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General Category => Ask the Experts => Topic started by: Tavasco on March 07, 2015, 01:38:40 AM

Title: What a difference a year makes
Post by: Tavasco on March 07, 2015, 01:38:40 AM
March 8, 2014 The San Felipe Stakes

Joel Rosario was in town to ride for the red hot John Sadler aboard Kristo.

Mike Smith was up for Bob Baffert aboard the second choice and Sham winning Midnight Hawk.  BB & others were insisting Midnite Lute\'s progeny could route! BB scratched Bayern for reasons not known to me.

The favorite was a lowly Cal Bred with a fanatic following named California Chrome.

Some insist you can\'t compare times but hey CC went :23.09 :45.55 1:09.45 1:33.94 1:40.59 none could keep pace or make up ground CC won by 7+ lengths and isn\'t here this weekend cause he went to Dubai.

Midnight Hawk is back. He\'s in the 9th with his buddy Chitu whom it seems can beat about anyone except Shared Belief(what does Bob have against SB? that he mugs em when given the chance).

In 2013 Hear The Ghost won, touted by TG & played by me but could not stand the rigors of racing, maybe he will sire? Goldencents made the pace (6F similar to CC) before giving way to the Factor and the eventual winner two seconds slower than CC.

Creative Cause & Bodiemeister ran one two the preceding year with an ordinary pace and final time.

In 2011 Runflatout as the favorite, did, going :21.75 :44.58 his rider J. Rosario took his tack and left town not long after.

This is a meaningful prep. I will be the first to voice Dortmund Doubt and predict Lord Nelson wins by rolling late into too quick of a  pace.

After dissin Midnight Hawk for a year his price could be irresistible today. Not!
Title: Re: What a difference a year makes
Post by: richiebee on March 07, 2015, 04:37:49 AM
Tavasco Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Midnight Hawk is back. He\'s in the 9th with his
> buddy Chitu whom it seems can beat about anyone
> except Shared Belief(what does Bob have against
> SB? that he mugs em when given the chance).
>
> After dissin Midnight Hawk for a year his price
> could be irresistible today. Not!

I would love Chitu today if it were not for his rail post. He paired up in his
last two well spaced tries at the distance, and might enjoy a pace advantage
in a race where the two other speeds have no stakes experience.

When the Palos Verdes was the ROTW, it was predicted that Conquest Two Step was
a big bounce candidate off a huge forward move and a gut wrenching loss to
Shared Belief in the Malibu; instead CTS moved forward again in the PV,
benefitting from a pace meltdown and putting up a negative TG #. CTS now spots
most of his competitors 5 pounds. As Frank D\'s favorite trainer Turo
Escalante might say, \"NOW you bounce.\"

Even with Dortmund and Shared Belief looming as short priced propositions, the
multiple race wagers (P4,P6) are made interesting by the two turf stakes: The
China Doll for 3YO fillies and the Kilroe Mile, both of which, to me, look wide
open.

Out of an abundance of concern for my sanity and bankroll, I will not be
playing NYRA this weekend but will look in on Jimmy C\'s crack 3YO sprinter
Majestic Affair in the Jimmy Winkfield stake. (If you are looking for a good
horse racing read, check out \"Wink\", the story of African- American jockey
Jimmy Winkfield, written by the late Ed Hotaling.)
Title: Re: What a difference a year makes
Post by: Tavasco on March 07, 2015, 03:45:08 PM
While the raw time seems unimpressive at first glance. You will not hear me doubting Dortmund again. Prospect Bay finished nice.

Maybe Baffert can get his filly back together in the next and I\'ll try to quash my disappointment with oh Maybellene don\'t you be cruel.

Looks like two headed to Kentucky.