Bobby Frankel\'s Derby Record:
1990 - Pendleton Ridge - 13th DI 3.O CD .83
1990 - Burnt Hills - 14th
2000 - Aptitude - 2nd
2002 - Medaglia d\'Oro - 4th
2003 - Empire Maker - 2nd
2003 - Peace Rules - 3rd DI 4.5 CD 1.0
http://www.kentuckyderby.com/2003/derby_history/derby_charts/trainers/217.html
Funny how a good horse can\'t be found or trained up for a decade and then they are all good horses.
I don't want to lose out
I want to win
Get things done
I catch the paper boy
The form don't really change
He\'s running with the wind
And I\'ll never wave bye-bye
So, I try...I try
There's no sign of life
It's just the power to charm
I'm lying in the rain
And I\'ll never wave bye-bye
So I try...I try
Never gonna fall for
Modern love - walks beside me
Modern love - runs on by
Modern love - gets me to Churchill on time
Churchill on time - terrifies me
Churchill on time - makes me party
Churchill on time - puts my trust in God and man
God and man - no confessions
God and man - no religion
God and man - You don't believe in modern love?
It's not really work
It's just the power to charm
He\'s still running with the wind
And I\'ll never wave bye bye
And, I try...I try
Modern love, Modern love, Modern love...Modern la aa ove.
CtC,
Frankel has no shot in the Derby.
There was a huge rail bias Saturday at Aque and Master David rode it the entire way.
Silver Charm--
You are correct, there was a huge inside bias that day.
I have 2 schools of thought on this. TAPIT overcame both a severe speed bias and an inside bias by closing wide. Does the effort take out too much starch after having had only one prep race and after being sick. Or, is the effort so overpowering that TAPIT has stamped himself head and shoulders above the rest of the 3yos. At low odds in the Derby, I\'ll bet that TAPIT bounces.
Now you have MASTER DAVID. Off of a 2 month layoff, Frankel had a tough decision to deal with. How much do you crank MD up?? The horse obviously needed graded earnings and his 2nd place finish, while aided by the bias, gets him to Louisville fitter without being squeezed too dry.
Which one would you bet on to move forward off of the Wood???
Good Luck,
Joe B.
I thought Tapit won fur fun...not hit in the last 1/16th at all...
I\'m looking forward to seeing a better replay of the Wood. Tapit was a fraction of a stride from missing the Derby. I\'ll be surprised if the whip didn\'t come out. It was a long stretch grind for him once he reached the leaders and I believe with the early energy savings he should have motored by more easily. I\'m not gonna be at ease with him until the barn comments on that erratic stretch behavior, which is not to say that I\'ll believe what the barn says. Caveat, I haven\'t analyzed the race yet it may be the competition was that good coming home.
I did not detect a rail bias. I thought the one turn races were quick and naturally the quick horses found themselves on the rail. I\'ll review the charts for the last few days there, but if there was a rail bias it escaped me. If there was it certainly didn\'t help Value Plus or Sinister G.
Regarding the Wood time and fractions, there were only a couple two turn races Wood day and one was a distance rarely run. The quickish times of the one turn races can\'t be compared to races over a part of the track that the others didn\'t encounter. Its a ticklish day in that regard. Making speed figures for two turns on days like Wood Memorial day is one of the most perilous aspects to figure making. Its hard to say with certainty how fast or slow that race was.
Generally, a 1:49 in New York is better than a 1:49 at Santa Anita or Keeneland and not as good as a 1:49 at Oaklawn.
