Ask the Experts

General Category => Ask the Experts => Topic started by: Dana666 on November 01, 2014, 06:26:44 PM

Title: BC CLASSIC
Post by: Dana666 on November 01, 2014, 06:26:44 PM
Perhaps the worst call ever in American racing history?

If the US weren\'t enough of a joke to the world already, we sure are now.

Gotta love Martin Garcia afterwards; in his words he said he knew he didn\'t really affect any other horses.

Shah\'s acting like why would there even be an inquiry?  

What\'s with Baffert and the CA stewards? Remember the big Cap a few years ago?

Geez, can you imagine going through life with such immunity?

Now seriously, you bet hard earned  money on this crap? Seriously?
Title: Re: BC CLASSIC
Post by: jerry on November 01, 2014, 06:33:51 PM
I\'m with you. This business is a joke. And I didn\'t even bet the race.
Title: Re: BC CLASSIC
Post by: Bet Twice on November 01, 2014, 08:26:45 PM
It was certainly a rough start but not sure you take down a horse in that situation.
Title: Re: BC CLASSIC
Post by: TMW on November 01, 2014, 08:34:17 PM
I had the trifecta and was disgusted cashing it. I have owned hundreds of horses and I am so sad that our sport is now relegated in stature to boxing and gymnastics and synchronized swimming.

I suspect Baffert did this on purpose. I felt bad for Garcia when he was interviewed because he didn\'t know what to say. Acted like he was being deposed -- and was guilty. Poor guy. Typical Baffert. The owner\'s comments were insulting to anyone who isn\'t an idiot. Pompous ass.

They took out the only pace danger to Bayern (Moreno) and also wiped out the morning line favorite (Shared Belief) in the same pre-planned move (in my opinion). Bayern had it all his own way (not my opinion). Trevor\'s voice was trembling when he tried to explain the inane logic of no harm no foul.

One word. Disgusting.

I am ashamed for the sport we all love.
Title: Re: BC CLASSIC
Post by: Bet Twice on November 01, 2014, 08:48:00 PM
If you watch the replay and zoom in you can see the Garcia standing up and vigorously pulling on the right rein to straighten him out - there\'s no way that was intentional.  I\'m no fan of BB but I can\'t fault him there.
Title: Re: BC CLASSIC
Post by: TMW on November 01, 2014, 09:26:45 PM
Bet Twice Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> If you watch the replay and zoom in you can see
> the Garcia standing up and vigorously pulling on
> the right rein to straighten him out - there\'s no
> way that was intentional.  I\'m no fan of BB but I
> can\'t fault him there.

I am, of course, not privy to any Baffert/Garcia conversation pre-race -- but, they did conveniently wipe out the ONLY pace danger to Bayern and also conveniently wiped out the morning line favorite.

Do you really think that if the trainer was from Illinois or England or Peru the horse would not have been disqualified? The entire complexion of the biggest race in America (purse-wise) was affected. If Moreno pressured Bayern like everyone expected, would there have been a different result (yes).

Pretty much all of my horse buddies are in agreement on this one. Including other owners and trainers. You can disagree if you wish. With this new ruling that fouls are never created right out of the gate (only in Southern California) it will be interesting to see what latitude jockeys and trainers will now test going forward.

No sense arguing this one with me -- racing\'s integrity took another big hit.
Title: Re: BC CLASSIC
Post by: jerry on November 01, 2014, 10:35:34 PM
Deliberate or not, it altered the running of the race and compromised the chances of Shared Belief and Moreno.
Title: Re: BC CLASSIC
Post by: Boscar Obarra on November 01, 2014, 11:00:58 PM
Apparently, stewards are loath to take horses down for gate incidents , out of fear that they would be dq\'ing horses 5x a day.

 That would be worse for the game then never taking them down.

 Not defending, but after many years of observation, that\'s my take on it.
Title: Re: BC CLASSIC
Post by: jerry on November 01, 2014, 11:23:43 PM
No other race on either yesterday\'s or today\'s card had a start that was anything close to how rough this one was. If this isn\'t a $5M race, Bayern comes down.
Title: Re: BC CLASSIC
Post by: fjmb on November 02, 2014, 03:28:44 AM
The #5 horse hesitated at the start, making it look worse than it really was.   The right call IMO.
Title: Re: BC CLASSIC
Post by: joemama on November 02, 2014, 03:33:35 AM
Really don\'t feel like playing the races after this incident.  I haven\'t seen the replay on a good enough monitor to see what happened but my guess is besides wiping out SB they got 2 birds with 1 stone by knocking out Marino, Bayerns early competition. Appalling to say the least.
Title: Re: BC CLASSIC
Post by: joemama on November 02, 2014, 03:38:53 AM
Alright  then get rid of the gate.
Title: Re: BC CLASSIC
Post by: Topcat on November 02, 2014, 05:26:20 AM
Top TWO should\'ve come down.   Some newbies might have screamed, but they were most-unlikely to understand the sheer enormity of the atrocities committed.
Title: Re: BC CLASSIC
Post by: miff on November 02, 2014, 05:56:25 AM
Gate fouls rarely cause a DQ because stewards understand that horses frequently break inward or outward first stride or so.Usually in a severe inward or outward break,which causes a cascading chain reaction, a DQ is made.If every minor gate foul resulted in a DQ, the game would awash in controversy and many players would bail.

