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General Category => Ask the Experts => Topic started by: Labeebmile on January 13, 2015, 08:36:21 PM

Title: NHC Roll Call
Post by: Labeebmile on January 13, 2015, 08:36:21 PM
How many are in this year and with how many entries? I\'m in with just one entry. Tried chasing a second, but life interferes and one will be enough to have a good time.
Title: Re: NHC Roll Call
Post by: IK on January 14, 2015, 01:46:26 PM
In with one and think the rule allowing a second entry stinks.....am also playing in the Last Chance on Thursday trying to earn a second entry
Title: Re: NHC Roll Call
Post by: weekend warrior on January 18, 2015, 05:54:36 AM
In with one. Also don\'t like the two entry rule but recognize it drives tour participation all year. (Took advantage of it last year, so can\'t complain too loudly.) Good luck to Team Thorograph. Make some noise.
Title: Re: NHC Roll Call
Post by: Labeebmile on January 18, 2015, 07:45:25 PM
While the odds are obviously horrible, this is pretty cool:

http://www.ntra.com/en/news-media/press-releases/2015/1/17/treasure-island-offering-future-wager-on-nhc-champ/

Only to find out that I didn\'t qualify in time...

https://unbearablelightnessofbetting.files.wordpress.com/2015/01/nhccurrentlines.pdf

Guess I won\'t be making a token wager after all.
Title: Fighting 48
Post by: TGJB on January 19, 2015, 03:15:34 PM
So far we have identified 48 TG players that have qualified for the contest, there may be more.
Title: 48 going on 55...
Post by: TGJB on January 20, 2015, 11:52:33 AM
...and they\'re still dribbling in.

Pretty amazing that our guys grabbed over 10% of the NHC spots.
Title: Re: 48 going on 55...
Post by: lovetwogamble on January 20, 2015, 07:32:24 PM
Good luck to all....and boy\'s may one of you BRING HOME THE GOLD.
Title: Re: 48 going on 55...
Post by: miff on January 21, 2015, 08:23:06 AM
Pulling for Jerry M, Staten Island pal,to bring home the cash from Vegas. He\'ll be using TG.
Title: Re: 48 going on 55...
Post by: johnnym on January 21, 2015, 01:01:18 PM
Good luck to all you guys
Title: Heinz
Post by: TGJB on January 21, 2015, 02:26:04 PM
Final count is 57 TGers in the NHC. A lot of them have TG caps, should be a nice visual.
Title: Re: Heinz
Post by: heatherk on January 21, 2015, 02:29:46 PM
Any extra caps JB. Bring some to the Spa. Thanks.
Title: Re: Heinz
Post by: TGJB on January 21, 2015, 03:32:16 PM
Remind me then.
Title: Re: 48 going on 55...
Post by: Rick B. on January 22, 2015, 04:20:54 AM
miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Pulling for Jerry M, Staten Island pal,to bring
> home the cash from Vegas. He\'ll be using TG.

I\'ve got $20 on him in the NHC Futures Pool @ 100-1.

Sharpest handicapper I know.
Title: Re: 48 going on 55...
Post by: miff on January 22, 2015, 08:05:55 AM
Whoever wins deserves a monument erected to them. Format has become beyond an idiotic stabfest,now it\'s 3 days with a final table to boot.Idiots running the contest trying to copycat final table suspense like the World Series Of Poker.

Many excellent handicappers there at the mercy of luck and the winner will need it to take the top spot.Guy playing tells me it\'s possible to win the contest without picking a single winner,place money counts. Brilliant!!
Title: Re: 48 going on 55...
Post by: TGJB on January 22, 2015, 08:28:15 AM
I would make it about a million to one against winning this by only hitting place bets.

Christian Hellmers told me he thinks he\'s 15-18% to win. If he does it will be like Ruth calling his shot.

