Thorograph and Ragozin clearly have a difference in opinion regarding the last few derby preps. A question for Thorograph... do you guys take into account the fact that both Came Home and Harlan\'s Holiday were ridden quite hard for the last three or four furlongs in their final prep? Meanwhile, Buddah was reserved until mid stretch by Pat Day. If Mccarron and Prado had reserved their horses like Day did, and their times were even slower, would you have raised their figures? If Day had used Buddah a bit more would you have lowered his? It appears as though Ragozin is taking a stand here, saying Buhhah has a lot more potential than Came Home or Harlan\'s holiday because he simply has not been used yet, while you guys are not concerned with potential, just the final time and trip? Is this a fair characterization?
Michael D. wrote:
>
> Thorograph and Ragozin clearly have a difference in opinion
> regarding the last few derby preps. A question for
> Thorograph... do you guys take into account the fact that
> both Came Home and Harlan\'s Holiday were ridden quite hard
> for the last three or four furlongs in their final prep?
> Meanwhile, Buddah was reserved until mid stretch by Pat Day.
> If Mccarron and Prado had reserved their horses like Day did,
> and their times were even slower, would you have raised their
> figures? If Day had used Buddah a bit more would you have
> lowered his? It appears as though Ragozin is taking a stand
> here, saying Buhhah has a lot more potential than Came Home
> or Harlan\'s holiday because he simply has not been used yet,
> while you guys are not concerned with potential, just the
> final time and trip? Is this a fair characterization?
TG--Lots of assumptions in there disguised as questions, but to the degree I can respond--
1. We don\'t take into account the way horses are ridden.
2. If those horses had run slower FINAL TIMES they would have gotten worse numbers.
3. If Buddha had run a faster FINAL TIME he would have received a better figure.
4. You should ask Ragozin, but neither of us gives a figure based on potential.
It sounds like you are used to betting European races, where there are some very slow paced races and Timeform gives out \"potential\" figures.