If he wins he needs to begin getting some respect. If he doesn\'t then everyone was right. Hoping for a clean race and a safe trip for all.
Hopefully he finally gets some respect.
Or you\'ll read about excuses for the ripped up tickets.
That was another whipping he laid on them.
This is one nice horse.
The last time everyone was right was sometime back in the days of King Arthur.
I agree. He hadn\'t even pulled up and I got a text saying Tonalist will Kill Him in the Belmont. He might but right now this horse has won 3 Grade Ones in a row by open lengths. He is a very good athlete and makes his own trip. Before he is discounted at the Belmont distance remember Bold Forbes got there and this horse might be the only speed in the race.....
No intent on rubbing it in here. There were people who wisely went against the grain and tried to beat him at that price. Just take the high road and no excuses when he wins!!!
At least one horse had an excuse. Whether it made a difference is anyone\'s guess.
In other news, the great Tycoon Cat just won at MTH with a furious late rally. Tail flip included.
Certainly would have been second, at worst. bbb
If u are talking social inclusion, he got beat 8 lengths. Forget it.
Trainer and jockey both need to go. U can\'t get a horse off a 6 week layoff to go classic distances with 3 furlong breezes. No bottom (again). Getting out of gate 5th and getting a wide trip means Contreras needs to go.
Chrome way the best of this crop. Very good run by ride on curlin. Borel having an ugly triple crown. Dead last beaten 30 lengths, after stupidly pressing the pace, a race after he made a left hand turn out of the gate and took ride on curlin to last.
Not SI. Arod.
TGJB Wrote:
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> Not SI. Arod.
I\'m not home, so can\'t watch replays until tomorrow.
But its hard to imagine that whatever excuse he may have had would have made a difference in the top slot.
Well said. Holding your composure is part of the deal, and right now SI is struggling with this.
Everyone wins with a BIG Belmont Day. Racing stays relevant nationally for 3 more weeks and all of California will be watching. There has been a lot of good analysis and opinion on this Board over the last 6 weeks and now there will be time for about 3 weeks more.
#keepingitclassy
Derby ride aside no way that was Borel\'s decision to send today, more likely the clueless owner.
Filly took Bayern out straight away from the gate, then she backs into ARod after insanely prompting the pace, finishes last. Brilliant decision by the owner to run here - moves the filly from Baffert, then takes out his colt.
According to the Herd Whisperer, ARod was just going to join up with Social Inclusion and buddy with him to the wire without passing...which he did anyway.
Tell the Herd Wisperer that if GAR doesn\'t get stopped at the 5/16 pole he runs over SI by a pole.
No thanks, you can tell him.
Unfortunately, we\'ll never know thanks to the filly. JC was on a roll today.
Borel was just getting even with Castellano for the stuff that went down in the breeders cup a few years ago.
Mike, did you read that about this race or just making an assumption?
Small,
If you mean GAR getting stopped,you can\'t miss it if you just follow him all the way approaching the far turn.
Mike
But where do you get Thomas suggesting that SI beats Rod or vise versa?
\"According to the Herd Whisperer, ARod was just going to join up with Social Inclusion and buddy with him to the wire without passing...which he did anyway\"
FWIW, here is the lead-in, and conclusion, from Kerry Thomas\'s Derby analysis on the General:
\"With four victories and three seconds in seven lifetime starts, General a Rod is a very good equine athlete. But almost every year we
bestow at least one of the Derby horses with the dreaded "buddy up" label. General a Rod is one of those horses...
...In the stretch of the Besilu Florida Derby (G1), there was a point where Wildcat Red broke his focus from General a Rod and
transferred it to the looming challenge on the rail from Constitution. Those two colts hooked up in a fierce space battle. General a Rod
had an opportunity there to advance on a pair of horses locked in battle. Instead of going forward, General a Rod drifted laterally. This
is not a natural leader.
