely, what about
> TAP? I normally love when he has a private
> purchase off of a trainer that doesn\'t seem to be
> one of the nation\'s premier trainers and the horse
> has already flashed at least some ability. Plus
> he has a history of success in the Lexington. And
> this year is no exception with his 3yo\'s.
> Regardless, my opinion is to use the horse in the
> pick 4 but I can\'t single him....if not for the
> School on a Hill memory in my mind, I probably
> would. Others thoughts?
Ah, Todd \"Preps\" Pletcher. Good in this race, 24% with new acquisitions. Plops
one of America\'s top jinetes in the saddle. How much of a forward move
will he make? It needs to be significant if he is to have an impact and the
connections will make the price here a cause for circumspection.
Without offending figure and pattern playing purists, I must point out that my
impression is that there will be a hotly contested pace here among Divining Rod
(who \"got the bounce out of the way\" in his last effort at Tampa), stretch out
sprinter Henry Jones, and Fame and Power.
Might set up for Asmussen\'s Tiznow RJ, whose TG #s in the mile and 70 FG races
make him arguably fast enough to compete with these. Could creep up from the
5/1 ML with plenty of attention going to those princes of Derby Prep, TAP and
Bob Baffert.
One of these days Alice....Bang, zoom!!!!
Good Luck,
Joe B
Upstart Spiked a fever and missed his work this am.Could be disasterous if not gone in a day or so without use of heavy meds.
I like your thoughts. I will also be using Bold Conquest underneath. He looks like he could be sitting on a nice forward move. His 20-1 morning line makes him even more enticing. Good luck today!
Here\'s the pace scenario I expect: I see it differently that the race shape, I see Mr Z alone on the lead (unless he runs like he did in La. where he won\'t be a factor very long). If anyone wants to go with him it\'s up to them. American Pharoah sits either 2nd behind a loose on the lead Mr Z or 3rd if someone goes out with him. I\'m sure the Zayats have told Lukas something like-Go ahead and wing it loose on the lead, we need to see how American Pharoah runs after a target. If you win it, great, we\'ll have another horse in the Derby, but, don\'t do anything that screws up American Pharoah, like drifting into him in the stretch if he\'s going by.
The only horse that I think can beat AP is the other Zayat, Mr Z. That\'s not what I expect & AP will be singled in my P3s & P4s. But I don\'t see anything close to Mr Z down the backstretch. Most likely: AP goes by Z early in the stretch & then Z gets swallowed up by the closers, but depending on how comfortable he is on the front end Z could hang on for 2nd.
richiebee Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Fairmount1 Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > With Fame as the heavy fav most likely, what
> about
> > TAP? I normally love when he has a private
> > purchase off of a trainer that doesn\'t seem to
> be
> > one of the nation\'s premier trainers and the
> horse
> > has already flashed at least some ability.
> Plus
> > he has a history of success in the Lexington.
> And
> > this year is no exception with his 3yo\'s.
>
> > Regardless, my opinion is to use the horse in
> the
> > pick 4 but I can\'t single him....if not for the
> > School on a Hill memory in my mind, I probably
> > would. Others thoughts?
>
> Ah, Todd \"Preps\" Pletcher. Good in this race, 24%
> with new acquisitions. Plops
> one of America\'s top jinetes in the saddle. How
> much of a forward move
> will he make? It needs to be significant if he is
> to have an impact and the
> connections will make the price here a cause for
> circumspection.
>
> Without offending figure and pattern playing
> purists, I must point out that my
> impression is that there will be a hotly contested
> pace here among Divining Rod
> (who \"got the bounce out of the way\" in his last
> effort at Tampa), stretch out
> sprinter Henry Jones, and Fame and Power.
>
> Might set up for Asmussen\'s Tiznow RJ, whose TG #s
> in the mile and 70 FG races
> make him arguably fast enough to compete with
> these. Could creep up from the
> 5/1 ML with plenty of attention going to those
> princes of Derby Prep, TAP and
> Bob Baffert.
Crept up to 11/1, 5 MTP
P-Dub Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> > Could creep up from the
> > 5/1 ML with plenty of attention going to those
> > princes of Derby Prep, TAP and
> > Bob Baffert.
>
> Crept up to 11/1, 5 MTP
P-Dub:
\"Crept\" also a good description of the way Tiznow RJ ran.
Hope all is well with you.
richiebee Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> P-Dub Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > > Could creep up from the
> > > 5/1 ML with plenty of attention going to
> those
> > > princes of Derby Prep, TAP and
> > > Bob Baffert.
