I\'ve just learned T-Graph made Smarty Jone\'s Rebel a -3.3
I knew it was fast and I knew he carried weight in doing it. I had no idea it scored that quick. This is a tough one. If you toss him on the figure you have to discount the apparent ease in which it was earned. It was speed rationed throughout the race. Each quarter went in 24 seconds, including the last. I invite the handicappers here to watch the replay at this site and chime in as to the nature of Smarty\'s stride at the end of the race. I\'d ask your imput on his head movement as well especially as it pertains to before he challenged Purge and through the stretch and post wire:
http://www.kentuckyderby.com/2004/
He pulled away from Pro Prado in the stretch. The off pace horse lost ground to Smarty and Purge at a time where you\'d think he\'d make some up. Smarty just cruised away. To a certain extent however, they ran around the track 1-2-3.
Five pounds on weight means approx. Two lengths. Smarty went about a path wider and that probably was another length. He won by 3.25 so you add it up and you have about 6.25 lengths difference between Smarty and Purge for the race or roughly 3 T-Graph points.
Here are the raw times of the last four races, respectively a 3yr NW1X, 4up OC75K, 3yr 200k and 3 yr MSW
23.37, 46.71, 1:11.70, 1:25.35, 1:38.57
22.94, 46.01, 1:11.01, 1:24.36, 1:37.62
23.45, 47.65, 1:12.10, 1:36.06, 1:42.07
21.92, 45.40, 57.90, 1:10.52
The OC75K race were hard knocking horses. As I said before the most interesting thing to me about the Rebel was the phenomenal rationing of speed. I\'ve rarely seen anything like it.
Blinkers off for Purge. Everyone expected Hasslefree to set the pace in the Lanes End. It could happen in the Arkansas Derby. A replay of the Lanes End tends to indicate the Jockey was pushing him for the front then the hole closed and he was forced into a rating game. (You miss the break on a speed horse and your done) I don\'t know what Pletcher is doing. Purge didn\'t lose that race because he never saw Smarty thats for sure. Maybe thats Pletcher\'s thought. Purge\'s ears were perked up until the time Smarty got right on his flank and he laid em back cause he heard or saw him. Purge ran well, but he had no way to fight back in that stretch. Purge has seen horses in front of him before and gone after them. Maybe thats gonna be the Ark. Derby strategy. If Purge is the most underrated horse in the nation, JR Velasquez/Pletcher seems to think Value Plus was the better horse to ride. Value is in. Purge needs to finish 2nd or better.
The question is do you play Smarty for the bounce here? It was essentially a four point move. If he\'s gonna bounce, this is the place, isn\'t it? Come on TGJB you said this was the fastest 3 yr old number on record...and in March? Call the bounce...lol
Assault – Other than figures, he has to be judged on Suave. He was second best to Suave last and Suave was handled pretty well in the Illinois Derby, after being subtly pinched back. (Caveat the charts don't confirm that) Suave ran well, but didn\'t appear to improve significantly off his prior. He's one that will have to finish 2nd or better to qualify for the Derby. The trip may tell
Tapit – Probably a good post. He's gonna get some support on second race off the layoff. He\'s probably gonna go off 5 or 6-1. He certainly needed the last race. By pace reckoning, he ran a harder pace race than the soft Maryland juvenile competition required him to run and that could be the reason he couldn't sustain late. (Its always amazing that the lung congestion problems are never determined pre race) He's another that needs money to get in. Do his recent works hint at signs of life?
Consecrate – Probably already in on earnings. His figures are padded by the wides. Good Post, today he may not have to run near as wide. Baffert certainly isn't shy about throwing him back into the battles, sometimes geldings respond to running often and he is a better horse this year than last so he is developing. Has tactical speed, probably a question of the ability to finish.
Swingforthefences – another that needs 2nd or better. 1st in stakes company on the pace over a tough track wasn't bad. Granted the only two "stakes" horses beat him. Being that close to the pace probably hurt him last. He's another that has shown ability and needs to move forward. He has a good hole and he'll show more here. Its a question of the competition.
