the hottest day of racing I\'ve ever experienced
120,000 screaming sweaty New Yorkers silenced in moments when the horse was pulled up, an event still never fully explained.
Of all the conspiracy theories and inside jobs in our sport, that event stands out. The money that was made by somebody by having BB finish last would be astounding, yet nobody ever really investigated that. I wonder if Desormeaux has some stash of gold bars buried in the bayou somewhere...
also, trying to leave Belmont afterwards on the LIRR was a crush like an English soccer match of the old days, seriously frightening
so no, I will stay home for this Belmont Day, as much as I have enjoyed watching CC win out here in California. BTW, the Santa Anita Derby Day is the best deal in horseracing. Beautiful views with a big crowd, and reasonable prices...
At least 90% of the people who come to this site did not have BB on top on a single ticket. At least half didn\'t use him at all.
And none of us used the winner.
I lucked out and didn\'t go that day. Stayed home to avoid the heat and humidity and at 12:30PM, ESPN showed a live shot of Big Brown entering the detention barn. You could see him in the stall,he was absolutely flipping out and continued to do so. When Rick walked him over to the paddock, Big Brown was not even sweating since he completely sweated out in the detention barn. The body language of Rick and the stable team was dreadful - shoulders sagging, heads down. They knew he left his energy in the detention barn and had nothing left even though the race had not been run. The horse was beaten already.
In August that year, Wayne Lukas gave a presentation at the National Museum of Racing one night. He said half the 2YOs he led over had no chance. They lost their race in the detention barn and how is the public being protected?
BB was a beaten horse by the head of the stretch. Desormeaux did the right thing. Something was wrong with the horse and he was protecting him. Personally, I think it was the steroids off but I\'m guessing. It could have been any number of things. As far as Kent or anyone cashing in on the DNF, I know of no wager, or no wager anyone of any means would make on which horse would finish last. At a mile and half for 3yos in this country, it could have easily been a tie.
BB\'s Belmont failure could be attributed to any of the following: bad feet,
exhausted horse, reaction to steroid withdrawal, but do not forget the interview
Kenny Mayne did with Michael Iavarone at the Breeders Cup later that year. According
to Iavarone:
\"The morning of the Belmont Stakes, I had been woken up around 10AM. There was a
knock on my door and there were several NYPD detectives. They asked me to come
outside because they didn\'t want to talk to me in front of my family. They told
me there had been a serious death threat lodged against me, basically from
Tallahasee, Florida from an extremist saying that if anything should happen to
Big Brown in the race, myself and my family were not safe. Basically I was
followed by eight or nine New York detectives all day, everywhere I went...\"
Oh, beg to differ with you here
the 2008 Belmont had a 9 horse field, with BB an overwhelming favorite, went off at 1:4
If you knew BB would not finish in the top 4 you could easily make a major score with the exotics. Look at the payouts for the pick 4, pick 6 or probably the best vehicle, vertical wagers. The superfecta paid over 48k that day, which is huge with such a small field. The folks on this board are great strategic handicappers, and would have constructed wagers that would have been quite lucrative.
Much of the discussion on this board is by guys who want to \"beat\" Chrome and make a huge score. That is exactly what happened in 2008 at Belmont, and I think it\'s smells pretty fishy. My brother and I were dazed by the whole thing, most of the crowd was confused about what happened to the horse, thinking he was injured. If people had known he was just fine, there would have been a riot.
I also disagree about BB being \"finished\". He was in 3rd place with 1/2 mile to go, and was eased up by Desormeaux, taken out of any chance of a first four placing. He had NO physical reason for this! If a jock does this in a normal race on a weekend at your local track, he had better have a real explanation, or he gets suspended. This occurrence in a triple crown race is unprecedented as far as I can tell, particularly with amount of money on the line.
I have never cashed a ticket on the Kentucky Derby in 15 years of trying, and have had only very minor success in the Preakness. But the Belmont is a different story since I hit with Lemon Drop Kid back in 1999 at $60+ to win. I even hit Birdstone.
I really like Intense Holiday this year if he goes, he has more early speed than he\'s given credit for and I think he would have won the Derby if he\'d have drawn a more inside post than the 16. He got out great but ran super wide on both turns and finished 8th or so and still got a good number as I\'m sure the sheets show.
To me, he fits the profile of a Belmont winner. Not too far out of it early and not a one dimensional deep closer but able to run all day.
