I\'m curious as the importance the TG crowd used to make their final wagering decision on the Derby. In other words, what percentages did you attach to the importance of the following factors in helping you decide which horse(s) you\'d play.
1. TG Data
2. TG Pattern into the Derby
3. TG Seminar
4. CD track bias (perceived or considered)
5. CD Morning Line Odds, or Expected Post Time Odds
6. Workout reports from Welsch, or others with a strong reputation
7. Watching Prep Replays
8. Final 2 Prep Race performances of the entrants
9. Trainers performances in prior Derby efforts
10. Enhanced testing program
11. Opinions expressed on Ask the Experts contributors
12. Other sources (these can remain unnamed if you like)
Anybody up to something like this? I think it will be interesting to see the cross-section of the main/least reasons how presumed good players would have arrived at the decision to put their money down. I haven\'t listed these in my personal order I just tried to include what should be most of the reasons that are used in the run up to the Derby.
If anyone likes, I\'ll be glad to add my percentages once a few people reply to this survey. I\'m mindful everyone will be different.
Thanks
1. Kerry Thomas: The horses he likes run well and the horses he doesn\'t don\'t. Been that way for 4 years. With 18-20 horse fields, the Derby is at least as much mental as physical. Only Thomas taps into that.
2. Workout reports from Bruno De Julio. Figs mean squat if a horse isn\'t physically capable of reproducing those figs on the 1st Sat. in May. De Julio is the best out there at judging current condition.
3. Thoro-Graph pattern, for reasons that need no elaboration here.
4. BRIS pace figures. They identify horses who can run fast early and fast enough late. That\'s what it takes to win most Derbys.
5. Post position. Saving ground is hugely important in the Derby. Some horses can overcome a bad post or ground-hemorrhaging drive, but most can\'t. A genuine contender moves up if he draws a post that lends itself to saving ground.
I don\'t worry about value in the Derby. Unless you\'re a old-timey WPS bettor, almost anything has value if bet correctly. E.g., a $340 exacta with a heavy favorite (California Chrome) over a very plausible longshot (Commanding Curve).
I don\'t claim to be good, but there are a lot of factors. Some are:
1. TG Seminar
2. Bruno De Julio workout reports
3. Ask the Experts
4. Post Position
5. Trainer/Jockey
6. Weather
1.TG numbers, tops, pairs, moving forward, etc.
2. How the horse looks on the track, how they handle the crowd, gate, etc.
3. TG numbers.
Once I observed CC on the track and calm. I pounded(3k) him. Keyed him with 5 $100 exacta on top and 5 $200 exacta second. CCurve was one of the 5. I used two of the 4 JR gave out and three of my own. All were 25/1 or better. If CC looks good on the track @ PIMLICO, he will cruize. Belmont will be a different story.
Just curious. What landed you on Commanding Curve -- 1,2,3, 4 or 5?
On his sheet he improved every race, never going back. JB clearly pointed that out in his analysis. Horses moving forward with time to recover are dangerous.
Thanks. I wasn\'t clear with my question as it was meant for Vagrant. I would like to know how his 1,2,4 or 5 assisted him in selecting Commanding Curve.
Does anyone care about the odds (value) of the horse?
boston Wrote:
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> Does anyone care about the odds (value) of the
> horse?
You can turn a horse that is perceived as no value in the win pool, into value playing verticals.
I got on Commanding Curve by 3 sources
This Forum the Derby seminar,Bruno and Haskin\'s blog..
Welsh workout reports have been key for me.
Watching race Replays are big as well..
Brisnet and the drf forms I combine,still learning how to read the sheets properly.
1, 2 and 3. Bruno\'s huge thumbs up was probably the key, but it\'s all of a piece. Bruno also liked Tapiture. No thanks. He didn\'t fit according to speed/pattern (TG) or mentality (Thomas).
vagrant Wrote:
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> 1, 2 and 3. Bruno\'s huge thumbs up was probably
> the key, but it\'s all of a piece. Bruno also liked
> Tapiture. No thanks. He didn\'t fit according to
> speed/pattern (TG) or mentality (Thomas).
So...if I am getting this straight, we need to consult
5 different expert sources of information, then if those
guys are in conflict (in part or whole), decide whose
advice / numbers / tenets trump the other guys?
Do I have it about right?
(Please be careful, my head is about ready to explode...
FFS, don\'t tell me the final arbiter is CLASS.)