I might as well come out of the closet. I like rooms full of beautiful naked woman. I\'m talking about the Smarty Jones Closet. He\'s gonna be low odds and nothing I say is gonna drive them down further because there are issues to overcome. Pedigree being one. But he\'s been my favorite for a long time, though I had the itchy feeling about Eurosilver and now I don\'t have to worry about that. My main concern with Smarty is cumulative big efforts and I thought he looked a little tired after the Ark Derby. Borregos inroads the last sixteenth are not what I\'m referring to. The other problem is rating. I\'d like to see him rate in 3rd or 4th, but he seems intent to want to rate just off the leader. My instructions would probably be to rate just off of Pollards Vision who I think is also a much better horse than people realize. If Smarty can overcome the big efforts and rate a little further back behind Lionheart, Sinister G. and Pollards Vision. (Hes shown no inclination to do it yet) I think he\'s the easiest kind of winner. I\'ll be comfortable with a 47 and change half at Churchill and I don\'t think they\'ll get down significantly faster than that. I think Smarty is going to win the Derby and I don\'t think its gonna be close. I have to figure the T number for the Ark is tops for the 9 mark preps with Pollard\'s race 2nd. (Since reconsidered after analyzing the Bluegrass card)
CtC
Post Edited (04-13-04 00:11)
One thing is for sure, Tapit was not CRANKED for the Wood, because Dickinson doesn\'t operate that way. This does not bode well for the other contenders. HP
LOW-ODDS, what do you mean by low odds?? I think he will be around 7 or 8-1, I think Tapit will be around those odds also, if he runs in the derby.
We all know Dickinson\'s record winning with odd training patterns. However, Tapit is just TOO SLOW. A 4 top going into the Wood, he probably paired that at best considering he was 1w on the first turn. He beat Master David who had a 6 top, Swingforthefences with a 4 top, and Value Plus who completed a nice Pletchered 0 - 2 - X. If Tapit is in the Arky Derby or Blue Grass he\'s a minimum five lengths behind.
One can only pray he\'s the favorite on Derby Day. A slowish horse who may not have broken through is 2 yo top and will be trying to weave through a 20 horse field from the back of the pack.
I think you are wrong on Tapit\'s number. I think master david had a 2 top. he rode the rail and assuming he paired it up or did a little worse, tapit was 6 wide on the far turn and lost lots of ground. i would shocked if tapit didnt run a new top. I suspect a 2 1/2 or so and he looks like he could pair or move forward in derby. as for odds, he\'ll be at least 10-1. we\'ll know on the number soon right Jerry?
Tapit was wide on the second turn. I think his Wood number will be competitive, and no way will it be \"five lengths\" behind the Blue Grass and Ark. Derby winners.
I\'m pretty sure I\'ll be betting against Smarty Jones. He was second on my \"loser\'s list\" behind Read the Footnotes. Master David ran a 2-3/4 as a 2yo. I thought Swingforthefences was poised for a big race, so what do I know? HP
Someone said it here and I forget who, but they said: \"pedigree just isn\'t as important anymore with the nutrition, training and \"enhancment\" advances.\" I think thats very true. Pedigree is still a factor but its relative.
Smarty\'s first number was a 5. Whoa! Then he fired off the easiest kind of Zed. Whatdidyasay? Then another Zed his first 3 year old race. Then he got his rest and his return was you guessed it another Zed. Holycowoli! Then a three point move or so forward to a -3.3 I\'m guessing the Ark was a negative, not a 3.3 but a negative nevertheless. I don\'t see anything about that pattern that shows it took Smarty apart. He\'s always been fast he\'s improved every step of the way, with the possible exception of the last, a race over a \"muddy\" surface from a far outside post. He\'s improved a total of 8-9 points, winning five races in \"stakes\" company.
I think that improvement is reasonable and the scary thing is he may even have faster in him...lol
Let\'s see if he comes unglued and doesn\'t make the race.
Obviously, if you like Smarty, you have to like Borrego and he rates a significant challenger with me. But you have to remember Smarty has been spotting these horses weight. His next race is the first one in a while where he goes in on equal footing. But then, I think RTF has a shot too.
lol
CtC
why can\'t they give TCE or smarty a \"0\", and tapit a \"2.5\"? i have no idea really, but it would seem within the realm of possibility.
HP wrote,
\"I thought Swingforthefences was poised for a big race, so what do I know?
More than you think I just finished watching the replay of the Wood and this was clearly the KEY RACE of the spring.