That\'s my opinion 2 1/2 weeks out.
Ace
PS- PDub I might be at Santa Anita that day if you\'re there we should try to meet again(I couldn\'t find you last time a couple years ago). I\'m an Angels season ticket holder so I\'ll excuse your A\'s hat.
Big Brown was part of the IEAH ponzi scheme. As the article relates, \"The ride ended with Big Brown.\"
http://deadspin.com/how-big-browns-people-nearly-pulled-off-horse-racings-504679834
aceriley Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I have never cashed a ticket on the Kentucky Derby
> in 15 years of trying, and have had only very
> minor success in the Preakness. But the Belmont is
> a different story since I hit with Lemon Drop Kid
> back in 1999 at $60+ to win. I even hit
> Birdstone.
>
> I really like Intense Holiday this year if he
> goes, he has more early speed than he\'s given
> credit for and I think he would have won the Derby
> if he\'d have drawn a more inside post than the 16.
> He got out great but ran super wide on both turns
> and finished 8th or so and still got a good number
> as I\'m sure the sheets show.
>
> To me, he fits the profile of a Belmont winner.
> Not too far out of it early and not a one
> dimensional deep closer but able to run all day.
>
> That\'s my opinion 2 1/2 weeks out.
>
> Ace
>
> PS- PDub I might be at Santa Anita that day if
> you\'re there we should try to meet again(I
> couldn\'t find you last time a couple years ago).
> I\'m an Angels season ticket holder so I\'ll excuse
> your A\'s hat.
Ace,
The next time I\'m heading down south will be for the Breeders\' Cup. If you\'re going we\'ll try again.
Or, you can invite me to watch the A\'s beat......I mean play the Angels. Baseball and DelMar????
Big Brown had quarter crack problems, and they surfaced again leading up to the Belmont. Watch the replay of the race. He was obviously uncomfortable the first time by and heading into the first turn. When Kent asked him on the second turn the colt had nothing. He asked him again, nothing. Beating the hell out of him at that point would have accomplished nothing. I had no problem with him pulling up.
It wasn\'t hard coming up with a reason to bet against BB that day. The hard part was coming up with DA Tara. I know i didn\'t.
Watch the replay. Big Brown was, in the words of Tom Durkin, plummeting. Despite Desormeaux\'s encouragement, most of the field had run by him before they even straightened the stretch. He was stopping. Desormeaux knew he had no chance of hitting the board. Why beat a dead horse? I hadn\'t heard about the Iavarone death threats. Maybe that had something to do with his being eased but, to my eye, the horse offered absolutely no challenge to the rest of the field when he was asked.
I think the fix was in.
Brown broke well the jock had his feet in the dash from the break. Horse tossed his head and was fighting the jock until entering the first turn.
If my memory is correct, the police believed PETA or someone like that likely sent the threatening anonymous letter that included death threats to Ivarone, his family and Dutrow should something bad happen to Big Brown. While they had to take the threats very seriously -- hard to imagine even Desormeaux would throw this particular race. I say BS. Death threats -- true. Connections threw the race -- don\'t buy it.
He was rank and Desormeaux was trying to rate him. At a mile and half you can\'t let your horse run off like Big Brown wanted to. Rank horses never do well in the Belmont, not to mention most any other race around 2 turns.
The connections of Big Brown fixed the Belmont to lose? Please...
Do you really think they would throw away winning the triple crown for a bet?
How much do you think BB\'s stud value would have been if he wins the Belmont, becomes the first triple crown winner in 35 years and is immediately retired? I bet at least twice as much as what it turned out to be. And he can cover what, 100-150 Mares a season and they can keep collecting that stud fee for 3 years until we see any offspring race.
And how much do you think they could have made by betting (or in this case not betting) the colt?
Sheer rubbish. No way they would fix the race to lose. Someone else could try, but no way the connections would. And the colt was under 24 hour surveillance.
He couldn\'t handle the stress of two big efforts leading up to the Belmont. For that matter no one has, or at least no one has won all 3, for 30 plus years. Simple as that.
Kent-- that\'s EXACTLY what most of us here did with that Belmont. The problem was that going in D\'Tara was impossible. I think he might have been the only horse I threw out completely other than BB.
And by the way, he was still impossible coming out. If anyone trained him but Zito, who turned out to be the king of getting horses to run off non-efforts in big races. But one reason we know that is-- D\'Tara.
