Assuming no surprises next week with American Pharaoh as impressive as Dortmund to go with no surprises this week and the 2015 Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs (YUMS) has this vertical player some what depressed.
I glanced back at the 2000 running this classic when Fusaichi Pegasus proved the betting public astute by winning @ 2.30/1. Aptitude (a nice colt) ran second @ just about 12/1. Impeachment (part of a three horse entry which also included Trippi and Commendable) ran 3rd @ 6/1. That $2.00 trifecta paid $435 with a trifecta pool of 13 million.
Back in those ancient times there were only fourteen betting interests, including a second entry (this one from Godolphin) and a three horse field group. Neither took too much money and each went off at about 20/1 and out of the super.
There were some colts that year that are getting more ink today than they did then e.g., More Than Ready (4th), War Chant (9th), Exchange Rate, High Yield, Graeme Hall, Hal\'s Hope, Captain Steve (all up the track that day).
So I\'m thinking dreaming, as long as BB doesn\'t put two in the trifecta or win a similar price may be possible. Several fast horses are going to be 10-15/1. By the way the $2.00 exacta in 2000 was $66. Certainly these are meager prices compared to what we\'ve become accustomed to in recent history and beating Baffert will perpetuate that from which dreams are made.
If by some fluke of fate BB couples two or all three of his we may have a negative show pool which couldn\'t happen to a greater organization than CDI.
This is of course pure conjecture and subjective with a month of happenstance still to persevere. That\'s a lot of time to convince ourselves that the California Horses are not really that fast (despite Lord Nelson\'s quirky performance) and Baffert won\'t win. Starting Monday after an Easter Sunday with family, food and loved ones!
Tavasco Wrote:
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> This is of course pure conjecture and subjective
> with a month of happenstance still to persevere
> .... starting Monday after an Easter
> Sunday with family, food and loved ones!
Happy Easter Tavasco.
Many of us can appreciate the fine distinction between \"family\" and \"loved
ones.\"
That famous old handicapper, Plato, once called for the partial abolition of
the family unit. A distinguished professor of mine (I won\'t drop a name) once
stated that he agreed with Plato on this score, that the family was responsible
for the perpetuation of stupid ideas and vile prejudices, and that for this
reason all children are obligated to break away from the family unit as soon as
practical.
Thankfully for pagan T-generates everywhere, GP and SA will be open for worship
today.
I hope this wasn\'t meant to be the beginning of another California figures debate. Lord Nelson and Kobe\'s Back performances yesterday seem to add yet more evidence that the figures are plenty accurate.
I use the other numbers and I bet both of them.
You should email Barry Irwin. Oh wait, he compared both sets of figures for a long time before coming to a conclusion.
I don\'t have this answer, you do .I dare you to tell the truth.How many left them,how many left you.
Are you serious? If it\'s not at least 10-1 my way I\'m not sitting here right now.
well one of the horses used in team valors reasons for leaving, ran awful yesterday with numbers as good as 2nd and 3rd place horses in the blue grass. Its one horse, i get it, and it can easily be explained as a bounce/didnt like track as opposed to a bad number. Time will tell I guess.
Correct on all counts.
Barry\'s decision was based on a lot more than two horses, as he said they were \"the last straw\". Another one they mentioned was Speechify, who Jake gave a 10 first out when we gave it 1 3/4.
It\'s also worth mentioning that another horse looked different in the BG, per Vito\'s pre-race post on the Jake board. The winner.
wow... a 10 vs a 1 3/4? Thats crazy. Well the BG was the free race over there. Other than the winner, nothing looked fast enough going in to compete in the derby.
Vito,
Loyal Rags user and undoubtedly a nice guy.Unless you\'ve studied and formulated conversions(Beyer to TG to Rags to TF-US) you would be unaware that far too many Rag figs, compared to the other fig makers cited,are NOT reflective of performance. Most importantly, they often do not \"stand up\" vs the cited fig makers.