It stood out to me that an incident/foul of that severity was rather \"quickly\" dismissed.Judgement calls always going to cause problems to one group or another but yesterday was a clear takedown imo which would have been made if not for the \"Baffert\" factor.As far as Garcia intentionally breaking inward, I doubt it as he came out with both lines extended in an effort to dead send, very clear on any replay.

Cali stewards will explain away today at 10am press conference at SA, should be enlightening.
Title: Re: BC CLASSIC
Post by: richiebee on November 02, 2014, 06:31:54 AM
Mike:

With regards to the short amount of time it took the stewards to reach their decision, you must realize that NBC\'s BC fluff-fest had already cut 5 minutes into \"Law and Order --SVU\".
Title: Re: BC CLASSIC
Post by: BitPlayer on November 02, 2014, 07:03:35 AM
Here\'s the analysis from the Pull The Pocket blog, which I think is spot on:

The aftermath of the Classic was surprising; to me anyway. After seeing what Bayern did happen in 1,000 races at Mountaineer, or Sunland or a half dozen other tracks that I play (including in So Cal, a couple times costing me money over the years), I just thought it was a non-starter. I was kind of shocked they even looked at it. When something happens on national TV I guess it gets more play. Regardless, the masses were upset and asking for an \"explanation\". The only explanation that\'s true is \"this happens a bunch of times, horses get wiped out, and we do nothing, and since it happened today we\'re doing exactly what we always do.\" That probably wouldn\'t have gone over well.
Title: Re: BC CLASSIC
Post by: Bet Twice on November 02, 2014, 07:18:56 AM
Amen!
Title: Re: BC CLASSIC
Post by: miff on November 02, 2014, 07:59:43 AM
Cali Stewards Ruling:

\"Following the running of the 12th race today (Breeders' Cup Classic), we posted the inquiry sign to examine an incident at the start (Dirt, 1¼ miles). Involved in the incident were the winner #7 Bayern (M. Garcia) and several horses to his inside — #6 Shared Belief (M. Smith) and #4 Moreno (J. Castellano). Film review revealed that #7 Bayern broke in sharply, bumped #6 Shared Belief, causing a chain reaction with several other horses to his inside, including #4 Moreno, who also broke out slightly. #6 Shared Belief finished fourth, 3½ lengths behind the third place finisher while #4 Moreno finished far behind the leaders. After speaking with the patrol judges and riders involved, it was our unanimous decision that pursuant to CHRB Rule 1699, that the incident occurred in a part of the race where the horses interfered with were not cost the opportunity to place where they were reasonably expected to finish\"
Title: Re: BC CLASSIC
Post by: TMW on November 02, 2014, 08:01:39 AM
miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Gate fouls rarely cause a DQ because stewards
> understand that horses frequently break inward or
> outward first stride or so.Usually in a severe
> inward or outward break,which causes a cascading
> chain reaction, a DQ is made.If every minor gate
> foul resulted in a DQ, the game would awash in
> controversy and many players would bail.
>
> It stood out to me that an incident/foul of that
> severity was rather \"quickly\" dismissed.Judgement
> calls always going to cause problems to one group
> or another but yesterday was a clear takedown imo
> which would have been made if not for the
> \"Baffert\" factor.As far as Garcia intentionally
> breaking inward, I doubt it as he came out with
> both lines extended in an effort to dead send,
> very clear on any replay.
>
> Cali stewards will explain away today at 10am
> press conference at SA, should be enlightening.


The stewards will probably try to reason that all of the horses had 1 1/4 to position their horses in order to win if they were good enough. If so -- that is just lame. It may make sense if all horses had the exact same running styles but they do not. Bayern took away Moreno\'s only weapon (speed) and compromised the chances of 5 other horses especially V.E. and Shared Belief. All betting biases aside (and I won) the sport would have been better if the stewards took Bayern down.