I always suspected that your number for Da\'Tara for his previous performance at Pimlico was too slow due to a rail bias.
I was rooting against Big Brown because his connections were among the most scumiest in all of the racing industry. That\'s saying something.
Smith kent,
Sorry as this is gonna sound very condescending, but if u believe what u wrote u may not be ready for this board.
It didn\'t take a lot of experience to see big brown was a finished horse after 3/4 of a mile. Desmormeaux did nothing wrong. Obvious to any regular horse race watcher.
As for scores, it wasn\'t easy to have the winner. Most on this board seldom hit the \"all button\" and need a reason to bet a horse. D\'Tara was a can of shit before and after the Belmont. Hard to use. Many of us used the horses that ran 2-3-4 or even 2-3-4-5-6.
Tough winner to have.
I don\'t think this years Belmont is comparable at all to that one. First off, as much as I do believe chrome has been the best horse before and after the last two races, he faces a much better field than big brown did. If they all show up, chrome is 50/50 at best to win. Big brown ran in the 4 path all the way around to crush the derby field and was asked for about 1/8th of a mile to crush the Preakness field. He seemed light years ahead of his competition. Chrome is better than his competition but even his biggest supporters wouldn\'t say light years. Secondly, chrome won\'t be 1-4 or close to it. Tonalist, wicked strong, danza, and commanding curve all HAVE TO go off single digit odds IMO. That means chrome can\'t be lower than 4-5. Lastly, we don\'t have the x fsctors that big brown had. He had steroids off, bad feet, plus normal \"triple crown wear and tear\" bounce, along with being trained by a move up trainer who may or may not try or get away with something regarding drug on Belmont day. All those fsctors made big brown a potential \"off the board\" candidate, if he didn\'t whistle. With chrome, he may not get the distance or he may have emptied out in the Preakness but those other factors don\'t exist. I would be very surprised if he doesn\'t have a representative showing in the Belmont. (Meaning on the board somewhere). I don\'t think playing him to collapse and be out of the money vertically is the way to go. Personally prefer a horizontal play keying others to win. Tonalist and wicked strong as my choices.
all you folks are so suspicious here about the drug use in horses, analyzing the data to show who is suspicious- and with good cause
Yet in that Belmont, the horse was stopped by the actions of his jockey, in quite a mysterious way, never fully explained to the betting public
Given the seediness of his owners and trainer, acknowledged steroid using, etc, you HAVE to concede the possibility that it was a fixed result.
Sure, owning a triple crown horse would be lucrative, but this outfit obviously was playing a different game than we do- that Deadspin article is shocking
I DO think I will play some backups to CC in the big race, just to take into account the murkiness of our game when there is so much money on the line, as well as it may just be too much for him to pull it off.
I\'m also kinda suspicious of Ill Have Another being abruptly pulled from the Belmont a couple of years ago, then abruptly being sold to Japanese owners.
Sometimes things in racing are not as they first seem...
smith,
Lot of us on the board are suspicious of 2 trainers who have been suspended 100 times combined. When you have Graham Motion with over 10,000 starts and no drug violations that\'s a big disparity.
If you watch the replay, its obviously Kent starting asking the horse just prior to the mile mark. He asked him and nothing, asked him again and nothing again, so it appears at just after midpoint of the race Brown had nothing.
Even as they headed into the first turn, Brown moved way too far off the rail almost as if he knew where Kent wanted him to go, but the legs didn\'t cooperate. If Desormeaux knew that he had plenty in the tank, he could have sat patiently around the turn and then move to the outside. And why not, Brown had been so dominant most players wouldn\'t care if the horse lost a little ground in a 1 1/2 mile race.
I\'ve always thought horses that can\'t make a tight turn are showing signs of being tired, even though the race was 20 seconds old and the turns are so sweeping at Belmont. It\'s also possible Brown was a little rank early, throwing is head early on and the turn just came up faster than expected.
I was thrilled that Brown was beaten, I was also thrilled when O\'Neill scratched IHA prior to the Belmont.
Dutrow or O\'Neill as the winner of the Triple Crown would have been disgusting.
At least if Chrome pulls it off, the history of Sherman hasn\'t been overshadowed by chronic suspensions due to medications.
I\'m just speculating about everything here except the idea that horse racing\'s next Triple Crown winner should come from a barn with connections that haven\'t been marred in cheating for years and years and years. FWIW.
Maybe in a Dick Francis novel.
