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General Category => Ask the Experts => Topic started by: Tavasco on July 23, 2014, 05:33:15 AM

Title: Got Got Lucky or Not?
Post by: Tavasco on July 23, 2014, 05:33:15 AM
So I\'m going through the Wednesday Card @ Saratoga and I get to race 3. An Allowance race NW1X. The favorite #5. The morning line is even money. Pletcher, Velasquez, et al.

After I put a line thru her last as a non effort. I see She has run second to Untapable, Stop Charging Maria, My Miss Sophia and in her 1st ever race last October. Define Lucky?

She is dropping out of graded stakes company and apparently has only one speed and that is about 53 ft. per second. What to think? I guess her running style prohibits her from being a graded stakes dirt horse. How about turf?

To me, and I\'m rarely right about these things, she appears a major underlay and her last effort further clouds the picture. Of course I\'ve yet to look at who could beat her!
Title: Re: Got Got Lucky or Not?
Post by: Polamalu43 on July 23, 2014, 09:06:05 AM
Tavasco, I\'m tossing her completely.  If she beats, so be it.  Playing a P3 starting with that race.
Title: Re: Got Got Lucky or Not?
Post by: Tavasco on July 23, 2014, 09:42:33 AM
Yea, After a brief interruption to watch my recording of the Tour De France (what a bunch of dumb fans, reminds me of why I liked the Mille Miglia) I\'ve made my way to the the fifth and #9 Senso has confused me. Closers don\'t usually work fast!

Horse goes short priced based on fast works @ SA gets claimed by Jacobson sent to NY to work slowly? and put into a $70K MSW looks like a key for vertical players in the lesser placings.

Good Luck On Your Pic 3 winning the 1st leg will be a good start!