Best of luck, Jim.
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/90396/far-from-over-interest-sold-wood-next
Some people take Derby futures a bit more seriously than others.
lol
Thanks guys.
I\'m very excited.
I think he\'s the one this year and so I put my money where my mouth is.
Very few of these are bred to get the 1 1/4 and he is and that plus the brillance he showed in the withers has me really excited about this horse.
Thanks again
Out of curiosity-- of the recent Derby winners, which ones would you say have \"1 1/4 pedigrees\"? I went back as far as Smarty, to me it looks like about half of them.
I won\'t invoke the \"C\" word from last year, this is a better horse. But he\'s also running against much better horses.
I would say since 2005 (so just picking the last 10 years), you have had 3 winners (including Big Brown) where the pedigree wasn\'t obvious for the distance but the pedigrees were rock solid for the other 7. So 70% of the time in the last 10 years, pedigree has mattered.
Orb
Animal Kingdom
Super Saver
Mine that Bird
Street Sense
Barbaro
Giacomo
They were all locks to get the distance.
In the case of Mine that Bird and Giacomo, their ability to get the distance was the only thing they had going for them going into the race.
Pedigree isn\'t the only thing that matters but it\'s important
Don\'t agree about Giacamo (Great Above? Ta Wee? Tyrant?), and if you go back one more year you get Smarty, who I would put in the no camp (Smile mare). If so you get to 6/5, which is what I had.
Giamcomo was by Holy Bull out of a Stop the Music mare so he had two 1 1/4 quarter horses in his immediate pedigree, doesn\'t get any more clear than that.
it\'s 7/10.
I can go back and look at the previous 10 when I get a chance but it\'s very clearly 7 out of the last 10.
obviously there have been a ton of horses that have had the pedigree to get the distance that haven\'t won as well so we need more than the pedigree but at least it\'s a start!
Holy Bull gets to be a 1 1/4 horse because he himself did it, despite having a sprint pedigree? Then by definition every Derby winner is one.
The bottom side of Holy Bull\'s pedigree was loaded with stamina influences (Al Hattab, Grey Dawn, I Will) and the bottom side of Giacomo\'s pedigree had plenty of stamina, especially up close as I mentioned before.
we can agree to disagree, it\'s all good
As a rule of thumb I never bet a Pletcher horse to win the Derby..
With that being said,I wish you the best of luck.
Jim
Skipping Gotham and going straight to the Wood. Positive or negative in your opinion?
Skipping the Gotham was really the original plan. Horse breezed so well first back after the race that it became a consideration but going right to the Wood was the plan all along.
Horse responded great to the 7 weeks between first and second starts and feeling is the same will do him well between Withers and the Wood and that would leave him very fresh for the big race if things go well.
He got a lot of racing education in his first two starts between the dog fight in the first race and the obvious education in the second race.
It\'s always a judgement call and can be argued both ways but I believe this is definitely the right move.
I appreciate that
As we discuss on this board every year, Todd\'s horses run the same percentages of TG tops and pairs as everyone else for the Derby. He just has rarely had the best horse heading into the race and the one time be did, he won the race.
Solid turf pedigree on the dam side will often overcome any distance limitations that may have existed on the sire side.
I agree that Smarty Jones was a head scratcher.
Good Luck,
Joe B
Best of luck Jim. This horse is certainly a contender, there are a couple of others in his league but not sure I would want to trade places with anyone. Should be an exciting couple of months.
The stamina influences are on the dam side of Holy Bull through Mahmoud and Herbager.
Good luck Jim. This will keep you from being tempted to stretch the little fella
out.
Speaking of the little fella, seems like he scared away the competition in the
Winkfield, which for 2 straight days did not fill. Looking forward to seeing his
next start; he appears to be a very honest horse.
Thanks Richie.
I think you are right about the little fella.
They are telling us race should go for Sunday so hopefully we get to see him run then!!
Thanks again.
Let\'s just forget the Derby for a second. Mr Covello, if you can get this horse to win a couple more graded stakes, or another Grade 1, you will own one of the top stallion PROSPECTS on the racetrack.
That female family is a masterpiece. Tracing back to Courtly Dee, who produced Arkansas Derby winning filly Althea, and also Aquilegia, Amizette and Twining.
The 3rd dam Aishah won the Rare Perfume and produced stakes winners Atelier and Arabis.
Granddam Aldiza was a Grade 1 winner and produced stakes winner Altesse.
And of course your new acquisition is a 1/2 brother to Michael Matz\' stakes placed filly And Why Not.
I would suggest you look into purchasing some broodmares this November at Keeneland. This is the type of bloodline you will want to consider retaining some shares in when his racing career is over.
thanks alot
the ultimate stallion potential was the big play here, Derby or no Derby.
He\'s actually inbred to Courtly Dee which is even cooler.
I don\'t breed my own horses but I might have to make an excpetion with this one if we were to get lucky down the line.
thanks so much again
You really think Super Saver was the best horse? If lookin at lucky did not have the 1 hole he wins..
The race dynamics add to the mystic of this race. Last horse to win from 1 post I guess was Ferdinand in a 16 horse field? A horse with proven tactical speed seems to be the best attribute to have, post position being a help with that attribute. And of course the pedigree stamina has to be there. there are so many factors going into the race that I try to even consider the post position load to get a edge on the other handicappers. And with 20 horses in the field a trip is a must to get the win but the the tactical speed needs to be there to help the horse to get the trip. I can\'t believe the derby is 2 months from now and this stuff is starting already.
As to possible distance capability of a horse, there is now a genetic test available. How accurate/predictive the test is not yet fully understood.
What is the genetic test for? I doubt highly that there is a gene for distance (and especially not one that differentiates a nine from 10 furlong horse). What then, lung size? Heart size?
Color me skeptical.
AJ,
Back 10 years ago Sheik Mo had a team in London trying to scope out the next Secretariat with all sorts of technology.....still hasn\'t happened.
Mike
Just read an article in the Wapo where Jerry Crawford sort of implies he\'s doing some sort of thing similar to this maybe?
\"Crawford says, they use a true "moneyball" approach to get bang for their buck. He has an algorithm, which he shares only with his son, that takes into account a young horse's DNA, X-rays of its joints, a monitoring of its heart, a scoping of its throat and a series of expert opinions on its physique.\"
Interesting read at any rate.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/style/hillary-clintons-iowa-horse-whisperer-jerry-crawford-aims-for-caucus-kentucky-derby/2015/03/02/9c93b638-be23-11e4-bdfa-b8e8f594e6ee_story.html
Good luck, Jim! Any horse that has Alydar on both sides is an automatic favorite of mine.