On why CC can\'t win the Belmont
Yes, visually he had to work more this time, since SI moved early
But that horse WANTS to win, a quality that isn\'t easily quantitated
I can name 13 others who also did since 1978.
So you\'re saying all horses have the exact same desire to win?? Just asking.
I\'m saying horses that win the first two legs of the TC are treated like more than racehorses. For three weeks.
If all the potential Belmont staters decide to go, CC will face the toughest bunch yet.
Saw him more tired coming off after this race which was fast.CC made a couple of runs while being fully extended this time.Belmont can be epic if CC is tackled by Tonalist,Wicked Strong, Danza,Commissioner as they all act like 12f types.
Guessing Rosario rides Tonalist over Ride On Curlin,if he goes.
TGJB Wrote:
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> I\'m saying horses that win the first two legs of
> the TC are treated like more than racehorses. For
> three weeks.
Got it, fair enough.
I\'ve got such mixed feelings about it, I definitely respect what he has done the past 2 races and thought the \"slow\" tag he was getting for his Derby from most others was ridiculous.
But even with TG giving him a new top, it wasn\'t yet a negative number and seemed to make the achievement less impressive than Big Brown, Barbaro, even Rachel, etc.
I\'m not sure if he ran a negative number today, you can be sure all the other folks who didn\'t seem to consider the wind or the track at the Derby are going to score this race as a huge improvement. While visually impressive, the fact that Ride On Curlin was the one pressuring him coming for home (after Social Inclusion likely left a lot of his race on the track during the warmup) doesn\'t exactly speak volumes about the field he beat today.
I\'m not sure what the deal with Kid Cruz was, not having the published workouts (was that ever explained?), but with he and SI off their games today, ARod having the trip problem and probably not wanting this distance anyway, this field he beat was just a bunch of lifetime 2s.
But I am impressed with what he\'s been able to do so far. He won at Churchill despite apparently not liking the surface at all. He won here sitting off a much more honest pace and repelling what looked like it might be a serious contender entering the stretch. He does everything right and seems to create his own luck. With so many of the horses facing him in the Belmont that can run negative numbers being closers, if he has one more zero in him he just might pull it off.
Tough to say given three of last four coming in were turf races, but Sir Barton went in 1:43 and 3, Preakness went in 1:54 and 4. On paper, that looks good, difference for final 1/8th being 11 and change between the two, but like I said, a long time went by between those two races, and would guess in all these big races, conditions might be more likely to change as it\'s closer to sundown, but again, all a guess and will let the experts such as TGJB figure that out. Certainly don\'t think anything behind him missed the w because of trouble - didn\'t look that close to me, he pretty much ran away and hid and won it, again, in the neighborhood of the 1/4 pole.
Couple of things come to mind.
One is that this horse seems a little more able to make his own trip than a lot of the others who have been in this position, and in a race like the Belmont that would seem to be a positive.
Second is that years (I think) ago TGJB (I think, again, let\'s not hold my memory to court-of-law standards after long day of drinking and gambling) suggested that if we did someday get a Triple Crown winner, it would likely be from something that hadn\'t run especially fast all along, I\'d guess the theory being you\'d need a horse who hadn\'t run the sort of monstrous numbers that would leave it vulnerable in early June.
Again, no idea what 1:54 and 4 means vs. today\'s actual track speed, certainly possible it\'s a knock-out number in the negative 1 or more range, but if it\'s another 0 or so, I\'d think this horse might be more likely to pull it off than all us T-generates aching to double-fist against him at Belmont care to believe.
My problem with CC getting a -1 is that means ROC got at least a -1, maybe even a -2. I\'m not saying that\'s impossible for him to have that large an improvement, just would be pretty unusual off that kind of pattern.
But yes, it likely is much better for his TC prospects if he did just do something like pair a zero, there may be something left in the tank.
CC reminds me of Real Quiet, heavily raced, got good late at two. As to Chach\'s point, Privman once said something similar about Funny Cide-- he can make his own trip.
Yeah, given 3 and change seems to be about it for Ride On Curlin agree it\'s tough to see him at 0 or less here off short rest, unless you think the Derby chaos cost him significantly, but that seems a reach...on the other hand I keep thinking the raw 1:54 and 4 seems pretty quick and he was at least 2 wide all the way around....
Given the gaps it\'s likely top two ran zeros, issue will be whether it\'s better.
Funny Cide was rank and over the top, he ran off in his last 3 furlong work days before the Belmont, was washy in the post parade, would not relax for Santos and was on the engine for the race. Credible third and behind a rested and bred for the distance Empire Maker and Ten Most Wanted who went on the capture the Travers that year. Look for any any bloom of the rose for CC as a tell.
As an aside, just watched the NBC broadcast replay after being at Gulfstream Park today. Did anyone notice in the lead out form the infield CC was sporting major wood. No kidding, maybe it was the filly in the race that got his attention.
The last time I saw that was in 1981 at Oaklawn Park, the horse was names Belle\'s Ruler and ran third to Temperance Hill in the Razorback Handicap. My buddies with me at the time got a good chuckle and we still have a laugh over it to this day.
My wife says a good name for a racehorse would be \"Morning Wood\". Don\'t know if that would get past the Jockey Club but \"Drop Your Drawers\" did so one never knows.
Rewatched the Preakness.
CC didn\'t break a sweat.
CC walked back during the post race interviews like he had just left his stall for a stroll.
If nothing untoward happens in the next few weeks, he might be the one.
