I\'m in general agreement with miff in that breeding takes a back seat to on track performance when it comes to a question of a horse\'s ability to stretch out. But since we\'re moving into Derby future season, and I\'m looking at lightly raced bombs, I was wondering what everyone thinks of \"mixed\" pedigrees.
What peeked my interest was a horse that broke his maiden easily at first asking today at GP - Materiality.
A Pletcher trainee, he\'s by Afleet Alex, out of a Langfuhr mare. That\'s a Belmont winner on top, with a dead sprinter on the bottom. I\'ve a bad habit of ignoring the sprint side with \"there\'s plenty of stamina . . .\"
So, is half a sprint pedigree a deal breaker, or no?
I make a big distinction between stretching out and winning the Kentucky Derby @ 1+1/4 miles. Every year I watch brilliantly bred precocious colts try to stretch their speed to longer and longer distances. Very few with any real success.
Look, we all know that neither Drosselmeyer nor any of his prodigy will ever win the All American Futurity even if they could enter. No quarter horse will ever win the Belmont Stakes. It is physical and that\'s breeding.
The difficulty arises when using statistical data to describe a colts physicality. Many use the AWD of parents but that is of course skewed by where a horses siblings campaigned. For example, when the Euros visit for the Breeders Cup. we see AWD\'s of 10 - 12 furlongs yet U.S. sires rarely go above 8.0. Because they rarely race at long distances in the U.S. or short distances in Europe.
I routinely follow the Aussie races. More than Ready also a prominent Aussie sire taught me something. My U.S. bias had me thinking his progeny were both precocious and brilliant. This helped me to more than a couple of maiden scores. It is a little unusual to win 1st out down under. Then I noticed More Than Ready progeny winning @ distances longer than 1+1/4. You will see it in the Orient also. Art Sherman said recently a good horse can run at any distance, in support of California Chrome.
I like Brohammer Sartin or whomever\'s concept of %Early is attributed too. I just do not find sprint race winners running <.49 %e any more than a classic distance winner running > .51 %e. I used to be lost in turf racing until I began relying on this factor to differentiate like numbered contenders. So in a nutshell if a horse can run a competitive TG # with a %e about or less than .50 I will have confidence that the horse will be competitive at a longer distance.
I believe what experienced horsemen know is that a router can be distinguished from a sprinter with a glance. Further I\'m guessing that the length of a horses stride is also indicative of its best distance, maybe even i% of body fat correlates to awd..
None of the above trumps fitness in general which is why the Art of reading patterns is so interesting. Inside info from the back side is so highly sought race week but use at your own risk.
Ancestry is a great clue in general, but no answer in the specific.
Materiality for what it\'s worth is a 1/2 to Pletcher\'s 2014 Gazelle winner My Miss Sophia. She is by Unbridled\'s Song and won her two races going 8F and 9F.
Afleet Alex was darn good in the Belmont and has sired plenty of routers so I\'d say at least a middle distance is easily within this colt\'s scope. Nothing close to an expert but that\'s my two cents.
Look this one up but it\'s pretty accurate.
Todd Pletcher has a record of exactly 0 for EVERYTHING in the Kentucky Derby win column with \"superstar looking\" 3yo\'s that ran at Gulfstream Park.
Or as I believe Zito called one of TAP\'s 3yo Gulfstream horses this year \"World Beater(s).\" Just a shame they aren\'t same outside the friendly confines of Florida.