I\'m kinda surprised there hasn\'t been any banter on the weekend yet, so maybe we can get some discussion started here:
I don\'t know anything about fig-making, but I\'m going to assume Dortmund gets somewhere around a -1 for his effort in the Santa Anita Derby (based on the Beyer). If that is the case, his new top wasn\'t too big of a move, so a pair up or a new top probably puts him at the very worst in the trifecta on the first Saturday in May, and likely in the winner\'s circle. Main concern is that he seemed to idle a bit coming down the stretch and his final eighth was in :13.
Carpe Diem won as he was expected to, but was a bit surprised at the low Beyer of 95. Maybe that puts him in the 3 range? That\'s quite a regression of the big Tampa fig from last month.
A 3 doesn\'t seem right, though if you assume that Danzig Moon gets a new top. I would think that surely Danzig Moon moved forward a point or two with his decent rally down the stretch and if anything ran at least a 2 point improvement. So maybe you could inch Carpe Diem up to a 1 1/2 or a 2?
Frosted\'s Wood baffles me. He earned a 103 Beyer, which I would think puts him in the 0 range or maybe even faster with ground loss factored in. His effort was workman-like, running down a non-descript New York bred runner that prior to yesterday was not on any Triple Crown radar. The rest left in the wake are all horses who are believed to be the sort that don\'t want to go this far.
When I think of Frosted\'s pedigree (Tapit x Fast Cookie), I think of a miler. Tapit is known for siring quick runners that are fast up to 8 1/2 furlongs (despite Untapable and Tonalist). Frosted\'s mama, however, Fast Cookie, won the Cotillion at 8.5 furlongs, too. So maybe this one wants more ground than I had originally thought.
Great weekend of racing. Incredibly brilliant crop of 3 year olds. Feel free to tear my analysis apart, just be nice about it.
Happy Easter to all.
I don\'t quite get the \"El Kabeir doesn\'t want to go any farther\" meme. This is two races in a row where he was running at the end. Had the same final 1/8th as Frosted. Sure doesn\'t have the look of a horse wanting to drop anchor.
One of the things that will benefit Dortmund at CD is that his running style means he likely won\'t lose much ground to the field. Lots of the others will have to run a significant number (-2 or something) to have a shot, if he runs his race.
Frosted and Frammento both ran well this weekend coming off two grueling preps on the deep GP circuit (the latter on the dead Keeneland rail). Will be very interested in the clocker reports for Upstart and Materiality derby week.
Would add that Carpe Diem went out and laid down methodical 12 and change 1/8ths for the entire race. That is a sign of a colt that will get the 1 1/4. This is a serious racehorse, and Bluegrass effort should set him up perfectly for KY. If I owned him he would be at Churchill to train for the next month. They have to handle the CD surface anyway. So why go anywhere else?
Dortmund very impressive. Seems more athletic than most huge colts. I think he will rate fine, but I don\'t know how he would respond to getting stopped. Would say he needs an outside post and likely to get a wide trip to stay in clear, so he\'d have to run a really big number to win. But that big, fluid stride of his is something to see.
Not impressed by the Wood runners. At first glance I would doubt Frosted repeats his number or moves forward in his next unless he recovers quickly. He was all in for that race.
Still early and lots of training to watch.
Glad to hear this observation re: El Kabeir. Just curious what you make of his race (and what he ran). It looked like he was well wide around the second turn--and he looked on the backstretch like he was getting sprayed with a lot of kickback. Terranova\'s comments after the race made me think he was taking dirt grapeshot back there... I do think that as much as I have been hoping Chuckie Lopez might get his first Derby mount that it might be wise for the connections to look for another pilot.
MJ,
Dortmund has had the lead all the way around in his last couple. Maybe with a bad post and Firing Line and Stanford to his inside, he\'s wide. But otherwise I see him being the one with the ground saving trip.
Edit: Sorry. Meant American Pharaoh instead of Firing Line.
We\'ll then we disagree AJ. Because he\'s not a good breaking colt and this will be a 20 horse field. Often the half mile is quick, in 45 or 46 and change. So if he has his typical break, has to rush up to clear and get over to save ground while going 45 to the half that\'s not going to be a good thing.
I don\'t see him doing that. He\'s come from off the pace before. I think the connections will let him break, get that big stride going, then keep him wide and out of trouble so he doesn\'t get stopped.
This is all pre mature. We\'re still a month out and Dortmund might not even make it to the race. But you\'ve seen him run. If he was yours would you be more worried about saving ground or being stopped?
Seems more like a \"keep him fit, keep him happy, push the primer button and then on race day ride him as if he\'s the best colt\" type to me.
whoops please ignore this
My own guess is that TG will have Dortmund a couple of points slower than you suggested (TGJB being of the opinion that Beyer has California too fast) and Carpe Diem a couple of points faster (because Beyer does not consider ground loss or weight). The Wood is a mystery to me, and trying to make it fit with the Gazelle just makes matters worse.
If I had to draw an analogy from the Wood, I think the easiest comparison would be to relate Frosted to Wicked Strong. Both had their issues in Florida, while showing great promise prior to that. Wicked Strong\'s Wood figure was strong and I have a feeling that Frosted\'s will be similar.