Assuming you are happy with Rags, then stay but I have empirical data amassed over years which show that the most accurate and consistent SPEED figures, which hold up, is Beyer by a pole.TG by a pole as PERFORMANCE figs.
Good luck
Mike
On average our figures run about 4 points faster (Miff?), but since Ragozin left-- and to some extent even before-- everything they do is all over the place, depending on circuit, distance etc.
Look if you are going to quote me be factual.The winner had a very good 2 year old number and his 3yr old number was fast (an 8)you probably had him at 2.I don\'t play 2/5 shots.Let them beat me and he did.The horse I played went off at 15-1 and ran poorly.It happens.
How can you talk about beyer numbers when he doesn\'t do ground.?One more thing I play patterns,condition lines,etc.Not once have I ever heard anyone here talk about a condition line.Look you seem like a nice guy I am judt a man with an opinion.I will have a derby pick and it won\'t be any of BBT\'S horses and will be 15-1.As far as these numbers go 10 races 6 pair ups,not for me.
Sorry my horse went off 10-1 and beat unrivaled(who didn\'t belong in the race on Ragozin numbers) by 5 lengths)
They had him not getting back to his 2yo top, which is presumably why you said you didn\'t like his pattern. It was a zero. He laid over the field and his pattern was just fine-- which doesn\'t mean anybody here takes odds-on. But we weren\'t trying to beat him.
We talk about patterns all the time, we just doesn\'t use the BS jargon the Lens use to make what they do sound important. Please give me the definition of \"condition move\".
Vito, you\'re a nice guy and a good handicapper. I have a question for you. Do you believe a track variant, or the speed of the racetrack, can change during a racing card?
For example, if the wind suddenly picks up or dies down in advance of changing weather, can that change the variant from what was happening earlier in the card?
Or if there are 10 races carded, and it\'s partly cloudy with no rain during races 1-4, but then it starts to rain in race 5 and continues to rain harder and harder for the remainder of the card, do races 1-4 and 5-10 have the same track variant?
Hi Vito,
Could you briefly explain what you mean by a \"conditioning line\"? THX.
bbb
No longer a credible constant in converting Rags to TG
I will give you 2 I caught yesterday and please I bet losers also.Princess violet in the 6th at Keeneland was an example.A real tough race and Violet had an 8 and a 1/4 lats year and this year 7 and 3/4 which is a 1/2 point move first out,very strong in my world.We call it a condition line or move.Kobe ran 4 and a 1/2 last year and first out at 4yrs old matched it ,again very strong.Now rest is important and both were fine in that dept.Age is a factor 3,4,5 yr olds are horses that can make these moves.I gave you a compact explanation.
What does that mean?
I will answer you the best way I can.I happen to be very good with numbers in day to day life.I understand what you are saying and I let Them do the numbers.My belief is that if I am going to start asking why this, and why that, I am going to confuse myself.Ilook at their numbers and look for patterns that I like and make a play.I know you guys are big on changing track speeds and all that.I let them look at it and I take it from there.
So your answer is \"I don\'t know and I don\'t care.\"
Right?
Vito,
It means that the TG to Rags conversion was add 2.5 points,that graduated to add 3 points then to add 3.50 points then add 4 points.Finally no constant number can be added to a TG figure to come to the Rags fig at least 70% of the time which makes the conversion with any constant useless.
Why do you suppose only Rags has the no constant conversion add? Figures amongst the other converted figure makers have a solid constant.
Re Beyer.Since you may not have studied fig makers and how they arrive at a number. In brief, no fig maker makes a better variant for the day than Beyer(several make them well also) The days variant, without question, is the single most important factor in making figures on a normal day with sufficient other data points.
