Byk keeps getting callers who are befuddled by horses getting \'crushed late\', such as 2-1 to 1-1, as if they were having their pocket picked by some nefarious past posting mob. He mentions everything , tote delays, archaic technology, except the simple percentages involved.
Forgetting about the more esoteric issues, and leaving takeout out of the equation, 2-1 to 1-1 is 33% to 50% of the pool.
I have the sneaking suspicion that most of the callers are math impaired and think the price has been cut in half.
2-1 to 1-1 is nothing , especially in the smaller pools. A well heeled gambler can do that in NY or Cali if so inclined and Todd or Bob gives them the heads up.
Pool integrity should be of interest to anyone who gambles on racing. The Clueless Clowns do not have the wherewithal to deal with this rather simple problem. It only takes technology and the necessary financial investment to substantially eliminate the antiquated system now in place which \"chokes\" on processing much of the wagering which comes to the pools in the last 30-45 seconds.
Stock exchanges/Banks process millions of transactions on a real time basis(within Milli-seconds)every day.
Like much of racings ills, this goes to the lightweights in charge of the game, their overall lack of business acumen,disregard for the players concerns.
Someone needs to do a study of the relationship between those flashes and results, and if there is correlation, look at where the bets are coming from.
By my eye, there is no relationship in the results that would indicate past posting.
And I\'m more than aware of how antiquated the tote system is. And sure, there is opportunity to cheat, in theory. But I\'ve seen no evidence of it and I look at it closely.
I\'d be the first to say there was something rotten going on , but I can\'t claim to have seen 1 suspicious \'late bet\' in years. As I said , I think most of the complaining is being done by folks that don\'t understand the workings of the pools.
Someone should ask Maury Wolf if he thinks there\'s cheating .
One factor, which I did not realize, but that Steve has mentioned a couple of times in the last few weeks on the show is the \"listed odds\" on the graphics package only changes when the running order changes, If they run 1/2/3/4 until the far turn and only then does the order change, only then will their listed odds change to reflect the late money.
So this is one of the things that contributes to the image of post posting (and I\'m not saying past posting does not ever happen either...just that this contributes to the appearance of it even more)...because as Miff says, the Clueless Clowns that run this sport don\'t give a damn about addressing their antiquated tech or legit player concerns.
Before offshore and inter track wagering, my wife and I made good wood every summer just charting the late double (there were only two doubles in those days). No sheets, no DRF, nothing but grid paper and a pen. Did the late money tell? Very reliably. Where did it come from? I have no idea.
It came from the same place as it does now.
Boscar wrote:
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> By my eye, there is no relationship in the results that would indicate past posting.
> And I\'m more than aware of how antiquated the tote system is. And sure, there is opportunity to cheat, in theory. But I\'ve seen no evidence of it and I look at it closely.
>I\'d be the first to say there was something rotten going on , but I can\'t claim to have seen 1 suspicious \'late bet\' in years.
+ 1
I posted about this topic on another thread not too long ago. I started to do a study of late drop downs. After two weeks I quit - every dropdown I saw was simply moving into line with the odds reflected by the DD Will Pays.
2-1 to 1-1? I see it all the time. Typically the horse is 1-1 or 6-5 in the Will Pays, he\'s 2-1 with 2 or 3 minutes to post, 8-5 or 7/5 as they get in the gate, and 6-5 or 1-1 as they go down the backstretch.
I also posted on the earlier thread. One of my observations was that \"late drop\" occurs much more frequently at smaller tracks. It also tends to me more significant, I\'ve seen horses go from 8-1 to 3-1 at Mountaineer. I believe this is related to the small pools at these tracks. I haven\'t noted movement like this at the major tracks. I was also suspicious but after watching closely I didn\'t think the drops were out of line. I will also note that they don\'t always win either. If there were consistent large drops on front runners on speed biased tracks I would have considered digging deeper but I didn\'t observe that. The antiquated systems seems more likely to be the root cause of the drops IMHO.
Which is...?
First if all, forget the small tracks. There\'s no way to get your arms around those price moves and it doesn\'t take much to move them. Second, the most volatility occurs in the exotic pools, exactas and doubles. Again, they\'re smaller than the win pool and it takes less money to move them. They are often a pretty good tell about the direction of money flow into the win pool as well as the outcome of the race, although, with all of the late money pouring in from satellite joints, good luck getting your bet down on time. Changes in final double probables is the only playable edge you\'ll catch going into the back half of the double. With rolling doubles though, you can use the back half as a key going into the next double.
Even if the odds dropping during the race is legit. The \"perception\" is not good. You know the \"perception\" that is trying to get rid of Lasix. LOL
To me this is the most important issue that needs to be resolved. Legit or not.