General a Rod's energy burn is low, and that helps him distance-wise, but in order to win the Derby he will need to develop a killer
instinct that he has not yet shown. There will be plenty of high-dynamic horses for him to attach to in this field. We think he is going to
be looking for a buddy in the Derby, and that is rarely the path to the winner's circle.\"
Maybe credible, maybe not. Lots of good horses run up the track in the TC, for seemingly inexplicable reasons. I considered this a negative despite the horse\'s competitive figures (earned by running along, not up to, competitive horses) - he checked all the boxes pre-Derby, no? Reasonable play for underneath in these races given the expected trips (taken off the pace), but not for the win.
Please. Meanwhile, back on earth...
Thank you Jerry
TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Please. Meanwhile, back on earth...
Why do you say this Jerry??
Horses are machines?
You\'re better than that. Why the need to discredit a guy that has a better Derby record than many using your product??
You sure of that? The Dosage guys used to make some amazing claims. No reason it would work on the TC and not the 5th at Suffolk.
Not sure what race you were watching. Ring Weekend was making a better move and was stopped just as badly. Neither one was running in the money.
General A-Rod finished right about where he was supposed to. The horse is way over the top....had to be whipped out of the gate to get position.
He\'ll go in the Belmont and burn more money.
Good Luck,
Joe B
Jimbo:
Toss SI in the Belmont at your own peril. Not a bad effort by a lightly raced 3 yo who had not raced in 7 weeks and missed a prep and training. Now he\'s had his prep.
Good Luck,
Joe B
I wouldn\'t go anywhere near SI in the Belmont, but I don\'t think he will be in the race anyway. He\'s a miler IMO. No shot at 12 furlongs.
People will be playing Commanding Curve in the Belmont if he makes it to the race. Training really well, but I don\'t think he is a Belmont colt either.
A colt like Ride on Curlin or General A-Rod more the Belmont type IMO. Grinder sort with a bit of tactical speed. Although if I owned General A-Rod he would get 30 days off right now and be pointed for the late summer stakes races.
Can\'t take anything away for winner Chrome, again. Very smart ride by the Jock. Broke well, moved out to the 5 path, let the speed sort itself out and assumed outside stalking trip, again. Heard lot\'s being said about how Chrome was not all out and could have went around again, but I don\'t agree. I think that\'s about as fast as he can finish and it was plenty fast enough anyway.
I keyed ROC and SI in 1st & 2nd, 1st and 3rd, and my two large bet tickets had Chrome off the board. Used Kid Cruz and the Filly stronger than the rest of the field with my top 2. Had no tickets with Chrome on top so didn\'t cash anything on Preakness. Would still play it the same way all over again, but hats off to the winner, again. I don\'t see how anyone can possibly take anything away from him as he makes his trip and beats them all.
With that being said, and maybe I\'m just stubborn, but I am still hoping to go All In against Chrome winning the Belmont. Although I think I am done hoping someone will get it and try to box him in and make him win with something other than an outside stalking or front running trip.
With all due respect, on earth, General a Rod runs exactly as Thomas described. He\'s not real keen on passing horses. The further in class he rises, the more pronounced this bad habit becomes.
The filly didn\'t shut him off yesterday. There was a hole between her and Ring Weekend, but he didn\'t attack it when it was open. She drifted into his path a little thereafter, but that\'s just horse racing.
MJ
What did you like about ROC going into yesterday?
Training well?
His sheet to me said it\'s now or never for a forward move, and he was galloping so well and training like he was sitting on a good race. Figured to get a good set up stalking whatever happened in front of him. I liked SI as well but was a little worried about him not getting the distance if he did the work on Chrome early. Surprised at tactics employed by the connections to take back early as I thought either SI or Bayern would glue themselves outside of Chrome nose to nose and try to pin him inside.
Was very surprised by the ride on the Filly to. Yuk.
Well then Castellano has the same problem as the horse because he slammed on the breaks too.
MJ:
Same thinking by the public last year allowed Malice to pay 15-1.He was anything but a grinder.
Good Luck,
Joe B
MJ,
Respect your opinion, but if u are looking for a way for chrome to get beat, hoping for a boxed in trip is going to be fruitless. And a really poor bet. He didn\'t get boxed in a 19 horse cavalry charge. He didn\'t get boxed in a Preakness race with an inside post and lots of speed horses. He isn\'t going to get boxed in a slow paced, wide sweeping turns, 1.5 mile race. He has too much tactical speed and has too many gears. Espinoza literally starts and stops on him to get position. The earlyish move by social inclusion approaching the turn forced Espinozas hand a bit early and for most horses this would have resulted in being caught late. Instead he came home in 19. Serious race horse time.
