Firstly, you have to recognize which tracks you have insight into and which you don\'t. I consider myself an \"A\" handicapper at Saratoga, a \"B\" handicapper at Belmont and a \"C\" or \"D\" handicapper at Aqueduct, depending. But I love this race. I\'ll never forgot Easy Goers Gotham, how effortlessly he won and how large the winning margin was, albeit over less than top class horses. I didn\'t believe the time for the race, but back to reality.
Some random observations on the Gotham which looks to be run on a wet and perhaps deep track. There is plenty of quality speed and some quality stamina so pace will have to be factored along with any track bias that may manifest itself:
Deputy Storm - Perhaps the fastest of the fast and has been a committed front runner and has liked off surfaces. He couldn\'t handle Limehouse last who caught his wicked speed on torrid sprint day. He closed in 13:62
Eddington - Has run two good ones since adding blinkers. He ran well on the Main, though he may have bled that day. Final work at GP was encouraging. May not have blinding speed but appears to have tactical speed.
Wars Prospect - was quitting at 6marks, easiest kind of winner at 8 and 70 yards. Working very well. Not a prep for him, but a class issue, especially if he doesn\'t get the lead he\'s use to having. But when he jumped out of the gate up by 7 last it may be a matter of how much faster he could have run.
Pomeroy - When I analyzed this race once over, my thoughts were \"Find the horse that can beat Limehouse and you have the winner\". This horse beat Limehouse. The back figs are two year old numbers. He\'s in all likelihood faster now. He has a good off track record. He\'s won at a mile. He\'s first Lasix and first time blinkers and he has shown the ability to rate from just off the pace. Its an issue of intent. What is the trainer really trying to do with this horse? After the disqualification last, he shipped to Santa Anita in September. Why? He never raced there. I see enough talent to believe he was bound for the Breeders Cup Juvenile and something set him back. (Caveat: Trainer may be SA based. I don\'t know) The trainer has just stated the following:
\"Biancone says he doesn\'t believe he has Pomeroy as cranked for this year\'s Gotham as he had Mayakovsky for the one in 2002.
\"He\'s well enough to run, he\'s not geared up,\" Biancone said. \"As long as I run a good first race of the year, I\'ll be happy.\"
Such is life.
Saratoga County - derby1592\'s fine Hutchenson selection. Could he have beat Limehouse? No off track form, but perhaps bred to handle it. Will probably be coming at the end, the question may be how much work will he have to do? The jock is scalding.
Redskin Warrior - The easiest kind of winner last. Competitive Speed but has rated off early pace of races. Has liked the Main. The only entrant apparently working at and stabled at the track. Don\'t recognize the sale. I suspect its a two year old in training sale and he\'s got some conformation blemishes somewhere.
Rockhewn - Beaten by War\'s Prospect last but may have bled. Has a closers line. This race is also not a prep for him, but then only Eddington and Pomeroy look like preppers.
Quick Action - One of four stakes winners in the field. You have to wonder how he got his name? Stabled nearby, has liked the main. Has run well on off and tiring tracks. Wayne is 4 for 91, This horse has 25% of those wins. He\'s very fast and to my mind the outside post is an advantage in this one. A shot of the old Lukas 8 mark mojo?
There that simplifies it doesn\'t it? Aren\'t you glad you read this post?...lol
Helluva Race
Your in the T-Graph boys backyard here. They know the subtleties of the Aqueduct Tracks and how weather affects them. Their figs are gonna reflect that expertise. Big Home Court Edge T-Graph. (Lay the points)
Well the Lane\'s End came up an interesting race. As TGJB pointed out, it appears Zito is micro managing his horses efforts towards May 1st tops, so despite an apparent class edge it may be that \"The Bird\" is not fully geared for this. Zito\'s others don\'t appear to have been. You can anticipate an off track and Bird relished the one he caught at the Spa. However, he catches the one hole here and hes gonna have to maintain position early or get goo kicked in his face. (assuming the track comes up goo which is the current projection) I don\'t think Bailey is gonna allow the goo scenario, so in all likelihood its gonna be a closer to the pace effort than it has been for him and in that regard one has to handicap how that will impact the outcome. If he alters somewhat his pace style, maintains position and wins on an off track that will certainly be overcoming adversity and validate his ranking in this crop.
CtC
Post Edited (03-19-04 11:09)
CtC--
Just an observation from watching many Gothams over the years. The race is usually dominated by the early speed. This may be due to the fact that most of the 3yos at this time have not yet matured to the point where thay can overcome spotting 3 or more lenghths around a one-turn mile. They chase fast fractions and then run evenly or fall back. I\'ve seen many a 3yo go/press sub :45 fractions, drift in the stretch and still win or hold second.
ONE MORE THING: We\'ve all seen this before; D. Wayne using a BS prep (The San Rafael) for HASSLEFREE...now the move to 2 turns....lone speed?? (perhaps SILVER MINISTER sits off) on a track that normally favors early types. Who knows? even second gets one a nifty exacta payoff.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
Now that you have introduced your new Figure Based Trainer Stats I\'m curious if you have considered coming up with a statistical category such as Percentage of New Tops in Kentucky.
Anyone who followed Zito last fall in Kentucky knows that almost everything he sent out was at or near a NEW TOP.
