Speed figures are derived from a real hooves on the ground race
They are very useful to find talented horses that are being overlooked by other handicapping tools. I\'m amazed at the number of high priced winners that are posted here in the ROTW
However, like all derivatives, they have limitations. I see many discussions here about pattern interpretation or discussions about the quality of the horses in the Derby because the derived numbers were lower than expected
Beyer has an article in DRF today where he twists himself into a knot explaining why CC is the favorite, but is vulnerable due to a lower assigned Beyer number in the Derby
You have to cross check the derived data from real life. I saw the Derby winner trounce that large field with a turn of foot that is exceptional, not demonstrated by any other of the contenders. It was not a close race. Dont be surprised to see a similar demolition this time around
He crushed the Kentucky Derby field, and is in solid shape, with his foundation being so much more solid than the others- Social Inclusion is going in only his 4th race, and this is a greater distance than any of his earlier
California Chrome is a deserving favorite this Saturday. My greatest worry is a Barbaro like mishap taking him out.
Yeah, I saw that article. \"Howling\" about the track changing speed? Really, Andy? Howling?
I\'ll show you some howling.
Funny thing is he quotes Ragozin as also having it very slow. Andy actually broke the race out too, had it much closer to the way we did than to Jake.
Smithkent,
In the words of Harvey Pack who spoke of guys like you who simplified this game to \" this is easy status\" Have a good life!
Frank D
You get the wrong idea
this is the hardest game out there, and I am awed by the knowledge of the people who post here
sometimes the smartest people make it harder than it is. I suggest that\'s the case this time around for the Triple Crown races
CC looks to be an exceptional talent by every measure right now, especially in the one that counts-winning the horse race
Take your 3/5 and enjoy your life.
Better yet send me a private message and bet all you want on a delicatessen to win a pickle!
This game is about edges and not about \"talent\". If you know that CC is exceptional and everyone else knows it too, where\'s your \"Edge\"?
Bet on edges, bet on overlays, not talent. Horse talent and what you see on the track visually can be misleading, but the final win price is not. That\'s the math part of betting and people who bet 3-5s that look unbeatable on paper aren\'t going to fare very well in the long run as positive expectation wagering opportunities.
Also, the Preakness is a very tricky race to bet a favorite because of what\'s at stake. They\'re not going to rest this horse if the Derby knocked him out, if he has a minor hiccup in training, they\'re going to err on the side of racing him. You could be betting on a horse who shouldnt be racing, but you won\'t know until after the fact when all the excuses come in.
That last paragraph is important. There\'s a reason almost all the Derby starters over the last few years have skipped this race.
He didn\'t say he was pounding 3/5 shots. He also didn\'t get into a discussion about value, edges, etc.. Geezus relax guys.
He merely stated that he feels CC is a deserving favorite. That\'s it.
It\'s not as if he said CC needs to run on special dirt.
Agree with Paul, the guy was just saying cc looks like something special.
Speaking of which, thought I just got something while in the gym related to him having a cough - anyone here anything along those lines?
Found it....
http://espn.go.com/horse-racing/triplecrown2014/story/_/id/10936902/2014-triple-crown-california-chrome-treated-cough-blister
Well, you can turn that around and look at it differently. One big thing about CC that is different than the competition is race experience and fitness
Since he came from the lower ranks as far as breeding goes, the money invested in him was far less. He was not that dominant till he got some races under his belt, and got a quality jockey
He is more similar to the old style training up to his 3 year old season, since the owners had less $$ to lose in racing him. So often the modern training is focused on avoiding injury to an expensive animal rather than getting him optimally fit for the grueling TC run
Rather than think of his additional races as detrimental, maybe this will be to his advantage
The thing I love about racing is you get to endlessly speculate, and then see the results on the track...
The thing I like is the horses go off different odds.
Whether or not CC is the real deal the Triple Crown needs to be restructured.It seems that two weeks then three weeks is simply too much to ask of thoroughbreds these days. Horse racing needs another TC champion and the first Saturdays of May June and July would certainly help.