BetFair has one of the most sophisticated tech systems in racing. You can place a real time wager during the race on their system.
These clowns would rather fight about Lasix than fix an antiquated tote system.
The lasix issue was just brought up again and some top trainers are now for banning lasix when they were against it not to long ago. I wonder why? It can\'t be because their clients are for the ban can it? $$$$ LOL
One more thing... What about us, the bettor, player, gambler, or punter? We get the shaft if they ban lasix. How in the world are you going to tell if your horse that you bet is about to bleed? I know I won\'t be placing any wagers on horses that\'s for sure. I may as well try greyhounds. LOL
I talked about the least three sentences of that, almost word for word, at Saratoga last weekend, with the people that run a whole lot of major tracks. I agree completely.
Thank\'s Jerry... for speaking up about this issue to people who are in charge!
Hopefully they will HEAR you!
It doesn\'t matter whether they hear me or not. There is no mechanism that could make the changes this industry needs short of a player (customer) revolt, and I ain\'t doing it.
They were betting on horses for 100 years without worrying about bleeding.
All of a sudden its a deal killer?
\"They\" were betting for a 100 years... NOT ME! Yes, a deal killer for me.
If you place wagers HOW can you be confident in your bet with horses running without lasix?
As long as they can run faster than the other horses without lasix, I\'m good.
Ohh... you know the ones that won\'t bleed... Cool
Beau Wrote:
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> One more thing... What about us, the bettor,
> player, gambler, or punter? We get the shaft if
> they ban lasix. How in the world are you going to
> tell if your horse that you bet is about to bleed?
> I know I won\'t be placing any wagers on horses
> that\'s for sure. I may as well try greyhounds. LOL
Yes the absence of LASIX will add uncertainty to the game.
One thing I am certain of however is that at this very moment the folks who
develop equine PEDs are working feverishly to develop an undetectable
organic/synthetic substitute for LASIX.
We need to go back to the 1980s, when the only runners who were treated with
LASIX were runners who bled (visibly) during a workout or a race. I am aware that
high tech diagnostic tools developed since the 1980s now show that almost all
runners bleed to some extent during/ after exertion, and that there are those who
believe that not to allow even slight bleeders to be treated with a diuretic is
inhumane; I think this is a rather extreme position.
Fair enough!
I am totally against the BAN of a medication that is scientifically proven to help the horse.
This is a different era now. The technology and information today is far more advanced than when LASIX was not allowed in United States.
\"I am totally against the BAN of a medication that is scientifically proven to help the horse\"
Beau,
Science aside,as a player/gambler, how could one possibly be against the use of lasix?
Mike
Richie-- that second paragraph is dead on. And whatever they use won\'t be listed in the program.
I\'ll assume Beau is a youngster that didn\'t play when Lasix was not used.
He must imagine buckets of blood and pulled up horses in every race.
What you need to assume is that things will go back to when Lasix was being used and nobody knew. Well, almost nobody-- horses that had been stopping would be 15-1 on the ML, go of at 5/2 and run off the screen.
Ah, the good old days.
There will be something used, and it won\'t be in the program.
I recall at MTH in the late 70\'s( ??) they would post the LX horses in the Racing Sec\'s office, but nothing in the program.
Normally I don\'t post proprietary info like that but I feel that 30+ years is beyond the statute of limitations.
Yes. After a while they did that, and a few people who understood what it was worth-- and could get it-- made a lot of money.
Now imagine it\'s not posted anywhere. And it\'s happening every day on a large scale.
I knew about the postings, but I don\'t think I had a full appreciation of the significance.
Live and learn.
Exactly Mike
Boscar,
Yeah... I\'m 40 years old and didn\'t bet during the non lasix days but I do not think anything near buckets of blood or anything else. I\'m thinking about how anyone could confidently place a wager if they ban lasix, that\'s all.
Beau
One thing that\'s also not listed in the program is if a horse bleeds thru the lasix, and they get a higher dose of lasix for their next start, bettors don\'t know. The only way to know is if the horse bleeds so noticibly, that the chart caller sees it and adds it to the comment line in the PPs.
Part of the problem is no one entity owns the wagering infrastructure. Churchill owns United Tote (though they\'re not exactly what I\'d call committed to horse racing) but their control only goes to the demarc at the track. If a given track doesn\'t care to upgrade their systems, the tote companies can either accommodate or drop the track. If the tote company is unable or unwilling to upgrade, the ADWs have to accommodate or go out of business. Lacking a single \'owner\' such as a franchising body it\'s too easy for each component of racing the view infrastructure as someone else\'s problem which means we\'re soaking in the status quo.
This may clarify, it\'s more than some people think:
Sample Retailer Agreement to TRPB Tote Security System
TRPB Tote Security System Frequently Asked Questions
Who is TRPB?
