As if American Pharoah isn\'t enough, Baffy unleashes a young sizey monster in Dortmund,quietly snuck in an Alw nw1x 2 yr old race at CD yesterday, derby surface prep.
Many very fast TG 2 yr old figs so far,maybe too fast.Dortmund ran a 95 Beyer yesterday and was wide off the far turn making it like TG 2 territory to go with his maiden win TG 4.25,top prospect
Mike
Was there yesterday and thought he laid over that field. Not sure if it was sneaky by Baffy or he\'s just a 2nd stringer, time will tell. Terranova\'s horse ran another big figure at a very nice price! Will be I retesting to see if he can keep that one healthy.
Wrong,
Doubtful Dortmund is a second stringer, Cali clockers fawning over him as he destroys workmates in the AM as he\'s presently physically ahead of most 2 yr olds.Whether he develops and goes forward or not, a pure guess.
EL Kabir ran a 92 Beyer(like TG 4) yesterday and kinda staggered late, not sure about a TC campaign in spite of his huge TG fig sprinting at the SPA.
Mike
Mike
To be honest I tossed a few $ on Dortmund in Derby future exactas following the race. Also met the breeder and she was on pins and needles before the race. Think she\'s rather proud today.
Wrong,
Will also be a little shot in the arm for Big Brown a huge failure in the breeding shed so far. Who woudda thunk Big Brown would end up fathering NY Bred slow rats.
Mike
Same fate befell Spectacular Bid (NY sire). Spent his last days somewhere up around Unadilla, I think. His coat turned all white.
Derby Futures Pool:Bloodhorse
\"Kaleem Shah\'s Dortmund, a son of Big Brown, is 2-for-2 in his brief career for three-time Derby winner Baffert. Yet to make his first stakes appearance, Dortmund closed as the top individual choice at 9-1, bet down from 50-1 on the morning line\"
Huh? Aren\'t the odds higher than 9-1 that Dortmund will even be in the race come derby day, much less win the race?
You should have bet less then...
Respectfully,unless you are betting 30-40-50-1 shots it\'s a sucker bet.If there is reincarnation, I want to come back as the bookmaker for the Derby future pool.
Yes, of course. At least the early pools.
Handle on pool was 232k. I\'d love to be able to sit on that kind of money and invest it for 6 months.
well, if they are real clever they might get 1% on that for 6m. dont spend the grand all in one place.
Ain\'t much. The Rainbow pick 6 would be a better example.
I agree Miff. Booking Derby futures in November is some nice action to have. I would suggest taking it all or most of it to Vegas and bet it all on red or black and hope for the best. Still plenty of time to book more action and lay it off as needed to cover your backside. And if nothing else cover yourself on race day. Little less than a 50/50 shot at a free $200k.
Mjellish,
Curious if there are any stats around which show all the money wagered into the Derby future pools vs what the house paid out to all winners. Would think the house holds a huge profit.
...anyone?
Mike
I couldn\'t agree with you more. I find it incredible that the field is a 3/5 favorite??
I do think, as you said, getting say 71/1 on a horse like Calculator may not be the worst bet ever. But less than 40/1 on any entry phooey!
Confirming, if the horse doesn\'t make the race your ticket does lose?
Miff,
Here\'s a link to a brief discussion from a few years ago about this topic:
https://www.thorograph.com/phorum/read.php?1,66273,66283#msg-66283
I posted some stats about payoffs from pool 1 through the Derby (not what you were asking, but somewhat informative).
My humble perspective is that the risk reward is lousy and the occasional antithetical payout makes it even worse. All that said, I still like to put a futures bet down in the later pools just to prime the pump!
Andrew
Thanks Andrew,
I checked and there is a long line ahead of me to come back as the Derby futures bookmaker.
.....tough crowd.
Mike
When you\'re talking about Vegas, as opposed to the pari-mutuel futures, aside from maybe a 50% chop and getting to hold the money, there\'s the issue of someone getting back there to cash without forgetting or losing the ticket over 6 months.
Was at a racing get together this week, Jerardi, Mollica, Dennis Heard, Glenn Lane, Yagoda... what everyone wanted to know was who are these Richiebee and Miff guys.
This was a good story of a future bet cashed at 500-1.
http://www.ajc.com/news/sports/rory-mcilroys-dad-cashes-171k-british-open-bet/ngjz9/
Drew Mollica I know for 25 years, have not seem him since he stop tending bar in the yard at Siro\'s!
He took a step down, he\'s a lawyer now.
I knew that. Many live horses from Drew when he booked mounts for \"The Ant Man\" who could have been an all time great level jockey.
Antley once jumped off a very slow NJ Bred who had just gotten beaten badly in a 6 furlong race at The Meadowlands. The owner, a glass half full kinda guy, looked at the jockey hopefully and asked \"You think he might need a route of ground?\"
Without hesitation Antley replied. \"Charles Town or Penn National might be far enough\".
miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I knew that. Many live horses from Drew when he
> booked mounts for \"The Ant Man\" who could have
> been an all time great level jockey.
Why could have been? I thought he was! That guy was one of my favorite riders of all time. If you put together a reel (I know archaic word, but just seems fitting) of his best rides, it would blow away about any other \"great\'s\" reel. I loved it when the horse I liked best had him up. I remember him as an apprentice at Bowie and even before he was a five pound bug he was riding way ahead of his peers. Feel awful that he left so early, but the talent was unquestionably there in my book.
richiebee Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Antley once jumped off a very slow NJ Bred who had
> just gotten beaten badly in a 6 furlong race at
> The Meadowlands. The owner, a glass half full
> kinda guy, looked at the jockey hopefully and
> asked \"You think he might need a route of
> ground?\"
>
> Without hesitation Antley replied. \"Charles Town
> or Penn National might be far enough\".
And smart too!
So Cal,
Assume you are aware of Chris Antleys demons which killed him at like 34.
Not sure he stayed around long enough to be considered one of the greatest, I think he was.Many moons ago Cordero remarked at the Wishing Well at SPA that Antley could become \"the best ever\"
Mike
Dortmund received a Beyer of 91.....halo tarnished?
He is young and learning. We can give him some time to show more. The Death of D Wayne as a factor in things was greatly exaggerated again as usual. The former General Motors on Training is now turning into a modern day version of Frank Whitley!!
Having Baffert and Lukas as factors on the Derby and Oaks trail is not a bad thing for racing, for the press and for the fans who love to love them or hate them....2015 could be fun!!!