I have been in love with this sport too long to drop out but, between Del Mar breakdowns, crooked trainers, and biased judges, I would be playing fantasy football or something like that instead.
Title: Re: BC CLASSIC
Post by: TMW on November 02, 2014, 08:03:49 AM
miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Cali Stewards Ruling:
>
> \"Following the running of the 12th race today
> (Breeders' Cup Classic), we posted the inquiry
> sign to examine an incident at the start (Dirt, 1¼
> miles). Involved in the incident were the winner
> #7 Bayern (M. Garcia) and several horses to his
> inside — #6 Shared Belief (M. Smith) and #4 Moreno
> (J. Castellano). Film review revealed that #7
> Bayern broke in sharply, bumped #6 Shared Belief,
> causing a chain reaction with several other horses
> to his inside, including #4 Moreno, who also broke
> out slightly. #6 Shared Belief finished fourth, 3½
> lengths behind the third place finisher while #4
> Moreno finished far behind the leaders. After
> speaking with the patrol judges and riders
> involved, it was our unanimous decision that
> pursuant to CHRB Rule 1699, that the incident
> occurred in a part of the race where the horses
> interfered with were not cost the opportunity to
> place where they were reasonably expected to
> finish\"


As I predicted -- lame.
Title: Re: BC CLASSIC
Post by: jerry on November 02, 2014, 08:06:03 AM
So, with that understanding of,the rule, is it Ok to knock another rider off his mount the first few strides out of the gate? I doubt they\'d go that far but it does fall within the definition if their rule. Where do they get these guys?
Title: Re: BC CLASSIC
Post by: jerry on November 02, 2014, 08:07:45 AM
Wouldn\'t have gone over well? Uh, the favorite was the one who got wiped out. Wanna see some disappointed bettors?
Title: Re: BC CLASSIC
Post by: Dana666 on November 02, 2014, 08:20:21 AM
On the in-house TV show I heard surprisingly honest and candid analysis from Richard Migliore (and someone else whose names escapes me). They were a refreshing change from the usual shills at TVG who never speak a controversial word about racetrack management or corporations in general. Anyway, Migliore was shocked the horse didn\'t come down. He said had this been the 5th race at Aqueduct on a Wednesday, there would have been an immediate DQ.

The perception or reality is that Baffert gets away with stuff and that\'s not fair. Remember the BIG Cap a few years ago? This is very bad for racing and any game that proposes to be on the level.

I appreciate all the intelligent feedback here. I\'m sure Garcia wasn\'t trying to do what he did--he was trying to bust out and get to the rail ASAP, but I don\'t understand in what world anyone can say that didn\'t affect the outcome.

I remember a few years back when I was DQ\'d out of being the lone winner in a pick six at Del Mar. The infraction was my horse, breaking from post ten in a route race, shot out of the gate and cut off several horses on his way to the rail. He won by open lengths never being challenged and was DQ\'d. I never thought he would stay up.

Sounds like you all made a lot of cash, and if so God Bless you. Take the money and run with it. I have nothing bad to say about astute handicapping because When you go to the bank on Monday morning, it only matters that you were right, not why.
Title: Re: BC CLASSIC
Post by: jerry on November 02, 2014, 08:21:17 AM
\"Reasonably expected to finish.\" And these people are judges. Between the drugs, the cheats and the imbeciles at the top, horse racing in America is just too third world. Can\'t play it with serious money anymore. Pity. I used to love this sport.
Title: Re: BC CLASSIC
Post by: miff on November 02, 2014, 08:29:40 AM
"I lost all chance to win the race\"


...wide Mikey on Shared Belief after being blasted by Bayern.
Title: Re: BC CLASSIC
Post by: TreadHead on November 02, 2014, 08:37:00 AM
But if you listened to Roger Stein this morning, you would hear that he told the stewards the exact opposite, and they open admitted it played into their decision.
Title: Re: BC CLASSIC
Post by: Bet Twice on November 02, 2014, 08:50:35 AM
My money was on Cigar street, and had him boxed with SB, CC, and some others.  The stewards decision had no impact on the outcome for me - I was a loser either way.  My point being I believe I am looking at this without a biased interest.

