Since approved in NY, Gary Contessa used nasal strip on 3 horses,all won.NYRA looking at Nasal Strip on equipment change.James Jerkens thinking of using on Wicked Strong in Belmont.
JB, is Equibase download showing nasal strip added?
Mike, what did the 3 Contessa horses pay to win?
One was a $60 bomber on Thursday, but he didn\'t have any winners in the last 2 days (10 mounts) who knows.
Mike,
Not sure what Contessa horses paid but think in the long run, it will all be a wash.Out in Cali, some very sharp trainers abandoned the use of the nasal strip after feeling there was no benefit.
As long as \"they\" start to announce/post nasal strip on/off, it should be easy to track.
Mike
I suspect some horses it\'ll help a little bit, some it\'ll make no difference. It\'s not some super enhancer.
I think shoes are a much bigger factor.
well, contessa was doing quite well before the strips.
they should be reported this just on principle.
We\'re tying to find out about the nasal strip info. What a s--t show.
NYSGC and NYRA aware, some rule will probably come from the Stewards who are responsible in NY for all equipment changes.
I\'m doing a prelim here using Contessa as the example.
He won on 5/23 going 1M at 20K claimer and won and paid about 20.00, the horse had been claimed 5/1/14 from D. Jacobson for 12.5K after running 5th that race. The horse is back in today (8 days later) going a mile for 16K.
His horse Regulus ran on 5/17/14 6f at 40K claimers. He returned 7 days later on 524/14 and won a 7f for 25K.
He won on 5/29/14 with Ode to Sami after taking over the horse from Tony Pecoraro at Lrl on 10/14/13 or so.
I don\'t see any designation in any of the racing past performances that I use, nor is there anything on the result charts prior to or after a race with the strip on.
Only place I see a designation \"y\" is Golden Gate and I don\'t even know what \"y\" is a symbol for.
Other than the Belmont Stakes, I can\'t play the NY circuit unless and until they can denote that info \"before\" the fact. My exceptions might be on a horse taken over by Contessa after the date the strips were being allowed. But, still just a guess at that point.
What a cluster...
Mike,
NYRA can\'t even announce first time gelding which I see as a very good angle.
Yesterday on twitter Dave Grenning reported after the race (of course) that the winner of the 8th race was a first time gelding but on NYRA\'s scratch / change menu they didn\'t have anything noted. It\'s unbelievable!
smalltimer Wrote:
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> I\'m doing a prelim here using Contessa as the
> example.
> He won on 5/23 going 1M at 20K claimer and won and
> paid about 20.00, the horse had been claimed
> 5/1/14 from D. Jacobson for 12.5K after running
> 5th that race. The horse is back in today (8 days
> later) going a mile for 16K.
> His horse Regulus ran on 5/17/14 6f at 40K
> claimers. He returned 7 days later on 524/14 and
> won a 7f for 25K.
> He won on 5/29/14 with Ode to Sami after taking
> over the horse from Tony Pecoraro at Lrl on
> 10/14/13 or so.
> I don\'t see any designation in any of the racing
> past performances that I use, nor is there
> anything on the result charts prior to or after a
> race with the strip on.
> Only place I see a designation \"y\" is Golden Gate
> and I don\'t even know what \"y\" is a symbol for.
> Other than the Belmont Stakes, I can\'t play the NY
> circuit unless and until they can denote that info
> \"before\" the fact. My exceptions might be on a
> horse taken over by Contessa after the date the
> strips were being allowed. But, still just a
> guess at that point.
> What a cluster...
According to Equibase, \"Y\" is an equipment change -- no shoes. (I, for one, will ignore all of this stuff in my handicapping. Weighting all of the classic handicapping factors in importance -- distance, surface, first time gelding, time between races, performance figures, trainer changes, on and on... is tough enough).
There is almost no acknowledgement that the players even exist. No rule change like this should be promulgated without arrangements put in place to notify the players in some way prior to the days races.
thank you sir.
And that\'s the effin point, that none of this is about the players, when it all should be. Football and the Olympics take things a lot more seriously, and they don\'t even depend on betting.
An entire industry is going in the crapper and they can\'t figure out customers matter.
People bet when they have an opinion. The weaker your opinion is the less you bet. That\'s why I had them put that question in the Jockey Club drug survey, I thought it might get someone\'s attention, out of self interest.
What was I thinking.
Players should have all information available to them, then they can make informed decisions and wager on their opinion.
How do they expect a site like TG to produce the very best numbers possible if not all info is available to them? Symbols like bo, bi, tu, etc all play a part in the decision to play a horse or not.
IF the information on Chrome back in December indicated that he had a shoe change and an added nasal strip and THEN the horse jumped up and continued to run great at least there would be reasons to think he might just keep on running well.
