Here\'s my Santa Anita Derby rundown with my morning line:
1-Imperialism (8-1) I see him as a one-turn sprinter, maybe a Met Mile type, even, but I think he\'s a non-contender here. Not fast enough on my numbers.
2-Lucky Pulpit (15-1) Mostly a pace factor here, but I have a hard time seeing him stick around; he only ran one race fast enough to contend here, and I don\'t see him running back to it.
3-Wimbledon (8-5) Right now he\'d be my Kentucky Derby Pick -- his new found running style (being able to relax or maybe he just matured) helps him a lot. I think he\'s an underlay here though; Baffert doesn\'t care to squeeze the lemon dry as they say -- all he need do is run well and finish (against what is usually a speed biased track on Santa Anita Derby Day) to set him up for the big derby. He could win this, but I look for him the first Sat. in May, not April.
4-Castledale(30-1) Not a threat here. Not sure why Mullins is keeping him on the dirt; in my mind, he\'s clearly a grass horse.
5-Quinton\'s Gold Rush (8-1) He\'s a puzzler to me; I liked him in the San Rafeal; he just didn\'t relax and seemed uncomfortable; he really needs to mature and fast and that\'s not what usualy happens in Grade I races; I\'ll say, he could be the speed here and could go a long way; tough call for me -- usually when I jump off they win big, so maybe you all want to hammer him.
6-Rock Hard Ten (6-1) Every wise guy\'s special. He\'s way too slow on my numbers though one could argue he\'s never even run more than a quarter mile, so maybe there\'s this limitless potential for him to find; my guess would be this is a tough spot, and if he lags behind these he\'ll have no shot -- I\'m not biting, so again, upgrade his chances since I\'ve jumped off!
7-St Averil (2-1) The fastest three year old in the country on my numbers; I love him here, plus he gets to stalk the speed from a great post; anything over 2-1 would be amazing to me, though if they bet Rock Hard Ten and Wimbledon big, I might even get 3-1 (perhaps I\'m dreaming). I feel this is his day to shine; I\'m not tossing him in the Kenturcky Derby either (unless he runs poorly here), but I think this is HIS Derby. Interestingly, I said I like Wimbledon in the Ken. Derby, but if you look up breeding, this guy has way better breeding than Wimbledon.
Good Luck to all.
Dana,
Good luck.
Regarding Quinton\'s Gold Rush - he is indeed slow relative to most of the others coming into this race but I think his line is very explosive and I would not be surprised to see him run a big one on Saturday. But even a big jump might not get it done against this bunch. I could see him getting completely overlooked in here though and he might be the one possible value at likely double digit odds.
Regarding St. Averil - one interesting note from his trainer is that he had some foot problems and trained up to his last race in bar shoes but now his feet are supposedly much better.
Regarding Rock Hard Ten - Maybe it\'s just my sick mind but SA may get some pressure to sensor Treveor Denman\'s stretch call with him in the race. I can hear it now, \"Three of them across the track. They\'re battling down to the wire. It\'s gonna be close. It\'s Rock Hard Ten...bleeeeeeeeeeeeeeep...\" I will let you fill in the blanks yourself since this is a family-friendly web-site.
Chris
Dana--
Excellent analysis. I think Baffert cranks up for the win knowing he has 4 weeks to recover (e.g. CAVONNIER, SILVER CHARM).
I think Baffert\'s being more cautious with PATB, running him in the Blue Grass with \"only\" 3 weeks in between. Perhaps there is where BB wants just a nice finish.
Good Luck,
joe B.
I don\'t understand why The Rock is a wise guy horse, he wil be around 4-1 tom. 3-1ML and St.Averil will be 8-5 to 9-5 this will be the wise guy hoss, I\'m going with The Rock of course.
Will they be censoring Trevor on the basis of his reference as Aerosmith would say to \"the big ten inch record\" or censoring him on the basis of his incessant screeching?
I see far fewer \"jump ups\" in stakes races than claimers. Few at any rate that surprise me. I believe one of the reasons is that when your jumping with the best the crossbar is already set at heights harder to hurdle even with medicinal help. I also believe theres a bit more scrutiny with the stakes, even a little bit more on the backside.
Looks like Zito declared Eurosilver from the Derby. Thats odd, I could see taking a position against the Bluegrass on a virus, but the Derby? I wonder...
CtC
I see the SA Derby shaping up something like this, in my best Trevor Denman voice.
And awaaayyyy they go, they break in a perfect line. Lucky Pulpit goes straight to the front, Quintons Gold Rush now goes up to keep that one company as they head towards the first turn. Rock Hard Ten settles in third, followed by St Averil, whos under a tight hold. Then comes Castledale, and another two lenths back to Wimbledon, whos nice and relaxed under Javier Santiago. Imperialism saves ground on the rail, seven lengths will cover the field.
As they head down the backstretch, its still Lucky Pulpit. Quintons Gold Rush is applying the pressure - the half in 46.5 Rock Hard Ten is content in third, on the outside of that one comes St. Averil. Castledale is losing ground in fourth, about to be past by Wimbledon. Its another 6 lenths back to Imperialism.
As they hit the far turn, its still Lucky Pulpit - But there goes St. Av-e-ril! St. Averil moves up three wide to challenge the leaders. Quintons Gold Rush is tough between horses. Rock Hard Ten is being asked for more run but is not responding. Here comes Wimbledon. He is going to have to go four wide but he\'s coming fast. Lets see... Imperialism is going to need room to run.
As they hit the top of the stretch its St. Averil, opening up a half a length now, going to be joined on the outside by Wilmbledon, Lucky Pulpit and Quintons Gold Rush can\'t go with them. Its St. Averil and Wimbeldon. Imperialism is going to try to find room on the rail. Wimbledon is tough, St. Averil is finding more --Imperialis finds room now, and Imperialism explodes. St. Averil and Wimbeldon are running there hearts out, but with a sixtenth to run, its all Imperialism, who just inhales them. Wimbledon is going to touch St. Averil out for second and Quintons Gold Rush finishes fourth.
\"Thats why they call it gambling\"
Ron
GREAT CALL!!!
Reading along I got that close finish excitement feeling!!!
lol
and you didn\'t sound the least bit like a transformer :)
I don\'t know what to make of the San Rafael.Theres two ways to look at it I suppose. One is that Lion Heart got caught because he ran out of steam. If thats the case, Imperialism was life and death to mow down a tired horse.
The other way to look at it is that They were Five clear of the field and looking superior to the other horses...
Did Imperialism catch a dead game horse or one running out of gogo albeit at a slower rate than the others?
However you figure it one thing is clear. He has been making up ground late on a track thats sometimes hard to close into. You have to count that in his favor. The race is a brain twister for me...i\'m gonna watch. I like too many horses
CtC
I think Rock Hard Ten is the \"wise-guy\" horse
only to those who have seen him in the flesh, as opposed to just on paper.
He looks like a different species, an absolute giant. His trainer though, well, I guess we will see what he can do with his first true good one.
Personally, I would make it a 4 horse race and go for the exotics with Rock Hard Ten, St. Averil, Quinton\'s Gold Rush and Castledale.