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General Category => Ask the Experts => Topic started by: Silver Charm on May 15, 2014, 08:35:18 AM

Title: Wait and See on the Weather
Post by: Silver Charm on May 15, 2014, 08:35:18 AM
80% chance of rain in Florida today. It didn\'t rain (a little) and doesnt look like it will much either. No doubt there is front of rain that is moving slowly and more from the south to the northeast instead of the usual west to east. How this hits Baltimore, moves through and at what intensity level I think is all questionable. I mean seriously we had projections of 1.75 inches of rain and it didn\'t. This may not be as dire as the original Friday forecast was. Let hope so because the Card is pretty good and for Saturday all those races need to stay on the Turf....including other locations like Mth and Bel

http://www.weather.gov/Radar
Title: Re: Wait and See on the Weather
Post by: TreadHead on May 15, 2014, 09:03:14 AM
Silver, the bulk of the rain in that system was not coming from the south, it came from the midwest and dumped plenty of rain on us the last 24 hours.  There are both flash flood and coastal flooding watches for Baltimore tomorrow, and I doubt they would issue those things lightly.

Issued by The National Weather Service
Baltimore/Washington, MD
Thu, May 15, 2014, 10:13 AM EDT

... FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR
* PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MARYLAND... NORTHERN MARYLAND AND SOUTHERN MARYLAND... INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS... IN CENTRAL MARYLAND... ANNE ARUNDEL AND PRINCE GEORGES. IN NORTHERN MARYLAND... HARFORD... NORTHERN BALTIMORE AND SOUTHERN BALTIMORE. IN SOUTHERN MARYLAND... CHARLES.
* FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
* SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED... WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THIS AMOUNT OF RAINFALL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING... ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS AND ALONG SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.
YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.
&&
Title: Re: Wait and See on the Weather
Post by: jerry on May 15, 2014, 09:16:21 AM
Right. Black Eyed Susan Day will be a complete wash out. Hopeful rain ending early Friday night and Saturday breezes keep some of those races on the turf.
Title: Re: Wait and See on the Weather
Post by: TreadHead on May 15, 2014, 09:26:43 AM
FWIW the chance of rain tonight and tomorrow is now 100% there
Title: Re: Wait and See on the Weather
Post by: richiebee on May 15, 2014, 09:41:35 AM
The impolitic thing to say would be to go to Ragozin where they have it sunny and
clear, Vito says he doesn\'t care where they get the information and Ken Sherman has links to 30 weather related articles.
Title: Re: Wait and See on the Weather
Post by: TGJB on May 15, 2014, 09:42:16 AM
Nice.
Title: Re: Wait and See on the Weather
Post by: Michael D. on May 15, 2014, 10:32:56 AM
if we don\'t hear back from Silver Charm it\'s because a monsoon just hit south Fla and he might not even be alive.
Title: Re: Wait and See on the Weather
Post by: vp612 on May 15, 2014, 11:00:51 AM
Richiebee,don\'t ever think I am stupid because you are making a very big mistake.
Title: Re: Wait and See on the Weather
Post by: Silver Charm on May 15, 2014, 11:09:47 AM
You guys are brutal. Until you see Jim Cantore of The Weather Channel standing in knee deep water in Annapolis with a rain coat hoody on and a microphone in his hand its not \"Official\".

Just now per The Weather Channel they are backing off a little. 5,000 foot winds will calm the storms violence in the only place we care about, Baltimore. There will be some rain but not a holocaust. Areas south like Raleigh getting hit pretty good now. 15 minutes of rain or 15 hours of rain still count as 100% chance it rained. And they are indicating it may be cleared out and further north by the morning.

Predicting a \"Good\" Track for the Pimlico Special not Swamp.;-)
Title: Re: Wait and See on the Weather
Post by: TGJB on May 15, 2014, 11:11:06 AM
He didn\'t say you are stupid, he\'s basically quoting you. You have made it clear you take Jake figures at face value whether they make sense or not and ask no questions. If I\'m wrong about that show me.
Title: Re: Wait and See on the Weather
Post by: richiebee on May 15, 2014, 11:14:11 AM
Vito, I was joking. How can I call you \"stupid\" when I think you are batting one
thousand on this board?

I can outstupid anyone on either board so I can\'t cast the first stone anyway.