Thanks for pointing that out. My wife said CC did the same thing in the paddock at Churchill and it was pointed out verbally by the commentators. Looks like he certainly has a career after racing.
rhagood Wrote:
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> As an aside, just watched the NBC broadcast replay
> after being at Gulfstream Park today. Did anyone
> notice in the lead out form the infield CC was
> sporting major wood.
Thanks, I couldn\'t figure out what \"h on\" meant in
Cal Chrome\'s line in the race chart equipment changes.
Makes sense.
Ride on curlin ran his eye balls out. That horse will never run that fast again the rest of his career imo. As far as thoro numbers, I definitely think chrome will be in the negative 1 territory. He demolished the field with horses like inclusion, Cruz who have run big numbers before. I could definitely see Curlin running a zero even though I didn\'t like him at all yesterday. Ran fast as a two year old. Never really got a great trip in his prep races.
CC gets a Beyer of 105 virtually pairing his SF and SA Derby which equal app TG neg -1, where I\'ve had him all along.
....and as mentioned, the connections of CC threatening to NOT run in Belmont without nasal strip.CC reportedly undefeated since adding nasal strip 6 races ago.
Miff-- a) you\'re using Beyers to verify your figures, and b) just that one? Weren\'t you the guy who said all of us should be making the Derby slower, by the clock?
This one is going to be a figure maker\'s nightmare. Won\'t know for sure until I look but again a long time after the closest dirt route, possible drying out track. Except this time you have the second horse running a new top and the ones behind him probably all running well off their tops, making all the figure histories of limited usefulness. Much tougher to do than the Derby figures.
Beyer and TF already have CC at TG -1 and TG -1.5. Your take very different, as day was called perfect for id\'ing track speed by one, no word if Beyer had any issue.
Derby was slow, you can give it any fig you wish, clock at 2.03.66 that day a great mystery relative to all other races run.Wind only possibility after track super publicly stated he was aware of moisture and added more liberally.
No reply from guru of track speed yet re derby.
Maybe NYRA should rename the Belmont Stakes the Woody Memorial.
Mike-- anyone who thinks Preakness day is perfect for identifying track speed is living on another planet, if they mean the speed stayed the same all day. It got faster as the day went on-- but that still doesn\'t help with the Preakness because you can\'t tell whether it kept getting faster after the Sir Barton, and if so how much. And for reasons sated before the Preakness horses are little help.
Right now I\'m giving the winner a neg 2, but I\'ll be reviewing this one every time one runs back.
JB,
I could never read you. You scoffed at my conversion to TG neg -1 or -1.5 from other services then come up with TG neg -2. Seems you are determinded to get CC to bounce like a spaulding in the Belmont.
Since you like to spar, a drink that CC went forward on Rags from his 7.25 on their stuff...dont laugh.
Mike
How about I take 2 points forward or more on Ragozin, YOU take under. For a house.
And it\'s Spauldeen, you know that.
I didn\'t scoff at the fig, just at using Beyer to back it up, and just selected Beyer, not the Derby. I said from the start this one was going to be a bitch. It\'s a guess within a range.
SI gets the worst looking 1 in history.
JB,
Rags a tough read for me, I do not have anywhere near the handle, pre fig published, as I do on TG/Beyer/TF.
The ugly TG 1 for SI is a by product of the methodology which,as you know,I believe is overweight in valuing ground loss in the whole number.That fig,imo,is earned by slaving off the winner\'s. SI\'s fig and performance in the Wood was really good, his Preakness not even close, yet only TG .5 difference.
..ugly
Mike
Jake has only 3 Derby horses to work with, and by their rules has to tie the figure to the rest of the day. He can\'t go off the Derby horses, has to have the race much better. Will be 4 or better for the winner.
They had the top two coming in not having come close to their 2yo tops.
If they were to agree with the general consensus, the fig would be a Rags 1.5 to 2, making it like a 5 point move up or like 8-10 lengths better.
Fwiw,CC was pressed down on hard,ran his fastest race ever imo, as you have it.Agent pal said Rosario, on ROC, thought he \"had\" CC after they straightened into the stretch, but CC a \"good horse\"
\"And it\'s Spauldeen, you know that\"
Yes,old brain, its the Spalding company made it, can still see that scripted on the pink sucker...50+years ago for me!
miff Wrote:
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> \"And it\'s Spauldeen, you know that\"
>
> Yes,old brain, its the Spalding company made it,
> can still see that scripted on the pink
> sucker...50+years ago for me!
Ah, but nobody remembers the \"Pennsy Pinkie\", which some preferred over the
\"Spaldeen\" for stickball purposes.
Lots of variations on a theme when it came to stickball; in our neighborhood we
played with a tennis ball and a conventional baseball bat; the sound of bat on
tennis ball was rather pleasing when the ball was well struck.
richiebee Wrote:
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> miff Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > \"And it\'s Spauldeen, you know that\"
> >
> > Yes,old brain, its the Spalding company made
> it,
> > can still see that scripted on the pink
> > sucker...50+years ago for me!
>
>
> Ah, but nobody remembers the \"Pennsy Pinkie\",
> which some preferred over the
> \"Spaldeen\" for stickball purposes.
>
> Lots of variations on a theme when it came to
> stickball; in our neighborhood we
> played with a tennis ball and a conventional
> baseball bat; the sound of bat on
> tennis ball was rather pleasing when the ball was
> well struck.
Not as thrilling as when a well struck Spauldeen crashed through a window in our courtyard.
Sounds like right out of James \"Red\" Spader\'s mouth.