Master David – All you can say is Bailey is on Eddington, but this is Bobby Frankel in New York. Proceed at your own risk. This horse did show himself to be tough and game with Kalifornia's best. Bobby wanted to take the Florida Derby, Wood route. This horse has run well on the Main and needs the money.
Value Plus – Working well, lots of tactical speed. Hard to believe that Pletcher is gonna let another horse slip away and then go after him to fade late from the effort. He probably goes this time, barring a gate mishap. Doesn't appear to be much doubt about that. An argument could also be made that he bounced last and almost won doing so. With him it may also be an issue of the stress of the early pace and the ability to finish.
Little Matth Man – This is a horse I'm personally fond of. (Cheap sire, Cheap sales price) Though I realize he's a tad slower and his pace style is one that doesn't come out on top for horses very often. He's caught a tougher field than he faced last, but he's honest and he tries every time and a real hot pace could help him. An off track moves him up.
Eddington – Had significant trouble out of the gate last (OP minus? Less than 2 lengths? What do you think?) and he ran into some good horses that were probably better suited to the mile. Bailey up and you have to figure he could have ridden Master David if he chose to. There was jockey swap between Prado and Bailey on Birdstone and Eddington. My hunch is Bailey gave up Birdstone and Prado lost the mount on Eddington and then lost the mount on Birdstone for the Bluegrass when the Bird came up with a high white blood cell. None of which means much of anything, but in races this close factoring jockey choices is not a bad idea...lol The Gotham indicates Eddington has some speed and he ran close to the hot fractions after the lst 1/8th mile or so, but he certainly wasn't chewing away at Saratoga County either. He appeared to be on the wrong lead the whole stretch. The time before that he bore in from the lead change and was called "green". It didn\'t appear he was green. It looked like he just didn\'t change leads deftly. If he doesn't change leads correctly here all that Unbridled and Chief's Crown breeding may not matter to him. He met good horses Gotham day and didn't dominate them. He has the favorite, dang near odds on. Today, he HAS to make money and he's got a quick turn to deal with. He certainly could do it, but he could also go South on that Gotham, which might have been more demanding than it appears. My mantra is "Retire J.D. Bailey and make the game safer for all jockeys". You can bet that strategy will be implemented in the Wood. Even if it loses, it pays.
Sinister G. – I am convinced Turfway had an anti rail bias all of Lane's End Week. Lane's end day it wasn't as severe or the horses were of such quality that some were able to partially run through the bias, though it appeared to affect all that ran on the rail. Additionally, the track was sealed prior to the Lanes End and that may have further vitiated the bias, though that can\'t be said with certainty. Both Birdstone and Silver Minister spent a good portion of time on that rail and of course they were nowhere to be found at the end. Sinister G. was the only horse I saw all week that came anywhere close to running that rail and in the fashion he did. Which means what? Well, it probably means his figure is better than it appears. So what does that mean? Well, that's the question isn't it? If he returns to it he still has to negotiate that first turn and all those horses inside of him: Tapit, Consecrate, Swingforthefences, Master David, Value Plus and Eddington. If the effort is as big as it appears, he could very well bounce. Though he\'s worked well and its not a RTF FOY effort. He's carried the weight and looks like a different horse with the lasix. Song of the Sword\'s Illinois Derby does not reflect poorly on him.
Horns Hope – This horse can finish, but he's gonna find he's nowhere near the pace in this race. Its hard to say how that will impact him. If he can handle the weight and class jump he could rally up for some. Its tough to get optimistic about that.
Cuba – This horse has more pace ability. Whether its enough or he can show it from his post is debatable. The outside posts for these two may prove problematic in regard to everything else they are taking on.
CtC
Post Edited (04-09-04 22:17)
CTC -
A couple of comments on your post:
Consecrate - I think he needs earnings to make the Derby. He\'s 25th on the graded earnings list posted on kentuckyderby.com, with $98,000 (the Winstar was ungraded). Although some likely nonstarters are ahead of him, others currently behind him are likely to get a check this weekend or next.
