Danza Cavallo-- out since July with mediocre thoro numbers in mediocre company in France. No group races. Gets bet down to 3-2 and I\'m laughing--- all the way to the garbage pail as I heavily boxed Clement(1-3-4) in exactas.
\"You must be a g..damn genius Chad Brown.\"
Good Luck,
Joe B
jbelfior Wrote:
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> Danza Cavallo-- out since July with mediocre thoro
> numbers in mediocre company in France. No group
> races. Gets bet down to 3-2 and I\'m laughing---
> all the way to the garbage pail as I heavily boxed
> Clement(1-3-4) in exactas.
>
> \"You must be a g..damn genius Chad Brown.\"
I can be as suspicious as the next guy, but come on --
you\'ve never seen any OTHER trainer improve a Euro
shipper for his first try in North America?
Can\'t help but think that your own bias -- and that
alone -- kept you from cashing a fairly decent exacta
in this race.
(Please don\'t tell us that you left the Brown horse
out of the triple, too; I\'m fresh out of cringe.)
Okay, I\'ll bite. Why would you use a horse you don\'t like at 3/2?
Because I don\'t think I\'m smarter than the trainer.
Plenty of favorites I hate manage to make one of
the top two slots anyway. And when I do leave one
out and he beats me out of the exacta, I blame
myself, not the handicapping gods, or drugs, or
whatever else is handy.
You don\'t have to LIKE the horse at 3/2 to use it defensively in the exacta/exotics, especially underneath. Trust me, so many do the complete toss, that you\'re getting a fair price for the under slot. 25-1 here, would you book that # at 25-1?
I thought 1st LX was a move up? So even if the #\'s are a tad weak , how do you know the LX won\'t do something for the horse.
Of course. But the play here was to take a position AGAINST the favorite, boxing, as I understand it. There are plenty of reasons to use a horse as a favorite if you see him as a threat, just as there are reasons to use longshots. But not just because he\'s the favorite. If we believe that we should just stop handicapping and follow the public.
Never suggested only using because=fave. If you hated the horse you were just plain wrong.
Was saying, if \'overbet\' to win is the only knock, then defensive use underneath is not out of the question.
You didn\'t say it, Rick basically did.
TGJB Wrote:
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> You didn\'t say it, Rick basically did.
I don\'t see it as a binary decision: \"Follow the public
- or - toss a favorite I don\'t like.\"
First of all, no one that has been in this game more than
5 minutes (and has been paying attention) would look at the
Brown horse the way Joe B did, and assume that the pp\'s
we saw from the Euro races were in any way representative
of what we would see in yesterday\'s race.
It\'s no secret that Euros generally improve -- some, by
ALOT -- with first time Lasix. Add in the connections, and
I don\'t care whether you liked the horse or not -- the only
sensible choices were to use the Brown horse, or pass the race.
Second, throwing out the favorite for any reason is something
I find the TG analysts are far too willing to do, in spite of
the long-term average of favorites hitting the exacta ~50%
of the time. That is a serious disadvantage you guys are
putting yourselves (and your customers) at, and for what? To
save a few betting dollars? Nobody using TG is that hard up,
so I write it off as hubris: \"I can beat that stinky old
favorite anytime I want!\"
Am I way off here? I want to beat the favorite as much as
anyone else, I promise, but that 50% number demands some
respect IMO.
We pick the ROTW specifically to show situations where we disagree with conventional handicapping, for better or worse. That\'s the point.
TGJB Wrote:
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> We pick the ROTW specifically to show situations
> where we disagree with conventional handicapping,
> for better or worse. That\'s the point.
This was clarified long ago, and I get that and
understand it perfectly, but...this \"beat the favorite
at all costs\" mentality seems to have crept into the
majority of races reviewed by the TG analysts on a
daily basis, not just the ROTW (and the race in
question, the LI Handicap).
50% is a tough number to beat every time. That\'s *my* point.
I\'d like to hear how others use the favorites. It was big topic in a DRF book a few years ago.
My best wagers are usually win bets and horizontal wagers on long priced horses.
This \"beat the favorite\" mentality versus \"use the favorite\" mentality is what has ruined me on vertical wagers and why I bet verticals less often.
So, for Rick and others. If you are \"using the favorite\" because he hits the exacta 50% of the time, how do you use him? Let\'s say you like the 5-1 third choice as your so-called \"key\" horse. You also are keen on two horses in the 12-1 to 15-1 range \"underneath\" specifically in the exacta and a few other horses that could get third. The favorite doesn\'t look like anything special especially compared to your 5-1 shot but has enough credentials to take 35% of the wagers in the win pool. How do you play the race?
Hey Rick:
I\'m looking for your race analysis PRIOR to post time but can\'t seem to find it.
The Brown horse looked awesome--- one horse out of the 30 listed in the pp\'s actually won a race afterwards. .....and at 4 pm today you loved the Jets too.
Good Luck,
Joe B
Danza had 8 solid works, and first lasix. I have learned the the hard way that Euro class is impossible to quantify. At least I had the \'Bomb horse earlier in the card. Soft grass always helps!
I own a small piece of the pacesetter; she needed firmer ground! Next week, her full sister runs in the Mrs Revere at CD, hoping to turn the tables on Lady Lara, another Euro who beat us at the wire at 9-1 in the Pebbles.
The best grass horses on the planet just come over here at will and win. Give them lasix, soft grass, and impost under 130....how can they lose??
jbelfior Wrote:
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> Hey Rick:
> I\'m looking for your race analysis PRIOR to post
> time but can\'t seem to find it.
>
> The Brown horse looked awesome--- one horse out of
> the 30 listed in the pp\'s actually won a race
> afterwards. .....and at 4 pm today you loved the
> Jets too.
>
> Good Luck,
> Joe B
Joe,
Did you really need me (or anyone else) to tell
you why Euro horses ship here, and why we should
expect them to run better than shown in their pp\'s?
And shame on that Chad Brown, giving this horse
LEGAL medication so he could breathe. G-D crook!
Good Luck indeed,
Rick B.
Fairmount1 Wrote:
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> So, for Rick and others. If you are \"using the
> favorite\" because he hits the exacta 50% of the
> time, how do you use him? Let\'s say you like the
> 5-1 third choice as your so-called \"key\" horse.
> You also are keen on two horses in the 12-1 to
> 15-1 range \"underneath\" specifically in the exacta
> and a few other horses that could get third. The
> favorite doesn\'t look like anything special
> especially compared to your 5-1 shot but has
> enough credentials to take 35% of the wagers in
> the win pool. How do you play the race?
If my key horse is 5-1, I\'ll pass the race, because I
am tired of odds shrinkage: down to 7-2 when the gate
opens, then 5-2 when the horse crosses the wire.
Horses that are 6-1 or more rarely take a late hit. Weird.
For moderately priced horses: win bet and ex backwheel (I
don\'t make place bets) are standard.
Take the key horse and the two bombs, and make a 3 horse
ex box.
Key the favorite in the 1st and 2nd slots in the
tri, use the bombs in 2nd and 3rd, and use your key horse
through all three slots. If 50 cent tri\'s are offered, boxes
are less cumbersome and get the job done.
Simpleton approach, but it works for me.
I get your point Rick. Just not at 3-2.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
Look for value. If there isn\'t any, pass the race.
What I\'ve always done is:
1) Handicap the race
2) Adjust for bias
3) Look at the board and/or ML and see where the value is.
4) Wager based on value i.e Win/Place, exacta\'s, horizontals.
5) If the favorite fits I use it, if it doesn\'t I toss it.
Sometimes I get the bear, sometimes the bear gets me!