Not saying that betting against him in the Belmont might not be the play, but if so it won\'t be because I am hoping he gets a bad trip. He is way too tactical for that to happen and the odds of it happening are tiny. The field in the Belmont will be tougher. Much tougher. If they all come. Tonalist is the top contender IMO but of course is going to be a wise guy horse. But danza and commanding curve are runners. And yes Joe B, if I could get 15-1 on social inclusion I would take it. As much as I think the trainer is a fool and the jockey not much better, he could finally get the relaxed type lead he got at gulfstream in a 1.5 mile race with few speed horses. And that economic stride he showed that day he could be dangerous at a big price.
But make no mistake, chrome has to stumble and go backwards to lose. All this talk on this board for the last month about so many horses as fast or some even faster, just isn\'t true. Chrome\'s two races prior to the derby and his Preakness are much faster than anybody else in the field, period, with one single exception, the social inclusion perfect trip win at gulf. That has proven out and things like Arod and kid Cruz being as fast are just silly. I leave the derby out of the discussion because as visually impressive as it was, the time was poor by any standard. Hard to gauge the race from a figure perspective.
Good luck
I agree Jimbo. And like I said, I am through trying to beat Chrome hoping someone will box him in. I still want to see him prove he can win if that happens, but I\'m not going to waste anymore money on it.
I would be all in against SI in the Belmont at any price and I don\'t care if the pace projects him to be on the lead by himself with a 50 second half mile time. This colt runs, looks and acts like a miler. Period. Connections made a mistake not to take the money down and some risk off the table when they had the chance, especially if there was still room to be involved with the colt moving forward.
Ah. Sorry, misread your last sentence. Thought u were saying the opposite, that u were going to wager that he gets boxed in again.
As for social inclusion, we will have to agree to disagree. I know gulfstream can elongate distance limitations of speed horses, but social inclusions big race there showed me a horse that can go longer with a good trip. I think he got two bad trips last two races. I can\'t write him off based on those two races. I can\'t say he can go long off those races, but can\'t write him off either. It would have been nice to see how he could have ran without losing it before the race, with a little more than a 3 furlong breeze to prep and with a good trip.
Unfortunately he will have the same trainer and jockey for the Belmont, so like I said, I would need 15-1 or so to take him.
SI Met Mile?
Disagree he\'s a miler. Please put a real jockey on this horse.
Good Luck,
Joe B
TGJB Wrote:
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> You sure of that? The Dosage guys used to make
> some amazing claims. No reason it would work on
> the TC and not the 5th at Suffolk.
You\'re comparing Dosage to the inherent characteristics of a horse??
Dosage is manufactured. Herd instincts aren\'t.
Nobody is saying its the end all to handicapping, but to ignore its existence is silly.
Also, nobody is saying it makes a slow horse beat a fast horse. I mentioned this the last time Thomas was talked about. If we are talking about horses in the same ballpark, ability wise, apparently it can make a difference.
TC horses are in the peak of health, at least most of them. I doubt you can say the same about the 5th at Suffolk.
You are a numbers guy, which is fine. You can choose to ignore it, thats your right. You seem a little defensive about the subject.
Pdub-- both are attempts by humans to analyze the characteristics of horses, both have claims made about their efficacy. I\'m not at all defensive about it, but if it works for one group it should work for all. You are deciding to put \"health\" into the equation-- a) why should it matter, b) who says they\'re all equally healthy, etc. etc....
We don\'t measure characteristics here. We measure performance.
jbelfior Wrote:
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> Disagree he\'s a miler. Please put a real jockey on
> this horse.
>
> Good Luck,
> Joe B
I\'m with Joe here. This horse is not a miler.
Yep that Herd Theory is a different way of looking at things. Thomas Kerry looks at things from a different perspective . He is not number oriented. I like anything that works. Tough thing is finding something that works all the time or at least a lot of the time. Finding that is key.
TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Pdub-- both are attempts by humans to analyze the
> characteristics of horses, both have claims made
> about their efficacy. I\'m not at all defensive
> about it, but if it works for one group it should
> work for all. You are deciding to put \"health\"
> into the equation-- a) why should it matter, b)
> who says they\'re all equally healthy, etc.
> etc....
>
> We don\'t measure characteristics here. We measure
> performance.
JB,
My point was that his method works for horses of equal or comparable ability. Cheap claimers are wildly in and out of form
I would say that Thomas is comparable to a human psychologist. Do you feel psychologists have no value??
Dosage is a manufactured system that is mixed and matched. Herd dynamics obviously isn\'t, and can\'t be qualified. To me that is the difference between those 2 and why I don\'t think you can compare them.
Anyways....this is a forum about numbers and patterns. I\'ll leave it be. Just my 2 cents.
I don\'t think a different jockey will make a difference with this one. And we can agree to disagree. But I\'ve seen him run enough now to say I\'m pretty sure he\'s a miler who may get up to 1 1/8 if everything breaks right for him. But I don\'t see him getting a 1 1/2 against a quality field no matter what. Guess that puts me in the minority here, but so be it. His connections think he can get 1 1/2 and have already announced they plan to run him 3 weeks from now. So if he makes the race (which I put at 50/50 at best) maybe we\'ll get to see.
I agree on your stance with SI in the Belmont, it will be tough to consider him going 1 1/2. I knew when they were loading him for the Preak that I might as well toss my tickets out... washed out, nearly flipped over in the gate, and then a fourth place stalking wide trip. I didn\'t really LOVE his race spacing coming in to the race (especially stretching out to 1 3/16 and reacting in the wood to the big previous effort) but thought he was talented enough to place a bet and thought maybe he had enough time to recoup.
As far as my stance moving forward in the Belmont? This is a tough year for me... do to the fact I have been chasing that lifetime score, that so many of us desire from the triple crown run, for about 16 years now. I nearly had it in this year\'s Derby, if Danza traded places with chrome I would have walked with a 1/4 Mil, if Danza finished second I would have had a nice five figure score. It took me a week to shake it off and when I regrouped for the Preak I tried to convince myself to take another shot against Chrome. I made some bets tossing out CC in hopes of something usual happening, that maybe I could redeem myself. But in reality, the high cruising speed types usually come back to win the second leg going away, it\'s the closers that struggle there. That is part of why I took a shot with SI. Moving on to the belmont, I would love to here some strategies to bet against CC (at this point I am committed to play against, can\'t switch now). I am having trouble because I think it is going to take a distance specialist who is fully cranked to beat him and I think they will be all in to do it. The problem is, the horses who have shot do not figure to be a $75 horse like birdstone or Dtara. I don\'t see chrome running out of it so the verticals will be cheap and I am a historically bad horizontal player. Is there any hope to throw one last haymaker or should I just sit out and be a fan? Thanks, I appreciate all the great information from this site.
Toga Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I agree on your stance with SI in the Belmont, it
> will be tough to consider him going 1 1/2. I knew
> when they were loading him for the Preak that I
> might as well toss my tickets out... washed out,
> nearly flipped over in the gate, and then a fourth
> place stalking wide trip. I didn\'t really LOVE his
> race spacing coming in to the race (especially
> stretching out to 1 3/16 and reacting in the wood
> to the big previous effort) but thought he was
> talented enough to place a bet and thought maybe
> he had enough time to recoup.
Nail on the freakin head. I was with you.
> As far as my stance moving forward in the Belmont?
> This is a tough year for me... do to the fact I have
> been chasing that lifetime score, that so many of
> us desire from the triple crown run, for about 16
> years now. I nearly had it in this year\'s Derby,
> if Danza traded places with chrome I would have
> walked with a 1/4 Mil, if Danza finished second I
> would have had a nice five figure score. It took
> me a week to shake it off and when I regrouped for
> the Preak I tried to convince myself to take
> another shot against Chrome. I made some bets
> tossing out CC in hopes of something usual
> happening, that maybe I could redeem myself. But
> in reality, the high cruising speed types usually
> come back to win the second leg going away, it\'s
> the closers that struggle there. That is part of
> why I took a shot with SI. Moving on to the
> belmont, I would love to here some strategies to
> bet against CC (at this point I am committed to
> play against, can\'t switch now). I am having
> trouble because I think it is going to take a
> distance specialist who is fully cranked to beat
> him and I think they will be all in to do it. The
> problem is, the horses who have shot do not figure
> to be a $75 horse like birdstone or Dtara. I don\'t
> see chrome running out of it so the verticals will
> be cheap and I am a historically bad horizontal
> player. Is there any hope to throw one last
> haymaker or should I just sit out and be a fan?
