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General Category => Ask the Experts => Topic started by: ajkreider on January 24, 2015, 05:03:11 PM

Title: Three year olds at GP
Post by: ajkreider on January 24, 2015, 05:03:11 PM
Two notable performances - one very good and one great.  

Upstart is legit.  Track was slow all day (all meet, really), and the time stacks up very well with the one turn mile of the 75k OCs (some expensive horses in there).  Did it from the 8 post with that short run to the first turn.  Dusted a really nice horse in Frosted, and did if off a layoff - not Violette\'s strong suit.   If healthy, he\'s there in May.

But the run of the day was Khozan.  So good in fact I wonder if the timer malfunctioned (wouldn\'t be the first time). 8 tenths faster than Barbados in the Hutcheson, well over a second quicker than the filly race (that included the Ynez winner), and more than 3 seconds faster than the cheap claimers.  

Those other three races fit well together, but you don\'t expext that effort first time out, from a horse giving four pounds to the stakes victors.  Oh yeah, and he did it from the 14 hole, coasting to the wire. Pletcher didn\'t give him much of a look in the paddock - stood over with Porch Pounder.  Only suspicious thing was that the place horse was just three back.

Interested to see what they do with him.  A half to Royal Delta, cost a cool million - expectations must be high, but wow.
Title: Re: Three year olds at GP
Post by: Tavasco on January 24, 2015, 09:14:33 PM
Algorithims, Verrazano, Social Inclusion, Khozan?

Brilliant!



Upstart - Nothing to fault and will forever love him for letting Carpe Diem by in BC Juvenile.

Frosted - Very patient owners may not be KD quality but expect continued improvement somewhere other than South Florida.




Acceptance Favorite toss of tournament players but who expected a Fresno also ran? Seems I recall a NorCal shipper made for a big score during last years NHC.

Alert Bay Five wins in a row.
Title: Re: Three year olds at GP
Post by: miff on January 25, 2015, 06:24:21 AM
Upstarts 105 Beyer very strong but with no other 2 turn dirt route to compare it to. GP surface definitely not playing it\'s usual glib self which is probably by design(maintenance)Too many complaints of horses getting jarred up from hard surface.

Upstart stays up with top 3yr old Derby prospects with a big fig in the TG 0 range.
Title: Re: Three year olds at GP
Post by: Silver Charm on January 25, 2015, 08:13:46 AM
Miff agreed on Upstart. He ran a big race BC Day when 3-4 wide most of the trip from a bad post AND coming off a second straight top effort in his 2YO campaign. Those two 0\'s you mentioned.

There was a 70% chance of rain yesterday here and it was supposed to be from 10AM-2PM. It never happened but no doubt the Track Maintenance Team had done some precautionary preparation. Upstart is LEGIT. I had the 1 but was totally impressed with the winner and the 1 should not be discarded. Only 4 works in 8 weeks and sat 2-3 lengths behind a half in 48+ and 1:12+. Not typical GP fractions but the winner was too much for him....
Title: Re: Three year olds at GP
Post by: Silver Charm on January 25, 2015, 08:24:03 AM
104 Beyer for him. That $1M price tag now looks cheap!!!
Title: Re: Three year olds at GP
Post by: ajkreider on January 25, 2015, 03:46:09 PM
Getting back to his two year old top, after a layoff, says significant forward move next out, no?  

That would seemingly put him in rarified air, for a sophomore.
Title: Re: Three year olds at GP
Post by: Flighted Iron on January 26, 2015, 05:48:51 PM
Tavasco,

  The breeding for the first three are suspect compared to Khozan. That really matters not now. Holding together while playing foundation catch-up is the issue.

flighted
Title: Re: Three year olds at GP
Post by: Tavasco on January 26, 2015, 07:21:18 PM
Flighted Iron Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Tavasco,
>
>   The breeding for the first three are suspect
> compared to Khozan. That really matters not now.
> Holding together while playing foundation catch-up
> is the issue.
>
> flighted

You make a excellent point. I posted before even looking at the breeding. I\'ve just been expecting a new shooter to emerge from GP in January and the month is nearly at an end so I may have over reacted.

Then I looked a little closer. There was a second horse in that MSW race, literally, Wisecracker. Both with the same Sire and one with Delta Princess on the bottom. Khozan may not even be pointed to Kentucky or dirt. Although the pull must be very strong.

Your point about keeping them together (sound) is the key. We have so many special (fast) colts, as of now, no new shooter is needed but welcome. This spring is shaping up to be an exceptional and exciting one. The top tier have not even run as 3 y/o\'s. yet. Wowzer!

Plus - I\'m anticipating an import or two this year.
Title: Re: Three year olds at GP
Post by: Flighted Iron on January 28, 2015, 01:29:06 PM
The top tier have not even run as 3 y/o\'s. yet. Wowzer

Tavasco,

  Had to aquaint myself with this years crop. Normally in the past i\'ve been more engaged. I\'m somewhat intrigued by Bolo. Haven\'t seen his TG #\'s,but seems
to qualify as \" fast enough at two\" albeit grass races. He\'s been lighting it up
in the AM on dirt at SA. Plenty of stamina both sides( especially on top ).

Flighted
Title: Re: Three year olds at GP
Post by: aceriley on January 28, 2015, 10:34:47 PM
Off topic with respect to GP 3 year olds, but curious as to whether TG has any numbers on Michael De Kock\'s potential Derby entry, Mubtaahij. Desert to the Derby possibility? This trainer has conquered several other big money races and this could be his first Derby entrant, to my knowledge; seems bred to run all day and then some.