Relax, Rick.
TGJB Wrote:
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> Relax, Rick.
I love the Forum, JB, but it lacks those
\"emoticon\" thingys...my last post needed
the \"tongue-in-cheek\" symbol. Maybe a
wink or two. ;)
These guys are trying to split the Derby
Handicapping Atom. It\'s hilarious to me,
that\'s all.
Rick B.,
The point I was trying to make when I started the topic was what factors the guys use to arrive at the decision to put their money down.
People that rely strictly TG numbers will take their lumps some years, other years they will do quite well. Same for all the other factors that are being mentioned.
Its no different than looking at a prospectus, or a stock offering or even the stats at the bottom of the horse in the DRF. People will attach different levels of importance to the different data being analyzed.
Some guys want a dividend, others are concerned with profit and loss or research and development and base their decisions on some of those things.
Using the TG figures, reputable workout reporters, the expected post time odds, post position and numerous other things are all parts of the equation.
I\'ve been fortunate to make large amounts of money in 4 of the last 5 Derby\'s, so I\'m doing something right.
But is there ONE thing that makes me decide on my Derby wager? No. Its a combination of information that I attach certain levels of value to, and then I bet my opinion.
In a past year if I found myself relying on an aspect of data that was no longer producing, I junked it and relied on past, proven results.
I won\'t be able to respond for a bit, heading to a track meet, but please take my response as sincere and not sarcastic.
I don\'t claim to be an intellectual like some posters, I\'m just go with what has worked for me in the past.
Have a good one.
smalltimer Wrote:
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> Rick B.,
> The point I was trying to make when I started the
> topic was what factors the guys use to arrive at
> the decision to put their money down.
> I don\'t claim to be an intellectual like some
> posters, I\'m just go with what has worked for me
> in the past. Have a good one.
Fair enough, and whatever is working for you, great.
Hope when you read this later you have money
spilling out of all of your pockets.
I just find it funny sometimes when folks bring so
many factors into the equation, which I believe (in
most cases) just gives you even more opportunities
to make a mistake. Stick to one or two things that
work, and ALWAYS make sure the value is there.
I admit to being far more casual about the Derby than I
used to be; thanks to Invisible Ink (2001 Derby
runner-up at 55-1), I\'m ahead on this race for life.
Being more casual about the Derby allowed me to be
swayed by TG on Commanding Curve (I was neutral on him,
would have left him off), and I did OK on the race even
though my key horse (Chitu) stunk it up.
Well, if you bet Chitu you weren\'t just betting the fastest horse.
I\'m the guy who makes the figures, and my Derby analysis alone indicates how many other things I look at-- spacing, pedigree, patterns, physicals (unfortunately in this case). And there are a myriad of other things I\'ve brought up in ROTW-- trainer patterns, trainer intent, etc.
When the lawyer for the other side cross examined me during the trial for the Rachel thing he asked me, all you really look at is how fast they are, right? Trying to minimize my input in the buy. I had a good time with that, went on for quite a while.
TGJB Wrote:
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> Well, if you bet Chitu you weren\'t just betting
> the fastest horse.
Correct.
I rarely make the fastest horse my key horse...
hardly ever any value in it. If Chitu just hits the
ticket, anywhere, I make $15 - $20K on the race.
As tight as the CD strip was last Saturday, and with
Baffert horses running well in the earlier races...man,
I was feeling like a genius with that selection.
Until the 1/8th pole...
if you watched the louisiana derby and the way CC was wacked out of the gate and still hit the Board and read the TG\'s he was an obvious long shot include. Other facors may also have helped but those two sealed the deal for me.
Rick B.,
Thank you for the comments. Actually I went to a track meet for my grandson and have yet to place a wager at that venue.
Like yourself with your outstanding profit on Invisible Ink, I was able to score a huge profit by playing Giacomo on top in the \'05 Derby. So you and I are both members of the \"ahead of the Derby for life\" club.
There is always something to be learned by having good exchanges on this board. I include you among that group.
I enjoyed a nice Derby this year, next year I may get my rear-end handed to me.
Good luck guy!
Bet any way you want, bro. Consult as few or as many experts as you please. I shared my way.
Add great pattern and good works! I\'m a bit ashamed I didn\'t hit it harder but still thought Chrome would have trip issues. No such luck. Hoping he cruises next weekend so I can take out a 2nd mortgage against Chrome in the Belmont!