> Thanks, I appreciate all the great information
> from this site.
One last haymaker is warranted. Let\'s see what the field looks like.
I hear you. I\'ve been so close on a few of these as well over the past few years.
To me, the thing to remember is that 3 races at three different distances at three different tracks in the space of five weeks is going to take its toll. It has to. Not to mention the prep races you have to run in to qualify. The points system means they almost have to race more now than in the past. No more winning the Delta Jackpot at 2 and having enough graded stakes earnings to get in.
I dont think you need a $75 horse to make a score in Belmont. If you play against Chrome and he runs out of EX, TRI or SUPER you will get paid. And if everyone who says they are coming shows up it should be a decent size field with quality to it. So i don\'t think Chrome could back up much or at all and win. He\'s going to have to bring his A race, again. Smarty couldn\'t do it. Big Brown couldn\'t do it. Silver Charm couldn\'t do it. Real Quiet. Funny Cide. I\'ll Have Another. War Emblem. Not to mention Spectacular Bid, and he was pretty special.
So far:
Chrome
Comm Curve
Samratt
Social Inclusion
Wicked Strong
Danza
Ride On Curlin
Kid Cruz
Tonalist
Intense Holiday
Commissioner
Bot, is that not the usual Belmont leftovers. VERY strong potential field. Now all we need is Untap. How cool would that be.
I\'m trying to figure out who D\'Tara is this time...
Plenty of new top Belmont winners the last six or seven years.
Covello\'s crush is certainly bred for it.
I think Covello owes me a dinner because of that horse, if he likes him in the Belmont I\'ll give him a chance to get it back if he is top 3.
I think in the last 10 years the only Preakness winner to win the Belmont was Alex.
8 of the last 10 years the winner didn\'t even run in the Preakness.
The Belmont winners have come from the Tesio, Barbaro, Dwyer.
Seems the best results have come from horses who ran out in the Derby, skipped the Preakness and ran back in the Derby.
There are other strong indicators, but I haven\'t compiled them yet.
One thing almost for sure.. Most of the time it hasn\'t been won by a horse with real good numbers. Several of them ran mostly 4\'s, some ran a top of only 3, and a couple ran 2\'s as tops. (Rags and Summer Bird the exceptions).
The early entrants in the Belmont look interesting. At the risk of being laughed at, I\'ll probably include that plow horse from yesterday, Kid Cruz in the mix, although I hesitate cause the majority of winners have been running 5th or better during the race.
At this point, everything is just a guess, just throwing this out there.
the owners sure sound sane, not sure the partner would attend Belmont
Coburn said he's not sure Perry will be at the Belmont, but he said: "I know a lot of people who can throw a good loop, and we'll drag his butt to Belmont if he doesn't want to show up on his own. He needs to be because he's missing out on a lot of fun. I can guarantee nothing, but I'll talk to him."
It should be a tough field. You are talking immortality here if he wins. The list of horses who couldn\'t get it done over the last 100 years is nearly as imposing as the ones who actually did. Nothing like this commands a Walkover no matter how passionate his Fan Base is.
I said last week this will be a good betting race. The only way Chrome can win is because he is more tactical. Not because he is that much faster. His heart, resolve and consistency has been tested. We will find out about the others.....20 more days to go!!
Silver Charm Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I said last week this will be a good betting race.
> The only way Chrome can win is because he is more
> tactical. Not because he is that much faster. His
> heart, resolve and consistency has been tested. We
> will find out about the others.....20 more days to
> go!!
Sometimes tactical speed is just as important in a racehorse as the almighty speed figure.
