1st: Jimmy Conners & Away Game are 3yos getting in light. JC looks like lone speed & could wire the field while Away Game is a better value & looks like the fastest at the weights.
5th: While there\'s no way Havana is going off 6/1, I\'ll play him to beat Social Inclusion. Thinking he needed his last his 2yo top is fast enough with 3yo improvement to take this. If I try to beat SI for 2nd, it will be with Favorite Tale, who has only run 1 bad race out of 5 (of course it was the 1 time I bet him)
8th: I\'m singling Better Lucky in all exotics
9th: I\'ll play Normandy Invasion to beat Palace Malice, but I won\'t leave PM out of multi-race exotics
10th: I\'m singling Seek Again in this one after his Hollywood win at the distance & head loss to Wise Dan in the Turf Classic.
Belmont Stakes: I\'m not going to let California Chrome beat me in the multi race bets but I\'ll also play Wicked Strong & Medal Count in exotics box these 3 in tris & exactas.
12th: I\'m taking a shot with both North Star Boy, who won\'t be anywhere near his 10/1 ML and 20/1 ML Developer who could be double digit odds if the crowd doesn\'t forgive that bad turf race at Tampa off an 11 month layoff.
Saturday\'s Belmont Stakes card is truly awesome. I\'ll get into the Manhattan and Belmont Stakes now and will follow up with more later.
Belmont Stakes
Nobody would love to see a Triple Crown winner more than me. I think we are all in store for a treat, it should be a fantastic race. I\'m not going to deny that CALIFORNIA CHROME has a big chance to win this race, but I have two reasons to bet against him – 1) he has a target on his back and the added distance certainly won't do him any favors, and 2) his odds will be low, 3/5 at best. Chrome\'s \'breakaway\' move in the early stretch is uncanny and a valuable weapon in Espinoza\'s arsenal, but the longer journey to that point will be draining and have an impact on how much he has left approaching the wire. In a measure of feet, the final stretch run to the wire at Belmont is a shorter distance than that at either Churchill Downs or Pimlico, so if Chrome has the same ridiculous burst in him that we are getting accustomed to seeing, then he wins. But my hunch is that he will not get another perfect trip and that combined with the added distance will prevent him from winning the Triple Crown.
With that said, WICKED STRONG had an awful post in the Derby but still managed to pick up a check. He enters the race well meant after five weeks off; he is working well and has shown that he can run all day. This horse calls NY home and Jimmy Jerkens will have him ready to go; he wins if we can get a clean trip, relax about 4-5 lengths off the lead and run a new top figure. COMMANDING CURVE will set out to prove that his second-place finish in the KY Derby was no fluke and he ships in with a real chance to make some noise in this race. He has yet to regress in his career and I believe he has a solid chance to score the upset if Bridgmohan can time his move well. Curve would be my top choice but trainer Dallas Stewart is 0 for his last 9 at Belmont going back to 2011. However, this horse is fit and dangerous.
Selections:
Wicked Strong
Commanding Curve
California Chrome
Wager thoughts:
- I will look to play one or both Wicked Strong and Commanding Curve WP, but will be watching the board and the horses in the paddock closely in the minutes leading up to the race.
- Exacta 4,9 / 2,4,7,9
- Trifecta 4,9 / 2,4,9 / 2,4,7,9
Finally, I do think that horses that run in all three legs in the Triple Crown are at a disadvantage in the Belmont Stakes, as this great article on Thoroughbred Racing Commentary shows ThoroughbredRacing.com (http://bit.ly/1kt2JOY)
The G1 Manhattan
Earlier on twitter (my handle is @TRCTomQ), I mentioned that one of my favorite angles in turf routes is horses making their third consecutive turf start in their form cycles. Five contenders fit that profile here - Rookie Sensation, Boisterous, Five Iron, Real Solution, and Kaigun. Seek Again will be tough in this race, but I\'m going to hope that the winner comes out of the aforementioned 5 horses. Their morning line odds range from 5-1 to 15-1. Of the five, I like Real Solution and Five Iron the best. A pace duel with Imagining will not help Five Iron though, so I\'m hoping that Real Solution can buck his losing trend and get to the wire first here. More later...
my once a year post..
Godolphin\'s Romansh looks like he has a nice TG at a big big price. Throwing out the career worst effort in the Donn and assuming enough time since the last. A pair up here at the weight gives him a fair chance to hit the board? I\'m guessing the Travers last year was too soon and maybe too long but this may be the time to catch this one while still under the radar. Then again he may be a ResortsWorld specialist or too far back and/or wide but I\'ll bet a 4yr old with this sheet every day if I could get a price.
Why does no one credit ROC? I don\'t like the third race in 5 weeks, but his daddy came around a little late in a big way and this guy was rolling good the from last pole two weeks ago.
I will have him in the top three spots. Sure I like WS, Curve, MC, too, but I am only surprised that this horse has been dissed in this board for weeks...
Leamas
But his daddy got beat by a girl.
Good call...ROC is an extreme \"horse for course\"...enormous Belmont fig as a 2YO...
now finally through last year\'s top and gets his track.
Some other HFC angles...CLOSE HATCHES, BETTER LUCKY, and CLEARLY NOW who comes out
of what may prove to be a key race.
Good comments, people!
gteasy
Leamas57 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Why does no one credit ROC? I don\'t like the
> third race in 5 weeks, but his daddy came around a
> little late in a big way and this guy was rolling
> good the from last pole two weeks ago.
>
> I will have him in the top three spots. Sure I
> like WS, Curve, MC, too, but I am only surprised
> that this horse has been dissed in this board for
> weeks...
>
Big new top, 3 weeks rest. Tough to use at the price I think.
smalltimer Wrote:
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> But his daddy got beat by a girl.
That was no girl--it was the daughter of Pegasus getting weight. And this is an inclusive website so I don\'t care if \"she\" was a lesbian either.
Leamas
I know ROC hasn\'t been getting much love on this board. Two career wins at 5.5f and 6f. Never won a route race at any distance, and now we\'re supposed to love him to win at 12f?
Bet as much on your opinion as you\'d like, if you\'re right you can crow about it.
Good luck today.
Kobe\'s Back has an interesting pattern in the 5th at Belmont. If you look at his \"off\" races they are on Poly Track, off tracks, or at the speed sewer that Santa Anita is. His other races on dirt make him a contender. I\'ll take a shot at 15-1 and use him with Havana and SI.
Looking at the board Away Game is 12-1 and that\'s almost scary! I\'ll take a shot here and play doubles with Kid Cruz and Legend.
Kid Cruz Preakness effort was poor but was it a bounce or was he over his head? He was so far back and was never interested. This field is pretty weak and he may be able to win this without a significant rebound.
Is it just me or is the Belmont the least interesting race wagering wise on the card? I can\'t play CC at that price, others look equally as good, yet this horse always wins!! Must be the nasal strip!!!!!
Good luck to all!!!!
One of the angles I get from the archives is a new top at Pimlico spells trouble at Belmont. That\'s a knock against both the favorite and ROC and probably GAR as well considering how he was stopped, shuffled back and came again, his Preakness was probably an effort.
The Belmont is the best wagering race so far this year. Chrome is a huge underlay and very beatable.
Tough beat. Sometimes the board is right and sometimes the board is wrong. In this case the numbers were right on ROC.
Wasn\'t his day, but a freshen up and he\'ll be heard from again. Took Curlin a while to arrive at his best level and stay there.
Peace out.