  While I agree that the action of Bayern (by no fault of his jock, which is clear if you watch the replay) hurt the chances of others in this race, I find it hard to believe racing would be better served by having the outcome decided by the stewards - let the outcome be decided on the track, not in the conference room.  It was an unfortunate start, no doubt, but it\'s not like SB and Moreno finished 2,3, where dq\'ing Bayern would \" right the wrong\"...you\'d have ToNY as the winner and SB bumped up to 3rd, Moreno moved up from dead last.
Title: Re: BC CLASSIC
Post by: Wrongly on November 02, 2014, 08:52:30 AM
What planet do you live on?  How many races do you watch?  That was by ever rule an infraction.  It was Baffy!  Only reason the horse didn\'t come down.  I previously thought the Stewarts in Illinois were the worst in racing, yesterday Cali lowered the bar on racing biggest stage.  No wonder the sport in which I love is dying!
Title: Re: BC CLASSIC
Post by: rossi3839 on November 02, 2014, 09:00:54 AM
Bob Baffert was on the Roger Stein show and it was interesting back and forth between Bob and Roger. Bob also said that Mike Smith text him this morning to congratulate him.
Title: Re: BC CLASSIC
Post by: miff on November 02, 2014, 09:25:16 AM
Mike Smith too smart to offend Baffert in any way, wants to get a shot at riding some of those Cadillacs!
Title: Re: BC CLASSIC
Post by: slewzapper on November 02, 2014, 09:59:46 AM
Whether one agrees with the reasoning behind the steward\'s decision or not, yesterday\'s Classic start and first furlong resembled the beginning to the feature race at CD on the first Saturday in May, in just about every year. Don\'t recall much steward intervention in that situation over the years, nor much righteous indignation from handicappers over the lack of same.  

Interestingly, the back view didn\'t look as outrageous as the head on - Bayern had partially cleared SB and came over, Moreno came out a bit and was ahead of SB as well. VE Day walked out. No horse appeared to have lost their action.
Title: Re: BC CLASSIC
Post by: Boscar Obarra on November 02, 2014, 10:10:20 AM
If they changed things, the first time one of your horses got put last after veering in at the start, you\'d wish for the \'good old days\'
Title: Re: BC CLASSIC
Post by: jerry on November 02, 2014, 10:25:10 AM
Disqualification is meant to act as a preventative just as any punishment behind a law. It\'s meant to discourage specific behavior.
Title: Re: BC CLASSIC
Post by: jerry on November 02, 2014, 10:27:46 AM
No horse appeared to have lost their action? You need to watch it again.
Title: Re: BC CLASSIC
Post by: Boscar Obarra on November 02, 2014, 10:35:30 AM
Highly doubtful the jockey did that deliberately, as the other riders would make sure he never walked again if they thought so.

 As for discouraging 1200 lb horses from veering in at the start, good luck to you.
Title: Re: BC CLASSIC
Post by: Bet Twice on November 02, 2014, 10:40:20 AM
Yes, I\'m sure the horse would have learned his lesson had he been disqualified.
Title: Re: BC CLASSIC
Post by: jerry on November 02, 2014, 11:18:34 AM
I have no doubt the initial contact was the horses idea. Even so, while there was no malicious intent, it\'s still a foul. Murder 1 vs. manslaughter. The guys still dead and somebody\'s got to pay.
Title: Re: BC CLASSIC
Post by: jerry on November 02, 2014, 11:21:31 AM
So every time a horse causes interference by lugging in it\'s OK? I don\'t think you\'ll say yes.
Title: Re: BC CLASSIC
Post by: fjmb on November 02, 2014, 02:33:23 PM
C\'mon Wrongly - Horses never come down for interference at the start.
Title: Re: BC CLASSIC
Post by: TMW on November 02, 2014, 02:46:25 PM
fjmb Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> C\'mon Wrongly - Horses never come down for
> interference at the start.

http://espn.go.com/horse-racing/story/_/id/11806565/bayern-disqualified

I don\'t know you and therefore don\'t know if your comment is tongue in cheek but those who for some reason agree with the stewards or the Baffert camp -- you are in the minority opinion. The ESPN link sums up my feelings.

For instance, what if the roles were reversed and Moreno wiped out Bayern? Bayern would have probably lost by double digit lengths too (probably not 40+ though). He probably would have been disqualified as well since the trainer is not local.

With pace pressure Bayern is a common animal. Baffert knows that and he will retire him eventually for exactly the same reason he retired Game On Dude. Neither could pass a horse.
Title: Re: BC CLASSIC
Post by: bellsbendboy on November 02, 2014, 05:44:12 PM
\"Dude\" was retired because BB thought he had the Classic winner in his barn, although calling Bayern a \"common sort\" may indicate a bit of bias on your part.  bbb
Title: Re: BC CLASSIC
Post by: TMW on November 02, 2014, 07:55:02 PM
bellsbendboy Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> \"Dude\" was retired because BB thought he had the
> Classic winner in his barn, although calling
> Bayern a \"common sort\" may indicate a bit of bias
> on your part.  bbb

\"He ran a great race in the Pacific Classic, but it\'s gotten to the point where there is always going to be some horse who is going to be sacrificed by running with him and forcing him into ridiculous fractions, as was the case at Del Mar,\" Baffert said. \"It\'s starting to wear on him a little bit to the point where it\'s not fun for him anymore. We always felt if he couldn\'t compete at the grade I level and wasn\'t enjoying what he was doing, it would be time to retire him.\"
-Bob Baffert on Game On Dude\'s retirement.

