Nice race.
Morning line of 5/2 on Bourbon Courage not that attractive for me. Especially starting from the #1 gate position. Hard to imagine him not losing some ground or getting stopped inside. The distance seems right but the track figures to be odd?? maybe frozen ??
Not sure who will make the pace (Zee Bros I guess), but the field is full of runners that run wide and late. Expecting a wild charge to the line trying to catch someone but who? Is Hollendorfer going national? His horse Outside Nashville sure ran fast in Nov. he\'s my pick at m/l 12/1. Exacta Box with Bourbon Courage worth a shot.
Disappointed in the OP weather cancellation but not fit for man nor beast! Surprised Laurel is going.
Tavasco Wrote:
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> Is Hollendorfer going national?
Hollendorfer has been a \"national\" brand since at least the late 1980s.
In 1991, Hollendorfer trained the 3YO filly Lite Light, owned by MC Hammer, to
wins in the Fantasy Stakes, the Kentucky Oaks and the Coaching Club America
Oaks(C. Nakatani up). In the CCA Oaks that year, Lite Light defeated arch rival
Meadow Star. Hammer showed up in the winners circle to accept the trophy from
Ogden Phipps; Hammer, as I recall, was wearing a tux with no shirt.
There are not many trainers out there who are training bottom claimers and
graded stakes horses at the same time with the level of success which
Hollendorfer enjoys.
Once again my expectation for the race was a disconnect. But there is still some hope. Hollendorfer\'s reputation hooked more than just me. His 12/1 morning line price was beaten down to 7/1 at post time on what was one of the slowest horses in the race (by the TG #\'s).
The two favorites Bourbon Courage & Zee Bros sucked up enough $$ to make the both about 5/2. While they have celebrity I just felt like one wouldn\'t get there and one wouldn\'t stay there. I selected with some part of me other than my objective eye. The third choice Big Business another well known money burner (in the win position) also exerted much trainer $ magnetism. Hollendorfer ending up as 4th choice?
While several of the aforementioned celebrities could have won I suggest they were all underlays from a sheets perspective. In my imitation of a TG analysis PRAETEREO almost certain to bounce, but at 20/1 as the fastest horse is worthy of a stab. Javerre runs best off a rest and @ 50/1 could be included in the verticals yet may not have rested long enough. Cutty Sark and Souper Knight have absolutely no, nada, zero chance to compete in this one. They always run 2\'s they are stuck on 2\'s and that just isn\'t good enough vs stakes horses like these.
That leaves: Misconnect as one who has a fair price, good trainer category route to (semi) sprint. An improving line with a question of whether he can resume improving after the last race setback. Smash and Grab another whose 20/1 price is right but could react from last race top. West Hills Giant, consistent, slower than top ones, a better chance back with state breds than here.
Oh Yeh, Perilous Indian lets just say shipping is not a good trainer category for this one. The only one slower than my pick.
Jerry - You are a master of understatement - interesting race - Yes.
Congratulations to those who landed on the winner he wasn\'t unreasonable. For those with the exacta and/or trifecta I\'m not sure what think but envious of the payoff.
For those, like myself, who burned money in foolish bets by not buying the sheets, dumb, dumb, dumb. Using the headlines, trainer notoriety and delirious memories of almosts from a big day at the breeder\'s cup was not a winning strategy.
ritchiebee Hammer Time - I\'m going to go hit myself with one a couple of times. Recuperate prior to the Southwest I hope.