TCE is the only thing coming out of the Blue Grass and the trip will probably kill him Derby Day. Smarty Jones has Demons Begone written all over him.
The thing with Tapit is he will probably be brought in to CD about Thursday night before Derby Day and have maybe two half mile breezes in his from at something like 53 4/5. The bigger the mystery the more Dickinson will be eating it up.
I\'ve forgotten, did Demone\'s Begone bleed through lasix or was it his first episode with bleeding?
If you\'re predicting a bleed for Smarty, how dare you?...lol If you think he\'s gonna be stressed by Lionheart, he may, but Lionheart will have to run with a lot more than he\'s already shown.
I\'m predicting the Lukas horses to finish so far out of the picture they don\'t even make the race charts.
:)
CtC
swing is by boston harbor, who is getting a bunch of short winded horses. he ran a decent 9f over a speedball track at GP, then pulled a minor fade job going 8 1/2f at Tam. the horse figured to give it up in the stretch in the wood, and did. his wood # is not going to be good.
TGJB,
Please put all the Derby Horses Sheets up tomorrow as the Race of the Week before a big argument breaks out.
silver,
i don\'t think you are going to like what you see if he does that.
This from an article by Jay Privman on DRF.com.
The Cliff\'s Edge got the weekend\'s best Beyer Speed Figure, a 111.
Smarty Jones earned a Beyer Speed Figure of 107.
Tapit got a 98 Beyer Figure for his victory in the Wood Memorial.
Tapit was extremely wide and ran against a brutal bias.
Let me update this last sentence is my thoughts not Mr. Privmans. Even though I\'m sure he agrees with me.
Post Edited (04-12-04 22:15)
Swingforthefences is a Boston Harbor and his fade in the last sixteenth tends to elevate the performance of some of the others to my mind. He\'d run a good 9 marks at Hallandale and it appeared he got tired at the end of the Wood, so the track, at least at two turns, may not have been as speed sustaining as everyone thinks. Silver called the Wood a \"Key Race\" and its very possible the efforts of Master David, Tapit and Eddington were better than the one turn races suggest. If it is key only the efforts of Master David and Tapit would appear to be significant, because Eddington, like SFTF, will in all likelihood be watching the next one.
If you\'re looking at comparisions SFTF, Mustanfar and Limehouse finished under a blanket in the Tampa Bay Derby and while SFTF was right there at the end of the Wood, Mustanfar and Limehouse fell significantly short of TCE and Lionheart. These things are relative due to a host of factors, but considering them isn\'t wasted time. I think its probable that SFTF ran a nice race, at least better than Mustanfar and Limehouse. Its also possible that TCE and Lionheart are better 9 mark horses right now than Tapit or Master David. Lets see what the figures say.
I made this post without seeing Silvers Beyer Numbers post...very interesting. Yes everyone would like to know the \"Gold Standard\" figure for those races. Regardless, TGJB has to be pleased TCE seems to be coming to hand. Another factor thats in his favor is he is nimble horse. He\'s gonna be able to do things in a large field a big plodder can\'t.
Bit Player turned me on to the Bris numbers
Beyer, Bris
TCE: 111,115
Smarty Jones: 107,105
Tapit: 98, 98
I\'ll obviously have to look more closely at the charts. My suspicion is they got TCE and Lionheart a little high and Tapit a little low. I don\'t think Aqueduct was speed favoring at two turns, but I don\'t think it was near as fast a track at two turns either.
If the numbers are accurate my backing of Smarty may have been premature...I won\'t be held to it...lol
Toscano is apparently pulling Sinister G. from the Derby picture. Proabably a careful move on the basis of the last race. He is a bit better than that though.http://www.drf.com/tc/trail/2004/news.html
CtC
Post Edited (04-12-04 23:07)
Nice work.
We will know more tomorrow when TGJB puts all the numbers up.