> >
> > Crept up to 11/1, 5 MTP
>
> P-Dub:
>
> \"Crept\" also a good description of the way Tiznow
> RJ ran.
>
> Hope all is well with you.
Geezus, nobody makes me laugh harder than you.
Flipping between Masters, horse racing, and A\'s game. Wife attending a baby shower. The blind one resting on my lap.
Nothing like an empty house to enjoy a day of sports and gambling.
\"Moving Day\" was all it was cracked up to be!
Several of many memorable thoughts from the last 48 hrs.
1. American Pharoah now has a pattern other than pairs very much like Toppled predicted. Again that\'s Pharoah accent on OAH!
2. Jordan Spieth did not back up and continues to impress but as one of my favorites sang... It\'s not over till it\'s over.
3. The maiden gave Boston & I a thrill rallying into the stretch and as TGJB insisted is just not very fast. He did smoke Far Right early no wonder I couldn\'t find any takers on my 1st fraction proposition.
4. Mike Smith is tough to beat. The $1 exacta paid $3.50 wish I\'d had it in retrospect. AJ?
5. Twice horses trained by BB rallied from behind the pace to win today. Putting to rest once and for all my rumor that BB uses big cats to train his runners. But where are his slow ones?
6. Like birdying the 18th winning the last makes me want to come back.
Those birdies on the 18th will kill ya.
Last year I picked up the sticks again for the first time in 25 years. Back then I was fairly good, but not as good as I wanted to be or thought I could be, so I threw in the towel.
Played once a week, early Sunday mornings, snuck out on the occasional Friday or three. After about six weeks played a nice mid-80\'s round at a respectfully difficult public course in Albany. Thought I\'d be down in the 70\'s at least once after that, but started going in the wrong direction.
Two or three weeks into the descent I thought, well, maybe I\'ll wrap it up for the season now, but it was still only early August, snuck out one Friday to play the Spa (Home Of The Thoro Graph Open). Played horribly all day but was having fun, my Dad was with me, and at our ages, after all we been through, just being out there with him was enough.
After playing 17 holes of utterly putrid golf that had me thinking, no seriously, THIS IS IT, I am done for the year, I get up on the 18th tee and rip a drive about 285, 290 down the center of the fairway, hit a soft, mile high wedge in to about twelve feet, and sink the birdie putt.
I played until the end of October, and never shot better than 95 the rest of the way, and shot way more than that several times.
&&&
In the minority here, it seems, but I\'m more inclined towards miff\'s view that AP will be bet hard come first Saturday.
Last prep of the season will stand out in public memory, and he made it look like a workout. I think if he trains really well leading into the race, the hype is going to be tremendous.
Or maybe this is wishful thinking on my part. At 9/5 in a field this deep with tasty options, I\'ll take my shots against him and if he beats me, so be it. At 5 or 6 to 1 the decisions get trickier. Would be sick if he busted me out of a P4 at those odds.
Been following the game since 1987, and in all the years since, never have seen a crop as good as that one, and never thought I would. It\'s still early, but I\'m starting to think I was wrong.
If you hit a drive 290 on 18 and hit wedge, either a) you were playing the white tees, or b) you\'re really effin long. I hit one that far from the blues and couldn\'t get there with a 4 iron.
Meanwhile at the Masters, I think the Kid hits the wall on the back 9 tomorrow.
Will anyone be close enough to pick up the pieces?
Oh, I play bad enough from the whites, thank you. Playing from the blues would be cruelty. They move that tee box around, too. I was about 110-120 out when I hit that wedge. If they had the whites up that day the drive may have been less than 285-ish, I was just going off the scorecard.
But yes, I am in fact fairly long. Unfortunately, I am often long into the rough, if I am lucky, and long into the wooded areas. At least at the Spa it is often easy enough to find your ball in those woods, and sometimes you can even hit it out of there. On the other hand, hit a drive into the thicket (or is it fescue?) to the left of the 1st tee one time last year; found the ball and decided to hit it. Hit it literally about nine yards, and couldn\'t find it.
Have had some advisors suggesting a switch to the three wood off the tee this year...
I paid no attention today, limited free time was spent picking the last-place finishers in Keeneland\'s late pick five. Surprised to check just now and see him only up four. Four\'s close enough to make things at least a little uncomfortable for him, especially with a bogey or two on the first five or six holes.
Have missed most of the whole thing but have some time to watch tomorrow, hope someone or more makes a run to make it interesting.
Mike Welsch:
Rick Violette reports Upstart continues to do well, temperature remains normal, could return to the track as early as Tuesday