Re Ground Loss.All ground loss is NOT equal(it is only in distance) and ground loss often awards horses lofty figures.A horse travelling the turn wide in 13 seconds gets the same ground loss adjustment as a horse travelling that same turn in 12 seconds.... pure nonsense.All things slower in a race are never equal to all things faster in the same race.There are too many instances where ground loss is overweight(faster)in Rags figs and horses that wire are underweight(slower)
Sorry to go on, you asked.
Mike
I play their numbers period.
Anyone can come up with an example afterward-- see \"Dosage\". I asked you for a definition.
I cannot tell you how many horses i have played and won with against horses with big time beyers.I play patterns not 100 beyer numbers because they have no meaning to me.I f a horse runs a 95,97.98 Beyer what is he running next?I don\'t know, but when I see 11,10, on the sheets I have an idea what he is going to run.
It is when a horse runs a number, a small improvement that leads you to believe a forward move is coming,but there are many things involved, age , timing, etc..By the way I am not a red boarder.
Got it. You like to see swings up and down in numbers so you can play patterns, and you don\'t question the methodology behind those numbers and patterns.
There\'s also got to be an assumption in here that this is true only so long as you keep winding up betting on winners, no?
Look this is a very tough game on any level.I believe their product gives me the best chance to win.Win every time ,let\'s be serious.Yesterday you were talking on this board about a turf horse owned by Mr COVELLO .On the sheets that I use he was a toss,and he was 2 for 2 in this country.By the way I have nothing against Mr Covello,nice guy.
Since it\'s not every horse that goes forward a little, a \"condition move\" is then in the eye of the beholder. It\'s just a way of saying someone is reading a horse to go forward, so yes, all horseplayers (not just sheet players) do it all the time.
By the way, to nip in the bud some nonsense you posted on the other board, no, we never said Unrivaled was a Derby prospect. He went into the BG 5 points slower than the winner, and 5-7 slower than many Derby contenders.
You do understand there\'s no arguing with you, right? Your position is that you don\'t know anything about figures, but have an opinion about which are better or worse, without even doing a serious comparison, like Irwin did.
But you\'re not redboarder...
It is not in the eye of the beholder but in the numbers.Your the guy who doesn\'t understand and you make numbers.it is a PATTERN another word I never heard here.
If I knew how to make figures or understood what they do would I be buying their numbers?I buy them because I don;t know how they do it.Is that so complicated?
Vito,
You are missing a serious point. You are taking the Rag figs as gospel and pattern reading accordingly.Have you ever considered figs, Rags or anybodys, are not gospel, often enough far from it. How do you overcome that being a one dimensional pattern reader? PP\'s, works,biases, visuals etc etc are irrelevant?
Mike
No, it\'s not complicated at all. It means you have no basis for an opinion.
I am not a vet,When A horse comes on the track unless he is sweating badly I assume he is ok.Workouts mean nothing to me.I care that my horse worked not how fast he worked.BBT works his horses in 57, Jerkens worked his horses in 114.I t means nothing to me.I don\'t want to start looking at too many things because then it becomes well I like the pattern but.With all the drug stuff,you have enough to look at just with trainers alone.I try to stay consistent.Yesterday I really liked Bolo a lot but Smith decided to be 3 wide the whole way,but the bolo line I will play every time.
Oh I see you have to make numbers and understand the concept of numbers to have an opinion.Let me ask ,does this work for everything in life?Do you have to know how to make a car to buy one?Do you have to know how to make pasta before you can go to an Italian restaurant and tell the guy you don\'t like it.?You know you are really a funny guy.
No. You have to have tried the pasta at other places to say it\'s the best, though.
Vito,
In that context, can a non Italian be a funny guy?
Mike
Sure.
Well I have tried the pasta(their product)and I like it better.Look I have looked at your numbers and i had a very difficult time with them.Let\'s just say we agree to disagree.Have a nice Easter or Passover.
Not sure Joe Pesce would agree.
Pesci.
It seems to me that everyone here is missing the overall point. All sheets players read and interpret numbers in one way or another, just listen to any of JB\'s seminars.The only real issue is who has the most accurate numbers to work with. Vito has his opinion, TG users have theirs..
