ran yesterday, IMHO. El Kabeir looks the real deal. Didn\'t have things all his way, amd still blew away the field without laying it all down. Time looks to be okay. The only other race was a 12k claimer group, but they were 2+ seconds slower, and there looked to be some decent horses in there. And that winner was a point lighter.
The only 2 worth mentioning at GP ware the top two in the Spectaular Bid, and they won\'t go past a mile. Very impressed with Barbados, finishing well into a strong breeze.
Can\'t say much for the MMM winner. Did not finish well at all. Maybe got too hot, as he was sweating a ton in the paddock. I suppose the runner up still has room to improve after only two races, but a .26 and change final 1/4, even into a good breeze doesn\'t say greatness.
El Kabeir (a half to El Kabong?)(El Kabong was smashing guitars well before Pete
Townshend) was very impressive drawing off after wide on both turns, beating a
very soft (my opinion) Grade III field.
Also worth mentioning Jimmy Covello\'s Majestic Affair very impressive in the Fred
\"Cappy\" Caposella. Will be interesting to see if Jim will be able to resist
temptation with this very sharp 3YO sprinter.
Does anyone have any info on the dam? Scat Daddy\'s could get the 1 1/4 I guess?
Maggie was very negative on El Kabeir in her pre race comments questioning even yesterdays distance saying he looks like a stone cold sprinter. Terranova\'s post race comments are pointing to the 1st Saturday in May.
I certainly have no early symptoms of Derby fever.
Frank D.
Frank D:
I personally would not trust any results coming out of Aqueduct\'s inner track meet if you know what I mean.
Good Luck,
Joe B
re: Sat @ GP
I was impressed by by Bluegrass Singer in the MMM and by how fast he ran the first three fractions not the last. The race was over by the time they hit the stretch. MAWTHOOQ was well backed and I assume, intended and not by just the retiree\'s. Derby horses? unlikely as you note but reminds me some of Vicars in Charge.
Most of all I was impressed by Night Prowler coming from Chad Brown\'s barn down to S. Fl. his price reflected the confidence the folks have in Chad\'s stock more than the horses accomplishments to date. The trip was ugly he had to stop and start, bob and weave. The running line says \"wore them down late\" - not the way I saw it! He just didn\'t have room to run until mid stretch and while he did not explode he won a race where he looked beaten.
Nice to see Tomlinson win one off a rest albeit on the dirt. An angle that used to be a mainstay on turf. Also the scratch of Bluegrass Singer from that race was fortuitous.
As for Aqueduct, How was the brunch? Regarding El Kabeir very impressive. It was the Jerome after all. I expect Terranova to keep it simple, stay home point toward Wood. The horse is fast enough got some pts? I assume the Servis horse NASA was in very good form and developing in a healthy manor. Which leads to the dam and dam\'s dam. Very ordinary OH bred that somehow got to Stonerside? History suggests durability and soundness but don\'t know why the dam did not race.
Hey Richie, thanks alot for the nice thoughts about Majestic Affair
That was certainly a fun and exciting way to start the year.
Majestic is a 100% stone cold sprinter, no delusions about him going two turns.
A race like the Bay Shore would be terrific for him I think but obviously alot has to go right between now and then!
In terms of El Kabeir, I think he is a very very nice horse but I don\'t think he has any chance of getting 1 1/4. Physically, he doesn\'t look at all like a Derby horse. They will 100% be on the derby trail all the way to the first Sat in May but I wouldn\'t use any Derby futures money on him. Hopefully he stays sound through the Derby trail and can win some of the shorter distance races on the other side of the Derby. very nice horse.
I hope you\'re wrong, since I ended up on him in the first pool of the Derby futures at 76-1 :)...
well, at 76-1, I think it\'s a good play, he\'s down to 20-1 now and he will be 15 to 1 or more even if he makes it all the way to the starting gate in May so I was more talking about someone playing him at 20-1 right now
no one should listen to what I say anyway on the subject, I was the mope that tried to talk everyone off Cali Chrome last year even after I a) tried to buy him in January, and b) played him in three different futures pools early on.
I just massively overanalyze everything related to the Derby because I get so excited about it so you can pretty much ignore everything I say on this, or any other topic for that matter, between now and the first Sat in May!
good luck!
Jim, I printed this one out and will refer to it here often as the year goes on.
So how much would you take for your ticket Al?
Sorry, I\'m just messing with ya. On the flip side. How about 3/5 on any 3 y/o other than the 24 listed pool #1 entrants. Do I understand that correctly? I don\'t fully grok the merits of the bet. Did some late betting bridge jumper sour the price on other than? Looking back has pool #1 historically excluded the KD winner? No offense to the pool players who I assume plunge for 5 months of anticipation and excitement at the prospects of a healthy price. Who does that at odds on? Pessimists?
Good luck with your future bet, if most loved him you would not have gotten 75/1.