What is the TRPB Tote Security System (TSS)?
Why is TSS important?
How does TSS work?
Is participation in TSS mandatory?
With regard to TSS, what is the definition of "retail association?"
What benefits do retail associations receive for participating in TSS?
What is the cost to a retail association to participate in TSS and how is this cost determined?
What is the cost to a non-TRA host racetrack to participate in TSS as a producer of racing content?
How am I billed?
What role does my tote company play in all this?
Do I need to purchase equipment or software to participate in TSS?
Are regulatory agencies involved in TSS?
What should I do next to ensure access to TRA-member Host track wagering pools?
Who can I contact with questions regarding TSS?
1. Who is TRPB?
TRPB is a wholly-owned subsidiary of the Thoroughbred Racing Associations of North America (TRA), which is comprised of 41 thoroughbred racetrack associations located throughout North America. Created in 1946, and headquartered in Fair Hill, Maryland, TRPB provides unique services encompassing racetrack security, racing-related investigations, corporate due diligence and risk management, information management, wagering analysis and tote security. The services provided by TRPB are designed to protect the legitimate business interests of TRA-member racetrack associations, and foster and maintain public confidence in the sport and business of thoroughbred racing.
2. What is the TRPB Tote Security System (TSS)?
TSS is a redundant communications and reporting system parallel to but independent from Inter-Tote System Protocol (ITSP), the communications network which currently transmits important race day control and wagering pool information between a race track hosting an event and authorized retailers throughout the entire pari-mutuel network. Although ITSP is an invaluable communications network which has served the racing industry well, its function does not lend itself toward necessary wagering system security improvements.
TSS will provide Host racetrack associations with important capabilities not presently available to them through ITSP. Upon being fully-implemented across the entire pari-mutuel network, TSS will enable a Host racetrack association to:
Better-manage central Race Day Control security and transparency, and verify execution of all essential Race Day Control functions from every tote hub within its pari-mutuel network;
Secure its stop-betting control, and ensure all commands are immediately disseminated throughout the simulcast network;
Authenticate each simulcast association's participation in their races;
Create a wagering transaction database enabling Host to audit bet detail, including the ability to track Pick-n pools on a leg-by-leg basis.
In addition to these important transparency and integrity features, TSS's point-of-presence on tote systems throughout the pari-mutuel retail network will enable the production of real-time decimal odds (RTDO) for the Win pools, based upon a dollar wager, which will provide faster and more-easily understood information for the wagering customer to calculate expected payoffs. The system is designed for a graduated response in the production of RTDO, whereby the refresh frequency of odds will quicken as a race's off time approaches, to within seconds starting at two minutes to post.
3. Why is TSS important?
The impetus for TSS stemmed from a perceived lack of public confidence in the current tote system, resulting in occasional failures of Host racetrack wagering pools to close prior to the start of a race. Late-odds shifts inherent within Inter-tote System Protocol (ITSP), fueled this perception and exacerbated the frustration of bettors. Regulators have repeatedly requested vendor-provided "wagering monitoring systems", which to date have proven to be both costly and ineffective from a network perspective.
4. How does TSS work?
TSS, through proprietary software developed by TRPB's lead technology vendor, The Jockey Club Technology Services, will capture specific data provided by each tote system. The state-of-the-art TSS Stop-Betting device, a standardized component of TSS having visual and audible cues, will communicate directly to the host tote system when activated by a racing official. The host tote system will disseminate the stop-betting command via Inter-tote System Protocol (ITSP), as it does currently. The Stop-Betting device will also transmit to the TSS central system, located at The Jockey Club's Network Operation Center, Lexington, Kentucky. This close-betting command will be broadcast to Host and all guest tote systems. TSS proprietary software will provide feedback throughout the system for stop-betting confirmation and audit purposes.
5. Is participation in TSS mandatory?
Participation in TSS is a requirement for retail associations offering pari-mutuel wagers on thoroughbred races hosted by TRA racetrack associations. Additionally, a number of racetracks which currently are not TRA-member associations have expressed to TRPB their interest in acquiring the benefits that TSS provides. As part of their agreement with TRPB to receive these benefits at cost, each non-TRA member racetrack association will be required to include language in its simulcast agreement making integration within TSS a condition for any retailer to access their wagering pools.
6. With regard to TSS, what is the definition of "retail association?"
TRPB defines a retail association as any organization which sells pari-mutuel wagers on horse racing content. Examples of a retail association would include a racetrack conducting simulcasting, an OTB, an ADW, and a casino racebook. For contractual and billing purposes, a retail association may be comprised of more than one retail location. For example, a racetrack association having multiple OTBs within its wagering network would be considered by TRPB to be a single retail association. Similarly, an OTB network within the same state or province, and under the same ownership, would be considered by TRPB to be a single retail association. As detailed later within this document, the TRPB Tote Security Retailer's Agreement will clearly identify the retail location(s) for which licensure under the Agreement is extended.