People still swear Easy Goer was faster than Sunday Silence. All I know is that he lost 3 out of 4 times to the horse with better tactical speed, and it took a home track advantage to win the Belmont.
This horse will never get his proper respect. Every race we hear how people are gonna make a score against him. We read ridiculous notions about dirt and other genius analysis. He got lucky. Not fast, just getting perfect trips. Doesn\'t matter that his tractability gets him those \"perfect\" trips, that he has earned those trips with his tactical speed. He\'s just fortunate everyone else gets into trouble but him.
Good luck beating him. Not only does he have to lose, you have to find the right horses to bet.
Its really killing a lot of people that a horse from California, a Cal bred at that, is one race away from the Triple Crown. I hope a lot of you have deep pockets, lots of money has been burned chasing your dream.
Ahh yes. Here comes the West Coast \"chip on my shoulder\" rant from P-Dub.
P-Dub, Quite frankly nobody gives a shit where Chrome is from and if you think so you are delusional. I\'ll bet against Derby winners in the Preakness, and horses going for the Triple Crown in the Belmont EVERYTIME. I don\'t give a f- where they are from. Why? Because they are underlays.
If he wins he wins, Wonderful. Doesn\'t change the fact that he\'s been an underlay in every Triple Crown race so far and will be so in the Belmont as well.
Save this \"No Respect\" nonsense for your Chrome Facebook fanboy page. We\'re here to make money. If an underlay gets us, oh well. It\'s happened before and it\'ll happen again. Part of the game.
Michael D. Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
>
> One last haymaker is warranted. Let\'s see what the
> field looks like.
What Michael? You need to start showing California-breds respect. Keep your wallet in your backpocket and bow down.
/sarc
That\'s where he should have been spotted. 3 week turn around not ideal.
sekrah Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> P-Dub, Quite frankly nobody gives a @#$%& where
> Chrome is from and if you think so you are
> delusional.
Then why was it mentioned on this board??
Who\'s delusional now, Mr self appointed genius??
Don\'t know what a jock change would do. SI made a run at the winner and hung. He reminds me of Verrazano.
sekrah Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Ahh yes. Here comes the West Coast \"chip on my
> shoulder\" rant from P-Dub.
>
> P-Dub, Quite frankly nobody gives a @#$%& where
> Chrome is from and if you think so you are
> delusional. I\'ll bet against Derby winners in the
> Preakness, and horses going for the Triple Crown
> in the Belmont EVERYTIME. I don\'t give a f- where
> they are from. Why? Because they are underlays.
>
> If he wins he wins, Wonderful. Doesn\'t change the
> fact that he\'s been an underlay in every Triple
> Crown race so far and will be so in the Belmont as
> well.
>
> Save this \"No Respect\" nonsense for your Chrome
> Facebook fanboy page. We\'re here to make money.
> If an underlay gets us, oh well. It\'s happened
> before and it\'ll happen again. Part of the game.
I don\'t know where you\'re from, nor do I care. Wasn\'t a \"west coast\" chip on my shoulder rant. You missed the point, thats what happens when you rage on like you just did. Calm down son, lighten up with the expletives, and try to do a better job comprehending a post.
My point was that there were plenty of excuses people gave as to why he won. Perfect trip, traffic for others. He\'s lucky, he\'s not much faster than others.
The fact that he has tactical speed, is tractable, is a big reason he has won the 1st 2 legs. That\'s not luck.
I gave an example of a \"slower\" horse, with the same type of tactical speed, that beat his supposed \"faster\" opponent.
I also never said betting against favorites is a bad thing, yet you went on and on about betting against underlays. Yet I was ranting??
You were in such a hurry to defend your \"big black bag filled to the top\" wager, that you got all lathered up.
I didn\'t bet a dime on the Preakness, because I didn\'t see the horse losing. I\'ll take a swing in the Belmont, against my beloved West Coast horse. I may have tears in my eyes as I place the wager, I\'m such a homer.
As Sgt Hulka said.....\"lighten up, Francis\".
