morning line is out.
DRF Pool 2 (http://www.drf.com/news/field-even-money-derby-futures-pool-2)
Surprised to see Texas Red at 15-1, compared to the odds of Carpe Diem and Upstart.
We\'ll put up a file on Friday afternoon. If you have suggestions for others, now is the time to let us know.
Texas Red doesn\'t look like anything special on the TGs at this point vs a bunch of others but if I had to pick one right now, it would be him.
So many things will change between now and even a month from now but, slightly slower TGs notwithstanding, he\'s the top choice in my mind.
Given that this is likely a year where the Derby fav will be no lower than 5 or 6 to 1 given what at this point looks like a broad crop, I don\'t know about taking anything less than 20-1 in this pool though.
That said, if over the next few months American Pharaoh and his suspensory go the way of Calculator and Leave the Light on, 15-1 will look great on Texas Red.
best time of the year upcoming
Jim,
Re American Pharoah,its amazing how a relatively minor foot bruise went to a possibly disasterous suspensory injury.Forever and a day, connections have lied about the extent of injuries, especially Derby prospects...very tough on players.
...nice wins recently!
Mike
Mike,
couldn\'t agree more.
I am pretty sure that the news about the supensory wasn\'t supposed to come out yesterday, I have a sense that was a misstep
thanks so much for the comments on the wins, I am still replaying each of those races in my head about 10x each day!
thanks again
I\'m inclined to stay away from this pool altogether. Horses like Ocean Knight and Ocho Ocho Ocho are tempting, but they will get bet down too much here. Since they are both expected to run next in March, their odds should be better in Pool 3 (after everyone is in a tizzy over the FOY, Risen Star, and Lewis runners).
I think Prospect Park and Bolo are rather interesting.
Wrongly,
After first considering a move to dirt for Bolo in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes this Saturday, Carla Gaines said Bolo was "unlikely to run," with the trainer pondering whether she should leave well enough alone and keep him on turf for now.
From the DRF yesterday
flighted iron
Thanks! Had not heard that.
War Dispatch & Mubtaahij
Tiznow R J and Keen Ice
What happened to Blofeld? Not even any works since his last win in November.
See what comes out of the Withers today before committing.
Fail-El-Kabeir odds floating up. Gorgeous Bird? dropping.
Analysis SPOT ON! Nice job.
Regarding Blofeld, I saw this in The Bloodhorse. http://bit.ly/1C8OyVi
I took a nice swing with Mr.Z
44-1
I know he seems like a nutcase, but \"if\" Wayne gets him straightened out, I think he\'ll be okay.
What am I missing?
Halo Fire Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I took a nice swing with Mr.Z
> 44-1
> I know he seems like a nutcase, but \"if\" Wayne
> gets him straightened out, I think he\'ll be okay.
> What am I missing?
I don\'t think anything. He IS a Nutcase.
I can\'t recall a young 3 yr old that has:
1. Kept such good company - 8 stakes, 7 of them graded
2. Had such consistent good form - placed in 5 of the graded races, and
3. Only won his maiden
Another Bourbon Courage in the making.
I didn\'t use Texas Red in my small; very small, future wager but isn\'t it nice that they announced he has a foot abscess following the close of the wager.
Regarding Texas Red, I\'ve read the DRF article and there is still hope, Of course one never knows.
One of the wonderful aspects of this game is the variety of thinking, the diverse rationale. Much of which seems nonsensical and absurd, given our own paradigm. The following tickles me.
First, to date, my approach to these pools has been to pass. I thought. and still do, that I could probably get a good price on a horse that was actually in the race. I had been influenced by watching too many prospects not make it to the dance. But this year I changed my mind. My thought was to pick a few under the radar in the 35/1 range. So I did. Now reflecting on my actions, I realize it is not about making a good bet it is about being a fanatic. I\'m OK with that because the Triple Crown Circus is about being a fan of the sport and enjoying one race for 3-6 mos.
So being a fanatic, I can look at the actions of others as absurd because I have become so narrow minded. For example, I noticed myself laughing silently that the betting public made Dortmund the second choice. I discounted his backers without knowing who they are or why they did. Because I\'m sure that I read that Bob Baffert said American Pharaoh was the best young horse he\'d ever trained. So, at least BB believes Dortmund is not the best horse going in. I hadn\'t considered that Baffert fanatics dutched all his horses! A trainer angle, not without merit. Maybe his backers just consider his to date speed figures or races or? and don\'t know Bob favors another.
To me the irresistible force and the immovable object that I just cannot get past is that come the 1st Saturday In May I just do not see a front running horse winning. Very simple there are too many of them (at this juncture) and they will beat each other. I expect a replay of the Juvenile. Maybe not Texas Red but one with a similar running style.
Of course my speculation is just that of a fanatic and big horse fans are guffawing somewhere saying small horses don\'t have a chance carrying all that weight that far.
So I spread taking a Baffert, Lord Nelson, needing a bigger price than his popular ones offered. Competitive Edge because he\'s unbeaten 37/1 and Frosted 31/1 because he is already fast enough to win..
It caught my eye that Romans entered a euro in the El Camino Real which has a few derby qualifying points? A one on two fast break vs Hollendorfer @ GG. Optimistic!