7. What benefits do retail associations receive for participating in TSS?
Participation on the TSS network provides the retailer with stop-betting redundancy, enabling the retail association to comply with the Host racetrack's contractual requirement that the retail association not accept wagers after the start of a race. Provisions within most simulcast contractual agreements state that it is the retail association who is financially liable for accepting wagers after the start of a race, notwithstanding a failure within the Host racetrack's communication network or within ITSP. Such an occurrence necessitates the retailer to refund all wagers accepted on a race, which is both costly to the retailer and frustrating to the bettor, or else the location 'books' the wagers and accepts the liability. Participation in the TSS network provides the retail association an opportunity to demonstrate to its customers and regulator its commitment to ensuring the integrity and transparency of pari-mutuel wagering.
8. What is the cost to a retail association to participate in TSS, and how is this cost determined?
By design, the cost of developing, implementing, and maintaining TSS is borne equitably by every retailer of racing content across the entire pari-mutuel network. The monthly license fee for TSS, established by TRPB, subject to the approval of the TRA Board of Directors, is US$950. The US$950 monthly license fee entitles the retail association access to the wagering pools of all host racetracks participating on the TSS network with which the retail association has a simulcast contractual agreement.
9. What is the cost to a non-TRA host racetrack to participate in TSS as a producer of racing content?
As a producer of thoroughbred or harness racing content, a non-TRA racetrack association may elect to enter into a Host Track Agreement to TRPB Tote Security System with TRPB, and receive the same benefits enumerated in the response to Question #2, above. Obviously, as non- TRA-member racetrack associations did not participate with TRA-member racetrack associations in their initial capitalization of this multi-million dollar initiative, a monthly fee will be assessed the non-TRA member racetrack associations during their live race meeting.
10. How am I billed?
Retail associations will be invoiced by TRPB, electronically and directly. The first of the month preceding the month of service, the retail association will receive an electronic invoice reflecting the time period of service being billed, charges, and instructions for payment. Payment must be made in full, and received no later than by the 15th of the month or the first business day thereafter to ensure no interruption in connectivity to TSS.
The preferred method of payment is by recurring ACH payments which will be collected on the 25th of the month preceding the month of service.
11. What role does my tote company play in all this?
AmTote International, Sportech Racing LLC, United Tote, and Las Vegas Dissemination, Inc. are vendors under contractual agreement with TRPB to develop software unique to their respective tote systems such that the technical requirements of TSS can be achieved. Thereafter, each tote company will provide ongoing support of TSS within their respective tote hubs and data centers. As each TRA and non-TRA racetrack association and pari-mutuel retailer is a customer of one of the TRPB-vendor tote companies, each tote company will be designated as a 3rd-party recipient of any agreement between TRPB and any racetrack or pari-mutuel retail association regarding TSS.
12. Do I need to purchase equipment or software to participate in TSS?
No. All software and devices necessary to facilitate connectivity to TSS for Canadian and American locations are provided by TRPB or its technology vendors, and included in the monthly costs assessed to retail associations and non-TRA-member racetrack associations participating in TSS. International locations should contact the TRPB for more details.
13. Are regulatory agencies involved in TSS?
The support and participation by regulators in the implementation of TSS throughout the North American pari-mutuel network is of critical importance. As TSS is implemented jurisdiction-by-jurisdiction throughout North America, TRPB and its technology vendors will work closely with regulators to ensure compliance with all regulations.
14. What should I do next to ensure access to TRA-member Host track wagering pools?
TRPB has forwarded to most retail associations a copy of the TSS Retailer's Agreement, which sets forth the terms and conditions for licensure to participate in TSS, and identifies the retail association's location(s) for which the license to participate in TSS is extended. Copies of the fully-executed Agreement will be provided to the retail association and its tote provider, with instructions for the tote company to integrate the retail association into the TSS infrastructure as soon as technically feasible.
A retail association will not be invoiced by TRPB until such time as it is fully-networked into TSS. To ensure compliance with the condition set forth in Host TRA-member racetrack simulcast agreements regarding participation in TSS, and to enable its tote provider to facilitate integration into the TSS network as soon as technically feasible, it is important that the TRPB Tote Security Retailer's Agreement be executed and returned to TRPB.
15. Who can I contact with questions regarding TSS?
To ensure a prompt response in the event you have additional questions regarding TSS, please feel free to contact TRPB at tssinfo@trpb.com.
They did it for years in NY, the last place to legalize Lasix, and the races were no less predictable than they are today. If a horse was a bleeder he didn\'t run in NY. That all changed with the Bleeders Cup.