Besides injury, what would it take for the winner to actually skip this race? Then maybe they\'d seriously address this arcane format. You just need one trainer and one owner(s), one of these years hopefully.
Off the top of my head, it\'s happened twice. Gato Del Sol (trainer didn\'t think it was in the best interest of the horse), and Spend A Buck (they went chasing after a bigger purse in the Jersey Derby).
Ken
The Jersey Derby lure I remember. Gato Del Sol, I didn\'t realize was for the best interest of the horse. Guess it will take more than one trainer and owner(s).
I have to weigh in on this often debated spring topic. Common sense, logic and evolution all point to better spacing between the Triple Crown races. Many have semi lobbied for a change in format but the traditionalist still rule.
TGJB says horses run faster today via track composition and other assorted factors. There is no doubt that the drug laden (mostly legal), speed bred for a mile, rushed to the races and for quick return via sale type of breeding we have done in North America for the past 30 years has significantly diminished the product. Factor in most of our top stallions whom were classically bred have gone to Europe, Japan and the middle east.
So what are we left with? Weak sprinters who try to stretch their speed to classic distances and end up not finishing their 3 yr old seasons; heck half of the top ones never get to the Derby in one piece!!!!
One can make a great case for the change in spacing between classic events.
BUT:
Sir Barton,Gallant Fox, Omaha, War Admiral, Whirlaway, Count Fleet, Assult, Citation, Secretariat, Seattle Slew and Affirmed all may beg to differ and I\'m not a big fan of an asterisk!!!!!
Frank D.
FrankD. Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I have to weigh in on this often debated spring
> topic. Common sense, logic and evolution all point
> to better spacing between the Triple Crown races.
> Many have semi lobbied for a change in format but
> the traditionalist still rule.
>
> TGJB says horses run faster today via track
> composition and other assorted factors. There is
> no doubt that the drug laden (mostly legal), speed
> bred for a mile, rushed to the races and for quick
> return via sale type of breeding we have done in
> North America for the past 30 years has
> significantly diminished the product. Factor in
> most of our top stallions whom were classically
> bred have gone to Europe, Japan and the middle
> east.
>
> So what are we left with? Weak sprinters who try
> to stretch their speed to classic distances and
> end up not finishing their 3 yr old seasons; heck
> half of the top ones never get to the Derby in one
> piece!!!!
>
> One can make a great case for the change in
> spacing between classic events.
> BUT:
> Sir Barton,Gallant Fox, Omaha, War Admiral,
> Whirlaway, Count Fleet, Assult, Citation,
> Secretariat, Seattle Slew and Affirmed all may beg
> to differ and I\'m not a big fan of an
> asterisk!!!!!
>
> Frank D.
If we believe the numbers, that horses are running much faster, then something must be done.
Look at the number of pitching injuries over the last 3 years. Elbows are being shredded. The number of guys throwing 95+ is far more than it has ever been. Combine that with the torque of throwing sliders and other stressful pitches, and its no surprise to see the rise in injuries.
Horses, like pitcher\'s arms, are not built for this. The added stress takes its toll.
I agree with your last sentence. However there are many instances of unofficial asterisks. Babe Ruth\'s numbers have an asterisk, the late 90\'s HR records have them too. They may be unofficial, but the public knows better.
Spacing the TC will be good for a variety of reasons. Once changed, and its only a matter of time before it is, fans will understand the difference between eras.
Gato\'s trainer at the time, Eddie Gregson, was a completely different type of trainer. He insisted on doing things his way, and if the owner complained, he\'d fire them and tell them to take their horses elsewhere. Only trainer I\'ve ever heard of that fired owners.
Product dilution and traditionalism understood. I\'m just going more in the direction that the now annual 20 horse derby field takes more of a toll on the winner than in the years of lore. Combine that with the trainers that point for the Belmont and it becomes quite difficult in my mind to envision a scenario where we see a TC winner on an even once every decade basis, not even considering the current drought.