True Boston, however tracking the performance of the figures produced is not that difficult. Barry Irwin did it and switched to TG from Rags.
And I want to thank Vito for helping publicize that...
Vito is a true believer, based on faith, not knowledge, as he himself admits. As I\'ve said here before, when things happen that true believers see as threatening to their their deity-- like the Irwin thing-- he and others get agitated, and post on their board and/or show up here. It\'s not a whole lot different than the way certain religious people react to people questioning or insulting their deity or faith, and that\'s not just confined to one specific faith.
well, there is no redboarding with unrivaled. Mr. Irwin clearly pointed out the discrepancy in numbers. Tg had him fast, sheets had him slow. Yesterday he was slow. Unless horses start talking, we dont know why. Who was right? Who knows. I dont play everyday, and surely wont follow the horses that came out of that parx race, but being this is such a subjective game, I think anyone claiming superiority is easily humbled by a race or series of races. The bottom line is making money. Im sure if vito was getting beat up, he may have another opinion, but sounds likes hes staying afloat. I still contend there are times where the sheets get races wrong, and there are times tg get races wrong. No one is perfect.
I think it is great to get Vito posting here again. Rather than scare him away with a fight over metaphysics, why don\'t we welcome him and encourage him to discuss horses and races and handicapping. He was a very good addition over here when he was handicapping some of the triple crown races and he left. He is back now, let\'s not scare him away, but encourage him to stay. I for one look forward to his assessment of the Derby.
We had him faster, not fast. At least in that field.
\'\'Remember the cover-up is worse than the crime\'\'You said that you are not saying Unrivaled(the second coming of Seattle Slew) was not a derby contender.By the way he was a complete toss on the \'\'off the rail product\'\'.You then in your TG analysis called him a \'\'live longshot\'\'with the 1/2 winner and gorgeous bird who also finished up the track.Now if he is a contender in your view in the blue grass doesn\'t that make him a possible derby horse.? So which is it?They should ship in back to PARX and run him in a cheap allowance race.
Be serious, Vito. Live longshot in a weak Derby prep doesn\'t makes him a Derby contender. He\'s 5-7 points slower than a large group of actual Derby contenders, which I\'m pretty sure I said already. The Blue Grass winner is one of them-- w had him 5 points faster going in.
They tell me Unrivaled is running in a stake next time out, not an allowance. I\'m going to go out on a limb and predict that a lot of horses that ran inside at Kee Friday and Sat will improve next time out. He will be one of them.
Nice board you guys have over there, by the way. A lot of people seem to think it\'s okay to call people names. You don\'t see a lot of that over here-- I go after them and their product on the merits, but I don\'t do that.
I called you a name?If they run him in a stake ,it should be in Finger Lakes.
You don\'t read very carefully.
NO,you don\'t state your case properly,if anything, you made an ambiguous statement,not really directly at anyone.I assumed because of our disagreements you meant me.
TGJB Wrote:
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> You don\'t read very carefully.
\"A lot of people seem to think it\'s okay to call people names.\"
Which I gather would mean, several people on the other board call people names.
Right. And a logical approach, instead of making assumptions, might be for Vito to look on their board to see what I might be talking about. See that? I used logical approach and Vito in the same sentence.
So now you are putting me in charge of what people say.?Look I handle myself a certain way,so you should take that up with whoever you like, not me.
Yes I am illogical because I dare use a better product then this pair up mambo you sell.
Vito,
I\'ll bite since I know both products for 30 years. Better how?
Mike
vp612 Wrote:
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> Yes I am illogical because I dare use a better
> product then this pair up mambo you sell.
Anything like this?
https://youtu.be/N_T35xt9iuM?t=33s
It is amazing how much noise a couple of voices can make.