I fully expect to rip it to little pieces, and I know it\'s worse than a fool\'s errand to bet in fall Derby futures. But it\'ll be fun if he can manage to stay in one piece and handle two turns, won\'t it?
I will add one more that you can use as bulletin board material for the next four months!
when I try to argue that whatever slug Dallas Stewart gets into the race doesn\'t have a chance to hit the board, will someone please smack me in the head?
Wrongly tried to talk some sense into me last year but I didn\'t listen because I am a stuborn idiot!
Hey Jim,
Who was that who led your horse into the winner\'s circle? Looked like the thrill of a lifetime.
Dick
Watched El Kabeir and was somewhat impressed, but agree a Scat Daddy colt may not get the Derby distance even with a Unbridled Song mare on the bottom. Then out of the corner of my eye, I saw General Bellamy picking up the pieces.
Any thoughts, experts?
A Bellamy Road colt out of an Awesome Again mare sure got my attention for for the Derby distance. And I get Bill Mott, too? Hmmmmm.....
I think you have landed on a very interesting colt. His breeding is attractive as one would expect of Mr. G. Steinbrenner RIP.
I\'m not familiar with the principal owner Bach. They appear to be a syndicator with a modicum of success. They may be ready to cash out and Gentleman Jim Covello might find the price attractive. Seeing Jim\'s recent and wonderfully honest post signals game on Derby Fever is-a-comin. Next a nice negative number by a 1st or 2nd time starter @ GP.
I would like to see Mr. Mott win the derby and sooner rather than later. This colt is certainly no sprinter and as you suggest should come into his own as the season progresses. I am wondering if that 2nd start the one taken off the turf was he entered as MTO or was Mott aiming to try the turf?
The jump to stakes company shows me the horse has a future. We didn\'t see his best race when he missed the start but he ran professionally showing me good character.
lovetwogamble Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Any thoughts, experts?
>
> A Bellamy Road colt out of an Awesome Again mare
> sure got my attention for for the Derby distance.
> And I get Bill Mott, too? Hmmmmm.....
Not sure you want HOF trainer Bill Mott for a Derby contender. In an
outstanding career going back to 1978, Mott has had very little success in the
Triple Crown races. A second by Illinois Derby winner Vision and Verse in the
1999 Belmont. A win by Drosslmeyer in the 2010 Belmont.
Now if you tell me you like a Bellamy Road colt to win the Wood, I\'ll start
remembering BR\'s 17-1/2 length blowout in the 2005 running of that race, in
which he equaled the track record for 9 furlongs (1:47).
General Bellamy caught my eye too. Not sure what kind of number he will get for the Jerome effort but his numbers going in we\'re relatively slow. Would be quite a bit of development needed to get down to derby contention. I could see him making an impact later in the year, perhaps in the Belmont or Travers.
Ran a top but still very slow compared to many others at this point.
Always fun to start discussing the Derby nearly 5 months in advance. Can\'t wait until opening weekend at Keeneland this year. Already hearing hype about Itsaknockout after his fast 5 1/4 length romp Sunday at GP.
Jim, I think it\'s a bit unfair to compare Dallas Stewarts last two runner up horses. Last year, Commanding Curve came in with a Very Nice Line (5/5,2) and and a very under rated 3rd place effort in the La Derby. (I love to see Derby Preps where a horse gets bumped around a bit in a large field but still comes on at the end.) While Golden Soul the prior year is a completely different story. I have said this before and it\'s been profitable for me. CD is kind to turf runners, especially when the track comes up wet. In 2013 it rain both on Oaks day and Derby day and I think the track was listed as sloppy. To me that was a major factor in Golden Soul\'s performance.
Thought Exodus was a very nice looking colt and bet on him when he appeared at Keeneland. Still the horse that impressed me the most during the Keeneland meet was Carpe Diem, extremely rare to see a horse win a 5 1/2 furlong race and stretch out the way he did to win the 1 1/16 Breeders Futurity. Call me crazy but I\'m awaiting the return of Casse/Oxley\'s Skyway who won the Best Pal at Delmar. Again it\'s early, way early.
Wrong,
Time does fly, Derby now less than 4 months away.In the next 60 days the cloudy picture will become much clearer.
Mike
In 60 days it will be early March. And only marginally clearer.
I will say this-- this is by far the strongest crop ever, in figure terms. There are a whole bunch that have already run really fast, and while some will fall apart, for the most part the fast ones been given time off since doing it and are being managed properly. That makes it very unlikely some new shooter will come along and beat all of them.
Agree with the number of fast 2yr olds but disagree about March timing.Most,not all,recent derby winners declared themselves by like mid March.
Along with a lot of others who declared themselves too soon and were going back into the Derby. And mid March is 70 days.
Will take fast over slow in March all day,60 or 70 days.
He was picking up the pieces, but against the also rans. Didn\'t gain anything against the winner, despite that one being on cruise control.