In order of importance which factors determine which horse you think will run best. Feel free to add.
Speed figures/current form
Pace
Trainer
Class drop or hike
Time off
Depends on the race of course and one must consider weight and projected ground loss to arrive at a speed figure but very importantly the odds and the PED\'s. If Australian Racing hadn\'t disappeared from Twinspires, I would not be rambling on - too much energy and no races to play.
For example the Santa Anita Derby. Is there going to be an overlay?
1. If Dortmund maintains his condition many will consider him unbeatable consequently even at 3/5 the unbeatable opinion can be bet.
2. Considering One Lucky Dane, Bad Read Sanchez, Dortmund and Bolo want to control the race from the front. Pace meltdown becomes a possibility and one in the race (Prospect Park) has had success coming from off the pace, and I need the CD points to save my futures bet.
3. Hollendorfer\'s integrity is sound. Sise & Gaines have too few jump ups (to my knowledge) to be suspicious, leaving Baffert & O\'Neil and their rivalry. O\'Neil get\'s 30/1, ability=?, & condition looks awesome (via w/o\'s) for at least the first six furlongs. He also get points for the horses name!
My overlay guess - Cross the line to run 3rd or 4th behind the obvious contenders and a saver on O\'Neil to win. I\'ll Have Another (hic)!
\"Hollendorfer\'s integrity is sound.\"
Leaving drugs aside (what a depressing way to begin a sentence), I think the best way to learn who moves horses up is to forget about nicknames and what we think we know about hearts and professionalism and all the rest. Simply look at the TG Sheets--a lot of them--and see who moves horses up. My experience is that very few people do this systematically. It\'s kind of boring.