Just put in a nice work with a strong gallop out..
Is this horse still improving?
johnnym Wrote:
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> Just put in a nice work with a strong gallop
> out..
> Is this horse still improving?
could be, but he\'s a Feb foal by a win early sire. from a betting perspective, it makes more sense to play a different runner for a new top.
the more I see of CC, the more I see Real Quiet. look at their sheets. quite similar, the main difference being the \'1\' Chrome popped in Dec. Real Quiet was pretty tough in the Belmont. if they ran this race today, I would have CC close at the finish but not my main key at odds on.
which spot they choose for Social Inclusion is important. if they jog around in :49, it\'s less likely CC folds in the final 1/8. the colt rates fine, but they want him up front and it\'s just not easy getting it right at a mile and a half, especially if they go fast early.
Michael:
What spot is chosen for Social Inclusion is very important to my wagering day.
If he turns up at a short price in the Woody Stephens, I will toss him from
the horizontal picture.
If I fancied this colt -- and I certainly do not and have not -- I would be
concerned regarding the facility with which CC outsprinted SI at the beginning
of the Preakness. Right now my assessment of SI is one dimensional, one turn
colt who might really favor GP.
At least we now know that the trainer\'s aversion to working SI more than a
half mile is born from a fear of losing a bandage. If SI\'s groom wrapped that
bandage, (s)he should be sentenced to 6 weeks hard labor aka walking hots.
Lots of the Belmont entrants have probably benefitted in terms of their
training as the weather here in NYC has featured cool evenings and mornings;
NYRA should be hopeful about having the weather next weekend that we are
enjoying now (75 partly sunny).
For all horseplayers/racing fans who would consider themselves \"long suffering\"
(to me the suffering starts anew each day), the Racing Gods are tossing you a
bone: A great day of racing, a huge event, a dramatic question being asked at
the quarter pole, the possibility of witnessing racing history. The only regret
is that you do not have a rival who has yet shown the talent of CC to increase
the drama.
richiebee Wrote:
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> The only regret
> is that you do not have a rival who has yet shown
> the talent of CC to increase
> the drama.
that\'s where the odds come in. the last seven odds-on Belmont runners, and they all looked pretty strong, have all lost.
Real Quiet was 4-5 and Victory Gallop 9-2. those numbers were wrong and everybody knew they were wrong, even those who loved RQ, yet as you walked up to the window they did not and would not change.
at equal odds, the fact that no opponent has shown the talent of CC would leave me no choice but to skip the race. at 3 or 4-5 and 10-1 ish, however, I will take the chance that one of the runners will have the talent of CC at the distance. as Jerry always says, these horses speed up and slow down.
but do me a favor, Richie. I just watched Social Inclusion\'s morning work, and for a second there could picture him forgetting to quit going a mile and a half. if I post anything positive on SI within the next week, anything that leads you to believe I might actually bet the horse, could you please stage an intervention.
Michael D. Wrote:
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> richiebee Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > The only regret
> > is that you do not have a rival who has yet
> shown
> > the talent of CC to increase
> > the drama.
>
>
> that\'s where the odds come in. the last seven
> odds-on Belmont runners, and they all looked
> pretty strong, have all lost.
>
> Real Quiet was 4-5 and Victory Gallop 9-2. those
> numbers were wrong and everybody knew they were
> wrong, even those who loved RQ, yet as you walked
> up to the window they did not and would not
> change.
>
> at equal odds, the fact that no opponent has shown
> the talent of CC would leave me no choice but to
> skip the race. at 3 or 4-5 and 10-1 ish, however,
> I will take the chance that one of the runners
> will have the talent of CC at the distance. as
> Jerry always says, these horses speed up and slow
> down.
>
> but do me a favor, Richie. I just watched Social
> Inclusion\'s morning work, and for a second there
> could picture him forgetting to quit going a mile
> and a half. if I post anything positive on SI
> within the next week, anything that leads you to
> believe I might actually bet the horse, could you
> please stage an intervention.
Michael:
With regards to that intervention, I tried it in Baltimore to no avail. I
recommended tossing him as a second favorite in the Preakness. If he goes in
the Belmont he might be double digit odds. There are a lot of bright guys on
this board who have liked him all winter/spring. (If you can sort through all
of the Sherman dicta and the anti TG posts on the other board, you will also
find that SI had lots of support over there).
As a second favorite in Baltimore he offered no value; I would be less
disapproving if he is 12/1 or so at Belmont, even though (a) I have no reason
to believe SI has been properly prepared for 12 furlongs and (b) my cheat
sheet shows that since 2000, no runner has skipped the Derby, run in the
Preakness and won the Belmont (to be fair I do not know how many runners fit
this profile).