I\'m reminded of a day back in 2004 or 2005 in the VIP room @ Tampa Downs. VIP was a stretch, but one did get to rub elbows with the likes of George Steinbrenner (I thought he\'d be taller) & Satish Sanaan and his private teller.
I was there with my brother from Sonoma who could care less about horse racing being an artist and NorCal foodie. Suddenly the room was interrupted by two owners arguing over who knows what.
Picture snowbirds, lots of gold jewelery, sunglasses and rolled up programs. They were toe to toe and their faces getting all the more purple as they ran out of breath from shouting at each other. The whole room was somewhat alarmed and staring.
My wonderfully creative brother stood walked up to the duo shoehorned his nose into the fracas and SHOUTED AT THE TOP OF HIS VOICE IS THIS A CONTEST TO SEE WHO CAN MAKE THE MOST NOISE? I\"M PRETTY LOUD. CAN I PLAY TOO?
Well the two arguing sort wandered off in different directions looking a little dazed and confused but with receding blood pressure. My little brother has amazed me on many occasions.
True Story!
OK,I play patterns because horses don\'t go up or down in a straight line.I have looked at your guys sheets and the consistent pair ups make it very difficult for me to find any pattern.I believe horses if healthy improve from 2to 3 ,3to 4 and 4-5(years of age).On RAGOZIN I can see it ,small moves which are very strong to me.With this guy I just don;t see it.Look there are all kinds of patterns that I play.Let;s take Bolo\'s pattern he ran 5\'\' late 2 yr old.He comes back first out 3yr old 4\'\' a one point move which is very strong.The winners pattern was also strong but he was 1/2.Bolo was 5-1 and I will take the odds every time.Of course Smith tried to win from the parking lot,but that is part of the deal.I have never heard anyone say here \'\'Oh so and so just came back first out 3 or 4 years old and made a small move ,never.
Vito,
Guess your issue is the interpretation of pattern reads, or subtle move ups et al vs some of the interpretations here.If you put 10 sheet readers in a room, you could get 5-7 different interpretations looking at the same race.So lack of, or less pairs makes Rags better?
By the way, your comments re TG pairs are pretty much with established turf horses with many races vs lightly raced dirt horses cycling in and out of form.TG does have many pairs but when you look and convert from other figure makers, they are not off the wall.Admit that is not the case with Rags which tend to be far more spread out,so to speak. Strange with the basic methodology of both being very similar.
Next time you see an older turf race on Rags take a look and tell me how many horses run close to a certain figure several times in a row, you might be a little surprised. The nature of turf racing, very slow early, very fast late lends itself to horses running pretty tight figs assuming they fire.Tight range turf figs is something seen on many credible fig makers, including Rags.
Mike
Mike-- The things we both try to measure are the same. The way we do it-- methodology-- is not at all (see Changing Track Speeds in our Archives, which I know you have).
No argument with turf horses.They tend to stay in a very tight range and sometimes run the same number or close to it 4 or 5 times in row.Because of that the pattern reads are less frequent, with odds plays being the way to go.
JB,
Aware but the differences are so profound and so often now that it has to be more than just the track changing speed.Have told you when we last spoke what I believe is the root cause, would rather not go into it here.
Mike
I get what vito is saying..having used sheets way more than tg....I think that as vito says when a horse goes 7 6 on sheets, a lightly raced horse that is, u can play for a 5 or a 4 if youre getting great odds especially if other horses in race are off jumps, etc....whereas with tg, if a horse is running the same 7 6, and just looking at the previous rotws, rarely will analysis point to that horse with much of a chance to jump a few points. So when I do use tg, I think I tend to stick more towards the numbers then the patterns I would normally look for with the sheets...if that makes any sense at all.
I was thinking just the opposite. Seems like the analysis often contains a \"being lightly raced, Stewball could always move forward\" - stated as a caveat. Which I take as worth a play at the right (generous) odds.
Or slow early, fast late race shapes tend to compress figures. Now take that and throw it in a dogmatic, pattern reading machine. See if it burns...