Tapit, Smarty Jones, and The Cliffs Edge seem to be all the talk. And they should seeing as they were victorious this weekend. But IMO The winner of this years Kentucky Derby finished second in his final derby prep. I haven\'t decide on which one, but I offer up these three choices:
1) Lion Heart. I know...I know... the breeding, his style is not conducive to winning the derby and he was ran down at a flat mile and a 1 1/8. But here are the goods; He\'s awfully fast and to borrow some notes from CtC regarding Smarty, \"first number was a 5. Whoa! Then he fired off the easiest kind of Zed. Whatdidyasay? Then another Zed his first 3 year old race. (thanks CtC)\" and I\'m just guessing, but I think he paired up that last(0.5) with 3 wks to the big day. The way it looks the race maybe setting up nicely. If Smith doesn\'t but another sub 23 quarter in him, he figures to open up on the suspect front runners, and with Smarty coming in with a 0-2-X pattern(i\'m guessing) and everyone else weaving through horses...
2) Borrego. Talk about a derby profile, this guy fits it! And if he paired his last or had a small new top like I think, he figures to be sitting in the cat birds seat turning for home. Awfully dangerous!
3) Imperialism. Okay, he was Dq\'d into second, who\'s keeping track. I\'m not sure this guy would have gotten up if he wasn\'t cut off, but I like his little guy. He has a good foundation, has shown steady improvement, and I think he\'s just getting good. Hoping that last was another 2 (with trouble) setting him up for another stepforward on 4 weeks.
Just think, we still have another 2.5 weeks to change our mind. lol
I\'m glad others got the better Beyers. What are the odds of a Dickinson-trained horse going BACKWARDS in this situation, where he has an apparently healthy horse to train up to the race? No way this horse will be 10-1 on Derby day either.
It will be hard to figure TCEdge\'s chances before the draw. Liking the track is a plus, and may be a bigger factor than anything you may have against Shane Sellers.
Frankel apparently has someone who can help him in Kentucky.
Out of the longer priced horses I\'ve seen sheets for, I don\'t think Pro Prado hurt his chances this past weekend. We\'ll see if he gets in. Kimmel training Friends Lake up to the race is interesting too.
Quite a few longshots will be fast enough to make the tri this year. I can\'t wait to hear from the annual \"this crop is no good\" guys. Probably half of the field will be able to hit a 1 or a 2.
Should be a nice few weeks for nerds who look at bulletin boards, and pedigrees, etc... HP
ronwar--
All valid points, however I don\'t agree on IMPERIALISM. His late kick will be severely compromised at @ 1 1/4m.
BORREGO--I need to see TGJB\'s Arkansas Derby numbers. This one is certainly a major contender and Espinoza committed yesterday. Very versatile. Can sit close and still finish, or sit back and uncork a nice turn move. Finished second in 3 impressive prep races.
LION HEART-- Let\'s put it this way; anyone who tries to get even this close to him during the first mile will be looking for the barn. He punishes all pace horses that try to get near him. Can stagger home and get lucky enough to hold the show spot.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
I got my wish....almost! Smarty won, not by 10, but he won and made himself the DD fav; Zito wins the Derby w/Cliff, and unless there is a verrry fast pace, the deep closers are doomed!(Tapit and Imperialism)
Smarty was dead a 1/16th from the wire and switched back to his left lead. It\'s a shame to kill him in Ky.but 5 mil is on the line.
This race should be a stalkers\' dream!
My superfecta ticket:
Cliff keyed over David, Eddington, Borrego, Pro Prado and Tapit.
Smarty came home in an extrapolated 25:08, which was faster than Tapit. The track was muddy. He carried 2 less lengths than Borrego and the half mile mark has quick for that length race at Oaklawn. He may have gotten tired near the end. Regarding Tapits closing fraction, I have not believed the track was as kind to the horses at two turns as it was at one. That said the stretch at Aqueduct was obviously a good part of the track and its my belief that Tapits closing fraction was aided there. I make it slower than it appears vis a vie the other 9 mark races.
If you\'re looking for a nice final fraction. TCE and Lionheart both threw one and its the fact that makes me most prone to say they ran a big race in the Bluegrass.
