Ask the Experts

General Category => Ask the Experts => Topic started by: richiebee on September 05, 2014, 03:35:59 AM

Title: Kentucky Downs
Post by: richiebee on September 05, 2014, 03:35:59 AM
American thoroughbred racing\'s answer to NASCAR road racing opens on Saturday with
an all turf card with full fields which looks a little more intriguing than NYRA\'s
drab offerings on Friday and Saturday.

Medal Count, popular among some T-generates during the Spring, is favored in the
feature, the first running of the $250,000 Dueling Grounds Derby at 1-5/16 miles.
Title: Re: Kentucky Downs
Post by: jp702006 on September 05, 2014, 05:33:20 AM
I was a big fan of Medal Count on the triple crown trail. I was really looking forward to him getting on the turf. However, I was hoping to get something other than being the morning line favorite.
Title: Re: Kentucky Downs
Post by: Tavasco on September 06, 2014, 12:29:31 AM
Odds shown are my best bleary eyed effort to note Morning Line. Best Bet The 1st don\'t miss it.

Race - 1
#1 Imer 30/1

Race - 2
#5 Ride Me High 9/2

Race -3
#12 Bundestag 8/1 and
#4 Bernies Best 6/1

Race - 5
#4 More Than Less 3/1 over #9 Tempers Flair 9/2 and #13 Tap Twenty One 6/1 exactas and/or Tri

Race - 6
#5 Selz 8/1

Race - 7
#9 Czar 10/1

Race - 8
#7 My Little Miss 15/1 & #11 Nicky\'s Brown Miss 8/1 EBX (Kaboom!)

Race - 9
#2 Can\'t Help Believing 9/2

Race - 10
#12 WildLife Artist 10/1

Virginia Tech +11 vs Ohio State
Title: Re: Kentucky Downs
Post by: richiebee on September 06, 2014, 05:46:34 AM
Tavasco Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Odds shown are my best bleary eyed effort to note
> Morning Line. Best Bet The 1st don\'t miss it.
>

>
> Race - 7
> #9 Czar 10/1
>

The ML favorite is a Ramsey/Ward/ Kittens production who wired a maiden field at AP under Dettori on Arlington Million day, hanging up a TG #  which arguably only makes her 3rd or 4th fastest here. Ridden by top Fairmount Park rider Rafael Hernandez who has very little turf experience. Likely second favorite Reality comes out off 2 decent Spa tries. The slowest filly in the race, Bagpipes, comes out of an easy win at Mountaineer and has a turf friendly bloodline. I\'ll be looking at a dose of Reality in the P4.

> Race - 8
> #7 My Little Miss 15/1 & #11 Nicky\'s Brown Miss
> 8/1 EBX (Kaboom!)

Sounds like a cant miss exacta but need to point out the name of the 7 is My Little Annas. Another 7 panel turf sprint, another Wesley Ward (31% strike rate at KD) ML fave ridden by Hernandez. Fastest colt in the race on the TGs is the above mentioned Nickys Brown Miss who goes out for a trainer who is 0/26 on the year. Will be gulping the Kool Aid here.
>
> Race - 9
> #2 Can\'t Help Believing 9/2

1-5/16 on the turf here and brand name Medal Count is likely favored off one lifetime turf start, a January allowance win at GP. Global View is arguably faster and has faced the top 3yo turf runners in the U.S. Proud Azreca is slower thantop contenders but goes out for the productive Maker/ Torres combo and breaks from the rail in a race which starts near the hairpin first turn



> Race - 10
> #12 WildLife Artist 10/1

Wall Street Kitten (5/1) and Span (6/1) should be attending the pace in the 12 panel finale and both have the
bloodline to handle the distance.
Title: Re: Kentucky Downs
Post by: Rick B. on September 06, 2014, 06:31:20 AM
Tavasco Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Best Bet The 1st don\'t miss it.

Thank you.

Good to see more horseplayers identify their Best
Bet as a live shot at a price instead of some
boring-assed 2/5 shot that is simply the Most Likely
Winner.
Title: Re: Kentucky Downs
Post by: richiebee on September 06, 2014, 07:16:01 AM
Rick:

Not criticizing Tavasco\'s pick, and onlrqy being slightly facetious, but how often can you bet a runner who moved forward 27 TG points in her last start...
Title: Re: Kentucky Downs
Post by: Boscar Obarra on September 06, 2014, 03:26:48 PM
That\'s what I call rubbing it in. In the 8th the #8 with the Leper, falls at the start, but the in running numbers are stuck with the 8 on the lead until the wire.

 The winner , the 11, as noted here, from an 0-fer trainer, this was his first win according the the announcer. Prob wont be his last.
Title: Re: Kentucky Downs
Post by: Tavasco on September 06, 2014, 03:27:48 PM
Now trainer is 1 for 27 and gets me out just when I thought I might not have a winner today.

The failure of #7 ruined my KD exacta and the LaD stewards ruined my other 7 with 2 exacta when they took him down for bearing out a mere five paths.
Title: Re: Kentucky Downs
Post by: Rick B. on September 07, 2014, 06:35:46 AM
Tavasco Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Now trainer is 1 for 27 and gets me out just when
> I thought I might not have a winner today.

I hope you parlayed the winnings from the 10th race
to your nifty selection of Virginia Tech over Ohio
State.

Points? Don\'t need no stinkin\' points. Wow.