This is why he was retired and not because of any other reason. And, Baffert does not own the horses. You are saying a trainer had the authority to retire someone\'s horse (a very successful multiple Grade 1 winner) to accommodate another horse that he trains and does not own? No.

What I said was they are similar because they have never shown any ability to pass another horse. This comment is relevant to the BC race because the only other early pace horse (Moreno) was completely violated and taken out of the race. If Moreno got the early lead I don\'t think Bayern could pass him based on many previous races. That is why Garcia was hell-bent to get the lead at any cost. It is also relevant because that is why Game On Dude was retired (according to Baffert).

Both horses are superbly talented -- but they must have things their own way because they cannot pass other horses -- opinion based only on their race performances and no bias toward Baffert or his horses.
Title: Re: BC CLASSIC
Post by: Rich Curtis on November 03, 2014, 06:50:54 AM
\" If Moreno got the early lead I don\'t think Bayern could pass him based on many previous races.\"

What are the names of these \"many previous races\" that show that Bayern could not have passed Moreno?
Title: Re: BC CLASSIC
Post by: TMW on November 03, 2014, 11:43:11 AM
Rich Curtis Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> \" If Moreno got the early lead I don\'t think
> Bayern could pass him based on many previous
> races.\"
>
> What are the names of these \"many previous races\"
> that show that Bayern could not have passed
> Moreno?

Arkansas Derby -- Race Calls -- 1, 1, 1, 2, 3
Preakness -- 8, 7, 7, 7, 9
Travers -- 1, 1, 3, 10, 10

All other races -- 7 of 10 were virtually wire-to-wire. Twice he briefly dueled for the first race call (2nd by a head) and won but he didn\'t pass a horse and was not running against anything with early speed like Moreno ($1.8 million won including a Grade 1 and multiple other Graded stakes races).

Coincidences do occur in life and maybe it is a coincidence that the same trainer (Baffert) trained a horse that happened to impede with the same horse (Shared Belief) in back-to-back races that were both Grade 1 races at the same track (Santa Anita). I don\'t happen to buy it. My last words on this unfortunate subject.
Title: Re: BC CLASSIC
Post by: Rich Curtis on November 03, 2014, 12:01:19 PM
So you look at wire-to-wire victories as evidence that the horse could not have won from second place? That seems a bit stringent. I look at them only as proof that the horse can win on the lead.

And you think that Preakness debacle, in which he was 8th early, suggests he can\'t win from 2nd?

And those two races in which he was outsprinted by a head to the first call? He won both of them.

Hell, technically, Bayern is undefeated when he is in 2nd place at the first call.

Bayern can\'t pass a horse? I think you are outsprinting your evidence here.
Title: Re: BC CLASSIC
Post by: mjellish on November 03, 2014, 04:32:13 PM
Agree completely TMW.  If the 4 & 7 duel early it probably would have been a different race.  

And IMO they should have taken the 7 down.  I know the start is the start, but in this case it was egregious enough to warrant a DQ.  Especially considering the 6 was the undefeated favorite and not a 50-1 shot (technically this shouldn\'t matter, but it does).  Can\'t believe the connections on the 6, or for that matter the 5 or 4 did not object.  Maybe that would have changed things.  And I find the purely subjective explanation from the stewards that the 7\'s hard Veer-In at the start did not significantly impact the outcome of the race outright insulting.  For full disclosure purposes I did not have a penny on the 6, and the 9 winning would have been good for me especially with the 13 taking 2nd.  Pretty sure it isn\'t clouding my judgment though.  

Can debate it forever.  But what can you do...  

Race over, the money had been paid.

I\'ve seen them taken down for less, and not taken down for worse.
Title: Re: BC CLASSIC
Post by: jerry on November 03, 2014, 04:51:55 PM
Projecting how the race might have been run and what the final result would have been is as foolhardy as the CHRB projecting that the horses involved \"were not cost the opportunity to place where they were reasonably expected to finish\" which is the ultimate boner line of the year. The bottom line is, after waiting all year for a showdown between the best of the best, we\'ll never know. Ruining the race is reason enough to disqualify him.