thanks to all for some great discussion on the board the last few weeks, I have been a slient follower
I don\'t think the TGs/TG theoires are as relevant for the Belmont as I do for every other race given the distance and so I haven\'t shared thoughts since the thoughts have nothing to do with the figures
I think the Belmont comes down to
pedigree
running style
a jock that understands how to ride a mile and a half race
which all translate into...
...ability to get the distance
much more than figures
that said, some of the TG theory in the form of weight and ground loss certainly applies to the Brooklyn, a 2 mile turf race on Friday that is the first part of a Brooklyn/Belmont double
Twilight Eclipse is a tremendous horse and the fan in me would love to see a WPT sweep of the Brroklyn/Belmont double as I find the WPT connections emminently more likeable than Chrome\'s connections but the gambler in me thinks Twilight Eclpise is vulnerable giving up as much as 12 pounds going two miles to some other very nice horses in the first start back from Dubai which can take alot out of horses. I would also note Albertrani\'s 1 or 23 record at the current meet.
The filly in the race gets in very light at 110 assuming the rider can make 110? and she should be able to save some ground, the Bobby Flay charge is well suited to the distance (if there is such a thing at 2 miles) and gets Javier in what surely has to become a riders race. The other one I would use is Eagle Poise as I can forgive his last on good turf and believe he can get the ditance, especially getting 6 pds from Twilight Eclipse
So, let\'s try a 3x3 double with Irish Mission, Auld Alliance and Eagle Poise over Wicked Strong, Medal Count and Commissioner.
Thoughts are most welcome, thanks!
a 2 mile race. tough to have a high degree of confidence here.
but the best way to get good at anything in life is to take risk, fail, and learn.
Charming Kitten - decent figures. TG makes that mile and a half race better than it appears. looks like he was getting a bit leg weary at the end, but the 6:06 final 1/16 suggests CK wasn\'t spent. handled the off going pretty well at Haw, and they are getting a good amount of rain today/tonight. nice post in the 11 horse field. not crazy about Wild Again on bottom for the distance, but there\'s some stamina behind that.
and I like Irish Mission\'s pedigree for the marathon, and you get Clement. fits well at the weights, but we\'ll have to wait and see who makes what.
CK and IM.
good luck Jim.
Agreed on CK. Also going BL OFF to relax him a bit more too.
Plus Albertrani has (somewhat explicitly) said this is just to get TW going again (just a few works back since Dubai) for the Bowling Green. And that post of course sure is no joy at 9/5.
And with so many in, might even get a few points better than the ML on the kitten.
Pretty happy to play against TW in the top 2 spots in hopes of catching a really nice EX score here.
covelj70 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> thanks to all for some great discussion on the
> board the last few weeks, I have been a slient
> follower
>
> I don\'t think the TGs/TG theoires are as relevant
> for the Belmont as I do for every other race given
> the distance and so I haven\'t shared thoughts
> since the thoughts have nothing to do with the
> figures
>
> I think the Belmont comes down to
>
> pedigree
> running style
> a jock that understands how to ride a mile and a
> half race
> which all translate into...
> ...ability to get the distance
>
> much more than figures
>
> that said, some of the TG theory in the form of
> weight and ground loss certainly applies to the
> Brooklyn, a 2 mile turf race on Friday that is the
> first part of a Brooklyn/Belmont double
OK, lets straighten things out. The two mile turf race on Friday is the Belmont
Gold Cup Invitational; the Brooklyn will be run at 1-1/2 on Saturday to placate
figure makers who will have some vague point of reference for making a figure for
the Belmont Stakes later in the day (LETS KEEP CLOSE WATCH ON THE SHADOW OF THE
GRANDSTAND).
> Twilight Eclipse is a tremendous horse and the fan
> in me would love to see a WPT sweep of the
> Brroklyn/Belmont double as I find the WPT
> connections emminently more likeable than Chrome\'s
> connections but the gambler in me thinks Twilight
> Eclpise is vulnerable giving up as much as 12
> pounds going two miles to some other very nice
> horses in the first start back from Dubai which
> can take alot out of horses. I would also note
> Albertrani\'s 1 or 23 record at the current meet.
Speaking of owner likeability, we never held it against Lou Wolfson, owner of the
last Triple Crown winner, that he spent nine months in Federal prison for selling
unregistered stock. In the 2 miler, Barclay Tagg\'s runner has competitive TGs,
likes Belmont, and should be 10/1 or more based on his recent camera shyness.
> The filly in the race gets in very light at 110
> assuming the rider can make 110? and she should be
> able to save some ground, the Bobby Flay charge is
> well suited to the distance (if there is such a
> thing at 2 miles) and gets Javier in what surely
> has to become a riders race. The other one I
> would use is Eagle Poise as I can forgive his last
> on good turf and believe he can get the ditance,
> especially getting 6 pds from Twilight Eclipse
The filly had a magical mystery tour in the Sheepshead Bay, pressing the pace,
dropping out of contention, then rallying in the lane. The favorite has never won
at Belmont although almost all of his races there have been Gr 1.
> So, let\'s try a 3x3 double with Irish Mission,
> Auld Alliance and Eagle Poise over Wicked Strong,
> Medal Count and Commissioner.
Public Service Announcement: There is also an \"overnight\" daily double combining
Friday\'s True North and Saturday\'s Metropolitan.
> Thoughts are most welcome, thanks!
phil23 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Agreed on CK. Also going BL OFF to relax him a bit
> more too.
excellent point in regards to the blinkers. it\'s the first thing Pletcher talked about after the race.
for those who didn\'t play the race, check out the mile and a half figures for CK and the favorite, Draw Two. they looked the same on Beyer.
and thanks, Jim. you got me off the other favorite right off the bat.
> Plus Albertrani has (somewhat explicitly) said
> this is just to get TW going again (just a few
> works back since Dubai) for the Bowling Green. And
> that post of course sure is no joy at 9/5.
>
> And with so many in, might even get a few points
> better than the ML on the kitten.
>
> Pretty happy to play against TW in the top 2 spots
> in hopes of catching a really nice EX score here.