Appreciate the feedback. I just watched Smarty\'s Belmont race. He ran his eyeballs out and still lost. How easy it is to forget. His running style is similar to CC and there does seem to be a solid field signed on for the race (thanks miff). You have to figure at least one of these will be fully cranked and there is at least reason to believe CC\'s legs will wobble the final furlong. I actually love the fact that SI is signed on to wear down CC. That makes this race very playable for me.
P-Dub,
I don\'t think you are delusional. I enjoy your contributions. The name callers, well, why bother.
Verrazano came to mind for me too. Agree with mjellish, think he is best suited for shorter distances.
Verrazano ran a -4 at 9F and destroyed (an admittedly weak) G1 field. I doubt Social Inclusion is capable of that, but guessing we will probably get a chance to see as the speed-favoring MTH surface makes perfect sense for him.
Interesting that the connections for Kid Cruz are turning him right back, no? I couldn\'t resist his pattern in the Preakness but he didn\'t run a lick. Any thoughts on Danza? I keyed him for 1st and 2nd in the Derby and just missed a serious score so naturally I thought he had excuses. But watching it back I am not so sure. Wicked Strong seems to be a logical contender, curve as well but you\'ll never get the price you did in the derby, don\'t know much about tonalist but hear there is some buzz around this horse. Should be a quality race, I will take a shot at Cali one last time.
Sekrah
He was not an underlay in the derby. 5-2 was fair for a horse that was faster than the competition and tractable.
1-2 in the Preakness was an underlay, despite him winning. The chances for a bad trip with much more speed in the field made 1-2 treacherous. He won. 1-2 shots often do.
He will face a very tough field in the Belmont. Hard to say if he will be an underlay. The blanket assumption that all favorites are underlaid just isn\'t true.
I think he goes off even money if Tonalist, wicked strong, danza and commanding curve all run. Seems a bit short with the logical wear and tear he likely has gone through inmthe first two races. By my eye he was on his belly late in the Preakness, all out. He held easily but it gave me a different feeling thsn the derby where it seemed he had more and Espinoza coasted home.
I guess we will see in 3 weeks
Your Superstar ran 3rd on the turf.....Still no superstar outside of Florida and Monmouth.
\"I actually love the fact that SI is signed on to wear down CC. That makes this race very playable for me\"
Toga,
The single perfect trip for CC in the Belmont is for him to stalk SI to the turn and swallow him while stealing off from some very strong finishers.SI gets hot and with crowd/heat will wilt imo. His last two routes saw him weaken late at much shorter distances.CC ran way from him rather easily in the Preakness.
Only question to me is where Tonalist will be given his new found early speed(wet track though)Rosario prone to take no prisoners early, great possible mystery early with very little pure gas and only a couple of stalkers(CC, Samraat,Tonslist?)
Best Belmont in years, and could be a great race if the talented ones run well.
Mike
I could also see Danza a little more forwardly placed than in the Derby where he was shuffled back.
I don\'t really like him for the race but I think at some point he\'ll be up near the front.
It will be interesting to see (if SI indeed is a Belmont entrant) if trainer
Azpurua gives him a workout of more than four furlongs. His pre race demeanor
certainly remains a concern.
Also of interest will be to see which of the runners coming from out of NY
(including CC) arrive early for acclimation over a Belmont track which is
unique in terms of configuration and surface.
Rumor that TGJB and Jake/Len lobbying for another 1-1/2 mile race to be run on
the Belmont card to aid them in coming up with a more accurate Belmont #.
@DRFGrening: Ron Sanchez said Social Inclusion 50-50 for Belmont. Will also be nominated to Met Mile and Woody Stephens, run same day.
OK, a visit to NYRA website answered a lot of questions:
CC to arrive in NYC on Tuesday.
The 1-1/2 mile Brooklyn Handicap, recently run the day before the Belmont, is
scheduled to be run on Belmont Day.
Hoping that Coup de Grace and Oliver Zip, who put on a great show in the Bay
Shore on Wood day, return in the Woody Stephens.
This is shaping up to be (understating) one of the great days in NY racing history
and I am inclined to take a page from the book of General George S. Patton, who
once humbly approached a higher authority hoping for acceptable weather.
Just wish Romans would run Medal Count.
Kid Cruz didn\'t get the same outside closer favoring track Saturday that he had gotten in the Tessio.