Good luck on Saturday, sorry you took the comment the wrong way.
Title: Re: Wait and See on the Weather
Post by: richiebee on May 15, 2014, 11:22:48 AM
Silver I love your optimism. You kind of remind me of the commercial which shows
two guys on the porch of a golf clubhouse during a downpour. They keep saying
stuff like \"its letting up\" or \"the sky is getting brighter over there\".

Does your good track/Pimlico Special prediction mean there is any chance for turf
racing Friday?
Title: Re: Wait and See on the Weather
Post by: richiebee on May 15, 2014, 11:27:07 AM
According to Accuweather there is now a gale warning in effect from 6PM until
midnight Friday. I guess this only matters if you are having your pre Preakness
party near the water.
Title: Re: Wait and See on the Weather
Post by: vp612 on May 15, 2014, 11:27:14 AM
No problem.
Title: Re: Wait and See on the Weather
Post by: vp612 on May 15, 2014, 11:29:17 AM
You are the one who is saying they don\'t make sense.I use them because I believe they give ME the best chance to win.
Title: Re: Wait and See on the Weather
Post by: TGJB on May 15, 2014, 11:36:38 AM
Yes, their Derby numbers make perfect sense and using them will give you the best chance to win. Thanks for stopping by.
Title: Re: Wait and See on the Weather
Post by: vp612 on May 15, 2014, 11:38:52 AM
Time will tell mr. pair-up.
Title: Re: Wait and See on the Weather
Post by: TGJB on May 15, 2014, 11:40:20 AM
Time has told.
Title: Re: Wait and See on the Weather
Post by: touchgold on May 15, 2014, 11:55:11 AM
well, it will be interesting to see...one horse in preakness, like the derby, looks awful on sheets, and good chance on tgs....round one was a tko for tg.
Title: Re: Wait and See on the Weather
Post by: FrankD. on May 15, 2014, 11:58:35 AM
Reminds me of the long ago starter at a local golf course when someone called and we were all belled up to the bar! He said come on our it\'s sort of of dry rain.

It\'s all about perception!

Frank D.
Title: Re: Wait and See on the Weather
Post by: Silver Charm on May 15, 2014, 12:00:59 PM
Ritchie I went to the Doctor yesterday and he told me I have \"Good news\" and \"Bad news\" for you. I said wow let hear me the \"Bad News\" first. He told you are going to die.....I responded quizzically and there is Good News? He said, Yes I just didn\'t say when.....

I will stick to what I said earlier that its Wait and See. They are saying the rain will hit the DC area between 7-9PM and there will be scattered thunderstorms. What cells and what bands go through where is a guess.
Title: Re: Wait and See on the Weather
Post by: TMW on May 15, 2014, 12:01:34 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YEzj1B-E6ZI

That may mean the Preakness Annual Toilet Run will be even more treacherous this year. Oh to be young again... and oh so stupid...
Title: Re: Wait and See on the Weather
Post by: TGJB on May 15, 2014, 12:03:33 PM
I have a pretty good idea who that has to be, and why. Andy\'s got him slow too.
Title: Re: Wait and See on the Weather
Post by: TreadHead on May 16, 2014, 05:15:20 AM
I\'m gonna go ahead and score this one for the weatherman.
Title: Re: Wait and See on the Weather
Post by: Silver Charm on May 16, 2014, 06:04:49 AM
No surprise they are Off the Turf.....Possible Sunshine expected by 2PM with light rain stopping by 10:30. Only .71 inches of rain report by some Services. Each area could be different. Track will be \"Good\" by Pimlico Special as I said yesterday and Tomorrow will be fast and \"Good Turf\".    

http://www.weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/graph/USMD0018?par=yahoo&site=www.yahoo.com&promo=top&cm_ven=Yahoo&cm_cat=www.yahoo.com&cm_pla=forecastpage&cm_ite=Wx-hbh
Title: Re: Wait and See on the Weather
Post by: jerry on May 16, 2014, 07:15:00 AM
Any chance you guys could air this dispute privately? It\'s of no use to me.
Title: Re: Wait and See on the Weather
Post by: TreadHead on May 16, 2014, 07:31:45 AM
Is it safe to assume they put a ton of extra sand in the track?  Saw a picture on twitter where they appeared to be doing that prior to the storms hitting.  Would that mean a slower, tiring track if indeed it is on it\'s way to drying out by the end of the day?
Title: Re: Wait and See on the Weather
Post by: jerry on May 16, 2014, 09:20:51 AM
Storm\'s past. Rain has stopped as of 12:00 noon. Skies brightening. Total rainfall past 24hrs. 1.90\".