I\'m working with Roger, I don\'t think anyone is better than 4% to win this.
Title: Re: 48 going on 55...
Post by: miff on January 22, 2015, 08:34:20 AM
\"I would make it about a million to one against winning this by only hitting place bets\"


JB,

Agree but that possibility should be eliminated.Honestly think, because of format,one could pick out of a hat, hit a few cap horses and win.

Mike
Title: Re: 48 going on 55...
Post by: TGJB on January 22, 2015, 08:56:31 AM
That becomes more likely if you eliminate place bets.
Title: Re: 48 going on 55...
Post by: miff on January 22, 2015, 09:11:42 AM
Player tells me that like 85+% of the winners of non cash qualifiers catch a cap horse. Seems without a cap winner,if one or more hits, you have little chance.
Title: Re: 48 going on 55...
Post by: TGJB on January 22, 2015, 09:20:49 AM
When all players are not betting the same races (meaning the optional ones) and there are hundreds of players and 7 tracks, there are going to be some big prices, and several people are going to have them. That means you have to be one of them.

Unlike daily playing, where you\'re trying to end up in the black (and are risking real money), here you need to end up in the black A LOT, in a small sample.

They could easily reward consistency if they wanted to-- just give everyone an extra $2 (or some other amount) on top of the mutuel price every time they have a winner. Would take some of the emphasis away from bombs.
Title: Re: 48 going on 55...
Post by: TGJB on January 22, 2015, 02:51:26 PM
Alan says he counted wrong, final total is 55.

Still...
Title: Re: 48 going on 55...
Post by: TGJB on January 26, 2015, 10:19:48 AM
Looks like none of our guys made the top ten, which was no shock to me since I was one of our 55 who did not, and there wasn\'t much to get your hands around.

The 50-1 shot that won at GP on day one might be the least likely winner I have ever seen, should have been at least 500-1.
Title: Re: 48 going on 55...
Post by: mbeychok on January 27, 2015, 11:20:34 AM
It was a tough weekend for everyone. I made it to 17th early on Day 3 but then fired blanks although a win by Wild Heiress would have gotten me to the final table (she lost a 3-horse photo at 15-1). There is NO way I could have won it though as the final table 7 races totally chalked out and I was too far behind to catch up.

Weird sequence of winners made for a jammed up leaderboard day 2. Any winner jumped you up dozens of spots. I fell to 382 early day 2 and ended at 24th while not having the greatest day. Planned to play chalk/short priced horses on Day 3 to chip up but after hitting a 9-5 --- YES I played a 9-5 -- I kinda tilted after Wild Heiress lost and went back to trying to hit the one buster I knew I needed with no luck.

Thanks again to Thorograph for free stuff and there is NO way I would have ever played Spirit Rules if not for Thoros. I had a generous interpretation of his line that was more of a desperation read than anything else.

thanks,
Michael
Title: Nhc..thanks thoro-graph!
Post by: mattjr62 on January 27, 2015, 07:29:21 PM
Thanks again to everyone at Thoro-graph for helping me to finally cash (after going 0 for 6 in Nhc) finished 19th for $18,400.Thorograph made Double Secret in Tampa\'s 10th a strong contender and in this tourney to contend you need a limit job. Made a run on Sunday to reach 10th but flattened out! Wore the cap proudly when they took my pic but after I fell out of the top ten sure they burned the photo. The usual cast of characters were there with all their noise and bravado. Would recommend to a new qualifier they get a seat in the main room for the pageantry but sitting in the smaller room offers less distractions. But either way it was nice to be in a event where they celebrate the horseplayer. The banquet was (though a touch long) outstanding as they played Steven Crist\'s introduction at the eclipse awards. Crist let the racing gods know that this game is a niche sport without us players. Nice tribute to Ron Rippey and Mike Mayo who passed away and were inducted into the new handicappers hall of fame (hope its not in a trailer like the old boxing hall of fame)! Thanks again Thoro-graph staff for all you do.