Ace
Title: Re: Three year olds at GP
Post by: aceriley on January 28, 2015, 10:53:17 PM
I\'m impressed so far:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lt8PLSSLhyE
Title: Re: Three year olds at GP
Post by: aceriley on January 28, 2015, 10:56:18 PM
OK so I\'m impressed:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JOAkQNsY1Rk
Title: Speaking of the legit
Post by: ajkreider on January 29, 2015, 03:19:31 PM
Covello\'s Majestic Affair won with ease again. Congrats to the connections.  Can\'t figure out the pedigree.  Daddy was a sprinter but by Harlan\'s Holiday.  Damsire showed well in the classics.  

Plans to go longer, JC?
Title: Re: Speaking of the legit
Post by: covelj70 on January 29, 2015, 07:25:32 PM
Thanks so much for the message.

It\'s very exciting to have one like this in the stable.

He\'s a tiny little thing so we will keep him sprinting. He\'s not a two turn type

Goal is the Bay Shore on Wood Day at Big A.

He got a 91 Beyer and with the wide trip and the 6 extra pounds he covered, he might have paired his big TG fig from the Winkfield.

Hopefully Mozambique Gold tomorrow at Gulfstream and Testa Rossi on Sat at Tampa can complete the trifecta for the stable this week!

Thanks again.

Jim
Title: Re: Speaking of the legit
Post by: Tavasco on January 30, 2015, 11:54:59 AM
Cha Ching @ GP

Congratulations!

Clement\'s Hard Not To Like @ Tampa should help your price. The Red Head will need to be on her game.  Good Luck Man - Hat Trick Hat Trick.
Title: Re: Speaking of the legit
Post by: covelj70 on January 30, 2015, 12:41:15 PM
thanks alot

win and a claim there so that was nice

I know we are now if offically, very greedy territory but could we go for the trifecta with the Red Head tomorrow....lol

thanks again
Title: What a Weekend
Post by: Tavasco on January 31, 2015, 02:15:20 PM
That was ugly, scary and surprisingly the stewards got it right.

Testa Rossi - What a beauty!

Congratulations - Way To Go.



Who do you like in the Superbowl?
Title: Re: What a Weekend
Post by: shanahan on January 31, 2015, 02:18:00 PM
Seahawks by 20+.  wish I could get a bet down from here in freezevill.


No, I don\'t have a rooting interest.
Title: Re: What a Weekend
Post by: TGJB on January 31, 2015, 02:37:34 PM
I think you need to person-to-person Frank D.
Title: Re: What a Weekend
Post by: richiebee on January 31, 2015, 10:53:11 PM
Congrats to Jimmy C, hat trick with two stakes.

In the Supe, not betting, do not have hot or cold feelings for either side;
hoping for a game that might keep me awake for 4 hours.
Title: Re: What a Weekend
Post by: covelj70 on February 01, 2015, 04:10:45 AM
Thanks Richie. Really appreciate that. Kind of pinching myself this morning to make sure it\'s real.

Thanks again.

Happy super bowl day.
Title: Re: Three year olds at GP
Post by: ajkreider on February 22, 2015, 01:20:28 PM
Another big win for him.  12 length score against optional claimers.  4 seconds clear of the maiden fillies.  2 on the older cheap claimers.

Looks to be following Constitution\'s path to the Florida Derby.  Will make handicapping really interesting if he joins Itsaknockout and Upstart there (though I\'d bet on the Wood for the latter).
Title: Re: Three year olds at GP
Post by: Flighted Iron on February 22, 2015, 05:39:20 PM
I\'d wager itsa goes to Louisiana .
Title: Re: Three year olds at GP
Post by: aceriley on February 22, 2015, 05:49:00 PM
I\'m still impressed: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jc5Lmuyrfms

These are two serious Triple Crown nominated 3 year olds, finishing 11 lengths clear of the rest. They rank very well on all the numbers on chef-de-race.com. They seem like dirt horses and have the right style - go early and keep going. The Godolphin barely won this one on the outside but I like the runner-up best, he has heart he almost fought back to win on the inside. I now have Las Vegas futures action on him booked at 90-1. I just need him to be in the gate on May 2nd. The UAE Derby on 3/28 will be a race to watch, I say.
Title: Re: Three year olds at GP
Post by: Tavasco on February 22, 2015, 07:26:14 PM
Ace,

Mr. Covello speaks to the appearance of derby horses, well the one you like from Meydan wins the looks a champion hands down, from what I was able to see. Once these imports start coming over for the Kentucky Derby, if they ever do, I suspect the race will be changed forever. Similar to the modern  Ryder Cup!

The other horse (winner) resembles Sea Biscuit? Go Figure.
Title: Re: Three year olds at GP
Post by: Flighted Iron on February 23, 2015, 10:58:50 AM
Ajkreider,

  Pardon the brevity of that statement. It wasn\'t meant to challenge you. I remember reading something along the lines where Pletcher was trying to keep his
colts apart as long as possible. With ITSA being put up he probably gained enough points and solidified his derby position. Re Upstart: from reading it seems they are going to the Wood. I haven\'t discounted him yet. There was some bumping,but he did gut it out the last 110 yards better than the rest.The Wood will be the tell-tale. As of right now I\'m leaning to FFO as i think we\'ve not seen his best.

Good luck,
Flighted iron
Title: Re: Three year olds at GP
Post by: Flighted Iron on February 23, 2015, 12:04:12 PM
Just read in the DRF Pletcher plans to run Itsa in the Fla Derby.