FWIW: from the Bloodhorse Forum, someone claiming to have figs from the Ragozin office
Topic: Rag numbers for Preps (1 of 8), Read 163 times
Conf: Triple Crown Forum
From: JAKE15
Date: Wednesday, April 14, 2004 04:48 PM
Just got the numbers
The Cliff\'s Edge ran a zero (a 4.25 pt top)
Lion Heart ran a .50 (a 2 pt top)
Smarty Jones ran a 1.75 (2 pts worse than the Rebel #)
Tapit ran a 6 (2.5 point new top).
OK so we have seen Beyers and Rags, who the hell cares, like I tell ALL MY WOMEN, the best is saved for last.
Post Edited (04-15-04 06:37)
I\'m still trying to \"figure\" out how one comes up with a valid number for the Wood since it was the only two-turn race that day other than a marathon 1 5/16 race at the beginning of the card.
Good luck,
Joe B.
I know how. Isn\'t the 6 he gave Tapit the same figure he gave Chilukki.
Yes that 6, the one he gave Chilukki when she broke her maiden going 4 1/2 furlongs as a two year old filly in April.
Remember the explanation--\"HE MADE IT UP\" !!
More from Jake15.
Most of the debate has been, who has the numbers right. I suspect some folks here might be interested in what Rags have been given out, despite what SC might think.
I can\'t believe that RHT only paired up in the SA Derby.
Topic: Jake-SA Derby #\'s?? (2 of 3), Read 25 times
Conf: Triple Crown Forum
From: JAKE15
Date: Thursday, April 15, 2004 10:08 AM
Of course I do not mind.
usually The TG numbers are about 3 points faster than the Rag #\'s.
Castledale ran a 4.75 in the SAD which is a 4 point top from his last race as a 2yo (grass race). He ran a 9.5 in the San Rafael.
RHT ran another 3.75. His three races thus far are: 4, 3.75, 3.75.
Imperialism ran a 7.25 in the SAD which is a 3.75 bounce from his last race.
Eddington ran a 5.75 which is a better number than Tapit\'s.
Master David received an 8\". He ran two 7\'s in his first two races this year.
Limehouse ran a 5.50 in the Blue Grass which was a 1.5 point new top for him.
Pollard\'s Vision last three race #\'s are
5, 6.25, 6.25.
Lots of interesting similarities and differences, and when we post the pre derby sheets after I do the Lexington figures next Tue or so we can all look at them. But one thing I\'ve noticed in looking at the Rag figures for all the Derby preps (they can be found in the Thoroughbred Times, which still calls Ragozin the \"father of speed figures\"-- wonder why Jake or Friedman haven\'t corrected them on that, since they know that Donaldson, for one, preceded him by at least 30 years with sophisticated figures)-- they have finally corrected the systemic problem they had with the sprint/route relationships in Southern California.
Those who were here last spring remember that I pointed out the obvious (and ridiculous) bad numbers they were giving out, especially going long-- if you go into the archives on this board for last April you can find my post with an extensive list of them just at the major stake level. Clearly, Len went back and ran the same kind of broad check that we do, and found that what I had pointed out was true-- they had a 3 to 4 point error in their sprint/route relationship. It looks like they have now fixed it (say thank you, those of you who use Rag figures), and I wonder whether they corrected the back figures as well.
jbelfior said:
\"I\'m still trying to \"figure\" out how one comes up with a valid number for the Wood since it was the only two-turn race that day other than a marathon 1 5/16 race at the beginning of the card.\"
Extrapolation
It will be a valid number. I have to assume Rags splits variants between one and two turns as a matter of course also. With a 20mph wind day how can you not? But obviously theres a certain amount of \"art\" to coming up with the figure. If its done as I did it, you start with the pars for two turn races of those conditions. (I think I recall reading Jerry is so adept he skips this stage now...I always glanced at the pars) You get a rough variant for two turns then you compare it to the rough variant from the one turn trips to get an idea of the split. (obviously T-Graph\'s variant is a figure in flux with his insight into changing track conditions...i never changed variants except on rain, but I fully agree with it..i was naive then...lol) You propose your two turn variant add it to the par and assign a fig to the winner and then work back factoring your performance variables. Then you scrutinize the figures assigned for a reasonable relationship to each individual horse\'s previous races. If the results are not reasonable you change your theorized variant. The relationship in finishing order is known in the subject race, the skill is in ensuring that the race figures for individual horses is not out of relationship with previous races. The task obviously becomes more difficult in certain situations than others. For example, developing horses or one race at the distance that day. With consistent horses thats not a difficult thing to overcome, with inconsistent horses it can be very difficult, because essentially with a one race sample you can\'t effectively compare and contrast to fine tune your figures for that odd distance race. This year is even more difficult because of the big efforts and large number of bounces. When half the field bounces your remaining sample to confirm your figure is smaller. Obviously in a two horse race its tougher to assign figures. Luckily for Jerry, Master David and Eddington have been fairly consistent horses and I think he\'s got a handle on Swingforthefences so personally I would have a good deal of confidence in his Wood number.
Its the Bluegrass that scares me...lol
CtC
Post Edited (04-15-04 18:37)
CtC you know your stuff.
Nice write-up but this isn\'t the first one I\'ve seen from you in the last few days.
Have you ever considered writing a book.
LOL
Did I mention how one bad apple CAN spoil the whole bunch?
lol
What do you think of Baffert taking that nice young jockey off both his horses after telling him he could have his choice? I find that very bad. I think I\'m going to start calling him \"Bad Bob Baffert\"
:)
Did you all see that Lukas has one more chance to get in the Derby? (Wait I forgot the Derby Trial) He\'s got a 600,000 dollar Keeneland 2yr old in training sale buy going for Bev and Bob Lewis in the Lexington. Wicked Wayne has a pretty dang good record in the Lexington. He is batting Zed for cycle in 25 trips to the Keeneland plate however and his Yearly win percentage is down to 4% in 135 races. His on base stats are worse than a pitcher in the American League. Man, I\'ve seem some disasters in my life. Some totally inexplicable nosedives but this is up there with the best. He\'s still got some expensive horses. I glanced at his pedigree, not much there from what I can see. 600K for a Cal Bred? He must have scorched the track at the undertack show.
Wayne, if you\'re listening, those big moves on 2 yr old horses in training can take the starch out of them long term. Stick to the yearlings.
Can he bust out with this one?
CtC
Post Edited (04-15-04 19:40)
a swiss yodeler no less, whose get couldn\'t go 6.01 furlongs if you strapped them to bob\'s beer wagon.
CtC--
Then perhaps Dickinson wasn\'t blowing smoke. TAPIT was not at his best. Throw in the fact that MASTER DAVID was coming off a sickness of his own, and was probably short of his best, what does this all say about EDDINGTON??
Perhaps Henning and supporting cast will be fortunate if EDDINGTON does not get in.
Good Luck,
Joe B.