Hello. I am a long time Thorograph user and first time poster. I found it very interesting today that Shared Belief went off at such low odds. I compared this years pools to last years race:
WPS:
2013: $1,185,082
2014: $1,508,601
Exacta:
2013: $607,767
2014: $586,179
Quinella:
2013: $25,668
2014: $22,235
Trifecta:
2013: $425,610
2014: $459,691
Daily Double:
2013: $64,767
2014: $150,858
It is coincidental that the win payoff and daily double payoffs were so low with both pools being abnormally high with action?
Thanks in advance and good luck to all!
Here is my simple take.
A great many were certain that last years BC Mile winner Goldencents would win and wanted to better the 7/5 win price. They got 5/1 on the double.
Another large block understand Jerry Hollendorfer is a phenomena, as is his horse the 2 y/o of last year, now add in Mike Smith having a very good day. They are celebrities, on a day the crowd was full of well healed swells wanting to get out for the day. Press the bet!
After all isn\'t handicapping really psychology?
Interesting observation. The double pool was \'double\' the norm (field size in parentheses). The payout was just what should be expected based on the win odds, but as you say, the win pool was also inflated. Doubt it was coincidence. Also unlikely that the \'public\' was in on the action.
Daily Double:
2009: $78k (12)
2010: $68k (10)
2011: $69k (9)
2012: $68k (10)
2013: $65k (12)
2014: $151k (10)