When changes are made to a horse and the handicappers are unaware of it and then the horse wins and you find out LATER, that\'s what pisses me off.
In other words, put the info out there and if I make a poor decision that\'s just too bad for me.
JB, you are exactly right. The more guesswork there is the weaker the opinion the smaller the wagering dollars.
I think sekrah, or someone on the board said the strip hasn\'t or doesn\'t make a difference in horses. Probably 90% of the time that\'s true, except when it isn\'t true like Chrome. If it weren\'t a big deal, the connections wouldn\'t have made the stand they did with NY earlier. They know it helps THIS horse.
smalltimer Wrote:
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> Players should have all information available to
> them, then they can make informed decisions and
> wager on their opinion.
> How do they expect a site like TG to produce the
> very best numbers possible if not all info is
> available to them? Symbols like bo, bi, tu, etc
> all play a part in the decision to play a horse or
> not.
> IF the information on Chrome back in December
> indicated that he had a shoe change and an added
> nasal strip and THEN the horse jumped up and
> continued to run great at least there would be
> reasons to think he might just keep on running
> well.
> When changes are made to a horse and the
> handicappers are unaware of it and then the horse
> wins and you find out LATER, that\'s what pisses me
> off.
> In other words, put the info out there and if I
> make a poor decision that\'s just too bad for me.
> JB, you are exactly right. The more guesswork
> there is the weaker the opinion the smaller the
> wagering dollars.
> I think sekrah, or someone on the board said the
> strip hasn\'t or doesn\'t make a difference in
> horses. Probably 90% of the time that\'s true,
> except when it isn\'t true like Chrome. If it
> weren\'t a big deal, the connections wouldn\'t have
> made the stand they did with NY earlier. They
> know it helps THIS horse.
We don\'t know if the strip made the difference.
Didn\'t someone post that he had a change in shoes before the huge jump??
Paul,
My understanding is the farrier made the shoe change without even telling the connections.
The shoe change and the nasal strip made Chrome a new horse, so maybe a combination of both changes.
Peace out man!!
I would offer that Lasix, blinkers and Espinoza made a bigger difference than the nasal strip! bbb
bbb,
I looked at Chrome\'s entries, the result charts and there is no mention of a shoe change or nasal strip.
I did notice that Chrome ran the first 3 starts of his career with No Lasix or blinkers but with front wraps on.
He ADDED Lasix and blinkers in his 4th career start at Dmr on 7/13 with a win, then he had 2 straight losses, one at Dmr on 9/4 and another loss at SA on 11/1.
I also noticed between his last race on Nov 1 at Santa Anita and the next out where he whistled, he did have 5 workouts. Its fair to say the improvement began during that period between Nov 1 and the Dec 22 race where he crushed the field. Espinoza also rode him the first time following the workouts. I personally think Espinoza has made a huge difference in the way the horse is now being ridden.
Logic suggests the shoes and the strip made a difference because before the shoes and strip were added the horse was not running that well.
The horse was late in his 2 year old campaign. They\'ve been known to get faster at that time. Don\'t know how much the shoes+strip change helped, but I\'ll bet you it\'s not worth 8 points. That\'s outrageous.
The shoes changed his stride to 110 degrees.
So how often do horses with shoe changes make 8 point jumps?
sekrah Wrote:
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> The horse was late in his 2 year old campaign.
> They\'ve been known to get faster at that time.
> Don\'t know how much the shoes+strip change helped,
> but I\'ll bet you it\'s not worth 8 points. That\'s
> outrageous.
I don\'t know what made CC improve so much but trainers know for a long time (even before they race) that they have a special horse and Art has trained thousands of horses. Art\'s box at Del Mar is directly behind mine and he told me and others that he did not understand why CC ran so poorly the day he ran 6th in a race -- \"because he was REALLY good.\" He followed that one up with a 6th at SA and then went on his current tear. I think if you were to ask him what moved CC up he would just say he was good before and just continued to get better and better.
I personally don\'t believe there was any elixir -- be it shoes, nasal strip or anything else that moved him up. But, that is what makes this challenging and fun.
First of all, how would anyone know, since we don\'t get the data.
But what we have here is a horse who jumped way up AND STAYED THERE. No bounces. If someone can show me other examples of horses who had established a level (meaning that a previous effort had set them back), jumped that much to a GI level, and stayed there, without a trainer change or the addition of Lasix, please show me. The only one I can think of is Cigar (who had run on dirt earlier in his career), and I\'ve been told recently Allday was treating him (can\'t confirm).
Let me put it this way. If CC was running without the strip in the Belmont I would make the biggest bet of my life, without any hesitation, throwing him out of the supers.
TMW Wrote:
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> sekrah Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > The horse was late in his 2 year old campaign.
> > They\'ve been known to get faster at that time.
> > Don\'t know how much the shoes+strip change
> helped,
> > but I\'ll bet you it\'s not worth 8 points.