Dortmund will have to get a clean trip so that his galloping rhythm is not interrupted.What he lacks in brilliant quickness, he makes up for with his long gallop.Have to gamble that in a 20 horse field he may not get his preferred running style, ie gallop them to death.
SA Derby figure,on the clock,comes up like TG neg -1/2 with a new top for 2nd horse Dane.In any event, Dort goes to Derby with a rather nice line and will be 2nd choice assuming,American Pharaoh, whistles on Sat vs The Little Sisters Of The Poor.
Mike,
Off topic but any repercussions expected from the huge brawl at the Racino on Friday? Might tend to diminish one\'s \"guest experience.\"
Was wondering if anyone had bet on the Fantasy Stake at Oaklawn Saturday. And any thoughts on the stretch run, objection by the jockey and results of the race after viewing the head on.
The race chart claimed that the jockey of the place horse lodged the claim of foul but the claim of foul had to be lodged by the jockey on the 8, Joe Rocco.
Ha Caradoc,
At night on weekends a very different crowd(bands,entertainment) Nice place but always a bit seedy. My wife, a sicko slot sucker,likes to go once in a while weekdays, I go have my experience enhanced at the \"new\" Aqueduct,a venue at deaths door.
Not sure any adverse affect from the brawl on racing.Video on you tube was quite the donnybrook. Cops looking for a scumbag thug that was involved who had a gun which he fired in the parking lot.
Mike
\"Sicko slot sucker,\" huh. Somebody called me that once when I was a kid, I kicked his ass.
Genting brilliant marketing. They send out fliers telling suckers they have like $20-30 bucks in \"free play\" waiting at the racino.Natch, the suckers rush out there and blow up a couple of hundred while getting their free play.
Suckers almost as dumb as horse players!
My son calls me the \"slots whisperer.\" If people understood the progression pays it would save them lots of dough.
I will have to take another look at his starts, but according to the charts, he broke on top in two of his last three. It\'s also worth asking who else in the prospective field has proven comfortable on the lead.
But as you say, it\'s still early, and the draw will have a lot to say about it anyway. Cheers.
smalltimer Wrote:
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> My son calls me the \"slots whisperer.\" If people
> understood the progression pays it would save them
> lots of dough.
Smalltimer:
Are \"progression pays\" at the slots something like \"condition moves\" on Ragozin?
Not to discredit the venerable Vito, but his contention that patterns are never
discussed on the TG board or the TG ROTW is not accurate.
I will give you a perfect example why our theories are so different.In his analysis of Kobe on saturday he says horses that come back off a layoff and run a new top are a bet against.When a 4 year old comes back and runs a pair up or a number 1/4 to 1-1/4 points better than his top he is as live as anything you would want to play.You want 4-6 weeks coming in and a decent 3 yr old line.He said the horse reacted to every new top he ran ,not on my numbers.Forget the numbers we don\'t even agree on what a good line is.
Richiebee,
I didn\'t pay much attention to the condition move discussion on the board. We\'ll just say I tend to sit down at machines that look to be setting on a new top.
Vito:
It is all good. Not only might a person using Ragozin view a horse\'s chances
differently than a person using TG, I am sure that there are many instances
where two people looking at Rag or TG figures might reach a different
conclusion; the data is always subject to interpretation, and the result is
more value than if everyone\'s interpretation of the data was uniform.
With regards to Kobe, I did not like the uncertainty attached to his shipping
to a track he had never run at and taking a short price; I ended up taking
another short priced horse who had already run a good race at Kee. I know
your response is that you are focused on the number, on the patterns, and
disregard any other ancillary considerations. You are not the only one on
either side of the aisle who takes this approach.
As to Unrivaled, there has to be some backstory as to why Winstar offered a
runner by their hot young sire for 30K; I think it is almost inevitable that
we will read next that trainer Marya Montoya (daughter of the late
Keystone/Philly Park training legend \"Goose\" Heimer) will be replaced.
Might I suggest \"Move Up\" Michelle Nevin?
Agreed the Kobe price was no bargain.As far as Nevin goes now you are talking.
I am guessing 1.5 for Dortmund, and a 0.5 for Carpe Diem. The Wood is very tough to figure.
In the Wood either the first two ran Very fast and the others ran normal, or the first two ran average and the rest bounced.
From what I\'ve seen none of these horses is as good as Mubtaahij he won for fun in the UAE Derby, not just because I have a nice bet on him at 90-1 in the future book I love the breeding for distance and the fact he likes dirt, the two preps at 1 3/16 miles on the new (slow) surface at Meydon with a great trainer deKock at the controls.
Almost two seconds quicker than the Gazelle winner, who romped despite spotting her foes tons of weight.
They went fast.
He did win for fun, and wish I had that future bet, but he won\'t be sprinting home off a 26 second opening quarter in the Derby if he wants the roses. He won\'t have that cherry stalking position at Churchill at the UAE pace.
But he will have first time Lasix, won\'t he?
C/B 2-3 points or none or more.