Could be the zinc in the Bluegrass who knows.
Re: Gotham, I appreciate your \"speed insight\" I\'m really not sure how I\'m gonna bet it yet, I think the earlier races will reveal what I do. The only problem with considering those early results is that for the most part they appear very cheap. Does anyone have a recollection on how the 1990 Gotham played out in regard to pace? It was won by Thirty Six Red with Senor Pete second. Trained respectively by Zito and Scotty Schulhofer. Senor Pete had won the Grade I Futurity as a sophomore. Red had only won maiden to that point. I remember Durkin and Axehelm partying like drunken sailors. They gave out the perfecta pre race. It returned over 200 is my recollection. Don\'t ask me why it popped into my head, but it did...lol
I also appreciate your Hasslefree insight and I\'ve been eyeballing his P.P.\'s with suspicion, especially since the poor efforts are sandwiched around that layoff. To my eye there is going to be an interesting pace scenario with Birdstone, Hippocrates, Hasslefree, Stolen Time, Silver Minister and Sinister G. How it shakes out could determine the exotics. But I think you are right if Hasslefree wants the lead, it is probably his for the taking. The one undeniable fact is that every time Hasslefree has run into a horse that could hoof it he has caved, but he hasn\'t been able to shake free in those races. The question is do we have that kind here to dissuade him? Then theres the distance factor to consider. I\'m worried about him. He could have the outright lead and that could be very dangerous depending on the track. Interesting race Joe.
CtC
Post Edited (03-19-04 17:21)
I agree Joe B.\'s observation that the Gotham typically is won on the front end; however, I think there is a potential for a pace meltdown in this one, which I think could set it up for Eddington, Saratoga County.
At the morning line, neither is a good bet but given all the hype around Eddington and a few others in this race, I have to believe that Saratoga County will go off at well above his morning line of 5/1. I actually expect double digit odds, which would make him a possible key in here.
In all deference to the the excellent TG trackman at GP, I would rate SC\'s last as more like an OP++ than and OP- so I don\'t think he is quite as slow coming in as his last fig would indicate. He lost all chance at the start spotting the entire field 10-15 lengths right out of the gate. He is not a plodder and if he breaks alertly this time he is definitely capable of one of those big April jump-ups we sometimes see in the better three year olds in races like this.
Rockhewn is also an interesting longshot bomb to throw into the exotics. He is very slow coming in but will benefit from the likely hot pace and he has a very explosive looking line. He also gets the first juice and his trainer has gotten a new top 6 out of 11 times 1L. If there is a pace meltdown, he may just get up for a piece of it late and trigger some nice exotics.
Of course, with my luck, Deupty Storm will jump out to an easy lead and wire the field but that\'s racing.
Good luck to all.
Chris
P.S. I sure like the special \"extra\" trainer stats we get with the ROTW. I wish we got them for all races.
Here is my take on the ROTW.
DEPUTY STORM – Earned a 3-1/2 in his 3 yr old debut in his lat start going 7F (the perfect distance prep for a 1-turn mile) for PLETCHER. The 3rd fastest horse coming into the race – will be on the engine coming out of PP #1. The main danger to EDDINGTON. 4/1 or longer.
EDDINGTON – Has a strong profile. After regressing in his 2nd start, this one follow through with a new top - 5-1/2 (previous top was a 6) in his next race. Took it to a new level with a 1-3/4 (coming off the 5-1/2) in his last start. A Potential star is in the making. It would have made better sense to go straight to the Wood Memorial if Triple Crown plans are in the future for this one. Definitely the one to beat! 8/5 or longer!
WAR PROSPECT – Yet to reproduce anything close to the 4 he earned on November 7th of last year. Also, recent numbers are dreadful. In addition, the last race was simply a gift from Aqueduct's inner-track since speed dominated the card that day. Pass!
POMEROY – Connections have been weak on the West Coast lately. This one is several lengths slower than several in here. Also, the fact that the layoff was a result of the events that led to the BO reference in his last race makes this one a bet against. Pass!
SARATOGA COUNTRY – 3yr #s are an improvement from last year, but still several lengths slower than the main contenders. Nevertheless, spots a healthy pattern and his eligible to step it up a notch and find himself in the money. Another positive sign is that this one also exit a 7F race, which is the perfect distance prep for a 1-turn mile. Belongs in the exotics. Take a flyer at 8/1 or longer.
REDSKIN WARRIOR – This one displayed enough talent in his 2nd and 3rd starts last year that were very encouraging. However, the race on October 30th resulted in this one being vanned off – which was a major concern going into his 3 yr old debut (last start). This one is certainly talented. The last race number – 1 is an outstanding number, but the likelihood that this one will regress is strong. Pass!
ROCKHEWN – Simply too slow. PASS!
QUICK ACTION – Best number was earned over a wet track, which I am guessing was over a beach-like surface. Thus the jump to 4-1/2. Pass!
From what I read, RW was vanned off because of torn skin off both front fetlocks, so it may have been precautionary. He did win that race pretty easily & based on his race & works this yr seems completely recovered. Of more concern to me is the fact that the track is listed as muddy & sealed. RS\'s off track breeding is nothing special & the question of how he will react to the surface, coupled with the distance question, makes him a questionable bet at low odds. Good Luck