> That\'s
> > outrageous.
>
>
> I don\'t know what made CC improve so much but
> trainers know for a long time (even before they
> race) that they have a special horse and Art has
> trained thousands of horses. Art\'s box at Del Mar
> is directly behind mine and he told me and others
> that he did not understand why CC ran so poorly
> the day he ran 6th in a race -- \"because he was
> REALLY good.\" He followed that one up with a 6th
> at SA and then went on his current tear. I think
> if you were to ask him what moved CC up he would
> just say he was good before and just continued to
> get better and better.
>
> I personally don\'t believe there was any elixir --
> be it shoes, nasal strip or anything else that
> moved him up. But, that is what makes this
> challenging and fun.
Agree 100%. Some people will just try to find any absurd reasoning to explain things, except what is clearly obvious to the rest of us.
You are correct in that we don\'t get the data and probably should but these horse guys (trainers not necessarily owners) are really smart -- just look at the intricacies of drug usage -- and nasal strips are anything but that and most trainers think they are unimportant and cost essentially nothing. Knowledge is power and i get that. I am not against obtaining the information but let me ask you a question. If SI has a nasal strip for the first time in the Belmont, what will you do? Jumps up anywhere near 8 points and will win.
So Nasal Strips are keeping CC sound? Resilient? Tendons tight? Not carrying heat anywhere?......comon!
First of all, you\'re assuming nasal strips make the same difference for all horses, and that\'s as likely as for Lasix. By which I mean it\'s not. And SI was already running GI figures. CC was not. Not even close.
Second, I can guarantee I\'ve had a lot more experience working with trainers than you have, and I totally disagree. The best ones are almost always smart enough to admit they don\'t know much.
There are a lot of sound horses who don\'t run fast enough to win GI\'s.
TGJB Wrote:
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> First of all, you\'re assuming nasal strips make
> the same difference for all horses, and that\'s as
> likely as for Lasix. By which I mean it\'s not. And
> SI was already running GI figures. CC was not. Not
> even close.
>
> Second, I can guarantee I\'ve had a lot more
> experience working with trainers than you have,
> and I totally disagree. The best ones are almost
> always smart enough to admit they don\'t know much.
\"Guarantee\"? I have kind of a lot...
I thought I was actually complimenting you and the usage of your figures versus what could be mumbo jumbo handicapping. Substitute SI for any other horse in the race then. I just randomly selected a horse.
I don\'t think Frankel, Pletcher, Baffert, Drysdale think they are smart enough to admit they don\'t know much. I will ask them. (Unfortunately, I cannot ask Frankel).
Frankel definitely would have said so. Nice guy. With Baffert, depends on what kind of mood he\'s in and whether there\'s a microphone around. Had no dealings with the other two. Had dealings with LOTS of trainers in the east and midwest, and fired three in California alone, all of whom have trained GI winners.
TMW,
I\'m not anticipating a sudden improvement by any horse as a result of adding a nasal strip. Assuming a horse will improve with the strip is a total guess.
I wouldn\'t think after the fact the trainers or fans can no longer use Chrome\'s use of shoes or strip as a advantage to his winning. The shoes and strip are available to every single horse in the race. Those changes have worked for him, they\'re legal, so we try to beat him knowing that.
If SI adds a strip and it assists his breathing, not that big of a deal. If a horse like Wicked Strong added a strip and it assists his breathing, whole different ballgame. Until they show improvement, I\'ll handicap these horses \"as is.\"
Funny you say Frankel was a nice guy. He really was. People were afraid of him out here because he had a lot of New York in him (no offense anyone). Anything but laid back and was very direct. Though didn\'t even call us when our horses were running -- \"if you are not even paying attention enough to know when your @#%^\'in horse is running too bad.\"
Liked animals more than humans. Miss him.
Make sure this isn\'t an ignorance is bliss kinda thing.
Very easy to cherry pick something like this after the fact as say , \"Aha, if I only knew, I\'d be a rich man.\"
If you knew everything that went on , on a daily basis, your head would explode.
TMW wrote:
Liked animals more than humans. Miss him.
Saw a bumper sticker once: The more people I meet, the more I like my dog.
Sorry, I already had my Sunday sermon.
Right church , wrong pew?
NYRA/Stewards gave an \"Oh, players want to know about the nasal strip on\"?
Seems it isn\'t an equipment change or is, depending on which way the wind is blowing or who you speak to at NYRA/Stewards.
Two billion $ bet on NYRA races,all three parties I spoke to were silent(stunned) when I posed the question.One guy suggested they might have to sight the horses in the paddock and then relay the info to the TV people to add it to the crawl....f-king unbelievable.
Just make it a NYRA house rule, nasal strip on/off must be reported pre race like blinker/shoe changes, post it and add it to the crawl.