CtC
Post Edited (04-13-04 13:34)
So if Smarty Jones went in 25 for the last quarter and 12 and 2 for the last eighth, that would mean his final eighth was faster than his penultimate one. Regardless of switching leads, looking tired, etc., the raw time says he wasn\'t slowing down. I have no idea whether he will \"bounce\" or not in the Kentucky Derby, but considering he has had the least grueling preparation, a nice progression distance-wise, and hasn\'t really bounced yet in his career, I am more than ready to take all gifts other bettors will give me on Derby Day. I have no idea whether he can get a mile and a quarter after being right up there with a grueling pace, but I am very willing to bet at anything above 3-1 odds that he will. The way his people are talking, this horse knows he\'s an alpha, and confidence has a lot to do with winning. I wish they would send him straight to Churchill, but I know that Keeneland is just about horse heaven, as far as grazing and open space go. I just don\'t like the training track there very much.
I know this is a little simplistic for many of the players here, but if you look at the actual 3/4 times of each winner on Saturday and add it to their final time, you get the following: ( in seconds )
Smarty Jones : 71 3/5 + 109 2/5 = 181
The Cliff : 72 2/5 + 109 2/5 = 181 4/5
Tapit : 72 1/5 + 109 3/5 = 181 4/5 *
Borego : 72 1/5 + 109 4/5 = 182
Lion Heart : 71 + 109 3/5 = 180 3/5
Eddington : 71 4/5 + 109 4/5 = 181 3/5 *
Again, no trip or variants taken into account.
All three races were reasonbly similiar in 1/2, 3/4, and final time.
The Ark
22.64, 46.95, 1:11.71, 1:36.87, 1:49.41
Smarty on the fractions
2f-2nd by .5 -22.74
4f-2nd by .5 -47.05-24.31
6f-1st------1.11.71-24.66
8f-1st------1.36.86-25.15
9f-1st------1.49.41-12.55-25.10
I think you have to ask yourself was he being asked at the end and you have to remember what he overcame. He had to blitz the first fraction and he did and then he was the typical energy allocation machine he\'s been.
CtC
I think SMARTY JONES is a terrific 3 yo. I also think that Oaklawn Park is one of the most speed biased tracks in the country.
Besides, does anyone think that SJ is going to have an easy time passing LION HEART on the far turn. This is not PURGE we are talking about here. Stalkers who pounce like SJ always look great doing it versus allowance horse frontrunners.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
Smarty had an unreal figure going in to the Ark Derby. That coupled with the aforementioned lead change in my opinion makes this horse very vulnerable on Derby Day.
Joe B:
Ditto on your comments; Smarty will be there at the far turn, and IF Lion runs his race, a wall of horses will swallow them at the 1/8th pole. I expect Lion to stay on until a 1/16th out, then Cliff and co. will run him down. I figure Lion to finish ahead of Smarty. Footnotes will be on the pace also, but I think he went over the top in Fla. Don\'t know what to do with Friends Lake...
I just don\'t see Lion caving in like most think. And if the jockeys take this same stance on waiting for him to come back(War Emblem), after two decent preps he could be long gone. Notice when they galloped out passed the wire, I\'m trying to figure out how did Lion get back in front of TCE by a length and a half.
ronwar--
Another good point. But LION HEART is going to have to relax more to get the 1 1/4.
It\'s funny...let\'s say the usual KEENLAND bias existed last Saturday. LH draws off by 5 and becomes the instant favorite at 3-1.
Now he\'ll be something closer to 13-1. This game is all about value.
Side note to all TCE fans jumping on that bandwagon. I hope all of you had him in the Blue Grass...if not, you know the ol\' saying---\"If you didn\'t go to the wedding, don\'t bother going to the wake.\"
Good Luck,
Joe B.
Joe B:
I just don\'t think he went over the top...He was an under-the-radar screen 2YO, and I put stock in horses than run well over CD...he\'s proven his talent, and we may be looking at another Thunder Gulch.