Master David - I\'m not sure Bailey could have dislodged Solis.
Eddington - Your reading of the jockey situation is correct. Prado wanted to ride the horse back after the Gotham (and may have thought he had an agreement to do so), but Hennig and the owners wanted Bailey. They think he\'s got a better chance of getting Eddington to change leads.
Sinister G - I think Paul Toscano may have read TG\'s Las Vegas presentation on figure making (and the importance of compaction to track speed) before the Lane\'s End. I noticed in watching the replay that he seemed to keep Sinister G running on the innermost set of tire tracks, which were made readily visible by the process of sealing the track. If I\'m correct, that\'s why you noticed that he was slightly off the rail.
I have a pretty decent read on the other two derby preps (BG & ARK)but the Wood is kinda scary. What do you make of Value Plus\' pattern? 0-2-X??? Maybe? How about Royal Assult, (54% top after new top %) Hornshope (2 top w/ 63% top/pair trainer %) and Cuba (3 top w/ bl on)??? The favs are beatable. Someone please help me!!!!!
Bit said:
\"I noticed in watching the replay that he seemed to keep Sinister G running on the innermost set of tire tracks, which were made readily visible by the process of sealing the track. If I\'m correct, that\'s why you noticed that he was slightly off the rail.\"
Its funny. I consider the sealing a factor, but I never closely analyzed the paths for the tire marks. But I\'m convinced you\'re correct. That said, that part of the track before sealing was bad for most horses and the question is did staying right on that path move Sinister up? Its an interesting question. The momentum flows from the race are what are so intriguing to me. Watch it again and watch how Thats an Outrage ranges up four or five wide and takes the lead the whole time with his ears perked as if he\'s not even pressing. Then as the battle narrows to two he moves closer to the rail and lays his ears back and loses ground on a part of the track nearer the rail. Something similar happens with Tricky Taboo. He\'s making ground but then settles slightly closer to the rail and at the very end Sinister G. powers on to hold him safe again. (At least thats what i see from the angle and its not a great angle)
So the question is was Sinister G. on a golden part of the track (Post Sealing) that overcame a significant anti rail bias. Its an interesting question.
Good point Bit
I also failed to notice the WinStar was ungraded. Thx
CtC
Post Edited (04-10-04 09:55)
Your right the favs are underlays
Master David - hasn\'t got back to 2yr top, couple pts slower than others. throwout
Eddington - ran fast #2 back. Hennig made big mistake last out, at 3-1 I don\'t like line. Can you excuse the last, with the wind and all?
Value plus- I didn\'t like the neg# in the sprint, especially looking at his 2yr old line. I don\'t like the 2 off the neg. I am tossing.
Consecrate and tapit look alike to me. I see nothing that excites me about their lines in the short term.
Swingforthefences - the key, got down to the 9 in nov, 7.75 then the pair-up. I like the pattern which often leads to a new top. AT 10-1 the key.
Royal assault- the sleeper. He started with the pair and ran a 4pt top. That number makes him competitive and actually 3+ pts faster than the favs. Ditto Hornshope and Cuba. While both of those have gotten down to those #\'s quickly, which should effect them. Royal assault may have another in him, a pair up and the rail makes him competitive.
I am keying Swingforthefences, and using RA and EDDingtin
prado\'s agent told henning that edgar would not ride edd for just one race, and got a three race committment out of him (goth, wood, and derby). a few hours after edd failed to change leads, henning and bailey\'s agent were on the phone (not sure who called who). edgar got dumped in a bad way. henning has been pulling a lot of bs tricks with jockeys. he will pay in the long run....
Master Daivd the horse will romp these others in here. Did you forget who is behind this horse.............Bobby F. just in case you over looked it.
If he romps the testing will be off the charts.
You better get to the windows and cash those win tickets quickly.
Post Edited (04-10-04 11:34)