It\'s Travers Day!!!
The gates open in about an hour and the stampede for picnic tables, benches and lucky real estate will begin. The weather broke much later than the experts said it would but there should be a good turf course and fast track for a great day. 14 races starting at 11:35 and the seminar at 9:15; it will be a long day.
The Ballston Spa:
Nellie Cashman is a little bit slower than the fast ones, has the rail, a nice forward moving pattern and is a must use at north of 20/1. Dayatthespa could get very very loose on the lead and along with Filimbi they are the 2 fastest in the heat.
The Kings Bishop:
Wildcat Red & Coup de Grace are the fastest, Noble Cornestone as a saver at the price. Coup de Grace will get a major press in the sequence.
The Ballerina:
Angel Serpa for me AGAIN? Maybe!!! Geeky Gorgeous is 20/1 ML and the fastest horse in the race, I\'d be surprised at anything near the ML price, I like Willet almost as much, Voodoo Tales and Better Lucky will be used as well. A press on the Geek and Willet. My Miss Aurelia has seen better days and La Verdad is sitting on her X after 0-2.
The Travers:
All week long I simply was going to single Tonalist, he was short in the Jim Dandy and in a head to head I had and have no doubt that he would turn the tables on Wicked Strong. Clement has pointed here as much as he had for the Belmont and he has made some snide comments to say the least. This could very well be the top 3 yr old by seasons end, I loved this horse in Florida over the winter, knew he was pointed for the Belmont after recovering and got duped by the \"bad hoof\" and some negative workout comments.
However:
Bayern whom I bet in the Preakness, bet against in the Woody may just very well be a total freak? He has outrun both sides of his pedigree by leaps and bounds and NO ONE in this race can go with him early. I\'m not convinced he will want a 1 1/4, his Haskell looks much better than it actually was, he should bounce but I have to use him on a bit more than a token saver ticket. I\'m thinking 25/75 between he and Tonalist.
Good luck,
Frank D.
I see the same thing in the Ballerina & I\'m sure a lot of others have looked at the sheet, see 20/1 ML and can\'t wait to send it in on that race. The good news is that most of the large crowd betting today, both on & off track, won\'t ever see the sheets on that race. So, we might not get anything near 20/1 on the win, but if we can hit the exotics they may pay great. First thing though is Geeky will have to beat Willet, but if they run 1-2 in either order the payoff should be pretty good.
Will be leaning heavily on William Ichabod Mott, who has been on a good stakes roll recently, enhancing his 20% strike rate in graded stakes.
Ballston Spa: Filimbi is arguably fastest here, would love a turf course which is somethinother than firm.Can bounce here and win. Likely single for me. Note that Frank\'s bomb, Nellie Cashman, won the Lake Placid gat the Spa last year, was DQ\'d.
Kings Bishop: Wildcat Red not fastest here but most consistent. Cuts back in bly slower than thezedistance. Coupe de Grace was outstanding in his big fig Amsterdam win and the outside post works well for his running style. I will throw in Fast Anna, more off the very strong Spa breezes than the 2 easy GP wins. The dam of Fast Anna is Dreaming of Anna, who won the BC Juvie Fillies, kicking off a big day for NC Tony. Will be tossing buzz horse The Big Beast, thinking he is a Big Bounce candidate off the big forward move in his last.
Ballerina: Projecting a hot pace involving Artemis, La Verdad and the rapidly improving VoodooTales. Will use Willet, who consistently hangs up a TG # fast enough to win this, Better Lucky, and Hot Stones, who ks argua
FrankD. Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> It\'s Travers Day!!!
>
> The gates open in about an hour and the stampede
> for picnic tables, benches and lucky real estate
> will begin. The weather broke much later than the
> experts said it would but there should be a good
> turf course and fast track for a great day. 14
> races starting at 11:35 and the seminar at 9:15;
> it will be a long day.
>
> The Ballston Spa:
> Nellie Cashman is a little bit slower than the
> fast ones, has the rail, a nice forward moving
> pattern and is a must use at north of 20/1.
> Dayatthespa could get very very loose on the lead
> and along with Filimbi they are the 2 fastest in
> the heat.
>
> The Kings Bishop:
> Wildcat Red & Coup de Grace are the fastest, Noble
> Cornestone as a saver at the price. Coup de Grace
> will get a major press in the sequence.
>
> The Ballerina:
> Angel Serpa for me AGAIN? Maybe!!! Geeky Gorgeous
> is 20/1 ML and the fastest horse in the race, I\'d
> be surprised at anything near the ML price, I like
> Willet almost as much, Voodoo Tales and Better
> Lucky will be used as well. A press on the Geek
> and Willet. My Miss Aurelia has seen better days
> and La Verdad is sitting on her X after 0-2.
>
> The Travers:
> All week long I simply was going to single
> Tonalist, he was short in the Jim Dandy and in a
> head to head I had and have no doubt that he would
> turn the tables on Wicked Strong. Clement has
> pointed here as much as he had for the Belmont and
> he has made some snide comments to say the least.
> This could very well be the top 3 yr old by
> seasons end, I loved this horse in Florida over
> the winter, knew he was pointed for the Belmont
> after recovering and got duped by the \"bad hoof\"
> and some negative workout comments.
>
> However:
> Bayern whom I bet in the Preakness, bet against in
> the Woody may just very well be a total freak? He
> has outrun both sides of his pedigree by leaps and
> bounds and NO ONE in this race can go with him
> early. I\'m not convinced he will want a 1 1/4,
> his Haskell looks much better than it actually
> was, he should bounce but I have to use him on a
> bit more than a token saver ticket. I\'m thinking
> 25/75 between he and Tonalist.
>
> Good luck,
>
> Frank D.
Dayatthespa\'s going Sunday, Frank . ..
FrankD. Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> The Ballston Spa:
> Nellie Cashman is a little bit slower than the
> fast ones, has the rail, a nice forward moving
> pattern and is a must use at north of 20/1.
> Dayatthespa could get very very loose on the lead
> and along with Filimbi they are the 2 fastest in
> the heat.
Thanks for the detailed analysis Frank, esp. with the
Ballston Spa -- anything that gets me away from the
Motion sucker horse, Strathaven, is a good thing.
Knock \'em dead today buddy!
With you on the Geeky one, but consider Artemis Agrotera who just went through her 2YO top.
Here is my ticket: 7/2,3,4,6,7,8/5,6,8,9/2,4,6,8. Good luck to all!
Gotta shake your head when your single runs dead last. Let\'s see if I can get out with the late pick 4:)
Wide open betting in the Travers , as expected, based on the 11th-12th race DD\'s. 2/6/7 all 5/2 with some support for the 10 at 7-1.