On the subject of unabashed speculation. What are we to think when Mr. Bad Example Dutrow goes toe-to-toe with the clueless clowns for $20M. My guess is incompetence trumps impropriety. Clowns lose. Due process, transparency, intrigue, conspiracy I know so little on the legal subject, all I can do is speculate. But I will stop short of asserting truth based on my imagination.
a I had cashed nicely on Big Brown in the Derby so I booked a trip for the Belmont even getting the last grandstand seats through NYRA at the top of the stretch before they quickly sold out. It was my first visit back to NY since 1989, I had worked and lived at Belmont for several meets in the late Eighties. I remember the heat was stifling and they closed off the bathrooms after shutting off the water, What a disaster, then Big Brown pulls up right in front of our eyes and I say to the wife let\'s get out of here. Luckily I knew to avoid the Belmont train back to the city and we walked a short 15 minutes to the Jamaica/Queens line avoiding the crush. It was my only winning move of the day.
We did enjoy the city the next day and seeing the hole that was the World Trade Center was a moving reminder that horse racing whether winning or losing is only a game.
I have a long and sad story to tell about that Belmont, but not now.
Belmont and NY changed a lot between 1989 and 2008. In the old days you could pretty much smoke up anywhere, a la the staircases up by the blue seats in Ranger games. Man, I remember my first time up in the blue seats like it was yesterday. I couldn\'t believe people acted so brazenly, in such an obvious place.
Right before the gates opened for the \'89 Belmont, Bags called me and took down a huge hit over the phone.
I didn\'t dream to misbehave like that when I went to the Belmont my one and only time, the time I went to see Charismatic win it all.
There used to be a web forum back then based off the bloodhorse, it\'s not there anymore, but I\'d bet some of those guys found their way here, even if they just watch in silence now.
Some guys on that forum loved Lemon Drop Kid that day. I\'d done some good damage earlier on the card, think I won about $400, laugh all you want, but back in 1999, with her not working and me working part-time, four hundred bucks was a lot of money. It made our life together a little easier for a few weeks.
I\'d won mostly on the filly turf race that\'s now the Just A Game, I think. This whole TG form-cycle thing had me at hello, it seemed to work even better, for me anyway, in turf races.
My buddy suggested to me that Vision and Verse had a chance to at least run in there at 55-1. I patiently explained to him how the Illinois Derby was a total dud as a Belmont prep race. Upon my stellar recommendation, we tossed him.
We made very small win bets on LDK and boxed him in exactas and tris with Charismatic and some thing other than Vision and Verse. At least we got the win money, but we still get queasy thinking about what might have been had I not haughtily dismissed Vision and Verse.
One of these days we\'re going to come up with some ridiculous reason to like something as ridiculous as Da Tara and we\'re going to cash in like pirates. No. seriously........
smithkent Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Yet in that Belmont, the horse was stopped by the
> actions of his jockey, in quite a mysterious way,
> never fully explained to the betting public
>
> Given the seediness of his owners and trainer,
> acknowledged steroid using, etc, you HAVE to
> concede the possibility that it was a fixed
> result.
>
> Sure, owning a triple crown horse would be
> lucrative, but this outfit obviously was playing a
> different game than we do- that Deadspin article
> is shocking
>
> I DO think I will play some backups to CC in the
> big race, just to take into account the murkiness
> of our game when there is so much money on the
> line, as well as it may just be too much for him
> to pull it off.
>
> I\'m also kinda suspicious of Ill Have Another
> being abruptly pulled from the Belmont a couple of
> years ago, then abruptly being sold to Japanese
> owners.
>
> Sometimes things in racing are not as they first
> seem...
Big Brown, suspicious...I\'ll Have Another, suspicious.
Cal Chrome, need alternate / cover bets, in case \"they\"
do something...
I\'ll ask you the same thing I ask my brother, who
fervently studies the faces of a horse\'s connections,
looking for \"something suspicious\":
If cheating is SO rampant -- even at the highest levels --
why do you still bet on horses?
The same reason people still smoke. It feels good even though you know it\'s bad for you.
Right.
Does look odd. Could it be something with the horse, he did an Intense Holiday into the #3 several jumps earlier. He didn\'t get taken down! Looked a winner until #7 ran by. Curious?
The chart comments point out he was lugging in the last 40 yds. Assume you needed him to win. Scheiskopf! Overall Centano does a good job IMO.